General Consensus on John Lott Studies/Use of Firearms in Self Defense

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sherman123

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I wanted to have an open honest discussion on everyone's take on John Lott's studies as well as all others concerning the use of guns for defensive purposes in America. I have heard many people particularly on the gun control side discredit his work and like almost any other issues a lot of discrepancy on actual number of defensive uses of firearms in America yearly. For example, Lott's studies estimate defensive uses in the millions while a Harvard study only estimated in the hundred thousands. What do the great minds of this forum have to say about defensive firearms use statistics? And does anyone know if there's official FBI stats on it?
 
We must constantly emphasize that the Second Amendment was not put into the Constitution by the Founders merely to allow Americans to intimidate and deter street-level criminals and wackos.

Just to reiterate, the Founders added the Second Amendment so that when, after a long train of abuses, a government evinces a methodical design upon our natural rights, we will have the means to protect and recover our rights. That is why the right to keep and bear arms was included in the Bill of Rights.
 
Anti want to discredit Professor Lott, but the CDC includes his numbers in their analysis.
 
I usually use the phrase "estimates vary, but anywhere from.... to.... defensive uses...."

I frequently add, editorially, that "even at the lowest estimate, firearms seem to be used to prevent crime enough times to justify...."

If I'm not feeling scientifically [STRIKE]conservative[/STRIKE] cautious that particular day, I jump into a rant about what yokel said. :evil:

Adding, of course, that the Founders had observed close at hand what happens when the government is not subservient to the people. :mad:

Subsequent historical facts have confirmed their observations:

http://jpfo.org/filegen-a-m/deathgc.htm

Scroll down to the "Genocide Chart," which JPFO calls "The Mother of all Statistics."

Terry, 230RN
 
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Lott's data is as good as there is; his later 'Mary Rosh' adventure tarnished everything else, as well as losing/claiming to lose some supporting data. His concentration, however, is CCW.

The DGU meister is Gary Kleck; Kleck/Gertz published the first good DGU study - see http://www.gunsandcrime.org/dgufreq.html for a discussion.

Despite their desire to dismiss, anti-gun researchers Cook and Ludwig generally confirmed Kleck's numbers - Defensive Gun Uses: New Evidence from a
National Survey


And, all of this is quite old, and really irrelevant. As the antis have been wont to say, 'If it saves just one life ...'.

See also More Statistics, Less Persuasion
 
Thank you kindly to all who gave responded so far and if anyone else has input I'd love to hear.
 
Anybody can use statistics to prove anything they want to prove.
Records of defensive uses of firearms in the U.S., yearly or otherwise, are likely not kept by anybody.
Very much doubt there would be official FBI stats either. Collecting such data is not their job.
The right to keep and bear arms was included in your Bill of Rights because ya'll had no such right under British law before the Rebellion. Militia's by definition included all able-bodied men who were not armed by the government.
 
I could be wrong, but I believe Dr. Lott started out on the anti side at the University Of Chicago, but the actual facts turned him.

Anybody can use statistics to prove anything they want to prove.
Not if the raw data is available to all. I believe it was Dr. Lott who showed the anti's "cheating" by using an ARMA order 3 model to get the anti-gun outcome when an order 1 model was statistically significant for "no effect". It can get very technical very fast, but no legitimate statistician goes to a higher order model after a lower order model has "random" residuals.

Unfortunately there is no shortage of "whore scientists" on political issues like guns, pot and global warming.
 
I could be wrong, but I believe Dr. Lott started out on the anti side at the University Of Chicago, but the actual facts turned him.
Not if the raw data is available to all. I believe it was Dr. Lott who showed the anti's "cheating" by using an ARMA order 3 model to get the anti-gun outcome when an order 1 model was statistically significant for "no effect". It can get very technical very fast, but no legitimate statistician goes to a higher order model after a lower order model has "random" residuals.

Unfortunately there is no shortage of "whore scientists" on political issues like guns, pot and global warming.

You may be refering to University of Florida Professor Gary Kleck, who was conducting a study to prove that gun control could work and the proliferation of guns was a detriment to the safety of society. When he realized the facts actually supported the opposite conclusion, he was intellectually honest and changed his thesis accordingly.

So far as John Lott and his study (or even Gary Kleck's) I tend to go along with 230RN and say 'estimates vary, but there seem to be from XXX number to YYY number of self-defense uses of gun per year." I try to point out the estimates of self defense are higher than murder rates.
However, it often feels a little ..... "off" (find me a better word...) using numbers and stats to try to defend a Constitutionally protected right.
What if the numbers were different? Do our rights depend on what stats and numbers are --- especially when, as some in this thread say, they may be hard to prove solid?
 
However, it often feels a little ..... "off" (find me a better word...) using numbers and stats to try to defend a Constitutionally protected right.

Amen.

And once again, we are playing ball on their field, where they cut the grass, place the infield dirt, establish the outfield fences, and buy off the umpires.
 
I don't know about all the studies that may apply for defensive gun use, and have no opinions on the exact number of annual DFU's, except to hope that it is higher than Everytown claims. I have read both of Lott's books in the past and quoted his statistics whenever I could.

I was unaware, however, until this thread, of the John Lott/Mary Rosh story, nor that he claims to have lost his critical survey data in a hard drive crash. As a long-term academic, now that I know about it, what Lott did as Mary Rosh is completely unethical and there are no excuses. And losing the data? I can only say that I've had several hard drive crashes over the years and I still have manuscript drafts and digital info stretching clear back into the 80's. Those of us who started with IBM PC's and floppy disks learned the value of multiple backup's in the early 80's. Why Mr. Lott wouldn't have backups on a pivotal piece of his life's work is hard to fathom.

I will never believe anything developed from John Lott again and I'd advise other 2nd amendment advocates to never use his "data" in the future to support our positions. He has demonstrated a clear lack of integrity and truthfulness and that genie can't be put back into the bottle.
 
I will never believe anything developed from John Lott again and I'd advise other 2nd amendment advocates to never use his "data" in the future to support our positions. He has demonstrated a clear lack of integrity and truthfulness and that genie can't be put back into the bottle.

It's my opinion that such a reaction is a baby/bathwater situation. That said, Dr Lott certainly made a lot of trouble for himself with those.

But, unlike most anti-gun researchers, he makes his data available for other researchers to check - and the rechecks I have seen validate his conclusions.
 
Unfortunately, data can be faked. Convincingly if you know enough about statistical normal distribution. Unfortunately I have lost trust in Mr Lott. Frankly, as "Mary Rosh", I am surprised he wasnt dismissed both from his institution and from his profession. Writing under an alias that "Lott was the best professor I had", which he admits doing, is a stunningly unprofessional action.
 
John Lott is an unfortunate example of a supporter of the RKBA being hoist on his own petard. Please fellow THR members do not engage in behavior that creates a self-inflicted wound to the credibility of supporters of the RKBA. What a shame Lott did this.
 
I guess I never paid much attention to Lott or Kleck and I have read a bit of each but like some have said you can manipulate number to meet your needs and I feel both have to some degree to fit their needs.

I guess for me it does not matter what either say because in my mind the Second Amendment is not up for debate and does not need to be justified because it was over 200 plus years ago and has not changed.

Then when I look at what just happen in France it just proves to me that gun control, for the second time, did not work very well for them and it will not work any better here. Then Australia and England have been having a wave of gun crime and Australia is now toying with an ammo ban and a second gun buyback (confiscation) like they did in 96.

There overall violent crime rate did not go down in either country and yes gun crime went down just not the overall violent crime rate and whether committed with a gun, knife or baseball bat violent crime is still violent crime.

Just my thoughts

Australia Sees Spike in Gun Crime Despite Outright Ban
http://freebeacon.com/issues/australia-sees-spike-in-gun-crime-despite-outright-ban/

Australia’s hidden gun problem: the worst suburbs for gun crime
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/11/10/australias-hidden-gun-problem-worst-suburbs-gun-crime/
 
IMHO, some of the best research is by Kleck. Try his book 'Point Blank' for instance. Fair warning - his stuff is academically dry, but very well supported. He doesn't just say 'a survey found X' - he spends a chapter discussing (with footnotes!) all the ways the survey might over or underestimate X.

Lott, again IMHO, isn't wrong, but his data (I'm talking about 'More Guns Less Crime' here) has been massaged quite a bit, and the effects he's looking at are fairly small. There's lots of room for things to go off the rail when you massage the data that much (BTW, by 'massage' I don't mean fabricate; I mean he is of necessity correcting for a lot of other confounding factors).

I think Lott's work does solidly establish that shall issue CCW doesn't have any downsides - whether it actually reduces crime overall is harder to say (and of course, if it doesn't negatively affect society at large, and obviously can be a net benefit for at least some people, it should be allowed).

Disclaimer: have a Stats degree, but never worked with the kinds of analysis Lott does. I might be all wet.
 
The Harvard article probably uses the National Crime Victimization Survey NCVS. Cook and Ludwig, who have published studies showing 108 thousand DGU from the NCVS and 4.7 million DGU from the NSPOF (National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms), pointed out that everyone in the NSPOF survey sample were asked if they had used a gun defensively, but very few of the NCVS survey sample are ever asked a DGU question.

Personally I think Lott has been swiftboated because a lot of people did not like his conclusions. Or that his facts contradict a precious political Tru[sup]th[/sup].

Awhile back at Amazon I commented on a review of Lott's book on court selections where the critic mostly talked about Lott's gun research using hackneyed talking points. (I use a pseudonym at Amazon because I think the focus should be on the issue not on the person.) Rather than answer my arguments, the critic snarked "You're right, Mary, er, John, ..." and spendt most of the discussion badgering me for my true ID, rather than debating the issues, and went on his personal blog to accuse me of being John Lott. I have also been accused of being other people by another person who preferred to attack me personally rather than answer my criticism rationally. Which is why a lot of people, not just John Lott, have used pseudonyms to argue on the internet (especially at Amazon).

Lott's two self-defense surveys 1996 and 2002 are actually middle-of-the-road in their conclusions. As Kleck & Gertz pointed out about their 1994 NSDS National Self-Defense Survey that got 2.4 million Defensive Gun Uses (DGU) per year, at that time there were a dozen national and three state surveys that got 764 thousand to 3.6 million DGU per year. Lott's surveys confirmed about 2 million DGU per year with the vast majority non-shooting.

Peter Hart research associates did a 1981 survey on guns that got DGU figures very similar to Lott's. By the time Gary Kleck asked Peter Hart about the survey for his 1988 Social Problems article, Hart no longer had the survey data. That was one of the reasons Kleck & Gertz later did their NSDS study. Hart's reputation has not been trashed for losing track of a survey data set after the results were published.

Lott's credibility is attacked because he lost the 1996 DGU survey data. A half-a-dozen academics did confirm that Lott had a massive data loss involving work coauthored with them in the summer of 1997 and he had to recover their shared data from their backups. Apparently Lott considered an external harddrive to be a permanant backup and since that 1997 mishap has adopted a multiple backup policy. Lost data was the one survey for the 2 million DGU figure and an draft article where the co-author did not have backups either. Not lost was the larger data set of the Right-To-Carry concealed weapons econometric regression (co-author David Mustard had his own copies which he supplied to Lott), the core of "More Guns, Less Crime" and the data set that Lott has shared with anyone who wants to download it (and it is massive).
 
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