Even more new gun owners

[hso]

Gun purchases accelerated in the US from 2020 to 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/20/us-gun-purchases-2020-2021-study

Gun purchases accelerated in the US during 2020-2021 compared to 2019, with more than 5 million adults becoming first-time gun owners between January 2020 and April 2021 compared to 2.4 million adults in 2019, a study on new gun ownership reveals.

The survey, conducted by Professor Matt Miller at Northeastern University and published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine, shows that between January 2019 and April this year, around 7.5m people, or 2.9% of all US adults who had not previously owned guns, purchased them.

Most, or about 5.4 million people, brought the weapons into homes that had not previously had them.

“The proportion of gun sales to new gun owners compared to existing gun owners is around the same at 20%,” Miller told the Guardian. “What changed is the volume of gun purchases.”​

 

[MedWheeler]

If there's a downside to this, it's that many of these new owners lack the responsibility that's required to insure safe handling, use, possession, and storage. This increases the frequency of "newsworthy incidents", and we all know the politicians' responses to those..

 

[Robert]

Simply owning a gun does not make one my ally. We have to put aside R and D and illustrate the importance of our rights, of every American's rights. In this case, the importance of the 2nd Amendment and how it protects us all.

 

[kcofohio]

If there's a downside to this, it's that many of these new owners lack the responsibility that's required to insure safe handling, use, possession, and storage. This increases the frequency of "newsworthy incidents", and we all know the politicians' responses to those..

And hopefully they will meet an experienced gun owner who will lead them straight.
There will always be weeds in the grass.

 

[AlexanderA]

What's significant is not the number of new owners, but their motives for buying guns. This is certainly not about hunting, target shooting, or collecting. That leaves us with motives that are bad omens for the country: either fear of crime, fear of civic unrest, or arming up for a potential civil war.

 

[Kleanbore]

What's significant is not the number of new owners, but their motives for buying guns. This is certainly not about hunting, target shooting, or collecting. That leaves us with motives that are bad omens for the country: either fear of crime, fear of civic unrest, or arming up for a potential civil war.

I do not hunt. I no longer engage in target shooting as a hobby; I am not a collector. I do not have firearms for a civil war. I would not want to rely upon one during civc unrest. I do not "fear" crime.

 

[Gun4Fun90]

Honestly I think this is a little misleading. For instance I live in Washington D.C and buying and registering a firearm is a long and grueling process. I have been shooting guns since I was a small child and I have always had access to guns if I wanted to go hunting or to the range. All I would have to do is call up any number of friends or family members that didn’t live in DC.

The difference is with the corona virus shutdowns I finally had the time on my hands to go to DC police and get my fingerprints done and get the little plastic card that allows me to “own one myself”.

So technically I am probably counted as a “new gun owners” or a “household where there were previously no guns” in those numbers but I by no means consider myself new to any of this.

I bet you will find it’s not uncommon that some of this is people that were already gun people that lived in anti gun states that makes you jump through hoops to exercise your rights the couldn’t because they work 5 days a week and the government office is closed on weekends. But with the covid shutdowns suddenly had the time to jump through those hoops.

 

[BLACKHAWKNJ]

IMHO it shows that many people reject the constant anti-gun rhetoric and fright propaganda. At the ranges I visit I have been seeing more guys with girlfriends, families, new citizens, people embracing the RKBA as part of the national culture and their heritage, whether by birth or adoption.

 

[AlexanderA]

I bet you will find it’s not uncommon that some of this is people that were already gun people that lived in anti gun states that makes you jump through hoops to exercise your rights the couldn’t because they work 5 days a week and the government office is closed on weekends. But with the covid shutdowns suddenly had the time to jump through those hoops.

That could be a factor but I'm pretty sure it's a small minority.

 

[AlexanderA]

IMHO it shows that many people reject the constant anti-gun rhetoric and fright propaganda.

The constant antigun rhetoric is precisely the reason why a lot of people buy guns. "Get them while you still can." There would be a lot fewer guns if the antigunners would just shut up. Their constant harping, in the end, has been counterproductive for their cause.

Gun sales always go up when there's a serious threat of gun control.

 

[armydog]

That leaves us with motives that are bad omens for the country: either fear of crime, fear of civic unrest, or arming up for a potential civil war.

Bad omens...maybe. But All are good motives. Glad they have joined the club.

 

[ColtPythonElite]

Now, if they could just get some ammo for their new guns...

 

[AK Hunter]

I can't blame them for wanting a gun. After seeing all the violence & shootings on TV from the pre election protests people feel unsafe & getting a gun makes them feel safer.
I just wish the salesman at the gun stores would give them a little education about how to properly hold & shoot there new firearm, but most just want to get to the next person for another sale.
I have helped a few new gun owners at the range by walking them through the safety aspects & how to load & unload their new gun.

 

[Basura Blanca]

The second link goes right to the survey methodology, which is really what matters. From that, it sounds like a "new gun owner" includes someone who may have lived in a household where others owned guns, just not the respondent themself (it's under the heading 'Measures' and 'Timing of Firearms Purchases...').

There are some interesting graphics in there too.



Existing gun owners are primarily white suburban males, relatively educated, over 45 years old, living in the South.
Not remarkable or surprising, really. The real shift between them and "new" gun owners is the shift to female purchasers though. But given the methodology, how many of these "new" gun owners are simply the significant others of existing gun owners? I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but the study was funded by the Joyce Foundation so there should be some caveats when it comes to extrapolating the data.

edit: This is slightly clarified further into it under the heading 'Newly Exposed Their Household to Firearms'.

 

[readyeddy]

While I’m glad to hear of more gun owners, the article is written as a hit piece. The so-called health professionals warn of increased suicides and increased risk to children due to more guns in households.

I think I’m going to cancel my subscription to the Anals of Internal Medicine.

 

[Kleanbore]

The second link goes right to the survey methodology, which is really what matters. From that, it sounds like a "new gun owner" includes someone who may have lived in a household where others owned guns, just not the respondent themself (it's under the heading 'Measures' and 'Timing of Firearms Purchases...').

There are some interesting graphics in there too.

View attachment 1046481

Existing gun owners are primarily white suburban males, relatively educated, over 45 years old, living in the South.
Not remarkable or surprising, really. The real shift between them and "new" gun owners is the shift to female purchasers though. But given the methodology, how many of these "new" gun owners are simply the significant others of existing gun owners? I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but the study was funded by the Joyce Foundation so there should be some caveats when it comes to extrapolating the data.

edit: This is slightly clarified further into it under the heading 'Newly Exposed Their Household to Firearms'.

Those data contradict other surveys I have seen.

 

[Airborne Falcon]

The second link goes right to the survey methodology, which is really what matters. From that, it sounds like a "new gun owner" includes someone who may have lived in a household where others owned guns, just not the respondent themself (it's under the heading 'Measures' and 'Timing of Firearms Purchases...').

There are some interesting graphics in there too.

View attachment 1046481

Existing gun owners are primarily white suburban males, relatively educated, over 45 years old, living in the South.
Not remarkable or surprising, really. The real shift between them and "new" gun owners is the shift to female purchasers though. But given the methodology, how many of these "new" gun owners are simply the significant others of existing gun owners? I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but the study was funded by the Joyce Foundation so there should be some caveats when it comes to extrapolating the data.

edit: This is slightly clarified further into it under the heading 'Newly Exposed Their Household to Firearms'.

Very interesting ... and I agree.

Matter of fact, this entire thread is very interesting. Thanks for sharing hso.

 

[herrwalther]

There are plenty of new gun owners that vote against their self interest by backing anti-gun politicians.

 

[buck460XVR]

“The proportion of gun sales to new gun owners compared to existing gun owners is around the same at 20%,” Miller told the Guardian. “What changed is the volume of gun purchases.”

.....then it means there was a sale of 25 million guns in the last year(not including those that did not need a 4473) and ammo to go with them .No wonder so many of us can't find either on our LGS shelves.

Simply owning a gun does not make one my ally.

^^^Same here.

 

[3850remhep]

Both images from March, 2020. If that wasn't panic buying, I don't know what is.The first is in Culver City (L.A.), California. My son lived there from June, 2019 to September, 2021, when he moved to South Carolina. He said he passed this shop every day and the lines were similar for several weeks. A month ago I went to visit him and my daughter-in-law to bring him a shotgun and several rifles, among which was an AR-15 which would have been illegal in California as also would be every mag owned for the rifle (20's & 30's).

While there are no doubt many new gun owners, way above an average 2 year period at least 5 years ago, including during panic periods under Clinton & Obama. However, these new owners aren't the problem, IMHO, of the shortages of ammo, powder, primers and cases. These new owners aren't suddenly also reloading at the bench. There are a great many existing owners hoarding ammo and components. With the end of the Global War on Terror in Iraq and Afghanistan, there should ne truck loads of surplus ammo. I haven't yet seen it.

 

[AlexanderA]

There are plenty of new gun owners that vote against their self interest by backing anti-gun politicians.

Most people have a variety of interests, among which gun ownership is just one. It's even possible that a person might become less supportive of gun rights once he has a gun, under the reasoning of "I've got mine, and let the devil take the hindmost." The "single issue gun voter" is less common than we might suppose.

What might rouse these new gun owners to vote pro-gun would be a straight-up ban on possession (with no grandfathering). That's why the antigunners would be wise to steer clear of that.

 

[herrwalther]

Most people have a variety of interests, among which gun ownership is just one. It's even possible that a person might become less supportive of gun rights once he has a gun, under the reasoning of "I've got mine, and let the devil take the hindmost." The "single issue gun voter" is less common than we might suppose.

Exactly. I have seen those very owners. I have my gun, gun control for everyone else. That is how Bloomberg sleeps at night, surrounded by armed guards. There are many issues I care about when voting but the 2A tops the importance list.

 

[Basura Blanca]

The "single issue gun voter" is less common than we might suppose.

Just say rare. They're sasquatches with unicorn horns. There isn't even an opportunity to vote a "pro-gun" candidate for the majority of positions in most elections. And asking someone running for, say, school board how they feel about the 2A is sub-optimal and it might make the person asking look like a wackadoodle.

Back on topic, even with sketchy statistics about new gun owners, the best we really have to hope for is just a dilution effect in the general population. Assuming the rise is real and as pronounced as we like to believe, more people owning guns vs. not indicates a trend of normalization even if the new owners are ambivalent about the 2A. That normalization is what happened with other successful niche issues (e.g. same sex marriage advocates and the pro-weed crowd) and ultimately depoliticized them making their positions more palatable to the masses. The real problem with being openly and outwardly pro-gun is the stigma that it carries because guns are perceived as an ultra-conservative icon. Whether that's true or not doesn't matter. If you're a newbie to guns and don't necessarily embrace the positions of the hard right, you're not going to go out of your way to be the next big spokesperson for the issue.

People here may hate to hear all this or may just deny it outright, but it's a good picture of reality from my own experiences dealing with non-gun people over the years.

 

[Airborne Falcon]

.....then it means there was a sale of 25 million guns in the last year(not including those that did not need a 4473) and ammo to go with them .No wonder so many of us can't find either on our LGS shelves.

Well exactly. I've been trying to convey that sentiment for months now ... as one of several reasons why this shortage will not be over anytime soon and for those waiting and waiting, especially those in need of ammo and components, you could be waiting awhile.

1 - 110 million new guns out there since 2008 ... at least 30 million new, first time, gun owners since 2012. Those are just the ones who went threw NICS. The sheer pressure from a training, facility and stockpiling perspective is mind boggling even when inserting basic minimum numbers. 100 rounds per new firearm x 100 million (not counting the existing demands that were always factored-into the supply/demand equation). It's mind boggling. I know of three ranges in my area, I know all three indoor range owners/operators well ... they have, all three, been running at above 80% capacity since Christmas of last year. They are all so busy that they no longer give 30 free minutes of range time with a purchase of a new firearm ... because they don't have-to nor can they really afford to do it anylonger. Free range time would take up all the lanes 24/7.

2 - component shortage due to overseas dependency.

3 - anti-gun legislation and EOs preventing imports.

4 - crime skyrocketing causing panic buying.

5 - supply chain issues, massive demand increases.

6 - insecurities about the future

... and really, the list could go on and on.

Prices may fluctuate by 5-10% every now and then and supply shortages may ease somewhat from time-to-time but this may be the new normal for quite some time and the numbers illustrated in this thread warn us of such.

 

[Will Munny]

Well exactly. I've been trying to convey that sentiment for months now ... as one of several reasons why this shortage will not be over anytime soon and for those waiting and waiting, especially those in need of ammo and components, you could be waiting awhile.

1 - 110 million new guns out there since 2008 ... at least 30 million new, first time, gun owners since 2012. Those are just the ones who went threw NICS. The sheer pressure from a training, facility and stockpiling perspective is mind boggling even when inserting basic minimum numbers. 100 rounds per new firearm x 100 million (not counting the existing demands that were always factored-into the supply/demand equation). It's mind boggling. I know of three ranges in my area, I know all three indoor range owners/operators well ... they have, all three, been running at above 80% capacity since Christmas of last year. They are all so busy that they no longer give 30 free minutes of range time with a purchase of a new firearm ... because they don't have-to nor can they really afford to do it anylonger. Free range time would take up all the lanes 24/7.

2 - component shortage due to overseas dependency.

3 - anti-gun legislation and EOs preventing imports.

4 - crime skyrocketing causing panic buying.

5 - supply chain issues, massive demand increases.

6 - insecurities about the future

... and really, the list could go on and on.

Prices may fluctuate by 5-10% every now and then and supply shortages may ease somewhat from time-to-time but this may be the new normal for quite some time and the numbers illustrated in this thread warn us of such.

#1 is probabally the smallest contributor to the ammunition shortage at this point. As the majority of those were acquired by persons that already owned firearms there was likely a substitution effect that took place meaning that their ammo demand was not proportionally increased. Also, while that number is measured from 2008, prices were still quite low in 2020, which further suggests that the number of firearms in circulation was a minor contributor.

I think the bulk of the current pricing issue comes down to demand shift not supply shift. While some left supply shift did happen in 2020, it really does not explain the current prices. Demand has clearly shifted right by a substantial margin, (ie. #4, #5, #6) and its hard to see any end to that in sight.