The 20" barrel will give you fragmentation with mil-spec ball ammo out to about 200-250 yards.
16" barrel to about 100-150 yards
14" barrel ?
I don't know what to tell you about commercial soft-point ammo, perhaps looking at velocity charts and expansion rates from some manufacturers might lead you to some helpful conclusions.
The point really is that beyond about 300 yards, you are making 22 cal holes in things, regardless of what barrel length, more than likely, it will be much closer than that.
My pref is the 16" barrel, as it makes the carbine more usable and lighter.
The idea of getting a 14", with a permanent muzzle device to make it 16", makes little sense to me, might just as well have that extra 2" of barrel.
The good news, this is not a life long decision, you get one, try it, if you don't like it, you can sell if for near what you have into it, and then buy the other.
That only real benefit I see of the 20" over the 16", is that the sight radius is 4" longer, making for easier long shots. But this is of little consequence, if you are not making long shots, 300+ yards.