Filibuster Showdown Looms In Senate on next court pick

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Desertdog

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The Dems want a "moderate" like O'Conner. The Dems certainly didn't replace a conservative with a conservative when they nominated Ginsburg.

Filibuster Showdown Looms In Senate
Democrats Prepare For Next Court Pick
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/27/AR2005092701652.html
By Dan Balz and Amy Goldstein

Washington Post Staff Writers

The upcoming battle over a successor to Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor threatens to plunge the Senate into another bitter confrontation over filibusters and the "nuclear option," with Democrats already threatening to use any means possible to thwart President Bush if he nominates someone they regard as too conservative.

The roster of those threatening a filibuster includes liberal and moderate Democrats, supporters and opponents of John G. Roberts Jr., Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, and at least one of the seven Democratic senators who were part of the bipartisan "Gang of 14."

Democrats have splintered almost evenly over Roberts's nomination as chief justice, leading to frustration among party activists who think their elected leaders did not put up a serious fight against him. Pollsters have told party leaders that a show of opposition against Bush's next nominee could be crucial to restoring enthusiasm among the rank and file on the left.

In an interview, Dean said Democratic unity is essential in the upcoming battle and that the party "absolutely" should be prepared to filibuster -- holding unlimited debate and preventing an up-or-down vote -- Bush's next high court nominee, if he taps someone they find unacceptably ideological. He cited appellate court judges Priscilla R. Owen and Janice Rogers Brown as two who would be likely to trigger such opposition.

"Those people are clearly not qualified to sit on the Supreme Court, and we're going to do everything we can to make sure they don't," he said. "If we lose, better to go down fighting and standing for what we believe in, because we will not win an election if the public doesn't think we'll stand up for what we believe in."

The possibility of a filibuster comes only a few months after an agreement that supposedly eliminated such threats. The Gang of 14 agreement barred filibusters against judicial nominees except under "extraordinary circumstances." The compromise also blocked Republican threats to change Senate rules to bar the use of filibusters to block judicial nominations, a step considered so drastic it became known as the "nuclear option."

Owen and Brown were cleared for confirmation to the appellate courts as part of that agreement, and Republicans said then that Democratic acquiescence in their confirmation meant the opposition party could not use ideology to bar future Bush nominees. But Democrats rejected that interpretation and said this week that Owen, Brown and several others believed to be under consideration by the president face a likely filibuster if nominated to the high court.

A spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) declined to issue a blanket filibuster threat but joined Dean in saying that a nominee judged more conservative than Roberts will face vigorous opposition because the successor to O'Connor -- the key swing vote on many issues -- could shift the ideological balance of the court.

"A nominee more extreme than Judge Roberts would be unacceptable to the Democratic caucus," said Reid spokesman Jim Manley, who added later: "You could expect a major fight on the Senate floor."

Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.), a member of the Gang of 14 who plans to vote for Roberts, said a filibuster will be warranted if "the president appoints someone who brings a right-wing ideology and is going to use the court to advance their views."

In an interview yesterday, Salazar said: "From my personal point of view, anyone who is going to be an ideologue, who is going to have right-wing views, falls within that category of extraordinary circumstances." He said that although he would attempt to defeat such a nominee by enlisting opposition among moderate Republicans, "a filibuster has to remain a procedural possibility."

Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), also a member of the Gang of 14, said he hopes White House consultation with senators would persuade the president to select a consensus nominee. "If he sends over someone who looks like a conservative ideologue, who's going to be an activist on the court, that could be very problematic," he said.

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), who was instrumental in forging the May agreement, said: "I'm not anxious to speculate what might trigger an extraordinary circumstance. If there is one, I'll know it when I see it. It's just very difficult to try to do that without a particular nominee in place."

The Senate is scheduled to vote on Thursday on Roberts's nomination to become the 17th chief justice of the United States, and White House officials have said Bush will move quickly after the vote to announce his nominee to succeed O'Connor. That could mean an announcement by Friday or possibly early next week.

If Democrats threaten a filibuster, Republicans are likely to respond by bringing back the nuclear option. Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) and Mike DeWine (Ohio) have said that if any Democrats in the Gang of 14 join a filibuster, they will support invoking the nuclear option, providing enough votes to assure passage.

Democrats think Bush is too weak politically to take on a difficult fight over the court. Some also argue that Republicans would lose politically if they change the rules to force through a nominee.

The speculation about a filibuster comes even before the coalition of liberal groups leading the opposition to Bush's court picks has settled on a strategy to press on Democratic senators in the next nomination fight. "No one is talking about filibuster at this point," said Nan Aron, president of the Alliance for Justice. "It's much too early."

Dean said a straight party-line vote would show Democratic unity but would not be sufficient to block a nominee. "That's not a fight to the death," he said. "A fight to the death is a filibuster, which is the only way we can reject an unqualified nominee -- because the Republicans don't seem to have any qualms about putting unqualified people in all manner of positions all over the government."

Staff writers Michael A. Fletcher and Jim VandeHei contributed to this report.
 
If the next nominee is not a strict constructionist with a track record, there is no point in voting Republican for president any more. Might as well vote third party. Supreme Court nominees was the only reason I voted for Bush the second time around. In no way is he a conservative regarding issues that count, so all that was left motivating me to vote for him was his promise to appoint strict constructionist SCOTUS justices.
 
The nomination after Roberts is the reason why so many people for so many years has worked the republican party. It was assumed by electing a republican majority we would have a chance to stem the supreme court tide. Democrats see the next nomination as their last chance at controlling a lever of power in DC for the foreseeable future. Would it not be ironic if Bush in his drive to be a compassionate conservative (WETHTM) he seats the very kind of lawyer his base rejected.

I think he as a chance to do serious damage to the existing Democrat power structure with the right decision. He also has the chance to end the conservative movement in government. He's already wounded it severely with his spending and big government penchant. Give in to the left side of the spectrum and his base goes away giving his party a kick to the shins. Given in to the demands of his base and he effectively takes the Democrat party out of the governance game for a while or at least until it figures out a different strategy.

He's going to pay a price regardless of the decision he makes. He might as well do what he wants. . . . . .and therein lies the rub. I simply do not know what the guy believes.

A lot of commentators think the Democrat party is ripe for an overhaul. Maybe so. Republicans are in no better shape. At least Democrats have an identifiable belief system.
 
Lol, Roberts is just as moderate as O'Conner, if not 'more moderate'. If they're gonna filibuster, may as well put up a true ultra-strict constructionist/conservative as the sacrificial Bork-lamb, so that the next one can get through when the public tires of the stonewalling.
 
"Roberts is just as moderate as O'Conner" Purhaps, but there are plenty of indicators to the contrary. I think he is well known to insiders and has prepared himself wisely to be a scotus judge. He has experienced the scotus from the inside and wanted to be there himself. Now he will be at the helm. Time will tell, but I think the evidence says he is an originalist. Lets hope as the future of the nation rests on his shoulders.

Change can be a slow thing. We didn't get nearly socialist overnight and we won't get nearly free overnight either. Well, not at least without revolution, which is a poor choice of last resort.

I hope bush nominates Janice Rogers Brown, as it will be a strong signal indeed. Why pander your base away when you can pour petrol on the fire? That will make good tv too. Wouldn't that confirmation hearing be interesting?

Condeleza Rice would make an interesting choice as well. :D
 
If the next nominee is not a strict constructionist with a track record, there is no point in voting Republican for president any more.

Give in to the left side of the spectrum and his base goes away giving his party a kick to the shins. Given in to the demands of his base and he effectively takes the Democrat party out of the governance game for a while or at least until it figures out a different strategy.

I'm having a hard time imagining Bush nominating anyone other than a so-called "centrist," which is to say: another Kennedy. I sincerely hope I'm mistaken.
 
The Real Hawkeye, this whole filibuster scenario is the point that I was trying to convey in our back-and-forth on another thread.

It was my sincere hope that Schumer, Reid, Kennedy, and the rest would try to filibuster Roberts, a man who comes across to the public as very moderate. (Is he? We'll just have to wait and see).

I had hoped that the above was GW's game plan, but it appears that the Democrats have turned it upside-down. They now, for the most part, look reasonable to the public for affirming Roberts, and leave themselves all the wiggle room in the world to oppose anyone more conservative or "constructionist" from here on out.

And I still do not think that every Republican will stand behind Bush if he nominates a Thomas.

"I'm not anxious to speculate what might trigger an extraordinary circumstance. If there is one, I'll know it when I see it."

Hmmm, sounds like the legal grounds for defining pornography. I wonder if Nelson has any up-close and personal experience with that.
 
Lol, Roberts is just as moderate as O'Conner, if not 'more moderate'.

No offense; but on what do you base this statement? I find it hard to believe that someone who clerked for Rehnquist and was a close friend of Rehnquist is likely to be "more moderate" than O'Connor.
 
Bush doesn't really like confrontation. His first inclination in this situation would be to nominate someone who wouldn't cause a total floor fight. That's what I would expect if all things were equal. But the things is, they aren't.

Bush is taking a lot of flak over Iraq. He has taken a lot of abuse over FEMA and the hurricanes. His job approval rating is down to 40%. But here's the important part: those 40% are almost all people you could identify as "loyal Republicans." These are the base of the President's support.

I personally think there is a battle within the Adminstration between these two points of view. There will be some who say they don't want a big fight that will make them look like "extremists." But the other side is strong. They are going to say over and over again that the President HAS to remain loyal to his base. They are his only supporters right now. Think about it; if the President nominated a "middle of the road" candidate, would that make some Democrats decide to vote for a Republican next time? Heck no. In other words, the Republicans in this case have nothing to gain by nominating someone the Democrats like. But they have plenty to lose if they nominate someone the GOP base doesn't like.

I _think_ we are going to see a "more conservative" nominee for this seat. And there is going to be a fight. My only hope is that someone in the Democratic Party will recognize the fact that it is a fight they can't win with a filibuster. Lawyers are supposed to plan their actions based on the anticipated actions of their opposite number. If the Democrats filibuster, the GOP is going to cut them off at the knees. It's a fight the Democrats can't win. Would they really be willing to take such a public loss purely in the hope that they can gain votes on it in future elections? Some would but hopefully some sane members will prevail.

My only regret is that the "more conservative" side of the new nominee is likely to be of the "pro-life" or "anti-Roe vs Wade" variety. I want someone who believes in limits on government and is libertarian in outlook. And a libertarian says that it should be up to the individual whether or not they want an abortion. So my fear is that Bush and the GOP is going to end up with a huge fight and that it is going to be about abortion and I don't care!!! They need to remember that the GOP base is BOTH the religious right AND libertarians.

Gregg
 
If the next nominee is not a strict constructionist with a track record, there is no point in voting Republican for president any more.

I agree.

The only reason I have hung in there is for this moment in time. 9/11 and the war on terror happened and I was glad the GOP were in power, but that wasn't my main reason for sticking with the GOP.

For me it has been the Supreme Court all along. Roberts doesn't inspire me, time will tell. This next pick and their rulings thereafter will determine whether I ever vote GOP again.
 
If the next nominee is not a strict constructionist with a track record, there is no point in voting Republican for president any more.
I agree as well. This is a once in a lifetime chance to set the court back in the right direction. I'll have little compassion for a party that squanders this critical opportunity.
 
I _think_ we are going to see a "more conservative" nominee for this seat.

I agree - Bush can't afford to alienate his base, he's still got an agressive agenda he'd like to implement.
 
Good analysis by Tulsamal.

Now...

1. Since a U.S. District Court judge recently sided with the NRA and GOA to basically overturn the New Orleans P.D.'s illegal CONFISCATION of citizens' firearms, and...

2. That case, or an appeal similar to it, has a real possibility to come before the SCOTUS in the future...

Then, let's press our senators (especially if one of yours sits on the Judiciary Committee) to ask THESE questions of Bush's next nominee:

1. Do you believe the 2nd Amendment guarantees an INDIVIDUAL right, or a (*ahem*/For The Children/Common Good) COLLECTIVE right?

2. And, do you believe that local, state, or federal agencies have the Constitutionally-legal authority to CONFISCATE those guns under certain "emergency" scenarios?

3. And, if you believe that such confiscatory powers are Constitutional, do you believe that gun owner REGISTRATION or similar data base methods are constitutionally acceptable to facilitate any such "emergency" confiscation?

Come to think of it, I sure hope President Bush is asking this of his finalists. DON'T YOU?

Note to Mr. Bush:
Alberto Gonzalez already flunked the test with his revealing (Ballistic-Illiterate) remarks about eeevil assault weapons... thus placing himself in the category of anti-2A "centrists" who believe the 2A is all about protecting duck hunters'/sportsmens' rights.
 
Desertdog, I actually could forsee Dianne Fineswine asking some variations of these (above) questions. However, I'm sure she'd be positing them from the perspective of an indignant Lefty, hot to paint the nominee as a Protector Of Those Right-Wing Vigilante Gun Nuts.

And that could be a good thing.

Because it would then force the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee -- and perhaps the entire Senate -- to fish or cut-bait on the Second Amendment... to support the nominee (if his/her answers reflect a strong 2A ideology)... or expose themselves as gun-grabbing RINOs.

Speaking as an ex-Californian, you have my sympathies, pardner.
 
I think the nominee will be another one whose position on abortion cannot be clearly determined and who has no history of judicial activisim or advocacy of same. That would be one who demonstrates discipline with the law and no apparent personal ideology.
 
If the next nominee is not a strict constructionist with a track record, there is no point in voting Republican for president any more. Might as well vote third party.
Then you get Hillary? or a Kerry? PULEEZE!

I wish the Republicans would get a pair (plain and simple) and FORCE through the nominee.

If the Dems filibuster, use the "nuclear" option. Be plain spoken to the media, after you tell them that the Democrats have LOST THE ELECTIONS...
 
Note to Mr. Bush:
Alberto Gonzalez already flunked the test with his revealing (Ballistic-Illiterate) remarks about eeevil assault weapons... thus placing himself in the category of anti-2A "centrists" who believe the 2A is all about protecting duck hunters'/sportsmens' rights.

Actually, as I have pointed out before, Gonzales said pretty much the exact same thing that Ashcroft said during his confirmation hearings and Ashcroft went on to direct the Department of Justice towards an individual rights view of the Second Amendment. So we would be foolish to base our opinion of Gonzales just on that remark.

I don't think Gonzales has anywhere near the same commitment to the Second Amendment that Ashcroft does; but using their remarks at confirmation hearings as a guide isn't a good way to determine that it seems.
 
Perhaps you are right. But I oppose Gonzales because he was affiliated at a high level with a racist organization for which he has yet to admit affiliation or regret his involvement. SCOTUS is an inappropriate business location for racists.
 
I wish the Republicans would get a pair (plain and simple) and FORCE through the nominee.

If the Dems filibuster, use the "nuclear" option. Be plain spoken to the media, after you tell them that the Democrats have LOST THE ELECTIONS...

That's basically my wish as well. The GOP won a majority in 2000. Of course 9/11 came along and we had to try to all act together. But that fell apart over Iraq and it isn't going to come back. Then the GOP was elected to an even bigger majority in 2004. But, in many ways, they still act like a minority party. They will "act tough" on one or two small things but then quickly back down when the Democrats run to the media. What's the point of being the majority if you don't overrule the minority in order to pass some of the programs you have campaigned for long and hard?

For instance, the whole "school choice and vouchers" thing. I'm not really sure whether it would work or not. But the GOP has run on it over and over. The system we have now is a disaster. I would _expect_ the GOP to at least TRY to start implementing their plans. But they allow the Democrats to protest and water down until we aren't EVER going to know whether it will work or not. The only way to tell for sure is to try it. We can't be worse off than we are now. If it doesn't work, we can always come back or go to something else.

But it takes leadership. Leadership that can handle conflict. Maybe a President who can even veto a piece of legislation on occasion!! Or a budget that is so brimming with pork it is a national disgrace. Why the hell can't Bush ever use his powers to strike some of that stuff out?! It's is probably his worst weakness: he just hates to be directly confrontational. FDR or LBJ either one didn't have that problem!

Gregg
 
One of my pet peeves with the Senate Republicans is that every time the Dems start talking about filibuster, they cut and run. For all the talk, there hasn't BEEN a real filibuster, only the THREAT of one. I would love to see Ted "The Swimmer" or Robert Byrd actually standing there for hours on end talking away. Given their age and physical condition, I don't think that they have the stamina. It's my gut feeling that too many Republican senators just don't want to have to stay on the floor long enough to force any Democrat filibuster to quickly run out of steam. Their own physical comfort would appear to be more important than the needs of the country. :barf:

One man's interpretation, FWIW

emc
 
I would love to see Ted "The Swimmer" or Robert Byrd actually standing there for hours on end talking away.
The problem is the fact it does not work this way any more. They call for a filibuster and then it takes 60 votes to bring it up for a vote. It would be nice if they did have to keep talking.

This is why they are talking about a "nuclear option" to force an up or down vote on judicial nominees.

According to the constitution a candidate need 51 votes to be confirmed, but by pulling a filibuster the candidate suddenly needs 60 votes to to be nominated.
 
Desert Dog -- yeah, I realize the law and the political agendas. My point is this.

1. EVERYONE who has a brain knows the majority of the Mainstream Media is Liberal...

2. Who cares what they say about the nominee, or how the baaaad Repubwicans beat up on the Demogogs to get him or her appointed?

3. In the final analysis, the politically interested and astute understand the question. The Sheeple don't. Any brouhaha caused by the Media over this will go away in time, because the Media will lose the interest of the Sheeple.
 
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