Preacherman
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From the Stratfor weekly analysis e-mail (Web site www.stratfor.com):
STRATFOR FREE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
France: Are Chechens Tied to Tangled Web of Threats?
Summary
French authorities are taking seriously a letter that was faxed
to a Parisian newspaper March 16 threatening attacks inside
France and against French interests abroad. Early indications
point to a possible link with Chechen guerrillas and raise
questions about other potential connections.
Analysis
A letter faxed to several French newspapers March 16 warned of
possible attacks in the country and against French interests
abroad by Islamist extremists. The letter threatens to "plunge
France into terror and remorse and spill blood outside its
frontiers," said the deputy editor of Le Parisien, which received
a copy of the letter. French intelligence services are analyzing
the communique.
Sources close to the French government tell Stratfor that
security officials are taking the threat very seriously, in part
due to the letter's content. Public transportation systems in
particular are on full alert, and public warnings have been
issued for people to take extra care. The national threat level
has been raised from orange to red, the second-highest of four
levels.
Sources note that the two-page fax resembles a recent taped
warning from al Qaeda's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
which was broadcast Feb. 24 by Arabic television channel Al-
Arabiya. In the tape, al-Zawahiri railed against the recently
passed French ban on religious symbols in public schools,
including the Muslim hijab (headscarf), calling the measure "a
new sign of the Crusader hatred which Westerners harbor against
Muslims while they boast of freedom, democracy and human rights."
The ban has been extremely unpopular in the Muslim world and
religious leaders of various stripes have criticized it widely.
Islamist militant groups needing to generate fresh public support
at home could calculate that a retaliatory strike against France
would help do that -- and build on a show of power in neighboring
Spain.
It is too early to say definitively who was behind the threat and
if they are actually serious, but the letter raises the
possibility that France could be the site of the next March 11-
style bombing. Moreover, it raises the troubling prospect for
Paris that the interests of North African and Chechen militants
might be converging in France -- possibly under some kind of al
Qaeda banner.
The justice and interior ministries said the letter stated it was
sent "on behalf of the servants of Allah, the powerful and wise,"
and was signed by a group calling itself the Movsar Barayev
Commando. Barayev was a militant leader who led the October 2002
hostage-taking in a Moscow theater. He was killed along with
other militants and many of the hostages during the Russian
rescue effort. Barayev had two brothers, also militant leaders:
One was killed in Chechnya, but the other is thought to be still
at large.
Stratfor sources note that French intelligence might have found
evidence linking Chechen Islamist militants to the threat and
that local militants, who at one time fought in Chechnya against
Russia, might be involved. French intelligence also postulates
that Chechen, North African and local Islamists have joined
forces in France. This would not be much of a leap: In late 2002,
French security broke up a cell of Algerian and Moroccan
militants in and around Paris that had been planning attacks
against Russian assets in France. The suspects reportedly trained
with Chechens in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge and wanted to avenge the
deaths of people killed fighting alongside Chechen separatist
rebels, according to the French Interior Ministry.
There are other factors that support a possible
Chechen/Islamist/local militant connection. The French Chechen
community actively raises funds to support Chechen fighters --
many of whom are mercenaries. In light of the global crackdown on
militant financing, there are indications that Chechen rebels
have fallen on hard times. An attack in France by Chechen
militants would raise their profile in the Middle East, pushing
them to the forefront of the pan-Islamist struggle, which is also
thought to be an ambition of Chechen militants. This, in turn,
could open new sources of financial support for the fight against
Moscow.
There are other circumstantial connections as well. Tunisians,
Algerians and Moroccans make up a large percentage of the French
Muslim population, and militants from these countries reportedly
have fought in Chechnya. Chechens and North Africans also trained
together over several years at al Qaeda-run training camps in
Afghanistan. Such connections could result in cooperation
elsewhere, such as in France -- or Spain. At the least, these
militants could be seeking to employ Chechen methods in Europe.
A Chechen connection would be extremely worrying for Paris. It
would be hard to find a group with more expertise with
sophisticated explosives and other types of militant attacks.
Those attacks have included bold strikes such as the Moscow
theater hostage-taking and numerous bombings of the Russian
public transportation system, including the Moscow metro and
trains in southern Russia. Since the beginning of their campaign
in 1994, Chechens have tended to avoid the use of suicide bombers
-- a tactic that they adopted only recently.
In that respect, Chechen attacks against Russian trains resemble
the Madrid bombings more than attacks by other Islamists, down to
the detail of explosives-stuffed backpacks left in trains. That
similarity between Russia and Madrid raises another possibility -
- also based purely on circumstantial evidence: The new threat in
France could be connected to the Madrid bombing.
Coincidentally -- or perhaps not -- a Frenchman who converted to
Islam named David Courtailler will go on trial beginning March 17
in Paris for links to Islamist extremists. According to a March
16 report from Reuters, Courtailler met in the past with a key
suspect in the Madrid bombings, Jamal Zougam, during a visit to a
mosque in Madrid.
Finally, a connection between the March 16 letter and the recent
threats by a previously unknown group calling itself AZF to bomb
the French rail system cannot be ruled out. That mystery has not
been solved -- and while security forces had determined that
Chechens were not at the top of the list of suspects, they might
be rethinking that conclusion.
STRATFOR FREE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
France: Are Chechens Tied to Tangled Web of Threats?
Summary
French authorities are taking seriously a letter that was faxed
to a Parisian newspaper March 16 threatening attacks inside
France and against French interests abroad. Early indications
point to a possible link with Chechen guerrillas and raise
questions about other potential connections.
Analysis
A letter faxed to several French newspapers March 16 warned of
possible attacks in the country and against French interests
abroad by Islamist extremists. The letter threatens to "plunge
France into terror and remorse and spill blood outside its
frontiers," said the deputy editor of Le Parisien, which received
a copy of the letter. French intelligence services are analyzing
the communique.
Sources close to the French government tell Stratfor that
security officials are taking the threat very seriously, in part
due to the letter's content. Public transportation systems in
particular are on full alert, and public warnings have been
issued for people to take extra care. The national threat level
has been raised from orange to red, the second-highest of four
levels.
Sources note that the two-page fax resembles a recent taped
warning from al Qaeda's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
which was broadcast Feb. 24 by Arabic television channel Al-
Arabiya. In the tape, al-Zawahiri railed against the recently
passed French ban on religious symbols in public schools,
including the Muslim hijab (headscarf), calling the measure "a
new sign of the Crusader hatred which Westerners harbor against
Muslims while they boast of freedom, democracy and human rights."
The ban has been extremely unpopular in the Muslim world and
religious leaders of various stripes have criticized it widely.
Islamist militant groups needing to generate fresh public support
at home could calculate that a retaliatory strike against France
would help do that -- and build on a show of power in neighboring
Spain.
It is too early to say definitively who was behind the threat and
if they are actually serious, but the letter raises the
possibility that France could be the site of the next March 11-
style bombing. Moreover, it raises the troubling prospect for
Paris that the interests of North African and Chechen militants
might be converging in France -- possibly under some kind of al
Qaeda banner.
The justice and interior ministries said the letter stated it was
sent "on behalf of the servants of Allah, the powerful and wise,"
and was signed by a group calling itself the Movsar Barayev
Commando. Barayev was a militant leader who led the October 2002
hostage-taking in a Moscow theater. He was killed along with
other militants and many of the hostages during the Russian
rescue effort. Barayev had two brothers, also militant leaders:
One was killed in Chechnya, but the other is thought to be still
at large.
Stratfor sources note that French intelligence might have found
evidence linking Chechen Islamist militants to the threat and
that local militants, who at one time fought in Chechnya against
Russia, might be involved. French intelligence also postulates
that Chechen, North African and local Islamists have joined
forces in France. This would not be much of a leap: In late 2002,
French security broke up a cell of Algerian and Moroccan
militants in and around Paris that had been planning attacks
against Russian assets in France. The suspects reportedly trained
with Chechens in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge and wanted to avenge the
deaths of people killed fighting alongside Chechen separatist
rebels, according to the French Interior Ministry.
There are other factors that support a possible
Chechen/Islamist/local militant connection. The French Chechen
community actively raises funds to support Chechen fighters --
many of whom are mercenaries. In light of the global crackdown on
militant financing, there are indications that Chechen rebels
have fallen on hard times. An attack in France by Chechen
militants would raise their profile in the Middle East, pushing
them to the forefront of the pan-Islamist struggle, which is also
thought to be an ambition of Chechen militants. This, in turn,
could open new sources of financial support for the fight against
Moscow.
There are other circumstantial connections as well. Tunisians,
Algerians and Moroccans make up a large percentage of the French
Muslim population, and militants from these countries reportedly
have fought in Chechnya. Chechens and North Africans also trained
together over several years at al Qaeda-run training camps in
Afghanistan. Such connections could result in cooperation
elsewhere, such as in France -- or Spain. At the least, these
militants could be seeking to employ Chechen methods in Europe.
A Chechen connection would be extremely worrying for Paris. It
would be hard to find a group with more expertise with
sophisticated explosives and other types of militant attacks.
Those attacks have included bold strikes such as the Moscow
theater hostage-taking and numerous bombings of the Russian
public transportation system, including the Moscow metro and
trains in southern Russia. Since the beginning of their campaign
in 1994, Chechens have tended to avoid the use of suicide bombers
-- a tactic that they adopted only recently.
In that respect, Chechen attacks against Russian trains resemble
the Madrid bombings more than attacks by other Islamists, down to
the detail of explosives-stuffed backpacks left in trains. That
similarity between Russia and Madrid raises another possibility -
- also based purely on circumstantial evidence: The new threat in
France could be connected to the Madrid bombing.
Coincidentally -- or perhaps not -- a Frenchman who converted to
Islam named David Courtailler will go on trial beginning March 17
in Paris for links to Islamist extremists. According to a March
16 report from Reuters, Courtailler met in the past with a key
suspect in the Madrid bombings, Jamal Zougam, during a visit to a
mosque in Madrid.
Finally, a connection between the March 16 letter and the recent
threats by a previously unknown group calling itself AZF to bomb
the French rail system cannot be ruled out. That mystery has not
been solved -- and while security forces had determined that
Chechens were not at the top of the list of suspects, they might
be rethinking that conclusion.
