When will the hyper gun demand bubble burst?
- Thread starter Kynoch
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Good lord, is there something funky in the water down there?
Of course, some firearms are worth millions. So are some cars and some watches AND some tea pots AND some ROCKS. What's the point?
I had assumed people would realize my reference to "toy" as a big-boy toy, not something your 6 year old would play with, but there's always one in the crowd, as they say...
WinThePennant
Member
As the world becomes increasingly scary, the demand for guns will continue to rise and push prices higher.
Nico Testosteros
Member
Increasingly scary? The Cold War is mostly over, the violent crime rate here in the States is declining, polio and other diseases have largely been licked. Climate change is pretty scary, I'll grant you, but the world is no more violent than it's ever been.
Kynoch
member
Quite true.
Ignition Override
Member
X-Rap: "Roger" that.
Combining last summer's videos from a few of the more rowdy "professional leftist" "Occupy (city x)" with those from several riots at the same time in English cities about a year ago with many in other cities in Europe due to drastic cuts in govt. spending, this also grabs peoples' attention.
Possible images from outside both the Dem., Rep. conventions this summer where "professional international anarchists" are likely to be present, and future scenes from California after more govt. cutbacks take place, will be interesting.
Many people claim that coworkers who are known to be anti-gun have recently made inquiries about shooting classes or carry permits.
Combining last summer's videos from a few of the more rowdy "professional leftist" "Occupy (city x)" with those from several riots at the same time in English cities about a year ago with many in other cities in Europe due to drastic cuts in govt. spending, this also grabs peoples' attention.
Possible images from outside both the Dem., Rep. conventions this summer where "professional international anarchists" are likely to be present, and future scenes from California after more govt. cutbacks take place, will be interesting.
Many people claim that coworkers who are known to be anti-gun have recently made inquiries about shooting classes or carry permits.
Kynoch
member
"More gov't cutbacks" won't be limited to California...
leadcounsel
member
People who buy guns come in a few flavors, but many "hoard" them, meaning they oveall add to their collection and don't subtract.
In that respect, guns are not like other 'durable' goods. Most people only have 1 couch, 1 refrigerator, 1 stove, 1 set of washer and dryer, etc. Most folks don't buy extra durables for fun, gifts, pleasure, to collect, etc. But people add guns to their collection.
With population increasing significantly, and the predictable 'civil unrest' that we are almost certainly to see in the near future (won't go into my theories), gun sales are going to continue to stay steady or go up, not down...
That means that prices will not be going down across the board...
In that respect, guns are not like other 'durable' goods. Most people only have 1 couch, 1 refrigerator, 1 stove, 1 set of washer and dryer, etc. Most folks don't buy extra durables for fun, gifts, pleasure, to collect, etc. But people add guns to their collection.
With population increasing significantly, and the predictable 'civil unrest' that we are almost certainly to see in the near future (won't go into my theories), gun sales are going to continue to stay steady or go up, not down...
That means that prices will not be going down across the board...
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Reloadron
Contributing Member
Don't hold your breath. I wondered about that 25 years ago. Twenty years ago we were buying Norinco MAK 90 rifles for $129 stamped and $139 milled receiver.
Then came the great crime bill later the assault weapons laws. We couldn't buy and sell guns fast enough! There were even rumors at one point of high ammunition taxes being imposed. This even led to a great primer shortage.
People were stock piling tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition as well as guns and also reloading components.
Someone just had a thread where they bought a MAK 90 (milled receiver) for $900. Go figure.
What I see is DejaVue all over again.
Guns are a solid well paying investment as is ammunition. Ammunition when stored correctly has a long, long shelf life. Today I can drive to Gander Mountain and buy 1,000 rounds of Winchester brass case .223 for $499, so what will that cost next month or next year or in 5 years?
Ron
Canfield
Member
I don't think you understand what a "bubble" is. It doesn't simply refer to prices being high. It refers to prices being driven up based on expectations of the future, typically expectations of higher future prices. If we could somehow know that the current expectations that were driving prices up now were wrong and prices would fall, say, after the election, prices would adjust now.
Certaindeaf
member
The Tulip Craze of 1637 was certainly a bubble.. check it out.
Almost reminds one of the dot com and housing shenanigans.
Almost reminds one of the dot com and housing shenanigans.
ConstitutionCowboy
member
When will the hyper gun demand bubble burst?
I don't have time to read the whole thread, so if it's been said already, fine. The "demand bubble" will "burst" when there is no threat of government confiscations, regulation, and/or limitations on the RKBA; or threats of, or moves toward, tyranny, despotism, dictatorship, and/or subjugation of our sovereignty to any power other than our own Constitution.
Woody
I don't have time to read the whole thread, so if it's been said already, fine. The "demand bubble" will "burst" when there is no threat of government confiscations, regulation, and/or limitations on the RKBA; or threats of, or moves toward, tyranny, despotism, dictatorship, and/or subjugation of our sovereignty to any power other than our own Constitution.
Woody
Kynoch
member
You have absolutely no idea if California will be "ground zero" or not.
I have enough guns/ammo/supplies to make the 10 day wait an absolute non-issue. Nice try though.
You suggest that guns are more expensive in California? Prove it...
And the choice are "horrible?" That's just pure bunkum. California-envy is nothing new and it does get tiresome after awhile...
Kynoch
member
There is still saturation...
Not too long ago when the USA's population wasn't all that much smaller; back when it was far easier to find a place to shoot; back when there were far fewer gun regulations, people bought far fewer guns. Figure that one out. The "hoarding" variable is moot.
Kynoch
member
And quite possibly the coming gun market...The Tulip Craze of 1637 was certainly a bubble.. check it out.
Almost reminds one of the dot com and housing shenanigans.
DefiantDad
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I think there are basically two general groups of people on this issue (i.e., two opinions).
The first set, in my opinion, are the people who feel the "bubble" is fueled because of "fear of the future" (I belong to this set), and the other group of people do not feel that there is any qualitatively special "problem(s)" looming in the coming times.
Based on where you are on these two standpoints, I think the analysis of the "bubble" will differ greatly.
In my opinion, the dotcom and tulip bubbles (and indeed the housing bubble) cannot really compare to this firearms activity, because those were primarily driven by GREED.
The firearms activity is primarily driven by FEAR (i.e., insecurity).
The sense of survival is a much stronger emotion/rationale than simply wanting to be rich.
This is not a debate on whether SHTF sentiments are valid, or ridiculous. Realistically, I think at this VERY late stage of the game, nobody is really going to be convinced to take a different opinion; we are all entitled to our opinions but that's basically the bottom line premise on what is the X-Factor fueling the so-called "bubble".
The first set, in my opinion, are the people who feel the "bubble" is fueled because of "fear of the future" (I belong to this set), and the other group of people do not feel that there is any qualitatively special "problem(s)" looming in the coming times.
Based on where you are on these two standpoints, I think the analysis of the "bubble" will differ greatly.
In my opinion, the dotcom and tulip bubbles (and indeed the housing bubble) cannot really compare to this firearms activity, because those were primarily driven by GREED.
The firearms activity is primarily driven by FEAR (i.e., insecurity).
The sense of survival is a much stronger emotion/rationale than simply wanting to be rich.
This is not a debate on whether SHTF sentiments are valid, or ridiculous. Realistically, I think at this VERY late stage of the game, nobody is really going to be convinced to take a different opinion; we are all entitled to our opinions but that's basically the bottom line premise on what is the X-Factor fueling the so-called "bubble".
WinThePennant
Member
Why are we talking bubbles? It's obvious that guns are NOT in a bubble. A bubble is pretty defined by irrational demand based on severely flawed economic reasoning that the item being purchased will be sold for a much higher price later.
When we start hearing about people "flipping" guns, then we'll know we're in a bubble. Right now, I believe that most guns are UNDERVALUED relative to their life-saving qualities and demand for the product. You can buy a S&W Shield for less than $400 NIB. In other words, one of the finest products in its class selling for a reasonable price relative to its peers despite sky-high demand. Are people buying Shields and reselling them for three times the purchase price? No, they are not. NO BUBBLE.
When we start hearing about people "flipping" guns, then we'll know we're in a bubble. Right now, I believe that most guns are UNDERVALUED relative to their life-saving qualities and demand for the product. You can buy a S&W Shield for less than $400 NIB. In other words, one of the finest products in its class selling for a reasonable price relative to its peers despite sky-high demand. Are people buying Shields and reselling them for three times the purchase price? No, they are not. NO BUBBLE.
DefiantDad
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I think that was the whole thesis for this thread, that the gun buying is "...defined by irrational demand based on severely flawed economic reasoning..."
My standpoint (and it does not appear I am alone) is that it is not irrational.
Then again, to be fair, people in a bubble never feel they are irrational.
History will show who ended up being correct. (Probably we will know within 24 months).
My standpoint (and it does not appear I am alone) is that it is not irrational.
Then again, to be fair, people in a bubble never feel they are irrational.
History will show who ended up being correct. (Probably we will know within 24 months).
Kynoch
member
"Major" cities? Hmmm... Are you suggesting that cities in other states have not also declared bankruptcy?
Bullet buttons? Is that the best you can do? Really? No mention of magazines?
You suggest "I live in the heart of the Rockies and don't like the beach or Disney Land so envy is the furthest from my mind" yet that's clearly not true given your shots at California.
California envy is nothing new...
FWIW, California has the tallest mountains in the lower 48...
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leadcounsel
member
Off topic but requires rebuttal. California, under the current leadership and laws, is about the worst place to live in the United States. While I love the skiing and wine and sunshine, I would REFUSE to live in such an oppressive state that is so incredibly backward and screwed up on nearly every important issue, to include guns and the 2A... on the 2A, the state Constitution on the matter sucks. And many companies won't ship gun stuff to CA. No hi-cap mags or guns that accept them. I was there and nearly fell over in a gun store when I saw the prices and learned about the waiting period!!!
The ONLY thing CA has going for it is the climate/mountians/water/wine, etc. And that means it's the ONLY reasons it would be better places like NJ, MA, MD, and IL... which isn't saying much...
On topic, there is no gun bubble... there are brief panics and spikes in prices when PMs go up (copper, brass)... but they quickly subside. MOST gun prices steadily rise, but remain affordable.
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DefiantDad
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The thing about this "bubble" is, if prices really did come down, I for one will definitely buy three or four more guns. And I can think of a few friends who would probably buy a couple of guns just out of their reach at this time. So, not sure how long such a "price correction" would last.
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