Cascading Failure in Judgment - How to Break The Cycle?

[MoMatt]

I'll try and add what I can to the already-great discussion.

I am a professional pilot for a living, and a very large part of training and what I do every day is planning and accounting for any possible adverse situations.

The longer I do this job the more fascinated I become with similarities shared among most all elevated-risk activities; flying, backcountry skiing or hiking, motorcycle riding, scuba diving, hang gliding... the list goes on. These activities all require the participant to accept an increased level of risk. The smart participant trains over and over for possible adverse situations.

All of the tools used can translate directly to self-defense protection and tactics.

A simple way to put it and a jumping off point would be this:

"Nobody ever rises to the occasion, they just fall back to their level of training."

In response to the original post, practicing "situational awareness" helps you realize early on that the road you're on could lead to a dangerous situation. In flying we call it "breaking the accident chain" and the earlier you catch something, the easier it is to correct it.

No accident (in aviation, scuba, driving a car, being assaulted by a bad guy etc.) is a result of one isolated event. It is a series of events that culminate in an accident. It is the person who is situationally aware that recognizes one of these events early on and is able to stop it.

The idea of the OODA loop is the same concept and a better application to combat operations or self-defense. Observation takes practice, and if you're going to stop a bad guy or escape a dangerous situation in time you need to constantly observe.

Practice it constantly, even in a "condition white" situation. The rest of the loop (orient, decide, act) is a method to constantly evaluate how things are going.

In response to your second question, "What do you do to break out of a 'poor judgment' cycle?" I think the more you train, the more you dry-run potential conflicts, the more you practice, whether it's formal instruction or just on your own, the more likely you are to break the chain. Adrenaline has a strong effect on the mind and body, and the more you train for a situation the more likely you are to react in a safe, correct manner even when your mind is "drugged up" on adrenaline.

It's all about risk management. There are plenty of books about it across many disciplines, aviation and self-defense included. Decide ahead of time what level of risk you're willing to accept and train to survive the worst possible situation that may arise. Takes years of practice.

I've heard it said before that to become an expert at something takes 15,000 hours of experience. Most of us have a long way to go.

As usual I've become long winded. Hope I made at least someone think about these concepts and how they apply to their own life.

 

[Coyote3855]

There is no evidence of that. The evidence indicates that Martin confronted Zimmerman while Zimmerman was returning to his car after losing sight of Martin. Zimmerman's breakdown in judgement came when he left his car to follow Martin in the first place. If he had stayed in his car and waited for the cops, Martin would have had no need and less opportunity to confront him.

I'm not sure there is "evidence" of anything at this point. Mostly internet rumors.

 

[JRH6856]

I'm not sure there is "evidence" of anything at this point. Mostly internet rumors.

There are a LOT of rumors, speculation, and fabrication, and relying on those or repeating them serves no useful purpose.

There is also actual evidence available such as the recordings of various phone conversations, and eyewitness statements. So far, they appear to tell a different story than the fabrications.

 

[Loosedhorse]

idea of the OODA loop

To me the OODA loop has to do with once the "crisis" has already started: the attack is beginning, your house is burning, your plane engine is sputtering, etc. If we can "break the cycle" of bad decisions earlier, we greatly reduce our risk of ending up in the crisis.

What keeps me out of trouble is more along the lines of what Deanimator said. Is this trip really necessary?

More specifically, as evidence starts to come in that you should not keep doing what you are doing, are you receptive to that evidence and willing reshape your plans and tactics...or do you just plow ahead, because "things will probably work out and I don't have the time to mess around here."

There is a point at which perserverence turns from admirable to imprudent.

It is a series of events that culminate in an accident.

Exactly.

 

[JRH6856]

To me the OODA loop has to do with once the "crisis" has already started: the attack is beginning, your house is burning, your plane engine is sputtering, etc. If we can "break the cycle" of bad decisions earlier, we greatly reduce our risk of ending up in the crisis.

What keeps me out of trouble is more along the lines of what Deanimator said. Is this trip really necessary?

Sounds like the same thing to me. The question "Is this trip really necessary" comes at the decision point of the OODA loop. You have already Observed and Oriented by considering where you are going, why you are going and what the risks are. With those in mind, you Decide whether or not to go and Act on the basis of that decision.

 

[Loosedhorse]

Sounds like the same thing to me.

I think Boyd would have disagreed. There's a difference between deciding what to do in the compressed timeframe of a dogfight, and deciding whether to go up for your scheduled patrol as the weather is turning dangerous in the first place. For one thing, the weather can't on purpose shift you from D to O by changing its maneuver; nor can you affect it by getting airborne and sudddenly changing direction.

But that's just an assumption based on what I've read.

 

[JRH6856]

To me, the difference is the length of the loop, timewise. The operation is the same.

But that could just be my adaptation of what I've read.

 

[Serenity]

I just downloaded Sway to my Kindle. Thanks for the referral

 

[Sam1911]

I just downloaded Sway to my Kindle. Thanks for the referral

Enjoy! Share if you have any thoughts about applicability to S&T topics!

 

[Sky]

Psychologically ( in my mind ) speaking with reference to age and fitness.

When young and in what some might call your fighting shape, with some people the attitude seems to be "Bring it ** (my friend)"! It is almost a territorial response mixed in with ego and some sort of " Who's the man now"? Very little thought is given to de-escalating a situation unless the opponents bring size or numbers that are obviously overwhelming. Then even in the aggressive fog of youth most know when to 'hold them or fold them'.

School fights, bar fights, and friend fights used to be not that unusual when I was growing up but, when the opponent cried "uncle" the fight was over. No knives, kicks to the head, or guns in my day were used that I can remember; none of my friends were shot or stabbed during altercations. There was an unwritten code of honor/rule that you proved yourself and your foe surrendered so now you can go your separate ways or be friends for life.

It seems that now, for whatever reason, the "man up/woman thing" is to get them down and fix them so they never rise again. At least carry the scars for life.

Maybe it is T.V., movies, or whatever there seems to be more meanness ( finish opponent permanently) in the country now if a fight ensues. Maybe, again, only the worst is brought to our attention via Youtube, news, Internet, and papers. Reality may be different.

I do believe if one survives the hot headiness of youth ( please do not pick on me I am still young in heart) and has a good mentor or lives long enough, you recognize the folly and stupidity of many of your past decisions. When looking in a mirror and seeing your busted teeth, broken nose, or your eye missing you might ask yourself if it was worth it?

If there is still a spark of intelligence left in your bald or grey head then you realize you have much to lose and very little to gain from looking for trouble or not avoiding situations where the old devil inside breaks loose with a snap decision that clouds your judgement and will have a negative influence the remaining days of your life. IMO this is especially true for those of us who conduct our daily lives armed regardless of age and fitness.

Some situations, unless your barricade yourself inside some fortress, are unavoidable, regardless of your situational awareness. All we can do is read sitreps ( situation reports) and in our minds place ourselves in the same situations and through our studies or classes try to figure out our course of action prior to the event.

1. How do you recognize when you are in that cycle?
2. What do you do to break out of it once you recognize it

Ask yourself, "Is what I'm about to do actually NECESSARY? What are the potential consequences?"

"Nobody ever rises to the occasion, they just fall back to their level of training."

A lot of truth in that.^ But there are many stories where some granny lifts a car off a relative or loved one. Bad example but it happens.

 

[Shadow 7D]

Fred Fuller posted a link to BTK (the serial murder) confession
worth a read

Also Gavin DeBecker's book 'The Gift of Fear'

Usually disbelief holds a person immobile or from reacting, and they ONLY react after the fact, when it's too late if they react at all.

Look at all the internet videos of beat downs or sudden attacks
the usual look on the victims face is dumbfoundedness
their usual reaction is NOTHING

BTK left people tied up, locked in rooms or just wounded
they never fought back until he was torturing them, and often not until they KNEW they were going to die, then they fight, but it's hard to fight when you are trussed up like a pig. BUT many of them managed to work a hand loose, kick through knots etc.

WHY didn't they do that when he walked in the house or when he was out of the room?

And to paraphrase Fred, best fight is the one you never fight

 

[Bartholomew Roberts]

Yes, I think denial plays a strong role in many people's reactions to a survival event - whether it is being lost in the woods or being approached by an aggressive panhandler. People tell themselves that the situation isn't as bad as an objective assessment of the facts would indicate and hope for the best possible outcome rather than pay attention to the likely outcome if they keep going down that path.

I guess one way of looking at it is that hope can be a double-edged sword as far as it can keep you going when you might have otherwise given up. On the other side, it can also keep you going deeper into a bad situation when giving up would be a more productive response. But how do you harness the positive side without getting the negative?

 

[mortablunt]

It takes a lot of practice to change how you understand and view human interactions. When dealing with tense exchanges, the normal rules of conduct no longer apply. People get sucked into bad situations by being careless in the first place and not paying attention to what they're doing or what is happening.

 

[JRH6856]

WHY didn't they do that when he walked in the house or when he was out of the room?

Because at that point, they did not know they would never have another opportunity that might have a better chance of success. When they knew they would not have another chance, they fought.

Most people are optomists

 

[harrygunner]

This is a question, it occurred to me as I read this thread. I wonder if anyone uses a "trigger word" to snap themselves back.

As a form of self-hypnosis, yell "Think!" during training. Could that get you back to training-mode if you say it in the middle of a fight?

 

[coondogger]

"It should not be assumed that honor and dignity are better served by
persisting in a wrong measure once entered into than by rectifying an error as soon as it is discovered." --- Benjamin Franklin

 

[Fred Fuller]

Sky,

A lot of the youthful excesses you describe are what writer/trainer Rory Miller describes as "the monkey dance" in what he refers to as the social nature of violence, AKA "the educational beat-down." Learning to recognize a monkey dance in the developmental stage helps avoid getting involved in one.

But social violence is different from predatory violence...

 

[9mmepiphany]

But social violence is different from predatory violence...

This bears repeating.

Anyone who doesn't understand the difference...not just think they understand, but really understand...please you yourself a favor and learn the difference. That understanding will go a long way toward keeping you alive

 

[JRH6856]

But social violence is different from predatory violence...

And in most cases, the tactics that might deescalate one only escalate the other. Which means knowing the difference is critical.

 

[coondogger]

Micro, this is very true and very worth thinking about. Deference in response to someone engaged in chest beating will defuse the situation. The same response to someone stalking you for the purpose of robbery (or worse) will only show weakness, which will encourage the predatory behavior.

 

[Loosedhorse]

the tactics that might deescalate one only escalate the other.

Not necessarily. A monkey-dancer is just looking for you to "back down" in a way that he can claim victory. A forceful "My fault, I'm leaving," lets him say he won...but won't be mistaken by an experienced predator as weakness.

Even if it is, you can inform the predator of his mistake in just a minute.

Remember that even though a "group monkey-dance" is social violence, you are still just a "resource" for the group: they'll use your injuries to make a statement. The difference between that and a predator won't be very noticeable as they start stomping you.

Best clue: a monkey-dance requires an audience. If a lone guy picks a deserted street to start the "what are you looking at" stuff with you, he is not monkey dancing. He's either a predator, or emotionally disturbed.

 

[JRH6856]

I didn't write "would" I wrote "might"...which implies "might not".

Best clue: a monkey-dance requires an audience.

Not necessarily. It only takes two to tango and the agressor can be his own audience.

 

[Sky]

Best clue: a monkey-dance requires an audience. If a lone guy picks a deserted street to start the "what are you looking at" stuff with you, he is not monkey dancing. He's either a predator, or emotionally disturbed.

That ^ is a very reasonable statement. I can think of situations where two thieves or three bad to the core 'egg' each other on; gang initiations, flash mobs, but in general, ( and I ain't no expert by any means) under certain circumstances I see your point.

Time for a war story: In 1976 I was sitting under a tree by some 1000+ year old temples having a picnic lunch with a local native girl. Three guys came walking across an open grassy area which lay before some of the temples. They were the type 'by their walk and look' you would not invite to your home or go have a drink with. Sometimes it is not inadvisable to judge a book by it's cover?

The girl I was with started digging through the picnic basket looking for the 8" or 10" knife she had brought to cut some mango. She had the look of "not fear" but spring loaded for action on her face and body. She was one tough cookie and I felt, no matter what, she would have my back, "if she could find the knife"!!

The larger of the 3 at about 10 feet away said, " Hey, you give me cigarette"? This was said in a voice that was meant to intimidate.

Looking back upon the situation I did everything wrong. I was young and bold, bullet proof, and invisible (in my mine if need be) and was a fan of Bruce Lee so what could go wrong!!!

"Why don't you go buy your own cigarette," was my immediate replay as I stood up while every nerve ending tempered itself for a fight. Could not do the flight thing; I would lose face before the girl with the picnic basket.

A couple of things happen. I was rude right back at him but I did it in his language which truly caught him and his friends off guard. I became another human being at that point instead of a sub human monkey who could not even speak their language. I have seen this played out more than once with language looking back over the years. It is a cultural thing in some parts of the world.

The cigarette idea was bypassed as he complimented me on being able to speak his language then the whole thing shifted on how long had I been in country and "where was I from thing".

The girl, the 3, and me spent a very enjoyable couple of hours talking, smoking my cigarettes, and drinking some beer they had brought. They really were decent guys in a foreign sort of way.

Lucky, lucky, lucky, is all I can say. They could/would have taken me apart, stuffed me in a hole by a temple and if lucky in the year 2525 someone might have found the remains; undoubtedly I would be way past caring!

We all have stories that when looked back upon realize the out come could have been much different. When we see or survive situations it goes into our memory bank. Later if the synapses are still working we can draw upon that knowledge and experience to affect the out come of some current event. What could I have done differently in the above situation.....no doubt many things but I am glad it worked out exactly as it did.

 

[The War Wagon]

Study the "OODA Loop" concept. VERY eye-opening...

 

[Loosedhorse]

It only takes two to tango and the agressor can be his own audience.

The monkey dance is the definitive "social violence." The guy who monkey dances without an audience is turning it into asocial violence

And that's worse, in my book.