Gun Bubble? Will the rabid demand for firearms level off?

[Black Butte]

... customers clamoring for guns like they're the last wonka bars.

That's hilarious! I love Gene Wilder in that movie.

I guess if we pick up new gun owners, then it's a good thing in terms of preserving our rights. If, however, the sales are mostly due to current gun owners expanding the size of their collections, then we're simply driving up prices.

 

[Balrog]

Colt ARs, the "gold standard" as some call it, are only going for around $900.

Where are you buying Colt AR's for $900???

 

[Davek1977]

http://www.onlinegundeals.com/ItemDetails/796674839/COLT_LEO_AR_15_NEW_AR652.htm

While not "$900" even, heres one for $975 for sale as we speak

 

[Onward Allusion]

Ernie Mccracken
Gun Bubble? Will the rabid demand for firearms level off?
I don't know what it says about our country's future when during a time of record high unemployment, thousands of jobs leaving the country every day, and possibly the worst economic outlook in history - the gun shops are absolutely packed with customers clamoring for guns like they're the last wonka bars. Another thread, I suppose.

Over the holidays, I planned to expand my collection with 3-4 new purchases. As you can probably guess by my tone, I completely struck out and have given up on the idea for the time being. I'd rather just wait this craziness out.

I went to Cabela's twice, but left without getting near the counter. 2-3 people deep for the entire length of their display cases. The local places were totally cleaned out except for bread and butter stuff at full MSRP. I was told people started lining up at 6AM the day after Christmas for a few items that were discounted 5%. The most popular shop completely stopped doing FFL transfers and choice #2 upped their FFL fee to $60.

Few, if any deals at gun shows anymore. On my local swap forum, a lot of used stuff is now priced at full MSRP. In what other industry does that happen? I posted a WTB ad and someone wanted MSRP +$15 for a gun with 300 rounds through it. He said sales tax would be about $30, so was offering to "split it." How generous .

Anyone else sitting out right now? When do you think supply will catch up with demand?

No gun bubble currently exists. The big box stores only carry the most popular guns. If anything, the market is saturated. Just take a look at prices for the evil black rifles (AR/AK). Unconverted Saigas are back to $300-$350. Run-of-the-mill WASR can be had for around $400-$450. A plinker AR can be put together for around $550 and bought whole for just a little over $600. NIB Glocks are going for $500 again. Ammo is back to pre 2009 scare rates.

The current administration is so busy trying to ensure it retains power that the fear is gone, at least for now. Also, with the economy still crawling out of the dumpster, there is a plethora of barely used guns in the market. There is no bubble, only inefficient big boxes and LGS that can't compete with online sales.

 

[Strykervet]

I don't know what it says about our country's future when during a time of record high unemployment, thousands of jobs leaving the country every day, and possibly the worst economic outlook in history - the gun shops are absolutely packed with customers clamoring for guns like they're the last wonka bars. Another thread, I suppose.

Over the holidays, I planned to expand my collection with 3-4 new purchases. As you can probably guess by my tone, I completely struck out and have given up on the idea for the time being. I'd rather just wait this craziness out.

I went to Cabela's twice, but left without getting near the counter. 2-3 people deep for the entire length of their display cases. The local places were totally cleaned out except for bread and butter stuff at full MSRP. I was told people started lining up at 6AM the day after Christmas for a few items that were discounted 5%. The most popular shop completely stopped doing FFL transfers and choice #2 upped their FFL fee to $60.

Few, if any deals at gun shows anymore. On my local swap forum, a lot of used stuff is now priced at full MSRP. In what other industry does that happen? I posted a WTB ad and someone wanted MSRP +$15 for a gun with 300 rounds through it. He said sales tax would be about $30, so was offering to "split it." How generous .

Anyone else sitting out right now? When do you think supply will catch up with demand?

Dude, no joke! I haven't been to a shop in two months that wasn't PACKED! The shopkeepers were constantly talking about it. Literally packed, I mean you had to maneuver through crowds like at a concert. Amazing.

I'm a numbers guy, a mathematician. So I'm constantly looking at the world through an analytical lens (my specialty, analysis). I try real hard to refrain from going math geek on here, I understand few people can keep up with it and it is hard to display formulas on here anyway, but I'd like to show you guys something simple.

In Nov. they reported 1.5million federal checks. Considering each check is for a purchase on average of $600 (I pulled this number from the air based on an educated guess) and they all go through, then that accounts for $900,000,000 in sales --just shy of $1billion! Take into account Dec. and you are close to $2billion. $2billion! Considering that each sale has at least a 10% (usually more) profit margin when used and new items are considered, then that is still $200,000,000 dollars! All in local economies! Divided between states equally, you get $4,000,000 in profits alone nationwide, almost all in the local economies and all in one and half months. This isn't bad really. And this doesn't consider the ftf sales either --in Nov. I am responsible for one background check, but THREE purchases.

Americans don't have a lot of cash, so that they value a $600 arm more than a say a radio or new tires, or a new suit for that job --they prioritize, and in this day and age the priority is survival in a very chaotic and upredictable time. We got raped over the years and and kept getting the bad end of the deal. Time and again. But it will only last so long before the people get upset. The political climate, the way our representatives ignore us, it all adds up. I don't advocate an overthrow by any means, but certainly advocate a "We the People" response to let them know whe won't be overrun and that our democracy will NOT be perverted into a political playground for the rich. That we ARE the democracy and that THEY work for us, not lord over us.

 

[huntsman]

I don't know what it says about our country's future when during a time of record high unemployment, thousands of jobs leaving the country every day, and possibly the worst economic outlook in history - the gun shops are absolutely packed with customers clamoring for guns like they're the last wonka bars. Another thread, I suppose.

It's about time Americans woke up and take responsibility for their safety and liberty and buying guns is a better purchase than stupid electronic devices.

I went to Cabela's twice, but left without getting near the counter. 2-3 people deep for the entire length of their display cases.

I was at Cabela's in Wheeling on Monday and it was packed, used gun rack was hard to get to and forget about browsing new guns, they were taking numbers just to get served.

 

[JohnBT]

"I understand few people can keep up with it"

You could be wrong. Some of us were physics majors.

 

[bushmaster1313]

There used to be a time that you could get 5% or 7% on money in the bank or in savings bonds.

With interest rates at the banks hitting record lows, if you have cash why not put it into guns?

 

[Onward Allusion]

JohnBT

"I understand few people can keep up with it"

You could be wrong. Some of us were physics majors.

RKBA covers people from all walks of life here - minimum wage earners to those in corner offices in glass towers and everyone in between (and all ethnicity).

 

[Ridgerunner665]

I don't understand the problem here (not finding the gun you want)...

I don't go to the gun shop to buy what they have in stock, at least not usually...I did do that when I bought my Glock.

The process generally goes like this...I call him, tell him what I want, he finds it, gets it in, I buy it. (and he knows very well what I'll tell him if he quotes me MSRP price)

Besides that Glock...the last gun I walked in a gun store and bought off the shelf was a 30-30 from Brendles (that was back when you could buy guns at Montgomery Wards and Sears)

 

[arcticap]

Dude, no joke! I haven't been to a shop in two months that wasn't PACKED! The shopkeepers were constantly talking about it. Literally packed, I mean you had to maneuver through crowds like at a concert. Amazing.

If an area's gun shops are constantly packed then after a while they will need to expand. Or other gun shops will open up that can handle their over flow.
Some huge shops are a magnet for crowds. But they usually have a really huge selection of guns, so no gun shortages there. But then it becomes a matter of prices. Prices are why many folks won't buy at gun shows very often unless they find a really sweet deal.
I've found that some of the newer small gun shops specialize in certain types of guns and services. One is more involved in black rifles while the other is more into military surplus guns. Both seem to be more involved in Class III than most average shops too. They're definitely not as crowded or busy.
Another smaller but well established shop offers the most expert gunsmithing services. So many gun shops develop their own niches aside from just retail sales or else they may not stay in business for long.

 

[Ignition Override]

Patriotme:

That was a good reminder about some 'uncivil' disturbances, not just around the world, but also in some US cities.
As for increased business in US gun shops, is much of the stronger demand mostly with people who live in cities, and who have little or no exposure to legal ownership?

Somebody started a topic recently (on THR?), where several of the guy's anti-gun coworkers suddenly were curious about, or interested in handguns for self-defense.
If this concept has quickly grown around the US, then maybe those images on tv from the Middle East, riots in several English cities at the same time, and the Occupy WS in numerous cities has infiltrated through peoples' subconscious for a while and is seen as global insecurity?

 

[crazyjennyblack]

The gun buying will slow down when the people overall feel safe again. Between the politicians, the economy, and the real or perceived increase in crime of all sorts, it is hard for people to feel safe. Talking to people I know, both pro-gun and anti-gun, the general feeling is that nobody really feels safe, and the general expectations regarding the future are grim.

 

[Dysfunctional Individual]

The real craze was back in 2008, but this recent revival is just an indication that Obummer is very likely to get reelected, possibly in a landslide. Recently there have been a number of positive economic signs, like unemployment ticking down and factory orders picking up, so the chances of a regime change in Washington are slimming. Ironically, an anti-gun Democratic president has been a gift from heaven for gun sellers.

 

[Pilot]

I just think guns are becoming more mainstream again after the psycho babble of the 60's and 70's culminated in the 68 GCA, and continued into the AWB of the 90's. We have seen gun rights become stronger in many ways, and more average people engage in the shooting sports, and purchasing guns for self defense. The media, and liberals are losing the argument on self protection, and self preservation.

Maybe the current level of legal gun purchasing is the new norm.

 

[catnphx]

Patriotme said: I consider the current group of people rushing out to buy guns a good thing. They are now invested in keeping pro gun policians in office, are supporting the gun/ammo industry and most of all....they are taking responsibility for their own safety instead of relying on the gov. It shows that the denutting of American males may be changing.

Very true. Also, let's not forget the "denutting of American" females too.

I've had 2 LGS open up in my area the past 2 months ... they are going up like convenience stores now; the thought of a bubble is interesting given this reality. However, if Obama is re-elected, I'm very concerned that he'll do what most 2nd term presidents do ... start pushing their own personal agendas without danger of voter repercussion. A politican that's not concerned about the voter is a dangerous person.

 

[arcticap]

4) I consider the current group of people rushing out to buy guns a good thing. They are now invested in keeping pro gun policians in office, are supporting the gun/ammo industry and most of all....they are taking responsibility for their own safety instead of relying on the gov. It shows that the denutting of American males may be changing.
I know several people that bought guns for self defense this year and I'm glad to see people at least thinking about standing up for their own safety instead of believing that the gov. is the solution to everything

.

Very true. Also, let's not forget the "denutting of American" females too.

I've had 2 LGS open up in my area the past 2 months ... they are going up like convenience stores now; the thought of a bubble is interesting given this reality. However, if Obama is re-elected, I'm very concerned that he'll do what most 2nd term presidents do ... start pushing their own personal agendas without danger of voter repercussion. A politican that's not concerned about the voter is a dangerous person.

I think that some gun owners are an independent lot, many represent a cross section of the general population and others will vote the same way that they tended to before they owned a gun.
Most gun owners don't join the NRA and don't believe that the 2nd Amendment is in any jeopardy.
Consider the recent Heller ruling by Supreme Court.
Part of America's stability is due to the Constitution and the fragmentation of power between different branches of gov't and all of the 50 states. I can't imagine a President being able to change it all by himself.

 

[Fishslayer]

As well, new shooters have been bitten by the bug and there is a whole new demand out there

^^^This would be my guess. Saw it with the Harley craze when the Evos came out & the yuppies were all wanting to cash in on the "Bad Boy" image and play biker. A lot of us were lickin' our chops at the prospect of thousands of low milage Harleys hittin' the market after they got tired of their toys.

Never happened. While they're still fun to look at with the Gucci boots & huge embroidered "outlaw" patches, the RUBs (Rich Urban Bikers) found they love to ride with a Harley in the back of the motorhome and never sold the bikes.

 

[22-rimfire]

I believe the overall demand for firearms has increased. December purchases were not because of Obama.

I was in a local gun shop and the FedEx truck was outside making a delivery. Shortly after, two Ruger LCR-22's were placed in the glass case. Both were sold in less than 30 minutes. There were probably 4-5 customers in the store.

I think certain guns are selling like hotcakes. I think there are more women buyers and more first time buyers. The ranges are busy when the weather is nice.

Sales will slack off relative to December 2011 sales. There are a lot of Christmas sales between Thanksgiving and Christmas. But overall demand is likely to stay brisk.

 

[bushmaster1313]

This is about economics not politics.

The Administration wants to boost the economy by boosting consumer spending.
This is why interest rates are near zero.

One of the purchases that people put off when money is tight is firearms, which after the first one or two are a luxury item.

 

[Fishslayer]

I think certain guns are selling like hotcakes. I think there are more women buyers and more first time buyers. The ranges are busy when the weather is nice.

The indoor range I go to has been packed since after Christmas. I guess a lot are trying out new presents, but it's been busy at hours when it's usually slow, and on weekdays!

 

[Ignition Override]

In case our Washington "White Hose" team is re-elected in November (many people do Not vote), is it likely that costs for handgun classes will be sharply increased, to try to take advantage of the anticipated increase in demand for concealed carry permits etc?

Also, my main hang-up with the desire for a very first handgun (.22: for plinking) is the impression that very few types or styles of handguns are designed for " Lefties ".

A PPK or Bersa style in .380 or 9mm would be handy and have good potential to be legally concealed (as a long-term goal), but I've not seen safety levers designed for Lefties.

 

[Wanderling]

This is purely anecdotal, but according to at least one local CPL class teacher, there has been a steady increase in both the number of first time gun buyers and CPL applicants in the last 4-5 years, getting stronger with each year. He said this to the large part was fueled by MI becoming a "shall issue" state some 10 years ago, which took a few years to start showing, due to some mental inertia on part of population. May be the same is happening in OP's area. Many people I know who became first time gun owners didn't do it to fight off hordes of unemployed zombies.

 

[gp911]

In my recent experience several friends l never heard talk about guns have actually acquired their concealed carry licenses, which in Ohio means they took a class & jumped through some hoops. When asked about it some said it was to be protected & some said it was just a good idea to have it in general, like they wanted to at least check that box. They may never actually get into the habit of carrying, but even so it still means they have gotten over their knee-jerk gun aversion and realized firearms are not inherently evil.

Sounds like good news to me.

 

[One_Jackal]

I would say law enforcement is selective. Most police departments will put more effort into enforcing laws they receive funding to enforce. If our local law enforcement agency's put half the effort into protecting property as they do looking for drunk drivers and drugs there would be very little property crime in the area.

I eat at a Waffle House that is frequented by policemen in the area. It's quite common to hear the term "selective enforcement" on the radio. Selective enforcement is code for speed trap.