CCW doesn't work? - Dramatic increase in justified CCW shootings in Minnesota

[Aim1]

There's though that say a gun will more than likely be used against you then be used for lawful purposes, especially self-defense. CCW shootings appear to be on the rise in Minnesota this year. Just from off the top of my head I believe that MN has about 1 or 2 justified CCW shootings a year (and I only recall one non-justified shooting by a CCW holder in the entirety of MN's CCW history). This year they have had at least 4 in Minnesota already and it's only March.

One was a father who came out and shot an armed robbery of his son in Brookyln Park, another was a victim shooting at armed robbery suspects in Saint Paul, one was a shooting over a Craiglist exchange in Shakopee, and the fourth was a defensive shooting over a fight involving kids shoes at a Air Jordan sale in Brooklyn Center.



CCW has been around for over a 13 (enacted in 2003) years in Minnesota. I don't know why the rise in justified CCW shootings in Minnesota is, but it's definitely higher this year.



Anyone else's states seeing a dramatic increase in justifiable CCW shootings this year?




I wonder if it has to do with the Ferguson Effect (cops doing less pro-active work), laws such as Prop 47 in California that lowers the penalties for many crimes allowing criminals to commit more crimes, or other reasons.

 

[X-Rap]

Or the shift towards early release of felons?

 

[GRIZ22]

My guess is as CCW increases there will be more shootings by people with CCWs. These would be incidents where the good guy was hurt or robbed, raped, or whatever crime the good guy shooting stopped.

I don't think it has anything with cops being less attentive.

Not a bad thing IMO.

 

[v35]

References?

If you have references post them here.

 

[hso]

Aim1,

You should post links to the shootings you're referring to. They may or may not be good shoots justified under Self Defense criteria and it would be beneficial for members to see the actual reports on them.

 

[BSA1]

Getting shot while committing a violent felony should be considered a occupational hazard.

 

[Aim1]

Aim1,

You should post links to the shootings you're referring to. They may or may not be good shoots justified under Self Defense criteria and it would be beneficial for members to see the actual reports on them.

http://www.startribune.com/brooklyn...s-armed-robbery-with-fatal-gunfire/369832761/

Brooklyn Park police: Permit-carrying resident halts armed robbery with fatal gunfire

Both intended victim and would-be robber had guns.


By Paul Walsh and Karen Zamora Star Tribune

February 24, 2016 — 1:23am

A man with a permit to carry a firearm fatally shot an armed would-be robber on a Brooklyn Park street, authorities said Tuesday.

The two men exchanged gunfire about 8:05 p.m. Monday in the 7500 block of Imperial Drive, police said. Officers arrived at the scene and found the man who was attempting the robbery on the ground.

The person targeted in the robbery has a valid permit to carry a handgun and was not arrested, said Deputy Police Chief Mark Bruley. State Rep. Pat Garofalo, R-Farmington, said the outcome of this shooting validates a 2003 law in Minnesota that allows people to carry a firearm in public. “A loss of life is a tragedy,” Garofalo wrote. “But when a criminal pulls a gun, they risk ending their life. Concealed carry works.”

http://kfgo.com/news/articles/2016/mar/13/teens-charged-in-shooting-at-brooklyn-center-shoe-store/

Teens charged in shooting at Brooklyn Center shoe store

Sunday, March 13, 2016 7:12 a.m. CDT

Witnesses say Townsend argued with another person over shoes, pulled out a gun and shot him, twice. A second person in the line outside that store, who had a conceal-and-carry permit, then pulled out his gun and shot Townsend.

http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2016/...akopee-craiglist-robbery-shooting-at-walmart/

Suspects ID’d In Shakopee Craiglist Robbery, Shooting At Walmart

January 28, 2016 2:57 PM


MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — Two men in their early 20s are in custody after a Craigslist transaction turned into a shooting Tuesday night outside a Shakopee Walmart.

Shakopee Police say one of the suspects met with the victim at the entryway of the Walmart for a cell phone transaction at about 6:30 p.m. Tuesday. One of the suspects, while holding the phone, fled to the parking lot to a van waiting with the other suspect.

Police say the victim chased the suspect, and the suspect turned around and pointed a gun at the victim, who darted behind a shopping cart and pulled out his weapon, which he had a permit for. The victim fired at the suspect as he jumped into the van, and the suspects fled.

I guess the St. Paul one was last year, my mistake.






http://www.startribune.com/alleged-...victim-was-w-st-paul-teen-mom-says/320481982/

Police: St. Paul robbery victim had permit to carry when he killed armed suspect

Shots were fired during a vigil two nights later at the robbery scene, but no one was hit; five were arrested.

By Chao Xiong and Paul Walsh Star Tribune staff writers

August 4, 2015 — 12:46pm

Only months before Lavauntai Broadbent, 16, was shot and killed on a St. Paul river bluff during a botched robbery, authorities say he was part of a violent mob of teens that led a rumble in a downtown St. Paul hotel.

Ramsey County attorney spokesman Dennis Gerhardstein said the robbery cases have been presented for charges. He said the office had not yet received a case on the shooting. “We understand that [the shooter] was not arrested and that the police view him to be the victim,” he said.

 

[Taurus 617 CCW]

Or the shift towards early release of felons?

Bingo! We have a winner!!! More bad guys = more defensive shootings.

 

[MechAg94]

Could it be just a shift in reporting such that we hear about more shootings?

 

[joem1945]

CCW does work. A lot of the data comes from the way the police classify the crimes. If a person doesn't have a firearm it's plain robbery. When the victim shoots the criminal it goes under a different heading. Will shootings of criminals increase? Yes, because there's more population. Will the percentage increase of shootings increase, probably not.

 

[TimSr]

CCW shootings will increase as the odds of criminals encountering armed resistance increases. It's a matter of simple math and probability. It's like predicting that doubling the number of drivers on a given road would result in more traffic accidents.

 

[gbran]

I believe Detroit has bumper crop of justifiable shootings. It's good to see innocents in high crime areas have the ability to defend themselves.

 

[boom boom]

Mild rant ahead,

Crime rates in quite a few major cities are up substantially. Some are now calling this the Ferguson effect which it is too early to tell but simultaneous policies releasing a quite a few offenders early also increases the pool of potential lawbreakers. Demographics in a community as far as the number of young males, unemployment levels, etc. also play a part. How are the police reacting to minor crimes--e.g. broken windows effect. This kind of jumping to a conclusion that CCW doesn't work based on small number of instances is characteristic of both the media and politicians. Note the contra, CCW worked quite well for the four assaulted victims to protect them from violent predators assuming that they exercised lawful self defense. Furthermore, if CCW was illegal or highly restricted prior to this--the number of cases of CCW used for legitimate self defense would be zero but you would have four victims under the crime report.

The idea that CCW creates perfect deterrence of criminals by its existence and fails if people use it is ludicrous. Vaccines, drugs, and even surgery survival are not perfect but would you forgo all vaccines, drugs, and surgery because sometimes bad things happen.

BTW, an increase of three or four instances in one year does not a statistic make versus past background number of 9-10. But, if I want to sensationalize it, I report the four shootings as a 40-50% increase in shootings since CCW laws were loosened without mentioning the raw numbers or other factors that could have contributed.

To get a valid statistical comparison, you would need to see this trend continue for several years and in other places for any kind of generalizable and statistically significant effect.

For example, crime rates--the general levels have been downward nationwide since the early 1990's but that does not necessarily apply to your hometown during that time period. Spikes happen and sometimes subside on their own--a violent gang moving into your town might cause a spike for a year then when they are all incarcerated, the rates will drop.

This is why you should cast a weather eye on any reported statistic fun fact mentioned in the news--generally the news media mangles reports of scientific studies in general and leaves out the caveats that was present in the original report. BTW, another fun factoid--at least half, if not more, findings in areas such as medical research, psychology, sociology, etc. cannot be repeated by later researchers trying to replicate the original study. The replication crisis means that a lot of what the popular media reports is junk as well as what is in the learned journals of these areas.

I spend a lot of time in my classes teaching students to use logic and statistics properly instead of cherry picking cases to "win" an argument. It is an uphill battle. When I do research, I am looking at decades of data or a large number of cases and spend months trying to locate all other control variables that may be affecting my result. If I find odd results, my first conclusion is that something is screwed up in my model and I do the darndest attempt to put my findings on trial and disprove them. Being a skeptic is a requirement for anyone who does research--most of all being skeptical to your own findings unless you rule out all other competing models through your research.
rant off.

 

[v35]

CCW shootings will increase as the odds of criminals encountering armed resistance increases.

This is not necessarily true, and is an example of the kind of rigid anti-gun mindset we oppose.

I believe Detroit has bumper crop of justifiable shootings. It's good to see innocents in high crime areas have the ability to defend themselves.

Funny you should mention Detroit. As criminals come to appreciate a greater likelihood of encountering armed resistance to violent crime, the number of violent incidents decreases. That's not a theory, since that has been the exact result seen in Detroit, for example: New Detroit Police Chief Favors Gun Ownership, Announces Declines in Crime

Obviously that's only the opinion of one person, but it's the opinion of an experienced law enforcement official who used to routinely deny CCW permits and had a change of heart.

Contrary to what the mainstream media and certain politicians would have us believe, police overwhelmingly favor an armed citizenry, would like to see more guns in the hands of responsible people, and are skeptical of any greater restrictions placed on gun purchase, ownership, or accessibility.

How has that been working out for Detroit? Well, the city recently extended his contract by two years.

Not everyplace is Detroit, or Maine, but having lived for a short time in both places it's been my experience that an area whose population is generally characterized by a significant number of law-abiding, responsible, armed people is a much safer place to live than one that isn't. No one wants violent crime. Even a small percentage of a population being legally armed makes a big difference.