Fewer Gun Deaths - with more permits

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WildcatRegi

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I was pleasantly surprised to see a pro-gun article in todays Detroit Free Press.:)

I think the truth is getting harder for the anti-gunners to deny.

The complete article with pictures is here:

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080106/NEWS06/801060602/1008


Michigan sees fewer gun deaths — with more permits
January 6, 2008

By DAWSON BELL

FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER

Six years after new rules made it much easier to get a license to carry concealed weapons, the number of Michiganders legally packing heat has increased more than six-fold.

But dire predictions about increased violence and bloodshed have largely gone unfulfilled, according to law enforcement officials and, to the extent they can be measured, crime statistics.

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The incidence of violent crime in Michigan in the six years since the law went into effect has been, on average, below the rate of the previous six years. The overall incidence of death from firearms, including suicide and accidents, also has declined.

More than 155,000 Michiganders -- about one in every 65 -- are now authorized to carry loaded guns as they go about their everyday affairs, according to Michigan State Police records.

About 25,000 people had CCW permits in Michigan before the law changed in 2001.

"I think the general consensus out there from law enforcement is that things were not as bad as we expected," said Woodhaven Police Chief Michael Martin, cochair of the legislative committee for the Michigan Association of Chiefs of Police. "There are problems with gun violence. But ... I think we can breathe a sigh of relief that what we anticipated didn't happen."

John Lott, a visiting professor at the University of Maryland who has done extensive research on the role of firearms in American society, said the results in Michigan since the law changed don't surprise him.

Academic studies of concealed weapons laws that generally allow citizens to obtain permits have shown different results, Lott said. About two-thirds of the studies suggest the laws reduce crime; the rest show no net effect, he said.

But no peer-reviewed study has ever shown that crime increases when jurisdictions enact changes like those put in place by the Legislature and then-Gov. John Engler in 2000, Lott said.

In Michigan and elsewhere (liberal permitting is the rule in about 40 states), those who seek CCW permits, get training and pay licensing fees tend to be "the kind of people who don't break laws," Lott said.

Nationally, the rate of CCW permits being revoked is very low, he said. State Police reports in Michigan indicate that 2,178 permits have been revoked or suspended since 2001, slightly more than 1% of those issued.

Another State Police report found that 175 Michigan permit holders were convicted of a crime, most of them nonviolent, requiring revocation or suspension of their permits between July 1, 2005, and June 30, 2006.

But even if more armed citizens have not wreaked havoc, some critics of Michigan's law chafe at how it was passed: against stiff opposition in a lame duck legislative session and attached to an appropriation that nullified efforts at repeal by referendum.

Kenneth Levin, a West Bloomfield physician, was one of those critics. In a letter to the Free Press in July 2001, he referred to the "inevitable first victim of road or workplace rage as a result of this law."

Last month, Levin said he suspected "it probably hasn't turned out as bad as I thought. I don't think I was wrong, but my worst fears weren't realized."

But the manner in which the law was enacted was nevertheless "sneaky" and "undemocratic," Levin said.

Other opponents remain convinced that it has contributed to an ongoing epidemic of firearms-related death and destruction.

Shikha Hamilton of Grosse Pointe, president of the Michigan chapter of the anti-gun group Million Moms March, said she believes overall gun violence (including suicide and accidental shootings) is up in Michigan since 2001. Many incidents involving CCW permit holders have not been widely reported, she said.

The most publicized recent case came early in 2007, when a 40-year-old Macomb County woman fired from her vehicle toward the driver of a truck she claimed had cut her off on I-94. Bernadette Headd was convicted of assault and sentenced to two years in prison.

Hamilton said that even if gun violence has ebbed, it remains pervasive, tragic and unnecessary. At the least, a more liberal concealed weapons law means there are more guns in homes and cars and on the street, she said, and more potential for disaster.

Advocates for the law argue that there is nothing equivocal about the experience of the CCW permit holders who have warded off threats and, in a few instances, saved themselves from harm.

In September, a 36-year-old Troy man killed an armed 18-year-old assailant who, with three other suspects, attempted to steal his car outside Detroit Police headquarters.

Michelle Reurink, 40, a consultant in Lansing, got her CCW permit last year, not so much because she felt an imminent threat to her well-being, she said, but because she's a strong believer in the Constitution's Second Amendment -- the right to bear arms.

"The primary reason I got it is because I feel like I have the right to have it," she said.

Still, she doesn't often carry her gun during her daily routine, though she takes it when she and her husband go on their boat, she said.

Having the license and a handgun makes her feel more secure in her home (where no one needs a CCW license to have a gun), she said. She also feels more secure because of the required training, including self-defense lessons, she took as part of the license application.

Mark Cortis of Royal Oak, who conducts concealed weapons license training and sits on the Oakland County gun board, said he believes the benefits of an armed citizenry are evident in small ways almost every day, as permit holders deter trouble and live more confidently.

"The police just can't protect you," Cortis said. "If you have to call 911, it's probably already too late."
 
Nice article.

Is the Detroit Free Press felt to be liberal, like most other major city newspapers? Either way, kudos for them.
 
The Free Press has been rabidly antigun. Their editorial cartoonist is a real zealot. Loved the comment from the doctor about where what he predicted didn't happen, but he wasn't wrong. Also the comment from the Couple of Mom's March where she doesn't have any facts, but she is right too.
 
All those antis seem to believe that there's a criminal somewhere who is actually hurt personally by gun control. Criminals love them. It's a one sided truce, really. We give up our freedoms so they can take advantage of them easier and with more impunity.
 
"I think the general consensus out there from law enforcement is that things were not as bad as we expected," said Woodhaven Police Chief Michael Martin, cochair of the legislative committee for the Michigan Association of Chiefs of Police. "There are problems with gun violence. But ... I think we can breathe a sigh of relief that what we anticipated didn't happen."

Again a police chief thinks that the populace is to stupid or to dangerous to own firearms. If they would look around at other states they would see their fears never happened there either.
 
Shikha Hamilton of Grosse Pointe, president of the Michigan chapter of the anti-gun group Million Moms March, said she believes overall gun violence (including suicide and accidental shootings) is up in Michigan since 2001. Many incidents involving CCW permit holders have not been widely reported, she said.
[...]
Hamilton said that even if gun violence has ebbed, it remains pervasive, tragic and unnecessary. At the least, a more liberal concealed weapons law means there are more guns in homes and cars and on the street, she said, and more potential for disaster.

So she believes overall "gun violence" is up, in spite of the statistical record. It's not likely she lets any other facts get in the way of her beliefs, either.

What really makes my head hurt is trying to comprehend "many incidents involving CCW permit holders have not been widely reported." While I have not checked every police report against the total Michigan newspaper archives, it is my belief that the press would not let the opportunity go by to report on a CWP-involved shooting.

What galls me the most is that antis say stuff like "at the least, a more liberal concealed weapons law means there are more guns in homes and cars and on the street, she said, and more potential for disaster" but argue against someone saying "At the least, a more liberal drivers licence law means there are more cars on the street and more potential for drunk drivers killing people."

It just makes my head hurt.:banghead:

stay safe.

skidmark
 
The Million Moms president lives in Grosse Pointe!:rolleyes::D

What's the most serious crime in Grosse Pointe? Not serving super expensive coffee at the Homeowners' Association meeting? Not having the garbage cans returned to the hiding place within 5 minutes of trash pick up?

I love how the article highlights the fact that antis like Hamilton do not trust her fellow citizens. She would rather trust the criminals to behave themselves that you. She projects her own weakness and fear into you.

Good lesson to learn about how antis think.
 
Academic studies of concealed weapons laws that generally allow citizens to obtain permits have shown different results, Lott said. About two-thirds of the studies suggest the laws reduce crime; the rest show no net effect, he said.

More correctly stated would be that crime had gone down in 2/3 or the cases and had no change in the other 1/3, but none of those studies can actually show that the trends seen are causative. What you have is a correlation, not a causation.

It is naive to believe that a single factor, concealed carrry permits, implemented by a miniscule amount of the population, produces any sort of significant change (good or bad) in a high complex issue such as crime that is more directly affected by widescale issues such as socio-economic trends that affect much more of the population.

Strangely, violent crime is up in Michigan at least in the last couple of years for which data are complied)...

From 2004-2005, Michigan Violent Crime is actually up.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_04.html

From 2005-2006, Michigan Violent Crime is actually up.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_04.html
 
The Million Moms president lives in Grosse Pointe!

It really irks me that people who live a protected life of affluence are some of the first ones to disarm the "great unwashed". I guess they fear the common man for not being like them.
 
More correctly stated would be that crime had gone down in 2/3 or the cases and had no change in the other 1/3, but none of those studies can actually show that the trends seen are causative. What you have is a correlation, not a causation.
Which seems strange why pro gun people love john lott so much. They're quick to jump on correlation not necessarily being a cause in other statistics but as soon as it helps their point, concealed carry DOES actually impact the crime rate. We shouldn't need to drop to that level to support our cause.
 
The purpose of the elaborate econometric regressions run by Lott, his supporters, and his critics, is to allow for factors known or believed to affect the crime rate (like arrest rates, conviction rates, income, street drug prices, etc) to try to isolate causation from correlation. Quite frankly, econometric regression is a very esoteric field. NAS suggested in 2004 that a better test of Lott's thesis would be a survey of felons to determine what impact right-to-carry had on their behaviour. The previous NIJ felon survey was written up by James D. Wright and Peter Rossi Armed and Dangerous (Aldine 1986) and was pretty favorable to the idea that armed citizens do deter a lot of criminal behaviour: their sample of felons feared being shot by a victim more than they feared arrest or conviction: a significant percentage reported canceling planned crimes based on belief the intended victim was armed.
 
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their sample of felons feared being shot by a victim more than they feared arrest or conviction: a significant percentage reported canceling planned crimes based on belief the intended victim was armed.

Bits and pieces of an FBI report were posted on the net a year or 2 ago with some of this info.

Anyone have the whole report or know where to get it?
I can't even remember what it was called but it was basically a survey of people in prison asking various gun/crime related questions.
 
Felons Study....

I know there was a study done of Florida convicts back in 1986 I believe, but I'm not sure who did it. I think I saw the references to it on this site, tho.
 
The Detroit Free Press (DFP) is just as liberal as any other big city newspaper.

However, even a blind squirrel can find a few nuts, so the DFP occasionally publishes an informative and unbiased article like this one.
 
Armed and Considered Dangerous: A Survey of Felons and Their Firearms
by James D. Wright and Peter H. Rossi (Aldine De Gruyter, 1986) which
was the result of a government survey (And now I'm quoting memory) of
1874 convicts in eighteen prisons in ten states. There is also a
second edition announced for 2008.

This was not Wright and Rossi's first book on guns, crime and gun
control: that was Under the Gun, by James D. Wright, Peter H. Rossi,
and Kathleen Daly (Aldine De Gruyter, 1983; revised ed. FSU 1985) .
I helped typeset that book at Kingsport Press in 1982 and retained a
set of Videocomp page proofs of the first chapter (essentially an
abstract (summary) of the other chapters of the book.) It, too,
developed from a governemnt study that was started under the Carter
administration.

Wright and Rossi stated that they started their study as staunch
liberals believing in gun control. Their study convinced them that
the conventional liberal wisdom on gun control was just flat wrong.
 
Jerry Patterson wrote the Texas Concealed Handgun Law that
took effect in 1996 (Texas Senate Bill 60) and quoted some
of his critics ten years later:
The effect of the Concealed Handgun Law has been so positive, it
has converted some of its most outspoken initial critics.

John Holmes, former Harris County district attorney, wrote to me
several years after the passage of the law.

"As you know, I was very outspoken in my opposition to the
passage of the Concealed Handgun Act. I did not feel that such
legislation was in the public interest and presented a clear and
present danger to law abiding citizens by placing more handguns
on our streets," Holmes wrote. "Boy was I wrong. Our experience
in Harris County , and indeed state-wide, has proven my initial
fears absolutely groundless."

Glenn White, president of the Dallas Police Association, shared
this view. "I lobbied against the law in 1993 and 1995 because I
thought it would lead to wholesale armed conflict. That hasn't
happened," White told the Dallas Morning News. "All the horror
stories I thought would come to pass didn't happen. No bogeyman.
I think it's worked out well, and that says good things about the
citizens who have permits. I'm a convert."
 
their sample of felons feared being shot by a victim more than they feared arrest or conviction: a significant percentage reported canceling planned crimes based on belief the intended victim was armed.

Yes, most felons are not as likely to attempt to rob or otherwise attack a person they believe to be armed. This means having specific knowledge of a given target (either real or believed).

However, passing concealed carry permit laws don't do anything to really increase the fear in criminals. The criminals don't know who carries and so don't have the necessary specific knowledge that would stop them from attacking.

Concealed carry permit holders usually don't comprise more than just a few percent of the population and so the chance of a criminal randomly encountering an armed CCW person is still extremely low. In the case of Michigan, 98.5% of the population doesn't have a permit.

So Lott claims there is a tie between gun death decline and number of permits. It was noted that suicides from guns also dropped. Why would concealed carry permits reduce suicide by firearm? Is it because armed CCW people are stopping people from committing suicides? Not likely.
 
Ultimately Lott admitted eventaully violent crime would cease if enough areas had concealed carry permits but property crime would not decrease significantly. However I dont really care if my house gets robbed while I am away its sad but at least no one is hurt.

I can give plenty of anecedotes where criminals have avioded areas that have high percentages of concealed carry permits.
 
Hmmm ... here in DumbLand (NY), you can get a license --- without ever having fired a gun (much less a handgun), or taken a safety or operations course. You can still get the license, though. They take a lot of money, and a lot of time. And there are some very choice local politicians who make some very amusing noises. But you can NOT buy a Taser. That would be ... wrong.

On the other hand, there are virtually no "evil deeds" committed by licensees. Anywhere. Why is that so seldom-mentioned?

Those who don't live by laws are "sociopathic." By their own definitions, laws do not apply to them. Interesting, that so many folks are bent on making more laws that don't apply to those who violate them. Guess it would be bad politics to deal in reality ...
 
Fewer gun deaths, with more gun permits
Awhile back, the Canadian government commssioned a study to
check the effectiveness of their national gun registry program.
They compared the Canadian prairie provinces --Alberta, Saskatchewan
and Manitoba--to the neighboring US prairie states--Idaho, Montana,
North Dakota and Minnesota. The American states had twice the
rate of gun possession, but two/thirds the rate of crime. Or, the
Canadian provinces had half the rate of gun possession but
one and one/half the rate of crime. The states and provinces were
neighbors with similar demographics; the big differences were the
US more guns, less crime v Canada less guns, more crime. Yes,
that is just a correlation, but it is opposite the correlation claimed by
Michael Moore in Bowling for Columbine about the US v Canada
over guns. Of course the Canadian study compared apples to apples
(prairie states to prairie provinces) and Moore compared apples to
oranges (prairie provinces to Chicago, DC, et al).

From what I have heard and read, Canada has had massive civil
disobediance to the national gun registry, with law enforcement refusing
to enforce it and gun owners holding rallies to publicly burn registration
forms. Good news about guns is doubleplusungood and gets consigned
to an Orwellian memory hole.
 
However, passing concealed carry permit laws don't do anything to really increase the fear in criminals. The criminals don't know who carries and so don't have the necessary specific knowledge that would stop them from attacking.

The FBI report that was let out a couple of years ago refutes that, I am trying to find the thing. It was posted here and some other places in .pdf with lots of colored charts etc.

Sure wish someone had a copy, it was very enlightening on what criminals thought related to guns.

ETA: Calguns has a link to the files, they are huge but worth downloading:

http://www.calgunlaws.com/article-480.html
 
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