Future prices of .308 / 7.62x51 vs. 30-06?

[Kirk_Ferentz]

So, I know this is the worst time to ask this question, but it is also the time that I need to decide on a bolt gun. In the past I went with 30-06 (my favorite), but now that gun is gone and I always said that I would go with .308 if I had it to do over so that I could get cheap bulk (and more universal) ammo.

But right now, I can't tell which caliber is actually more expensive. On places where people are posting ads, it looks like they are selling at about the same price. And I'm not certain that it is just a bubble in 7.62 prices -- as a (current) military caliber, maybe it will continue to be in the crosshairs of lawmakers (and 30-06 not so much?), keeping prices at their current level or higher?

For all of you speculators (especially the ones who have seen all the ups and downs in 7.62 prices over the years), let's hear your opinions? Will things flatten out and 7.62/.308 will once again be substantially cheaper than 30-06? Or is this rise in 7.62/.308 more permanent?

 

[hwmoore]

ammo prices are nuts and since we have been fighting multiple wars I don't foresee any change in the availability of surplus ammo any time soon. It might be the reason mosin's have become so poplar, cheep ammo, inexpensive firearm

 

[Sock Puppet]

I don't know about prices, but I can find 30-06 almost anywere locally. I know of only 2 places I can actually find 308. Time will tell.

 

[USSR]

I would not bet on lower priced 7.62x51 or even available 7.62x51 ammo given the current political climate. At the current time, what is currently available at least for the next year or two is the HXP .30-06 that is available quite cheaply thru the CMP.

Don

 

[Z-Michigan]

In the current panic people are stocking up on .308, mostly I think out of blind panic, perhaps to a lesser extent for .308 chambered semiautos. I actually sold a whole bunch shortly before this panic, and even then it was stupid easy to sell at 40-45 cents/rd. I guess I could have gotten 80 cents/rd if I had only known the future.

.30-06 is also a "military caliber" and in the unlikely event of a ban on "military calibers" would also be affected... barring a carve-out, which would make just as much sense for .308 as for .30-06.

In my area .308 is at least as readily available as .30-06 for hunting ammo. I've noticed that .270 and 7mm Rem Mag are also nearly universal, which is hilarious given that neither one is needed for 100-300 yard shots on modest sized deer, which is the largest game within 200+ miles.

Anyway, I would be inclined to get a .308 because I think it will be slightly cheaper than .30-06 post-panic (because of higher demand and less metal content in the case), and after the panic subsides will be at least equally available, probably a bit more readily available.

 

[Kirk_Ferentz]

Don't forget about the other good ole always available center fire caliber: 30-30.

Some have said that 30-06 is more universally available if you need a box than .308. That surprises me a bit since in my experience they are pretty neck-and-neck in terms of how likely I am to find a few boxes left on the shelf.

To clarify, I do not expect there to be any change in availability / prices in the next, say, 6 months or a year. I'm sure there will be some change, but who knows what it will be.
But the bigger and much tougher question is what about 5 years from now? Will I be wishing that I had picked up a .308 because I can buy quality surplus 7.62 nato ammo for, say, $.55 per round? That is, will we see a day where 7.62 is still a lot higher than it once was (looks like $.10 to $.20 per round), but still quite a bit less than 30-06 ever will be?

 

[Z-Michigan]

I think that nearly all of the military surplus .308 and .30-06 has already been sold to the civilian market, or in some cases destroyed. I don't think that much if any of the more recently produced military .308 will make its way to the US civilian market, and there isn't that much to start with - most the previously sold surplus had been produced decades ago for infantry using FALs, G3s or M14s, and I'm not aware of any major nations still using .308 in an infantry rifle role. If there's any surplus in the future it is more likely to be the smaller modern calibers - but I don't even foresee that, because the massive stockpiles were built up for the NATO-Warsaw Pact WW3 that never came, and the few nations still making stockpiles are either using them in combat (us) or making calibers we don't use (Chinese 5.8mm).

I would base your buying decision on commercial ammo prices and availability, and reloading options.

 

[Sapper771]

A buddy of mine went to a gunshow over the weekend. He said cases of 308 were priced anywhere from $1500-$1800. The bad part is that people were buying it!

I would invest in a good single stage reloading press and roll your own.

 

[greyling22]

I would think that long term, 30-06 will fade and be eclipsed by 308, and ammo will do the same. 308 will do basically everything 30-06 will in a smaller package and a short action.

At my range, 30-06 brass is getting scarcer and scarcer. Lots of 270, 308, 243, and 7mm-08 laying around.

 

[Kirk_Ferentz]

Hmm, I don't know if I see 30-06 dying greyling ... I think I still see it coming up more than .308 when I search for the rifles I'm considering. But that is interesting about your range.

For me, .308 doesn't do everything that 30-06 does, namely allowing you to hunt the bigger game without having to worry about distance. .308 will work for a moose, but at 250 or 300 yards or more, it doesn't have the power that 30-06 does.

You say that .270 is still going strong ... maybe I should throw that in the mix. I'm guessing that I should be fine out to say 500 yards hunting elk, moose, etc. with .270. From what I have seen, it is basically the same as 30-06 in price, so the same question about 7.62/.308 applies.

 

[Revoliver]

.308 is still plentiful and normally priced where I am. Particular brands/types of .308 ammo are out of stock (like my favorite), but the caliber will always be well supported.

As to the ballistic differences between .308 and .30-06 and which would be better, that's something for someone to decided for themselves for their particular criteria.

 

[W.E.G.]

I put them as equal.

Equally expensive.

If you've got the money, the ammo will be equally available.

The availability of spent brass for 7.62 NATO is currently , and will surely remain, better than 30-06. The US Military still churns through gazillions of rounds of it each year. If you reload, and you consume a lot of brass, its a no-brainer. Get the .308.

For the average guy who reloads, and who shoots less than 1000 rounds of .30 cal per year, he can just stock up on brass for either one, and not worry about what the locusts did to the shelves at WalMart this week.

 

[50 cal]

I guess I need to convert my 1919a4 to 30-06

 

[horsemen61]

I see it to continue and keep going up in price.

 

[ECVMatt]

I went through a similar scare in CA in the 90's. People went nuts and were paying crazy prices. Soon there after people were left with several lifetimes worth of ammo, primers, and powder. Soon after that, people started selling it very cheap. I am not saying that will happen this time, but history does tend to repeat itself.

 

[Kirk_Ferentz]

Yeah it will be very interesting to see what happens. If I were going for a masters in economics (or sociology or political science or any other soft science), I would write my thesis on what is happening right now in the guns & ammo market.

My best guess is that what will end up happening in the long run will be that the legislation will come down the pipe and it won't really affect ammo, and when people realize this, there will be big changes in the market. It will at least stabilize, or there may even be a big drop in prices like there was after the previous scare since people will no longer be hording for a lifetime and they have buyer's remorse (and suppliers may have caught up to previous demand). But if any part of the new policies affect the ammo, who knows what the future of ammo buying will look like. Until we know for sure, there is still the chance that we will all be kicking ourselves 5 years from now for not paying a measly $.75 per 5.56 round. But that is a different discussion.

I'm definitely leaning towards sticking with my favorite 30-06. Now that I have a better idea about the surplus ammo out there, I don't see cost savings being that great (and right now and for the foreseeable future, the cost savings may favor 30-06). Part of it is that I don't plan to be shooting thousands of rounds per year.

As for ballistics, I have always felt that 30-06 is the all-around best widely-available caliber for the hunting that I do. I don't know when I will ever get to go on an elk hunt, but I want a rifle at the ready in case the chance comes. If that happens, I'd much rather have an '06 in hand -- much better for the 325 yard shot. In the meantime, I can load it down for deer and hogs.

 

[Roadkill]

Just me, but for my guns .308 is best for my semi autos (AR10, FAL,M14S) where 30-06 is best for my bolt actions. I hand load heavier bullets in my bolt actions than the semi autos. I hunt with the AR10 and 168g is the heaviest I'll go but with a 1948 FN Mauser I'll shoot 200g. The exception of course is my Garand but I only shoot 150g in it. The simple solution with either caliber is to get a butt load of brass, various weight bullets, powder, primers, and to reload.