Crime stats, UK vs USA...

Status
Not open for further replies.

ny32182

Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2003
Messages
5,838
Location
Clemson, SC
Does anyone have a link to the number of each kind of crimes per capita in the USA vs in the UK?

Not only murder, but all kinds of violent assaults, burglaries, robberies, etc?

Also, these stats vs. before and after the UK's weapons bans would be the best also.
 
Me too! lol

Hello everybody.â„¢

I know! I was also looking for the Top Ten Firearms used in gun crimes by the FBI (hint, they were all 38 cal and .22 cal revolvers and compact pistols :barf: )

Please. I cant find them anywhere.
 
And while you're at it how about statistics for wrongful death by a medical practitioner, due to mis-prescribed drugs. You're doctor is more likely to kill you by "accident", than being murdered...
 
I just heard tonight on television that the FBI is reporting violent crime in the US down another 2% over the previous year. That hardly sounds significant but it's been going down for several years now as far as I know.

You're not going to be able to pin down dependable UK stats. The rules governing the way crimes are tallied keep changing.
 
Deaths[/URL]
And while you're at it how about statistics for wrongful death by a medical practitioner, due to mis-prescribed drugs. You're doctor is more likely to kill you by "accident", than being murdered...
What you seek is data about Iatrogenic deaths Usually I know how reliable a link is - this one is new to me, so I won't say it's right or it's wrong. I'd be a lot happier with data from, say, the Centers for Disease Control.
 
I know! I was also looking for the Top Ten Firearms used in gun crimes by the FBI (hint, they were all 38 cal and .22 cal revolvers and compact pistols
The info is dated, but available at 1995 Guns Used In Crime

What caliber guns do criminals prefer?

In their 1983 study, Wright, Rossi, and Daly asked
a sample of felons about the handgun they had most
recently acquired. Of the felons sampled--
* 29% had acquired a .38 caliber handgun
* 20% had acquired a .357 caliber handgun
* 16% had acquired a .22 caliber handgun.

Sheley and Wright found that the juveniles inmates
in their 1991 sample in four States preferred
large caliber, high quality handguns. Just prior
to their confinement--
* 58% owned a revolver, usually a .38 or .357
caliber gun
* 55% owned a semiautomatic handgun, usually a 9
millimeter or .45 caliber gun
* 51% owned a sawed-off shotgun
* 35% owned a military-style automatic or
semiautomatic rifle.
Tracing data is unreliable.
 
ttbadboy,

Here are the statistics from England and Wales (Scotland has a different legal system, and Northern Ireland is not counted because of its unique problems, as well as for political reasons).

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/crimeew0304.html

You'll need Adobe Acrobat to view the report. The statistics form two parts, Police recorded crime and the British Crime Survey. Recorded crime has been subject to two major changes since 1997 which have had the effect of increasing the numbers of certain crimes reported, but are more comparable to the UCR statistics (though of course the UCR doesnt include everything) than the BCS. However the BCS has not been subject to change as the recorded crime has, so it gives a better idea of long-term trends within the UK.
 
About the BCS

Sometimes the BCS attempts to count some categories of crime and sometimes it doesn't. It is also dependent on self reporting. It cannot be used by responsible staticians without their going into some detail as to how they weight crimes and otherwise handle the changing relevance of the BCS to different categories of crimes of interest.

Yours, TDP
 
TDP,

Please, that is absolutely false. The BCS occasionally has self-completion studies that include crimes outside of the usual BCS overview. That in no way equates to:

Sometimes the BCS attempts to count some categories of crime and sometimes it doesn't. It is also dependent on self reporting. It cannot be used by responsible staticians without their going into some detail as to how they weight crimes and otherwise handle the changing relevance of the BCS to different categories of crimes of interest.

The BCS, aside from self-completion modules, is done by means of interview using standard questions - which is how most studies are done. Are you a "responsible statistician" by any chance? Don't you think a "responsible statistician" would point out that, while the BCS has remained unchanged, the other set of statistics has been subject to major changes in the way that it has been collated?

Of course, this was explained on the last thread on the subject. The fact it has come around again should not surprise anyone.
 
The previous thread...

...confirmed to my satisfaction that everything I said in my previous post in this thread is true.

To amplify.

The BCS is entirely dependent on the accuracy of its participants for its accuracy and relevance, and it cannot be counted on to record all areas of crime of relevance to studies about the nature of violent crime in Britain, certainly not with any consistency. No I am not a professional statistican, however I can read. On the assumption you are a professional statistician, I feel it is incumbent on you to include such qualifications about your claims and sources as are required for your assertions to be evaluated properly, I think you are declining repetitively and deliberately to do that.

To quote information provided by Gunstar1 in that thread:
Post 103 of that thread.
"The issue of willingness to disclose incidents is very important for domestic violence. The 1996 BCS included a self-completion module on domestic violence that is viewed as providing a more complete measure of domestic violence (Mirrlees-Black, 1999). Prevalence rates for domestic assault in 1995 derived from the self-completion module were around three times higher for women and 10 times higher for men. The 2001 BCS contained a special selfcompletion module on inter-personal violence (domestic violence, sexual assault and stalking) and a report on results from this module is in preparation."

This was posted after you corrected me for saying the BCS did not include dometic violence, leaving the impression that it did...

...when in fact it does so with such variabilty that it cannot be used without assigning some weighting to the figures it provides, when it provides them.

You can't simply say, use the BCS, unless you are deluded or mendacious.

Frankly, as the result of your posts in that thread, and your ridiculous assertions that self defense against criminals (generally burglars) is a legally viable option* for the citizens of the UK, unless I am posting in opposition to your overly (deliberately) misleading assertions, I am ignoring you, Agricola.

*I should say "legally viable option for the citizens, as they perceive it." and that that is better measure of the utlity of the option, however meritriciously precise and accurate your view of the option may be.

Yours, TDP
 
Last edited:
TDPerk,

This was posted after you corrected me for saying the BCS did not include dometic violence, leaving the impression that it did...

Wrong - you are confusing the issue with rapes, which were subject to a separate self completion study. From the BCS website:

# In 2002/03, the total number of violent offences in England & Wales was 2,781,000.

# These included:

* 501,000 incidents of domestic violence
* 942,000 incidents where the offender was an acquaintance
* 949,000 incidents where the offender was a stranger
* 388,000 incidents of mugging

# Violent crime has fallen by 35% since its peak in 1995, and has remained relatively stable since 2000.

from: http://www.crimestatistics.org.uk/output/page63.asp

The BCS is entirely dependent on the accuracy of its participants for its accuracy and relevance, and it cannot be counted on to record all areas of crime of relevance to studies about the nature of violent crime in Britain, certainly not with any consistency. No I am not a professional statistican, however I can read. On the assumption you are a professional statistician, I feel it is incumbent on you to include such qualifications about your claims and sources as are required for your assertions to be evaluated properly, I think you are declining repetitively and deliberately to do that.

Wrong again. I have made no negative remarks about the BCS - it is a survey, like all surveys with the attendant risks. However, it has been established for at least fifteen years, it has a lot of controls and the format of the survey has not changed, so it is of use in measuring how people have experienced crime in the time that the survey has been in establishment. I pointed out your comments - which were:

It cannot be used by responsible staticians without their going into some detail as to how they weight crimes and otherwise handle the changing relevance of the BCS to different categories of crimes of interest.

So if you arent a "responsible statistician" - do you know any who have highlighted these errors in the BCS?

You can't simply say, use the BCS, unless you are deluded or mendacious.

And yet you can use the Police Recorded Crimes, with the attendant risks in the way that the totals are made up, without at least pointing out the rises in certain crimes may be due to these changes. Funny how Lott, Malcolm, almost every newspaper and the Tory opposition fails to mention that, huh?

Frankly, as the result of your posts in that thread, and your ridiculous assertions that self defense against criminals (generally burglars) is a legally viable option* for the citizens of the UK, unless I am posting in opposition to your overly (deliberately) misleading assertions, I am ignoring you, Agricola.

Wallow away, by all means.
 
Agricola, no...

...I, and gunstar1, were talking about domestic violence in this case, not rapes. I just reread thread, you didn't correct me about rapes, and GS wasn't talking about rapes with or near that quote.

Neither of which has any bearing on the difficulties of self completed survey modules (let alone for now the nature of surveys) as sources dependent of the interest, and accuracy of those surveyed.

I have made no negative remarks about the BCS - it is a survey, like all surveys with the attendant risks
I know you haven't, I am suggesting you should acknowledge straightforwardly the negatives which exist regarding the use of the BCS in studies of violent crime in Britain.

You declaim the use of other sources, for example the records of the police, but do not acknowledge the prime utility of the BCS seems to be that your reports of its significance supports your claims.

You are incontrovertibly cherry picking your data at least as much as you claim Lott is, yet Lott has made no extraordinary claims, as you have. It has already been pointed out Lott's findings are in general agreement with Kleck's, and each supports a model of human behavior that is self-consistent, where no model of human behavior consistent with your claims is either self-consistent or supported by what I read on the BBC. Approximately once a month or a little more often, I hear of weapons being siezed while being smuggled in, or the use of black market manufactured weapons led to the factory, or person defending themselves against crime is being arraigned for it. The murder rate by firearms has risen considerably since the nearly complete gun ban laws have been in place, as has the rate of other gun law covered crimes.

So if you arent a "responsible statistician" - do you know any who have highlighted these errors in the BCS?

Not really relevant when I can see for myself that you are protesting too much that the BCS is a fine source for data supporting your claims. If you don't want to seem deceptive, then you might do more to acknowledge the "attendant risks" of surveys that you speak of, as well as recognizing the improvements in the accuracy of the police reports (or if you don't think they were improvements, say why).

...Lott, Malcolm, almost every newspaper and the Tory opposition fails to mention that, huh?

You declaim the BBC...and every other news outlet in Britain, as far as I can tell...as being biased against your conclusions. They are all against you, it MUST be a conspiracy to deceive the UK public that the gun laws are not working as excellently as you think the REAL data implies. :banghead: I think this more nearly shows your bias than theirs.

You are not a scholar in this area, you are an advocate. It shows.

Yours, Tom Perkins
molon labe
montani semper liberi
para fides paterna patriae
 
TDPerk,

This is becoming tiresome. In a list, your errors:

i) the BCS, for the last time, is a survey conducted using interviews, not self-completion modules. Self completion modules are used for occasional, focused surveys into specific crimes. When you say:

Neither of which has any bearing on the difficulties of self completed survey modules (let alone for now the nature of surveys) as sources dependent of the interest, and accuracy of those surveyed.

This is something that was brought up, against Gunstar's use of such examples on that thread. Its nice to see you agree with me on that.

ii)
I know you haven't, I am suggesting you should acknowledge straightforwardly the negatives which exist regarding the use of the BCS in studies of violent crime in Britain.

There are two means of checking the level of violent crime. One is an internationally respected survey, which has a long history, has clearly defined controls, is of a large size and which has not been subject to change. The other are Police statistics, which - especially in the area of violent crime - have been subject to radical change.

In terms of identifying trends, the survey is better because the confusion (which Lott and others have exploited) in terms of what rise in the Police statistics is due to recording practices, and what is due to a rise in crime. Its worth noting that there are crimes - like Burglary - where there has been little change for the Police recorded statistics, so a comparison can be drawn. When we look at that (on the .pdf posted above) we find, to our amazement (when one thinks of what Lott and others, as well as the papers have been saying) that Burglary is (in both the BCS and Police statistics) at its lowest level since the late 1980's.

iii)
You are incontrovertibly cherry picking your data at least as much as you claim Lott is, yet Lott has made no extraordinary claims, as you have.

I suggest you learn what "cherry-picking" means, because I have presented all the data, both Police and the BCS, with the qualifications that are required in order to make sense of the statistics. My claim at my entry into this thread was:

The statistics form two parts, Police recorded crime and the British Crime Survey. Recorded crime has been subject to two major changes since 1997 which have had the effect of increasing the numbers of certain crimes reported, but are more comparable to the UCR statistics (though of course the UCR doesnt include everything) than the BCS. However the BCS has not been subject to change as the recorded crime has, so it gives a better idea of long-term trends within the UK.

If that is an "extraordinary claim" - and its worth noting that the actual blurb from the Home Office is:

For the crime types it covers, the BCS can provide a better reflection of the true extent of crime because it includes crimes that are not reported to the police. The BCS count also gives a better indication of trends in crime over time because it is unaffected by changes in levels of reporting to the police, and in police recording practices.

then I am a French international footballer. To even compare that with Lott's contention that the 1997 Gun Ban caused a rise in crime is utterly laughable, to say nothing of imbecilic.

iv)
It has already been pointed out Lott's findings are in general agreement with Kleck's, and each supports a model of human behavior that is self-consistent, where no model of human behavior consistent with your claims is either self-consistent or supported by what I read on the BBC.

I am unaware of any study Kleck has made of British crime patterns. Has there been one? Also, and as said above, my claims on this thread have been solely around the relative merits and dangers of the two main systems for recording crime in England and Wales. What thread have you been reading?

v)
Approximately once a month or a little more often, I hear of weapons being siezed while being smuggled in, or the use of black market manufactured weapons led to the factory, or person defending themselves against crime is being arraigned for it.

And of course, that standard of information is so much better than the BCS in determining "the truth". :rolleyes:

vi)
Not really relevant when I can see for myself that you are protesting too much that the BCS is a fine source for data supporting your claims. If you don't want to seem deceptive, then you might do more to acknowledge the "attendant risks" of surveys that you speak of, as well as recognizing the improvements in the accuracy of the police reports (or if you don't think they were improvements, say why).

That has all been answered on the first thread, and at least twice here, and above for good measure.

vii)
You declaim the BBC...and every other news outlet in Britain, as far as I can tell...as being biased against your conclusions. They are all against you, it MUST be a conspiracy to deceive the UK public that the gun laws are not working as excellently as you think the REAL data implies. I think this more nearly shows your bias than theirs.

Please show where I declaim against the BBC, or for that matter where I claim that the gun laws have been working, or for that matter where I have attempted to cite that with data. First though, take off the tinfoil hat.

You are not a scholar in this area, you are an advocate. It shows.

I wouldnt be too sure of that - you are the one who (as shown above) has gone off on some mad tangent.

[edited to change "below" for "above" - the PDF is on the first link I posted]
 
Last edited:
I debated giving the last word with your last post...

...on the grounds the more cr@p is stirred the worse it stinks, however.

i) the BCS, for the last time, is a survey conducted using interviews, not self-completion modules. Self completion modules are used for occasional, focused surveys into specific crimes.

You make a distinction without a difference.

This is something that was brought up, against Gunstar's use of such examples on that thread. Its nice to see you agree with me on that.

You agree with me that you understate the problems of surveys to the extent that you aren't credible?[crickets chirp] uncomfortable pause [/crickets chirp] Right.

One is an internationally respected survey, which has a long history, has clearly defined controls, is of a large size and which has not been subject to change.
So the problems you above admit exist have not been addressed.

The other are Police statistics, which - especially in the area of violent crime - have been subject to radical change.
Changes required by the gross understatement of crime which previously plagued the Police reports, and which understatements have been corrected.

Do you dispute they are accurate now, I wonder?

Its worth noting that there are crimes - like Burglary - where there has been little change for the Police recorded statistics, so a comparison can be drawn.
Interesting the only time you feel the Police reports are accurate are when their results support your conclusion, and when they retain reporting procedures which you claim are inaccurate... Incidentally, because self defense against burglars in the home has been OFFICIALLY DISCOURAGED(tm) for a long time in England, I wouldn't doubt that burglary did not increase much with the gun ban, because the government was already encouraging burglary about as much as the public could stand.

In fact, the Police reports potentially are originally every bit as accurate as the BCS, as far as you or I know--each is subject to the self censorship of the participants.

I suggest you learn what "cherry-picking" means, because I have presented all the data, both Police and the BCS, with the qualifications that are required in order to make sense of the statistics.

a) Cherry-picking is using data that supports your conclusion when other data at least as accurate as yours doesn't support it.

b) No, you've been remarkably careless in describing the pitfalls in your data. Certainly no better than you claim Lott has been.

If that is an "extraordinary claim" - and its worth noting that the actual blurb from the Home Office is:
As if the UK gov. wouldn't put the best light on things it can, regardless of the truth of it. That was certainly it's practice until recently, when it admitted a firearms related crime occurred every hour in Britain and that it should loosen the stringent restrictions on the defense of the home by the victims of burglars.

The British government has until recently held virtually unanimously that the rights of burglars to be unmolested by violence by homeowners borders on the absolute.

This is another area where you lose credibility, when you insist the right of self defense in the UK is present in the law, when it is in fact rendered nuggatory by the phrase "reasonable force," which to Crown Prosecutors seems to mean any force which is successful.


For the crime types it covers, the BCS can provide a better reflection of the true extent of crime because it includes crimes that are not reported to the police. The BCS count also gives a better indication of trends in crime over time because it is unaffected by changes in levels of reporting to the police, and in police recording practices.


then I am a French international footballer. To even compare that with Lott's contention that the 1997 Gun Ban caused a rise in crime is utterly laughable, to say nothing of imbecilic.

It is in fact an extraordinary claim that the violent crime rate (and burglary and firearms crime when those are separable categories) in the UK did not rise after the UK gun ban in 1997. Given long established principles of cause and effect and cost vs. benefit, it is quixotically odd to feel they are not correlated on the face of it.

Kleck has done no particular study of UK crime that I know of, but to assume his conclusions (and Lott's) are inaccurate for the UK is to assume that human nature and the laws of economics are different between the UK and the USA--you really are making an extraordinary claim.

What thread have you been reading?
This one. Why do you think some thread I have not cited is at issue?

And of course, that standard of information is so much better than the BCS in determining "the truth".
When the BCS is touted by the UK government to show the "truth," and competing "truths" are more in line with human nature and the laws of economics, and in line with the reporting of news sources of varied political stripes, then I will place little faith in the self serving claims of that government. Occam's Razor should be applied, and the BCS cut out of the fabric of the "truth."

That has all been answered on the first thread, and at least twice here, and above for good measure.

No you haven't aswered it at all, you have merely made assertions to the contrary; an answer of sorts, but not evidence.

Please show where I declaim against the BBC, or for that matter where I claim that the gun laws have been working, or for that matter where I have attempted to cite that with data. First though, take off the tinfoil hat.

You declaim against the BBC here:
And of course, that standard of information is so much better than the BCS in determining "the truth".

The BBC, primarily, WAS "that standard" to which I refer.

I wouldnt be too sure of that - you are the one who (as shown above) has gone off on some mad tangent.

I am absolutely certain of it. You may be a scholar. You may be a scholar in the field of statistics. You may specialize in the field of criminal statistics.

Nevertheless.

You do not act as a scholar in these threads. You make extradordinary claims and do not back them up with any mathematical vigor, and I do insist that responsibility is yours because you are making the extraordinary claims.

Who is Brett Osborn?

Yours, TDP
ml
msl
pfpp
 
Last edited:
TDPerk,

Sorry (not to you, to the rest of the board), but that is one of the most wilfully ignorant posts I have ever read on this forum.

Its almost as if you have ignored all the facts and just continued to put your fingers in your ears and shout "I'm not listening!!"; to the extent that further debate is evidently wasted on you, because you have no knowledge of the subject, and no desire to have your knowledge improved - if it is capable of being improved; given this gem:

Changes required by the gross understatement of crime which previously plagued the Police reports, and which understatements have been corrected.

and yet, TDPerk, your whole contention is summed up by the quote below, from the same post:

It is in fact an extraordinary claim that the violent crime rate (and burglary and firearms crime when those are separable categories) in the UK did not rise after the UK gun ban in 1997. Given long established principles of cause and effect and cost vs. benefit, it is quixotically odd to feel they are not correlated on the face of it.

You, in the same post, argue that the rise in crime is due to changes in the way Police record crimes, and also that the same rise is due to the 1997 gun ban. This is a remarkable piece of logic, and one that is deserving of further study at one of your nations fine sanitoria.

Thats not even to start on the fact - which is evident from the statistics, which were posted on the thread - that burglary has been falling since that period (in both the BCS and Police statistics). That you claim that it isnt, based on nothing at all (aside from "I read it somewhere"), says a great deal.

However, as more intelligent members than you of this forum have pointed out, the 1997 ban had no effect at all on the levels of violent crime, because pre-1997 the UK had probably one of the strictest set of controls in the world.

a) Cherry-picking is using data that supports your conclusion when other data at least as accurate as yours doesn't support it.

For the last time, on this thread - indeed on most if not all other threads that I have posted on here - I have not posted a conclusion, save that what you have been told about the UK is a big pack of easily-disprovable lies, and almost always the evidence that shows the lies for what they are.

I remind you what I posted at the start, and again on the last post, because you have either not read it, or (more likely) not understood it. I'll embolden it so that you can have someone read it to you:

The statistics form two parts, Police recorded crime and the British Crime Survey. Recorded crime has been subject to two major changes since 1997 which have had the effect of increasing the numbers of certain crimes reported, but are more comparable to the UCR statistics (though of course the UCR doesnt include everything) than the BCS. However the BCS has not been subject to change as the recorded crime has, so it gives a better idea of long-term trends within the UK.

What part of this statement do you disagree with, and why, and please provide some evidence this time.

The British government has until recently held virtually unanimously that the rights of burglars to be unmolested by violence by homeowners borders on the absolute.

Please provide evidence of this, and bear in mind the R v Martin parole decision was based not on "burglars have rights too", but rather on Martin's reluctance to acknowledge that his behaviour was unacceptable. By that I mean not only his shooting a fleeing burglar in the back, but also his shooting at apple scrumpers, his blowing out of his neighbours windows following a disagreement and sundry other "eccentric" behaviours that came out at trial.

This is another area where you lose credibility, when you insist the right of self defense in the UK is present in the law, when it is in fact rendered nuggatory by the phrase "reasonable force," which to Crown Prosecutors seems to mean any force which is successful.

Also, provide evidence of this - you may want to research R v Shannon which established a clear precedent with regards to the issue of reasonable / proportionate force. Then come back here and apologise.

Kleck has done no particular study of UK crime that I know of, but to assume his conclusions (and Lott's) are inaccurate for the UK is to assume that human nature and the laws of economics are different between the UK and the USA--you really are making an extraordinary claim.

Which study of Klecks' are you referring to? The one about defensive gun uses? Do you know anything about the nature of personal ownership of firearms in the UK that might affect the number of brandishings?

When the BCS is touted by the UK government to show the "truth," and competing "truths" are more in line with human nature and the laws of economics, and in line with the reporting of news sources of varied political stripes, then I will place little faith in the self serving claims of that government. Occam's Razor should be applied, and the BCS cut out of the fabric of the "truth."

Yes, its all part of a massive conspiracy that - in a Government which is as leaky as this one (see the demise of the Home Secretary) - noone has leaked the fact that HMG has been cooking the books (but just the BCS) in order to make itself look good. I mean, lets just ignore the fact that, if HMG wanted to do that it would be much easier to have not brought in the NCRS and kept the reported violent crime levels at their pre-adjusted level, which (as you admit above) would have "reduced crime".

You declaim against the BBC here

Utterly, and demonstrably, wrong. What I said was (including your quote):

Approximately once a month or a little more often, I hear of weapons being siezed while being smuggled in, or the use of black market manufactured weapons led to the factory, or person defending themselves against crime is being arraigned for it.


And of course, that standard of information is so much better than the BCS in determining "the truth".

The meaning could not be clearer, you base your "views" on news items, which you yourself said were "once a month, or a little more often", from an incredibly wide base of stories from which to choose. You then use that information, combined with all your little biases, to produce a "truth" that is so untrue as to be


For those who still care, the BCS and Police Statistics are available, with explanations as to their uses, and pitfalls, here .
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top