Marshall
Member
Absolutely, what comes across his desk, he either approves and lets fly, or veto's and kills it. I see a mountain of pork that would be cut.
Fred Thompson Mega-Thread (Merged)
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Marshall
Member
Fred Thompson now tied with Giuliani at top of GOP field
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/06/rasmussen_poll__3.html
Rasmussen poll:
Fred Thompson now tied with Giuliani at top of GOP field
Just hours after The Los Angeles Times report that its polling shows Fred Thompson now in second place among Republican presidential contenders, Rasmussen Reports has this to say:
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has to share his spot atop the field of Republican presidential hopefuls this week. The newest face in the race, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, is now tied with Giuliani.
Rasmussen's latest automated national poll of like Republican primary voters and caucus-goers shows:
• Giuliani was the choice of 24%, vs. 23% a week ago.
• Thompson is also the choice of 24%, vs. his 17% support a week ago.
• Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain were tied at third, with 11% support each (vs. 15% a week ago for Romney and 14% for McCain).
Rasmussen says its survey of 633 "likely Republican primary voters," which includes some independents, has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
As we have noted before, there is some dispute over whether Rasmussen's automated polling -- meaning the telephone calls are made by machines, not people -- is more or less accurate than more traditional methods. See this Mystery Pollster discussion of the issue.
Rasmussen's analysis of the Thompson numbers?
It is not unusual for a candidate to gain ground in the polls when they first announce their intentions. However, Thompson's rise has been meteoric.
Monday, Rasmussen reported little change on the Democratic side of the presidential sweepstakes.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/06/rasmussen_poll__3.html
Rasmussen poll:
Fred Thompson now tied with Giuliani at top of GOP field
Just hours after The Los Angeles Times report that its polling shows Fred Thompson now in second place among Republican presidential contenders, Rasmussen Reports has this to say:
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has to share his spot atop the field of Republican presidential hopefuls this week. The newest face in the race, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, is now tied with Giuliani.
Rasmussen's latest automated national poll of like Republican primary voters and caucus-goers shows:
• Giuliani was the choice of 24%, vs. 23% a week ago.
• Thompson is also the choice of 24%, vs. his 17% support a week ago.
• Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain were tied at third, with 11% support each (vs. 15% a week ago for Romney and 14% for McCain).
Rasmussen says its survey of 633 "likely Republican primary voters," which includes some independents, has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
As we have noted before, there is some dispute over whether Rasmussen's automated polling -- meaning the telephone calls are made by machines, not people -- is more or less accurate than more traditional methods. See this Mystery Pollster discussion of the issue.
Rasmussen's analysis of the Thompson numbers?
It is not unusual for a candidate to gain ground in the polls when they first announce their intentions. However, Thompson's rise has been meteoric.
Monday, Rasmussen reported little change on the Democratic side of the presidential sweepstakes.
PressCheck
Member
Marshall
Member
Fred Thompson (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
Fred Thompson (R)
43%
Hillary Clinton (D)
48%
He's only 5% back, here's a victory in the making.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/clinton_leads_romney_and_thompson
Fred Thompson (R)
43%
Hillary Clinton (D)
48%
He's only 5% back, here's a victory in the making.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/clinton_leads_romney_and_thompson
So far from the pile that is currently available, I still am for Thompson.
Yes, you do have to judge folks by their previous actions, but you must also take change into consideration.
I believed a lot of things differently in as little as a few weeks ago. So what I'm saying, is people do change their views.
On another note, is it possible, with the folks planning the N.A.U., that spending the time and money securing the borders would be a waste if they are only planning to dissolve the borders in a short while?
Could that be why it appears nothing is really happening at the borders?
Thompson stated in one interview that he is not so concerned about the 12 million illegals that are now here, but doing something about the next 12 million to follow.
Yes, you do have to judge folks by their previous actions, but you must also take change into consideration.
I believed a lot of things differently in as little as a few weeks ago. So what I'm saying, is people do change their views.
On another note, is it possible, with the folks planning the N.A.U., that spending the time and money securing the borders would be a waste if they are only planning to dissolve the borders in a short while?
Could that be why it appears nothing is really happening at the borders?
Thompson stated in one interview that he is not so concerned about the 12 million illegals that are now here, but doing something about the next 12 million to follow.
Thompson leads Guliani in new poll
Someone who's not even running is beating Rudy.
Ron Paul comes in at below 3% if you read below.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary
2008 Republican Presidential Primary
National Poll: Thompson 28% Giuliani 27%
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
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There’s change at the top in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.
It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback are each the top choice for 2% of the likely voters.
The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll to exclude former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a candidate. Gingrich earned 7% support in last week’s polling but has recently made statements indicating he is not likely to enter the 2008 race as candidate.
Giuliani remains the most well-liked candidate in either party. He is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans nationwide and unfavorably by 15%. Thompson, not as well known, is the only other candidate with so few Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The actor turned Senator turned actor again is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by 14%.
Among Republicans, Romney and McCain both have lower favorables and higher unfavorables than the frontrunners. For Romney, those GOP numbers are 56% favorable and 28% unfavorable. McCain, among the nation’s best known political figures, is viewed favorably by 55% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%.
While Giuliani is well liked, only 21% of Republicans view him as politically conservative. Twice as many, 42%, believe that Thompson is politically conservative.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.
In some states, independent voters are allowed to participate in Republican primaries. In others, only Republicans can participate. Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%.
McCain’s recent decline in the polls has been tied closely to his support for the unpopular immigration reform bill. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of what happened to the McCain campaign noted that the man once considered a maverick is now the candidate most closely aligned with President Bush on two hot-button issues—the War in Iraq and immigration. That linkage is problematic when just 27% of voters nationwide say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq and only 15% give him favorable reviews on the immigration issue.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Democrat Nomination Process every Monday and on the Republican contest every Tuesday. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly.
Someone who's not even running is beating Rudy.
Ron Paul comes in at below 3% if you read below.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary
2008 Republican Presidential Primary
National Poll: Thompson 28% Giuliani 27%
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Advertisment
There’s change at the top in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.
It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback are each the top choice for 2% of the likely voters.
The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll to exclude former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a candidate. Gingrich earned 7% support in last week’s polling but has recently made statements indicating he is not likely to enter the 2008 race as candidate.
Giuliani remains the most well-liked candidate in either party. He is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans nationwide and unfavorably by 15%. Thompson, not as well known, is the only other candidate with so few Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The actor turned Senator turned actor again is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by 14%.
Among Republicans, Romney and McCain both have lower favorables and higher unfavorables than the frontrunners. For Romney, those GOP numbers are 56% favorable and 28% unfavorable. McCain, among the nation’s best known political figures, is viewed favorably by 55% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%.
While Giuliani is well liked, only 21% of Republicans view him as politically conservative. Twice as many, 42%, believe that Thompson is politically conservative.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.
In some states, independent voters are allowed to participate in Republican primaries. In others, only Republicans can participate. Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%.
McCain’s recent decline in the polls has been tied closely to his support for the unpopular immigration reform bill. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of what happened to the McCain campaign noted that the man once considered a maverick is now the candidate most closely aligned with President Bush on two hot-button issues—the War in Iraq and immigration. That linkage is problematic when just 27% of voters nationwide say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq and only 15% give him favorable reviews on the immigration issue.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Democrat Nomination Process every Monday and on the Republican contest every Tuesday. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly.
GTSteve03
Member
Somehow we're supposed to believe that a poll of 618 people bored enough to answer a phone survey reflects the general population?
SnakeEater
Member
Either that or 97% of "republicans" wipe their butt with the constitution.
SoCalShooter
Member
618 is just not enough of a sample to make this even a believable poll. The media is sabotaging Paul because he speaks the truth, however if polls increase the possiblity of Thompson running that is a good thing.
Wow! Ru Paul and five other candidates combine for less than a percentage of support. Rasmussen's poll of likely voters is very reliable... except they are probably controlled by the trilateral commission, the council on foreign relations, the UN, or some Jewish conspiracy. (Tinfoil hats on please!)
Damn, that was easier than shooting fish in a barrel.
And for those who don't know anything about polling techniques, here's some lit:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
...and a sample size calculator so you can play with numbers...
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
And for those who don't know anything about polling techniques, here's some lit:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
...and a sample size calculator so you can play with numbers...
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
elrod
Member
+1
Marshall
Member
Whether it is or is not, they're usually darn close to right on and within the margin of error.
Good numbers for Fred!
Armed Bear
SoCalShooter
Armed Bear
LMAO
Interesting stuff. If you use the calculator I posted:
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
For a 50-50 split, 618 is a big enough sample to say with 95% certainty that your answer is within 4%, in a population of 25 MILLION. For 80-20, it's closer to within 3%.
This is counterintuitive, but it's just how these things work. 618 is plenty big enough to call the Republican primary within a few percentage points, though an election is never over 'til the fat lady sings.
And yes, the sampling does have to be done correctly, for it to work right.
But the bottom line is, Ron Paul may actually have something in the range ot 0-5% support, and Guiliani might have 20%-30%, but assuming that Rassmussen's techniques are not completely unsound, it would be unreasonable to believe that Paul is running 25% or Guiliani has less than 5%.
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
For a 50-50 split, 618 is a big enough sample to say with 95% certainty that your answer is within 4%, in a population of 25 MILLION. For 80-20, it's closer to within 3%.
This is counterintuitive, but it's just how these things work. 618 is plenty big enough to call the Republican primary within a few percentage points, though an election is never over 'til the fat lady sings.
And yes, the sampling does have to be done correctly, for it to work right.
But the bottom line is, Ron Paul may actually have something in the range ot 0-5% support, and Guiliani might have 20%-30%, but assuming that Rassmussen's techniques are not completely unsound, it would be unreasonable to believe that Paul is running 25% or Guiliani has less than 5%.
Titan6
member
But all the internet polls have Paul winning. Surely they must be true? I have not seen anyone on line who is not a Paul supporter.
Here's the thing...
If you think Ron Paul would be a great choice for President, then help his campaign. There's PLENTY OF TIME. This campaign started WAY TOO EARLY.
Hell, sometimes it seems like Thompson is the only guy who recognizes that, apart from some pundits and maybe Al Gore, not that Gore has a snowflake's chance in a geothermal generating plant.
Note to Paul supporters: if you want to avoid the dustbin of historical political silliness don't waste your time on conspiracy theories or trying to deny reality. Embrace reality, and work from there.
If you think Ron Paul would be a great choice for President, then help his campaign. There's PLENTY OF TIME. This campaign started WAY TOO EARLY.
Hell, sometimes it seems like Thompson is the only guy who recognizes that, apart from some pundits and maybe Al Gore, not that Gore has a snowflake's chance in a geothermal generating plant.
Note to Paul supporters: if you want to avoid the dustbin of historical political silliness don't waste your time on conspiracy theories or trying to deny reality. Embrace reality, and work from there.
SnakeEater
Member
Ahh, nothing more saddening than people chearing the demise of liberty. Laugh it up. Have a party. Pay no attention to those old guys over there weeping, you probably forgot their names anyway. Do you think the Founders would be amused?
pcosmar
member
Has the campaign started too early?
Guliani and Mccain started their campaigns right after 911. Others started after the Republicans losses in 2006. It is starting early.
As far as polls go, I find them interesting but not really important. They have been wrong as often as right, and it is early. Many people have not really looked at the candidates. They know Gulianis name, but not much else.
I don't understand how anyone could vote for him after listening to him.
Time will tell, there is a lot of work to do.
Guliani and Mccain started their campaigns right after 911. Others started after the Republicans losses in 2006. It is starting early.
As far as polls go, I find them interesting but not really important. They have been wrong as often as right, and it is early. Many people have not really looked at the candidates. They know Gulianis name, but not much else.
I don't understand how anyone could vote for him after listening to him.
Time will tell, there is a lot of work to do.
madmike
Member
This is the same thing that happens to serious Libertarian candidates (As opposed to the flakes, who get enough publicity to sink them).
"Why aren't you polling/debating the Libertarian candidate?"
"We only poll/debate candidates who can win."
"But without being polled/debated, they can't generate any visibility or name recognition."
"After they poll/debate and get known, we'll give them visibility."
"So poll/debate them."
"Why? They can't win."
And a bunch of (expletive deleted) on THIS forum do exactly that. "Ron Paul can't win because he's fringe/not a Republican."
"Vote for him and he won't be."
"Why? He can't win."
Personally, I think 90% of Americans, including THRers, should stay home on election day. It'll enable those of us who can think ahead to actually do something to save America and the BOR.
Then the NRA and Republican and Dem parties can claim credit, as usual.
"Why aren't you polling/debating the Libertarian candidate?"
"We only poll/debate candidates who can win."
"But without being polled/debated, they can't generate any visibility or name recognition."
"After they poll/debate and get known, we'll give them visibility."
"So poll/debate them."
"Why? They can't win."
And a bunch of (expletive deleted) on THIS forum do exactly that. "Ron Paul can't win because he's fringe/not a Republican."
"Vote for him and he won't be."
"Why? He can't win."
Personally, I think 90% of Americans, including THRers, should stay home on election day. It'll enable those of us who can think ahead to actually do something to save America and the BOR.
Then the NRA and Republican and Dem parties can claim credit, as usual.
1 old 0311
member
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
madmike, I used to think so.
Then I worked on a Libertarian's campaign. We had plenty of visibility and recognition, and even popularity. We got a lot of press, air time, debate exposure (good exposure), etc. We got as much as anyone.
But when push came to shove, people voted D or R, even in a "non-partisan" race for Mayor. We got 1%.
That's just reality.
That doesn't mean I liked it. That doesn't mean I like it. It doesn't mean I'm cheering for it.
Success, however, tends to come to those who recognize reality, and work from there.
Now there are many reasons someone might consider Paul to be a "fringe candidate." Some may not be valid, but some may be.
This may be a time for the "fringe" to become the "mainstream." Maybe. But that's what it would take for Paul to become President, like it or not.
Then I worked on a Libertarian's campaign. We had plenty of visibility and recognition, and even popularity. We got a lot of press, air time, debate exposure (good exposure), etc. We got as much as anyone.
But when push came to shove, people voted D or R, even in a "non-partisan" race for Mayor. We got 1%.
That's just reality.
That doesn't mean I liked it. That doesn't mean I like it. It doesn't mean I'm cheering for it.
Success, however, tends to come to those who recognize reality, and work from there.
Now there are many reasons someone might consider Paul to be a "fringe candidate." Some may not be valid, but some may be.
This may be a time for the "fringe" to become the "mainstream." Maybe. But that's what it would take for Paul to become President, like it or not.
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