Are the OSS statistics completely false ?

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Newton

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We've all heard about the One Shot Stop (OSS) statistics, Marshall and Sanow's work, right ?

Top dog in all the world is the Remington Golden Sabre 165 grain .40S&W at 95%, second is the Federal 155 grain Hydrashock at 94% etc etc.

The question is simple, are they false, are they partially true but manipulated ?

I confess to placing a lot of faith in them in the past, but I'm not so sure anymore. They seem to indicate that JHPs are better in ANY caliber than FMJ, even .25ACP, is that true.

Anyone know the truth.
 
The truth is that shot placement is the most important factor in OSS's. That said you have to carry what you have the most faith in. Mindset will get you a long way in a gunfight and having confidence in your equipment is very important.
 
No, they're not completely false. The Facklerites make all sorts of claims that M&S's data is statistically invalid, etc. However, being an LEO myself, I have access to a bunch of after-action reports, and guess what? The rounds M&S recommend usually do rather better in actual shootings than other rounds! This can't be tested statistically, of course, but I find their recommendations are a good basis to work with.

Personally, I look for a round that is judged to be good by both Fackler and M&S. If both sides of the issue like it, there must be something right! :D
 
Remember, there are just too many variables involved to calculate, to a percentile, the odds that a human being will be incapacitated with one shot. There are six billion of us, after all, each different. You've got to take into account:

-The constitution of the person
-The mindset of the person
-Where the bullet enters
-Its course/trajectory inside the body
-How deep it penetrates
-what it hits along the way
-whether or not it exits, and if so, where it exits
-blood loss
-shock
-damage from hydrostatic shock/shattered bone/"splash effect"

You show me a formula that takes all of these into account, and we'll start calculating OSS percentages.
 
Shot placement excuse

I always hear "shot placement", when someone is defending a particular, usually lesser caliber. I agree shot placement is paramount, but I have to believe a similarily placed .45 ACP trumps a .22 lr every time. It seems all this shot placement talk assumes the larger caliber will have poorer placement.
 
I do not believe the results are false, but I do think they are flawed in several ways, not the least of which is that multiple hits are totally discounted. This artificially inflates the real OSS percentage, which is more likely about half or a third of the test results. Is anybody going to shoot someone once, then stand there waiting for him to fall? Not likely. Still, it is a good attempt to introduce at least some scientific methods (e.g., requiring full documentation from police and hospital/autopsy reports), instead of purely anecdotal reports, which are often full of gunshop commando hokum. Bottom line: don't choose a gun or load based on small differences between OSS percentages. Choose it instead for reliability and accuracy, then concentrate on improving your shooting ability. The best load in the world will not help a bit if it does not hit the target!
 
I've never had much choice in ammunition honestly. My dept tells us what to use for both on duty and off duty carry. I've read a variety of information from marshall\sanow, fackler, etc, etc. I'm not sure I'd say that the marshall\sanow info is totally false, but it doesn't quite seem to add up very well from a scientific standpoint. Not sure exactly what that means though. We've had several officer involved shootings with our current duty load, the 180grn Gold Dot in .40cal. And it always did its job with good shot placement, i.e. center mass\head, etc. I've read a few places that said that load didn't work well at all? I guess everyone's info may vary some.
 
You show me a formula that takes all of these into account,
Simple:
Higher velocity = flatter trajectory/more momentum.
Higher sectional density = deeper penetration.
Greater frontal area = more damage.

Hard part is making them all work together instead of fighting each other.
 
My take....

One day, Evan Marshall went looking for apples, and he found quite a few… then he came out and told everyone… "There are red apples, green apples and yellow apples."

Martin Fackler saw Evan's report on apples and said: "I like oranges. You won't tell us where you found your apples, or let us eat your apples, but since none of your apples look like any of my oranges, I've decided your apples aren't as good as my oranges."

Which leaves it up to us to decide whether we prefer apples or oranges.

Make mine apples, please.

I don't think Evan expects you to draw conclusions of "better" or "best". I think he just expects you to look at his findings and go "hmmmm".

Personally, given the coice between 85% and 95%, I'd take which ever one proved most reliable/accurate in my chosen pistols, as I don't think there is enough difference between the two to worry about.

For me its food for thought, not proof of absolutes.
 
I really dont put much stock in any of these things. In my opinion its best to carry as many of the biggest/fastest rounds you can comfortably manage. Using the FPE of a certain projectile is a decent if imperfect method of determining its utility. Personally if its .38+p or more then im OK with it.
 
Higher velocity = flatter trajectory/more momentum.

momentum = mass x velocity



9mm (SB31045): 7.5 grams x 390 meters/second = 2,625 gm*m/s
115 grains x 1,280 feet/second

.45 (SB31125): 14.9 grams x 260 meters/second = 3,874 gm*m/s
230 grains x 853 feet/second

bullet weight and velocity from Sellier and Bellot's handgun ammo ballistic tables

Even thought the lighter 9mm bullet is travelling 1 1/2 times as fast as the heavier and slower .45 bullet, the .45 has more momentum (approximately 1 1/2 times as much).

Note that the 9mm has half as much mass as the .45. To give it a momentum equal to the .45, it would have to be travelling twice as fast as the .45.
 
Read Darrell Huff's book "How to Lie with Statistics" printed by W. W. Norton Co. A must read for anyone trying to analyze statistics.
 
M&S are by and large worthless. Their supporters seem to come in two groups: those who slavishly follow them because they don't understand math, and those who admit that they are flawed but still have some value... because they don't understand math. M&S continue to exist because people are scared of statistics, or anything involving math.

Oh, and some folks appeal to their "street cred," which last I checked is no guarantee that they can do math... let alone not be dead wrong.

M&S used invalid methods and got invalid results, but act like they mean something. They either are as ignorant of math as their followers, or dishonest hucksters preying on the low quality of math education among the general public in the U.S.
 
Penetration first,

then expansion. The bullet always has to go deep enough to interrupt vital functions or you're just betting your life on a really noisy ice cream scoop.

The whole argument in general (not this thread) has gotten ridiculous in view of the fact that we have so much good bullet technology at our disposal these days. I have visited with Dr. Fackler at length on some of these issues, and he is not some nutty little lab rat who's never seen a GSW. He is also not "anti-HP", or anything like it. I believe his contention is simply that there are absolutes of terminal performance, and that you can't change them just because it's Thursday.

When you're talking about gunshot wounds as a mechanism of injury, penetration is the foundation stone of the "wall". You might improve performance by doing something neat with the stones at the top of the wall- but you cannot yank the foundation stone out and cut it up to make "pretties" with. The wall will collapse when you need it, and all the fancy doo-dads in the world won't keep it standing.

Put another way- "Gee guys, let's cut 4 feet off the bottom of this ladder, so we can take it up and use it at the top- where we really 'need' it." Huh?

Conventional handguns do not consistently generate significant hydrostatic shock or compound tissue damage (simultaneous stretching/tearing caused by combined hydrostatic shock and explosive fragmentation) at their typical velocities. Most of the frangibles sacrifice penetration in an attempt to achieve this. If your BG has a folded up "Rolling Stone" under his jacket, or maybe something taped to his abdomen, wouldn't you like to be able to do better than just ruin his wardrobe?

None of this is to say that HP's are 'bad', or 'don't work'. They work better than they ever have, provided that we use some common sense and select a load that will always penetrate the torso with enough retained energy to disrupt the spine, should we be lucky enough to hit it. Moderate bullet weight per-caliber is required to do this. Now, get ready for a shock- this kind of performance often results in an exit wound. Two holes are better than one. Over-penetration is not something to obsess about. If taking the shot creates a greater hazard to the public than the lunatic you want to shoot, you simply don't take the shot. This can suck sometimes, but it's better than shooting into a covey of little old ladies.

There's really nothing left to argue about, because you can finally buy HP's that penetrate AND expand. Just make sure they are of sufficient weight to continue to penetrate when they do expand, and yes, gelation is the best medium we currently have to establish penetration/expansion in tissue. Gelatin is a pain in the a$$ to mix, cook, refrigerate, calibrate, etc. and you can rest assured that when something better comes along, we "jello junkies" will be among the first to lose it. The replacement medium is going to have to essentially do evertyhing that gelatin does, though, so I don't expect that "cheese in a can" is going to replace it this week. We'll just have to see what can be done over time.

This is not to say that Evan Marshall is "full of it" either, or that his work is irrelevant. He set out to do great things, but it seems that work he did has become commercialized to the extent that it compromised the credibility of the work itself. (I wonder who caused him THAT problem??) This is too bad, because a lot of Marshall's early findings are fairly consistent with what I have observed over 25 years of sorting out human mayhem. The .40/180 is not the end-all, be-all of defensive handgun loads. It works as well as a lot of other handgun rounds and that's all you can ask of it. If I was shopping for .40 ammo today, I'd give the 165's a hard look. It seems to be a good balance point for this cartridge offering decent penetration, along with some expansion.

None of them are the Hammer of Thor, and we would do well to remember that. Thor, to the best of my recollection, seldom missed or needed a 'follow up' shot!
 
It is just additional info. for comparison which should not lead one to believe that their gun/ammo gives XX% stops, nor is a small % difference significant. A different set of events or events included would give a different set of data.
Some think just because they have a 9mm or 357 even though w/ a very short barrel that it is equal to one w/ a proper length barrel for the cartridge.
 
Sean,

Being new to this debate I'm wondering what mathematical secrets you possess that M&S et. al. haven't figured out.

Do you have a link you want to post? Perhaps you've done some research on street effectiveness and would point us to where it's published so we could critically analyze it?


Also feel free to explain how your condescending tone, namecalling and complete lack of explanation for your position elevates your credibility over M&S.

My personal problem with M&S data involves transferring these results over to civilian shootings; I would think that criminals would be more intimidated by the police than by a civilian shooting at them, since the police have manpower and authority going for them. I would think I need more gun than the average cop to subdue someone. But hey, that's just my opinion.

I've also wondered why the .357 Magnum is so effective on criminals, yet when talking deer hunting people come out of the woodwork to denounce it. It just would stand to reason that if the .44 Mag. is effective on deer, it would be effective on people too. I just don't buy this "too much power for people" argument, and wonder if M&S thought they were somehow upholding the public safety by downplaying such a good penetrator as the .44 Mag.

Not that it supports my .44 mag. superiority theory, but I've also noticed that nobody in a shootout ever came out of it wanting "less gun".
 
T'M'B',

Thats just it... noone has ever offered a credible refutation of M&S.

To me a credible refutation means they do their own study, of the same types of shootings, using the same methodology (ie, excluding multiple shot encounters (Duh! It is a study of ONE SHOT STOPS!), which arrives at vastly different results.

Until then, its just sour grapes whining, IMO... and one of my college degrees asserts that I am good at math! :D
 
Not that it supports my .44 mag. superiority theory, but I've also noticed that nobody in a shootout ever came out of it wanting "less gun".
For some reason this made me laugh out loud over here. That's funny...
It's very true... your right.
 
The problem with with most studies including ones involving OSS is that there is not mathmatical way to calculate something subjective.

There are such a massive number of variables involved there is no way to take everything into account.

What these studys do show is trends and tendencies. From that you can infer things. But even in a closed system it's almost mathmaticly impossible to calculate things that seem straight foreward. Internal balistics are a prime example.

In the Hodgdon Annual loading manual they do an experiment test OAL on a cartrige where the results are that pressure increased as the OAL was increased until it hit the lands and then it dropped, which is the opposite of the conventional wisdom and what's intuitive.

There is no way to equate velocity, mass, energy, momentum, diameter, sectional density, or any other balistic property to a cartriges effectiveness.

What does all this mean? Cartridge choice is not as critial as many other factors, but it doesn't hurt to have a big one ;)

I myself put my faith in energy. If there is more energy availabe to transfer then if it's transfered less effectively there is still as much/more transfered. It takes energy to do work. The work I want done is moving tissue in case of defensive shooting. Because of this I like light fast bullets. My personal sellection is 135 gr .40 S&W or 10mm loaded full power for pistols and .223 for rifles in close quarters.
 
Being new to this debate I'm wondering what mathematical secrets you possess that M&S et. al. haven't figured out.

College probability and statistics, plus an ability to think critically.

Here is a hint for you, from an old topic on this very issue:

Food for thought: the M&S studies can't tell the stopping power difference between some .40 S&W loads... and a .308 rifle or a 12 gauge shotgun. All are within a couple of percent of each other on the OSS scale. Think what you want, but in my mind if a study can't tell the difference between the effects of a 165 grain projectile going 1,150 feet per second, and a 168 grain projectile going nearly 3,000 feet per second (or a 385 grain slug at 1,900 feet per second), it isn't much of a study.

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21184&perpage=25&highlight=OSS&pagenumber=1
 
It seems to me that the simple fact that only incidents where one shot was fired was the only ones used by M&S makes the whole thing worthless. Assume that for example a 135gr .40 tends to fragment and cause large shallow wounds most of the time. On the occasions that it does manage to penetrate enough to hit vitals when it does fragment then it would stand to reason that it would do tremendous damage. However, if for every round that manages to penetrate sufficiently, 10 other shots don't, then the round really only has a 10% OSS. The fact that the incidents where more than one shot was fired are omitted makes the whole study irrelevant.
 
Hal, knowing the type of bullet STILL doesn't take all of my varibles into account. It doesn't take into account where the bullet hits, its trajectory, etc.

Shooting someone in the stomach may have a different effect than shooting them through the sternum.
 
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