Gun Manufacturers See Profits & Stock Prices Dropping Badly

[Hokie_PhD]

A friend just bought a Daniel Defense V7. I'm not sure what he paid for it but he said there were no deals to be had from that company. He didn't care and he likes it a lot. I shot it but I'm not an AR guy so the whole experience was lost on me.

Several months ago I looked at a Daniel Defense AR at. Local LGS.
Overall the fit and finish was really nice, but I couldn’t see the extra value in it that justified the premium in price. Granted it was a beautiful AR, I just didn’t see anything that made me want to pay extr for it. Granted I didn’t shoot it, and maybe that would show more value, but I just don’t think so.

Anyway, anyone that can afford one and likes it can know they’re buying a nice gun.

 

[jrdolall]

Ultimately I buy based on what I want and not on what they might eventually be worth. I think polymer pistols and ARs are saturated and I don't even look at them unless the price is WAY low.
There are always new people coming into the market looking to buy their first AR or Glock and that will continue to drive the market for a while. ARs are cool, Glocks are in video games and considered "gangsta". Most new buyers aren't even aware of Sig and that $800 price point.
I have no doubt that all things firearm related, other than niche items, will continue to drop for the next couple of years. Look at ammo prices in the past 18 months. Cheap 9mm can be had for $.14 delivered to your door and 22 LR is back under $.04 per round. I remember 2-3 years ago everyone was screaming that manufacturers should increase production capacity to catch up with demand for 22 lr. 3 years ago every round of 22 lr that made it to a big box store was sold within a few minutes.

 

[Bfh_auto]

We all contribute to this. How many guns have you bought since Trump got in office? Myself, none, but my wife bought one. Under Obama, probably 15 or so over the 8 years. So, on average, my household bought 2 guns a year under Obama and 1 a year under Trump. It is amazing that their stock is only down 8%.

I bought 4 since Trump. About a dozen were during Obama. I still don't have an AR or variant. My buys are all sales or used. I can wait for what I want.

 

[Captcurt]

The glut that has taken place since the election is a boon for buyers and cuts into the bottom line for dealers who stocked up for the Clinton years. I bought several AR's and just now got rid of the last one and was happy to break even. I've seen Rem 700 ADL's with scopes for $366, Savage 111's with a Nikon for $449 plus a $100 rebate, T/C Ventures with a $75 rebate and just snagged a M&P Shield for $250. If you want a new gun, now is the time to buy.

 

[BSA1]

All of this shows is how fickle the gun market is and how sensitive it is to politics.

Designing, production and marketing new guns has tremendous risks. I thought a six round J-Frame snubby revolver in 32 Magnum would be a hit for conceal carry due to having a additional round and less recoil.

With a pro-gun President the political sense of urgency is gone.

However consider how quickly this can change. A shooting war requiring a large commitment of ground troops with North Korea next year seems unavoidable. Will the fear after another nuclear test spark war or a attack in retaliation by North Korea result in big consumer demand on .223/5.56, 9mm and/or other small arms cartridges? This will certainly have impact on importation of PMC ammunition along with demand on domestic production for the military herein the States. Will importation of Wolf ammunition from Taiwan be affected if China enters into the war?

Invasion by North Korea is impossible but what about the breakdown in government functions and society if a major city is nuke by North Korea? The resulting breakdown in society in those areas is going to create shockwaves throughout the country. How will we deal with the evacuations of refuges and the criminal elements that accompany them?

Of course this is just a big "What If" question. However it should make folks realize that waiting for prices to go lower or for the buyers market continuing for the long term should not be taken for granted.

 

[Ranald]

Well, I'm in for a .44 spec revolver.. Ruger single action in the .357 frame... they made a small run of the "flattops" a few years ago.. but Im not interested in a "specialty" or collectable revolver, I want a simple vaquero-style made to be carried in a western-type holster and gunbelt. Yeah Yeah, I know... "Next year in Jerusalem"...

 

[Riomouse911]

The price increases and ammo shortages after Sandy Hook up to the elections were another financial bubble just waiting to burst. Today it's the phony currency "Bitcoin" that has some folks gaga...

Like Tech stocks, real estate, or the price of oil, any frenzy-driven "hot" market item will almost always flop hard and leave late buyers holding overpriced items and lots of company employees getting pink slips...

 

[JohnBiltz]

All of this shows is how fickle the gun market is and how sensitive it is to politics.

Designing, production and marketing new guns has tremendous risks. I thought a six round J-Frame snubby revolver in 32 Magnum would be a hit for conceal carry due to having a additional round and less recoil.

With a pro-gun President the political sense of urgency is gone.

However consider how quickly this can change. A shooting war requiring a large commitment of ground troops with North Korea next year seems unavoidable. Will the fear after another nuclear test spark war or a attack in retaliation by North Korea result in big consumer demand on .223/5.56, 9mm and/or other small arms cartridges? This will certainly have impact on importation of PMC ammunition along with demand on domestic production for the military herein the States. Will importation of Wolf ammunition from Taiwan be affected if China enters into the war?

Invasion by North Korea is impossible but what about the breakdown in government functions and society if a major city is nuke by North Korea? The resulting breakdown in society in those areas is going to create shockwaves throughout the country. How will we deal with the evacuations of refuges and the criminal elements that accompany them?

Of course this is just a big "What If" question. However it should make folks realize that waiting for prices to go lower or for the buyers market continuing for the long term should not be taken for granted.

There is not going to be a war with NK. They can't afford to lose or win a war. Ever encounter an aggressive panhandler? That is NK on a global level.

 

[JohnBiltz]

First thing, this article was from Bloomberg. I would not expect anything approaching honesty about guns from them.

2017 is going to be one of the best years for gun sales on record. Guns are selling, they are not selling enough to get rid of the glut because they stocked up expecting the best year in history by a lot when Hillary won.

Those special offers by S&W cost them. Everyone was wondering how S&W was doing it, now we know.

S&W is only one part of its parent corporation. No one seems to be commenting on what is going on there.

 

[BSA1]

There is not going to be a war with NK. They can't afford to lose or win a war. Ever encounter an aggressive panhandler? That is NK on a global level.

Maybe or maybe not. That is a topic outside of THR.

You are missing my point that demand for guns and ammunition is often driven by politics and real or perceived threats.

 

[hdwhit]

I've got several guns and related items I would like to buy, but in the last few months I've dropped money on new tires and suspension work on the car, a new clothes dryer, a new dishwasher, Christmas gifts for the family, Christmas gifts for those less fortunate, and, well, there's not a lot of spare cash for things I "want" but don't "need".

I'm sure I'm not the only person in this situation.

 

[Deltaboy1984]

I got to save some money and get an AR!

 

[FN in MT]

I know a couple of fools who were not firearms savvy at all and before the election in 2016 both spent silly high prices for several lower level AR's and hundreds of overpriced magazines. Both have been panicked for a few months now, offering me bargain prices on their items that are still crazy high for what they are.

I'm interested to hear what the "future holds" buzz at Shot Show may be next month.

 

[BSA1]

I know a couple of fools who were not firearms savvy at all and before the election in 2016 both spent silly high prices for several lower level AR's and hundreds of overpriced magazines. Both have been panicked for a few months now, offering me bargain prices on their items that are still crazy high for what they are.

They still seem foolish to me by wanting to sell them at a loss.

Most of us will agree that when the other major political party gets back in power another panic will occur which will be the time to sell to recoup their money.

Of course if they sell their guns now that means they will over pay for them when the next panic occurs.

Some folks never seem to learn.

 

[Captcurt]

I got to save some money and get an AR!

They are a dime a dozen now. I saw an Omni Hybrid for $339, M&P Sport for under $500. If you want one there are plenty out there for a song.

 

[Panzerschwein]

Good time to be a gun buyer. Also this type of stuff spurs innovation.

 

[roscoe]

And yet the Winchester leverguns go for $1200. I would love one of their takedown models, but it is not $1500 worth of love.