Bartholomew Roberts
Member
"Almost always" isn't good enough IMO, better to buy a couple of boxes of premium ammo just to be sure. Shoot one for accuracy and ballistics testing, keep the remaining cartridges for HD use. IIRC I read an article a while back that demonstrated about a 25% failure rate with ball rounds. I don't know which rounds were selected, nor where I read it, but that is just too unreliable for me.
The 25% number is from a study Martin Fackler did many years back. More recent studies have shown that both M193 and M855 tend to penetrate about 4" of ballistics gel before yawing about 70% of the time. 15% of the time, they will yaw under 4" and 15% of the time they will penetrate about 7" or more before yawing, even when travelling at over 2,700fps.
The variation has to do with the angle of the bullet on impact. Basically, in the first 100yds, the nose of the bullet wobbles like a tiny thrown football. This link explans the variation well and is in general, excellent reading for self defense ammo selection.