Critical Mass

[Werewolf]

Currently depending on where one lives the CCW rate runs approximately 2.5% of the population to I believe as high as 6%.

Proportionately that's not a whole lot of folks with permits and I'd hazard a guess that not a lot of them pack regularly.

Superficially it seems that this low number of packers is enough to persuade many would be muggers, robbers, home invaders and others of their ilk from commiting a crime they might otherwise have commited if no one packed. This disuasion seems to result from the knowledge that one's victim may be armed (or not) and that this entails a risk that seems to impact a criminal's decision to commit his or her planned crime.

Now let us suppose that the rate of packing goes up to 20% or 50% or even 90%. At what point do the criminals just say screw it and shoot first rather than deal with the risk of accosting an armed citizen - i.e. critical mass?

Think about it. Criminals aren't going away even if the population is 100% armed. They'd just have to change their tactics. Maybe it's a good thing that there is such a high proportion of sheeple in the general population.

 

[Oleg Volk]

In a highly armed population (which probably can't exceed 20% for various reasons), enough victims and bystanders would engage criminals to exterminate those dumb enough to try violence in short order.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

Amen!

The old anti-gunner argument that "If they think you're carrying a gun, they'll just shoot you" has long been proven false.

After all, police wear uniforms and carry openly, but rarely does anyone attempt to shoot and rob a policeman.

 

[MrAcheson]

After all, police wear uniforms and carry openly, but rarely does anyone attempt to shoot and rob a policeman.

Not unless their objective is to get the policeman's gun.

But seriously once critical mass is reached the criminals are going to realize its easier to just get honest work.

 

[strambo]

I think there would just be a lot more property crime...there already is a lot more property crime than personal (violent) crime anyway. By property crime I mean burglary, auto theft, shoplifting etc...

I don't see why a criminal would up the ante all the way to murder in front of witnesses (probably) just to get from your person what he could get a lot more of from your house or car when you're not around. On top of that armed folks are usually alert folks, so success would hardly be assured even by just walking up and shooting.

Pick-pocketing someone you think is armed sure would be a rush...criminal extreme sport?

Something I just thought of...are many convenience store clerks armed? I have read a lot of accounts where they are armed, but robbers usually don't just shoot them first. If they shoot it is after an escalation of some sort from what I've seen.

 

[Mad Man]

Currently depending on where one lives the CCW rate runs approximately 2.5% of the population to I believe as high as 6%.

Homosexuals make up about 3% of the population, and look how much political clout they have.

 

[Treylis]

Homosexuals make up about 3% of the population, and look how much political clout they have.

Check out the Kinsey stuff and more recently perhaps the Gallup poll that made some news a bit back. I've just seen so many studies that are basically politically/religiously motivated and so finding the actual amount is probably... a bit difficult.

Frankly, I think that's an extremely low number.

 

[raz-0]

I don't think it will turn into a shoot first ask questions later proposition. Criminals by and large are opportunists. Violent criminals fall into two basic categories. Those who get violent with those they do business with (or their competition), and those who get violent with complete strangers.

Those who get violent with complete strangers are already motivated to stop with a carry rate as low as it is because they don't want to confront an armed individual. They'll put in the minimal effort needed to graduate to exploiting the greedy and stupid, or basic property theft.

About the only gorup you might increase the risk from is the odd sociopath who was satisfied bulying people with the threat of harm who now can't get away with it, but still needs to attempt to scratch that itch. Most of those types don't really plan ahead much, and I could see where it jsut means they come out on the losing end most of the time.

 

[TallPine]

But seriously once critical mass is reached the criminals are going to realize its easier to just get honest work.

Or run for office ....

 

[PaladinVC]

I'd say that if I was looking to mug somebody, I wouldn't be looking for a gunfight. I'll take that 3% chance that the person I'm mugging will draw on me and I'll have to book, but I won't take a 90% chance of starting a gunfight. If the gun-grabbers are right, and more guns will indeed lead to more frequent shootings, it probably won't lead to more shootings with impunity. You'd either get shot in the process or caught after the fact.

Now that I think about it, the favorite statistic that in 98% of cases you just show the gun and the attacker flees is almost an insurance policy to muggers. You follow some citizen down a dark alley, and if they pull a gun on you you say, "Sorry, ma'am!" and beat feet. Moral pangs and certain legislative nuances will prevent a responsible gun owner from putting one between your shoulder blades the overwhelming majority of the time.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

Quote:
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Or run for office ....
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I resemble that remark!

Vern Humphrey
Republican for Congress
First District of Arkansas

 

[Standing Wolf]

At what point do the criminals just say screw it and shoot first rather than deal with the risk of accosting an armed citizen - i.e. critical mass?

Long before that point, the raw number of criminals would drop precipitously.

 

[G21dude]

The idea behind any security...

The idea behind any security is to make it cost more for the perp than it's worth. Any security can be beaten with enough resources, but with a 20% armed population, it's easier to flip burgers than to risk your victim (20%) or a bystander (now you're at 40% likelihood) shooting back.