Are there any reliable one shot stop statistics ?

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Actually, the force is applied more or less normal to the ogive of the bullet, which is to say more radially outward than forward (in the case of an expanded JHP, this will still be true, except the pocket of fluid immediately ahead of the projectile acts as the front of the ogive for hydrodynamic reasons). The result is that the force on the tissue in the vicinity of the bullet is primarily outward rather than along the path of the bullet. That's what creates the temporary cavity in the first place, regardless of projectile shape.

I thought it was that the force exerted is primarily forward, while the actual displacement is mostly radial, because of tissue's incompressibility; the tissue immediately ahead of the bullet kind of acts as a momentary ogive (cross-sections of projectiles which hit multiple thin sheets of metal kind of show what I mean), and force is indirectly translated radially outward from there (plus the direct effects of the bullet's ogive). Even so, the pressure of a typical handgun impact seems to be considerably lower than the pressure of most blunt trauma impacts. I don't have enough knowledge of hydrodynamic physics to argue the point, though.

The "collective knowledge of the IWBA" seems to me to be the a priori consensus of the Fackler camp, no more and no less. It is also the "collective knowledge of the IWBA" that Marshall and Sanow are liars, which likewise may or may not be true. I have read IWBA materials fairly extensively and while there is a good deal of sound empirical evidence there, there is also quite a bit of going well beyond the evidence and making blanket proclamations about what must and must not be so, based on preexisting assumptions.

I think the biggest problem here is that some of Fackler's and the IWBA's work tends to oversimplify and overstate things at times. Like there was one paper about treating wounds which result from high-velocity projectile impacts, compared to low-velocity. At that time, in some circles, the typical medical procedure for low-vel wounds was to just patch the hole, while high-vel wounds would have tissue for a several inch radius exised, due to the belief that temporary cavitation would cause irreparable damage to soft tissues. When your fellow doctors are butchering patients like this, it's very important to get the point across. Then there's the "energy transfer" crowd, too. Uugggggggh. :banghead:

From what I've read, the conclusion that temporary cavity (from handgun rounds) causes no lasting damage to soft tissues is based on observations of surgeons. Of course, what you see in the operating room often has very little to do with the immediate effect of the bullet; a 5mm difference between the holes made by a 9mm FMJ and 9mm JHP could go unnoticed given the amount of movement soft tissues can do between the shot and the hospital.

Personally, I disagree with some of their findings as well, such as the conclusion that 10mm offers no advantage in wounding effect over the .40 S&W (or the .357 magnum over the .38), since those were mostly based on evaluating expanded diameter and penetration depth in ballistic gelatin. And given that most doctors can't tell the difference between GSWs caused by HPs and those caused by FMJs of the same caliber, I doubt that a study of the actual wounds would have shown any difference, either.

And yet they recommend HPs over FMJs, because the larger expanded diameter and less aerodynamic shape of an expanded HP have a theoretical advantage in wounding ability, even if the results in the ER and the morgue don't always bear this out clearly. So shouldn't a bullet that gets the same expansion and penetration with a higher velocity also have a theoretical advantage, since more force is exerted in the process?

Ballistics science is crazy.
 
So where exactly does Facker differ fundamentally from what Marshall and Sanow are saying.

Is it the old slow and heavy versus fast and light argument, is it a caliber thing (9mm just isn't enough etc ) or is it something else ??
Yes - No - Maybe - Sometimes - Never

If you truely want to know then YOU are going to have to do some research.
A LOT of it.

There is no possible way that it can be explained to you in the space of a forum thread. It's just not a simple answer.


In fact the comcept of a one shot stop CANNOT be effictively explained.
For instance just what constitues a one shot stop?

It is a single bullet wound that knocks a person down so that they are unable to continue?

Is it a single bullet would that stops all life functions?

Is it a single bullet wound that just hurts like hell and makes the person doing what he/she/it shouldn't have been doing decide to sit down, shut up and stop doing it?

Guess what... technically it's all three.

I guess you could call a warning shot fired into the ground that caused the moron to drop your TV in the middle of the driveway and surrender a one shot stop.

How do you mathimatically reduce any of those so they will correlate with each other?
You don't, because you can't.


And what about the first shot that pierces the heart and then severs the spinal column BUT the good guy lets loose round number two of a double tap.
Since two rounds were fired it cannot be a one shot stop even though the second round didn't count.

What about a double tap in which the first round enters the shoulder and the second severs the spine? The second round by itself would have done it. But since it wasn't the only round fired it don't count as a 1SS either.



The honest truth is that when using a handgun, a one shot stop is pure luck.




A very wise man recently remarked regarding "The MYTH of Stopping Power";
Devote less time to worrying (about your ammo) and more time learning to shoot better.
 
Hmm... Generally, I err on the side of the Marshall/Sanow theory, but that's probably because I've read alot more by them, than I have by the IWBA. However, one thing that Fackler said did strike a chord with me : The only OSS not caused by a CNS hit, are caused by the psychology of the victim (shootee?). I should imagine that the psychology of "Death Train" is even more important than his physique or health. It would be his mental attitude that makes him either a bullet-sponge or a pussycat when he gets hit for the first time, I would guess. If you think about it, mental attitude determines success or failure in everything, whether it's surviving a gunfight or running a small business selling cookies.

But then, I think everyone else is right when they say that there are not enough shootings to create any meaningful statistics. I look on the Marshall/Sanow books as more of a "rough-guide" than a definitive text - I have a feeling that's how the authors intended them, too.

Just my tuppence. ;)
 
Marshall and Snow used to publish data and we all enjoyed checking it out.

And the OSS is not a fallacy but you can't count on it.

Most LEAs are teaching firing under the threat stops.

So if it is a 320 ex-Marine on crack with thick winter jackets, even magnum rounds may require multiple shots to COM to stop that threat.

BUT COM with a 22lr means the threat slows down and still gets to you.

One to three COM and of the rounds in my sig line should stop that threat. :evil:

BUT I would not count on .22lr for defense UNLESS it was my only weapon.
 
jkswiss, that ballastics list needs updating.

There are several small ammo makers like DoubleTapp and American Eagle Powermax that have even more potent loadings for self defense purposes.
 
I'm not sure how up to date this list is. The rounds you mentioned might be too new to have gathered any significant one shot stop data from. However, I'm perfectly happy with my 40SW Remington 165gr GS at 94%. Seems to have a proven track record.
 
Problem with OSS is all of the variables and it's ususally police officer shootings.

Just go by proven ballastics data when in doubt and practice practice practice.
 
There are several small ammo makers like DoubleTapp and American Eagle Powermax that have even more potent loadings for self defense purposes
But how many times have they been used in shootings?

If you notice every round in the above list has been used at least double digits.
 
Don't know.

Don't think anyone would like to catch any of those rounds.

If the bullet doesn't stop the threat, the sound of the blast will knock them down ;)

All I know is hopefully we'll never know from personal experience.
 
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Most of Dr. Fackler's work is neither in support of or opposition to Marshall and Sanow's studies. If I recall correctly, Dr. Fackler was an Army surgeon in Viet Nam who became involved in a debate with other surgeons about how to best treat gunshot wounds. The prevailing strategy at the time was to excise tissue that had been disrupted but not liquified (temporary cavity) under the rationale that much of it was bound to become necrotic and therefore a source of intractable infection. Dr. Fackler held that most of the excision was not only unnecessary but detrimental because circulation in that tissue would normally be restored and it would recover well without excision. If it were excised, the surgery would be prolonged and risky, the void left would be a worse source of infection, recovery would be protracted, and there would be greater permanent disabiity.


Surgeons frequently become skeptical and argumentative when their accepted methods are challenged, so the debate went on for some time. Dr. Fackler moved from battlefield surgery to research at the Army's Letterman Hospital. There he pursued the topic of wound trauma and developed the use of ballistic gelatin as a tissue simulant to provide evidence in support of his contentions about surgery and wound healing.

I find it difficult to think of this aspect of his work as anything less than brilliant. However, his work had little to do with the rapidity of incapacitation due to gunshot wounds. In a battle situation, whether at the front line or at the hospital, nobody has the time or inclination to stand around with a stop watch and observe how long it takes soldiers to become incapacitated after being shot in precisely what part of their bodies with just what kind of missile at exactly what velocity. Dr. Fackler, to my knowledge, never conducted any research at all investigating incapacitation viz a viz wound trauma or ammunition type. His work was more lately energetically cited, however, in support of claims that "nervous shock" or "hydrostatic shock" were illusions (maybe they are) and that incapacitation could only result from upper CNS wounds or severe hemorrhage (maybe there's something else going on, too).

Marshall and Sanow, on the other hand, were highly interested in the topic. They were both involved in law enforcement and, accordingly, had a deep and personal interest in the effectiveness of their ammuniton. They were not the first to be so interested.

There have been numerous attempts to quantify "stopping power"; Hatcher, Taylor, etc. They tend to suffer from the same problem; oversimplifying a complex phenomenon into one number, usually some condensation of the characteristics of the ammunition rather than of the wound produced. That one number inevitably becomes inaccurate in describing the phenomenon in some, perhaps many, circumstances. It is true that some generalizations are accurate most of the time; disrupting vital organs is desirable, adequate penetration is important, big, heavy, fast bullets have a more profound effect than small, light, slow bullets, etc. However, there will inevitably be tradeoffs involved. Nobody can always use, or want to use, the biggest, heaviest, fastest, deepest penetrating ammuniton available. Considerations such as portability, concealability and shootability are also important.

When tradeoffs are involved, people will vary in the extent to which they value any particular factor. A lightly built, inexperienced shooter may value shootability more than would a large, strong expert marksman, for example. And when the choices involved are complicated, people tend to want agreement and assurance that their choices are correct. They will often value reaffirmation more than actually making the right choice. This is especially true when they cannot afford to make multiple selections to cover their bets. Their opinions may become polarized to the point that they become insulting or violent. Most of us have seen the decal of the little boy peeing on the Chevy logo pasted on the back windshield of a Ford truck and vice versa , for example. When very many people do that, the general tone of the debate can degenerate into ridiculous childishness.

Before Marshall and Sanow published their first book, semi-automatic pistols had begun replacing revolvers as law enforcement duty pistols and the self-defense handgun debate had become polarized into heavy and slow bullets versus light and fast bullets; in particular, the .45 vs. the 9mm. The 1911 pistol, shooting .45 calibre 230 grain ball ammo had served honorably, effectively, and reliably in four wars and was revered, by many, at the same level as Mom, apple pie, and football. The fact that many 1911s at that time had some difficulty digesting anything other than hardball did not faze most devotees of the .45; they revered hardball, too.

The high-capacity 9mm pistols, termed "wondernines" by their detractors, had also come onto the scene. Many police agencies had replaced their old-fashioned revolvers with "high-tech" 9mm pistols, attracted to their high capacity, fast reload, safety, and ease of training. The fact that their caliber, although of higher velocity than the .45, had smaller and lighter bullets did not faze them either; they could use expanding ammunition and shoot twice as many rounds. In the course of time, as the debate developed, this began to be characterized as the "spray and pray" strategy. For quite a long time the debate continued, degenerating all the while.

When "Handgun Stopping Power: The Definitive Study" was published, in 1992, I think, the debate was about at the level of the aforementioned "Ford vs. Chevy" charade. What Marshall and Sanow attempted to do was to bypass much of the "energy vs. momentum" debate by estimating the empirical relative effectiveness of different sorts of handgun ammo in producing rapid incapacitation. In order to get data that was in any way capable of generating reliable results, they had to eliminate as many uncontrolled variables as possible, while simultaneously obtaining a sample size of some reasonable statistical significance. In order to do this they had to come up with a simplified operational definition of incapacitation that could be used as a basis of comparison. The measure that they ultimately were almost forced to use by research constraints, was the "one shot stop" as defined by them in their publications. To anyone who reads their work with any intelligence it is obvious that the one shot stop concept was never anything more than an operational measurement. It was never a design goal for ammunition nor a combat strategy. It was simply the best measure they could find for comparing the effectiveness of different kinds of ammunition in producing rapid incapacitation in the real world. Unfortunately, when some people discovered in the results that some 9mm ammo produced a higher proportion of one shot stops than some .45 ammo (hardball), the howls of protest could be heard on Olympus, and some aspects of the debate degenerated even further.

The one shot stop studies are imperfect with regard to the design of the studies, the data collection, and the analysis. That same criticism can legitimately be applied, and is, to most research from psychology to pharmacology to particle physics. Some of the criticisms applied, however, are less well founded than Marshall and Sanow's work. Some people, for example, question the use of one shot stops, as a measure, rather than multiple shot stops. But if you were comparing, say, "three shot stops", how would you go about differentiating, after the fact, between cases where the shootee was incapacitated only after the third shot and cases where the shootee was incapacitated at the first shot but the shooter didn't notice and fired two more shots?

Some of the criticism aimed at these studies is oversimplified, some is just plain wrong, and some is utterly ridiculous. Some websites investigate bullet performance in gelatin, provide results only about penetration depth and recovered diameter, and make only feeble attempts to relate the results to effectiveness in real people. They sometimes claim that such estimates can't be made. Why bother then? Other investigators, basing their reasoning on recovered bullet data assert that there is no significant difference in effectiveness among the common handgun calibers, as long as they're not "mouse guns". How can they tell? An often repeated mantra at some fora is that "incapacitation can only be produced by an upper CNS hit or profound loss of blood pressure caused by severe bleeding." So why do cops use Tasers if not to incapacitate without killing? On one wound ballistics website, a writer went to great length to explain that kinetic energy not only had no application to bullet effectiveness, but that it was an artificial concept that had little use in the real world. Try running that by your hydrodynamics professor. But if you offer any disagreement with these people, they will pointedly remark that you don't know what you're talking about, call you silly names, ban you from their forum, and suggest that your morals are nearly as low as those nefarious scoundrels Marshall and Sanow. Why don't they just make a decal of a little boy peeing?

I do not defend Marshall and Sanow here; as I mentioned earlier I think their work could be better. On the other hand, I have never seen any sort of venom or childishness coming from them. I would merely like to see this whole debate elevated out of the daycare center. I would expect any reasonable person who is interested in the topic to exercise his energy and intelligence, study in accord with his inclinations, form his own conclusions, try to keep his discourse intelligent, avoid dogma, and go easy on the insults. I might add that if Marshall and Sanow's work were such a deceitful, erroneous crock of baloney, that it should be rather easy for somebody to produce a better study of handgun effectiveness on real people. I'm not holding my breath.


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BluesBear

Nice post (your next to last one, with the quote at the top). There certainly is quite a bit of reading to be done. Even Sanow, with whom I take issue particularly, has some useful things to contribute (like his theory that the laughable LEAA study would have been a LOT more useful and believable if they had finished it, which is to say, done it the way they originally designed it).

In this very heated debate about underlying principles for ranking cartridges, one area of study that I have found particularly informative and calming has been a visit to the African Forum at www.accuratereloading.com . Although the discussion of stopping power for dangerous game may not be current, once one starts to study about how to avoid being run over by a Cape buffalo (best method being to avoid hunting them), a lot of the BS and factual material both starts to fall into place. If one actually has an interest in killing large African animals, The Perfect Shot by Kevin Robertson is a great book.

But why should this be calming? Because one can see that people who really want to live through attacking these animals are mostly concerned about actually getting a bullet through to a specific organ, and understand their responsibility for getting it there. Most of them are not looking for a magic bullet. Almost all of the concepts applicable to hunting DG apply also to defensive use against humans.

I strongly recommend a study of stopping power for DG. There is a little less rancor in the discussion thereof, and I believe that once one understands the issues there, especially as put forth by Dr. (DVM, I believe) Robertson, there will be little need to get emotionally involved in the discussion of "stopping power" for humans.

520
 
His work was more lately energetically cited, however, in support of claims that "nervous shock" or "hydrostatic shock" were illusions (maybe they are)...
Illusion? or Red Herring?

Let me repeat it one more time...
I'll type it slowly for those who cannot read fast...

Regarding gunshot wounds,
There is no such thing as Hydrostatic Shock!
Period, that's that.


Hyrdostatic means fluids that are NOT in motion. No wait... Hydrostatic shock DOES exist. If you jump off of the Golden Gate bridge... Hydrostatic shock will be the last thing you feel.
But it's meaningless to gunshot wounds.

Regarding gunshot wounds,
It's Hydrokinetic Trauma
that disrupts tissue.


Hydrostatic Force or more accurately Hydrostatic Mass is what causes most hollow points to expand. The expanding hollowpoint can then contribute to the Hydrokinetic forces and cause increased Trauma



Model520Fan,

Thank you.
And thanks for the link.
 
I find it difficult to think of this aspect of his work as anything less than brilliant. However, his work had little to do with the rapidity of incapacitation due to gunshot wounds. In a battle situation, whether at the front line or at the hospital, nobody has the time or inclination to stand around with a stop watch and observe how long it takes soldiers to become incapacitated after being shot in precisely what part of their bodies with just what kind of missile at exactly what velocity. Dr. Fackler, to my knowledge, never conducted any research at all investigating incapacitation viz a viz wound trauma or ammunition type. His work was more lately energetically cited, however, in support of claims that "nervous shock" or "hydrostatic shock" were illusions (maybe they are) and that incapacitation could only result from upper CNS wounds or severe hemorrhage (maybe there's something else going on, too).

You seem to have missed the part where Fackler advised the FBI on their bullet selection, recommending 12" penetration in calibrated ballistics gelatin as the minimum, and where he co-founded the International Wound Ballistics Association.
 
Unfortunately, the IWBA is now gone. If you can get any back issues of their journal, that would be ideal.

Here is a good place to start online.
 
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After a brief perusal of that site, I found a citation of an article entitled "Incapacitation Time" by Dr. Fackler. Since I do not live near a university I do not know how to obtain a copy, and cannot tell what research it contains. Perhaps someone could help by posting a synopsis.

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thales, post # 36

was insightful, objective, and entirely worthy of a THR post.
Thank you!
 
Stopping Power

I am impressed with the intelligent, thougtful and well reasoned posts thus far. I can only add episodic data with which I am familiar. I work Emergency/Trauma in the rural south so my experiences will not match those of someone who works in an urban area.

For example, I have seen many .22 caliber wounds in the last 32 yrears, but can only remember one .380 wound. Many .45 caliber wounds but few .357 injuries. I rarely see death as a result of ANY shootings, but shotguns have produced most of the deaths I have seen in my career.

Strangely, I cared for one man many years ago who was shot six times with a .357 and lived. As far as I know, he is still alive. But one cannot extrapolate data from this one shooting! I would certainly feel safe carrying a .357 revolver anywhere.

We all have knowledge of this or that shooting, but in the end, bullet placement is everything .
 
Some things to consider:

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data". (no idea where I borrowed that one)


All things being held equal, the more powerful cartridge is more deadly.
All things being held equal, the more accurately placed shot is more deadly.
Show me two human beings equal in their resistance to or reaction to gunshot wounds.

(this one is mine) :D
 
Burt Blade, with a slight modification I think this should become your THR Signature.


All things being held equal, the more powerful cartridge is more deadly.
All things being held equal, the more accurately placed shot is more deadly.
No two human beings will be equal in their resistance to or reaction to gunshot wounds.





I've put it in my quotable quotes file.
 
I have been an active shooter for nearly 50 years now and............

the discussion/controversy about "stopping power" for handgun loads has been around at least that long. The current "gurus" have based their conclusions on a set of assumptions that, in the main, are consistently untestable. Therefore, their conclusions are, at best, tenuous and, at worst, erroneous. However, bullet placement seems to be another matter. An accurately placed round in a vital area (e.g. head shot) will produce a so-called one shot stop. And, I am sure that there are those that can cite, chapter and verse, an exception to that as well.

An old guy I used to hunt with (he is long since passed) used to say that, "mostly, a BB in the boiler room is better than a bullet in the butt"! It is the use of the word "mostly" that puts it in context.
 
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