Guns and cartridges you expect will be extinct in 30 years
- Thread starter Jason_W
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Maybe they'll finally kill off those stinky, smokey cap n balls
I certainly hope not
I see the future of 3D printing to be a boon large manufacturers needing enough orders to make a run and a godsend to reloaders trying out different flavors of "extinct" cartridges. With the advents of cheaper/stronger polymers, we may see the need for brass as a thing of the past, or at the very least an easily printed super cheap alloy that will mimic the properties of brass.
While I know we are decades away from crafting fine firearms in this way, not to mention the legal ramifications of printing a working gun, I think the technology will progress to the point that it will be a reloader's best friend if all one had to do was buy/print his bullets and "brass". Primers and powders would be all you need, and most of them aren't cartridge specific
Also, think about how quality printing will be able to repair guns you can no longer get parts for. Crack a firing pin or sear, just download the instructions and print one out.
While manufacturers may start to shift to the more entry level markets, I don't think they'll stay there. Most of the influx of gun sales has to do with new shooters. New shooters want cost effective and easy. I was the same way. However, as my love of firearms grew, I started purchasing guns outside the box that were more expensive or aesthetically pleasing or just plain cool
If gun culture continues to thrive, in 30 years we may see a golden age in the manufacturing of guns of varied types married to a radical new way to revitalize older defunct misfires of days past.
I certainly hope not
I see the future of 3D printing to be a boon large manufacturers needing enough orders to make a run and a godsend to reloaders trying out different flavors of "extinct" cartridges. With the advents of cheaper/stronger polymers, we may see the need for brass as a thing of the past, or at the very least an easily printed super cheap alloy that will mimic the properties of brass.
While I know we are decades away from crafting fine firearms in this way, not to mention the legal ramifications of printing a working gun, I think the technology will progress to the point that it will be a reloader's best friend if all one had to do was buy/print his bullets and "brass". Primers and powders would be all you need, and most of them aren't cartridge specific
Also, think about how quality printing will be able to repair guns you can no longer get parts for. Crack a firing pin or sear, just download the instructions and print one out.
While manufacturers may start to shift to the more entry level markets, I don't think they'll stay there. Most of the influx of gun sales has to do with new shooters. New shooters want cost effective and easy. I was the same way. However, as my love of firearms grew, I started purchasing guns outside the box that were more expensive or aesthetically pleasing or just plain cool
If gun culture continues to thrive, in 30 years we may see a golden age in the manufacturing of guns of varied types married to a radical new way to revitalize older defunct misfires of days past.
CraigC
Sixgun Nut
Agreed!!!
Jason, you need to get out more and stop being so negative, son!
Tanshanomi
Member
Considering that you can still buy new-production 7.7x58 Arisaka ammo, I have to agree that it's pretty tough for stuff to evaporate completely. The guns may not be produced, but SOMEONE is going to manufacture ammo for just about anything out there. One of the biggest flops I can think of was the 5mm Rimfire Magnum, but even those rounds were being produced by Centurion from 2005 until sometime last year.
Bigdog57
Member
In thirty years, you'll have to go to the Old West Scrounger to find stuff like .17HM2, .17Hornet, .222Rem., .22Short.
8mm Mauser will be as scarce as 7mm Mauser is now, for the same reason. Ditto for .303 British.
Finding a nice unbutchered Mosin-Nagant rifle will be harder.
8mm Mauser will be as scarce as 7mm Mauser is now, for the same reason. Ditto for .303 British.
Finding a nice unbutchered Mosin-Nagant rifle will be harder.
buck460XVR
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....and when manufacturers introduce new models to fill a niche they do not currently fill, they do not stop production of all their previously popular and successful ones. I wonder what the comparison between units sold are of Ruger's revolvers that have been in production for years and that one new "polymer pistol of some kind"? Rugers 10/22 was introduced over half a century ago and is still one of the highest selling .22 rifles produced. Your assumption that only newly introduced models are the only indication of the near future of firearms is pretty short sighted. Same goes for lever action carbines.
I have two sons, one is 34 and the other is 22. Between them they have 3 ARs and 6 lever action carbines. My oldest son just bought a Henry lever action .22 for his 7 year old daughter. Odds are she will pass it down to one of her kids. This is not the exception. Just ask Henry Firearms how they are doing. Your preferences alone will not determine what continues to be shot in 30 years. 30 years ago when polymer pistols first started to appear, folks said the 1911 was dead. It is more popular now than ever with virtually every handgun manufacturer producing it's own variant. Those guns will not be gone in a mere 30 years, but will be continued to be shot. BTW....my sons do not own any polymer guns, but do own 1911s. Most of their friends also own 1911s or wish they did. Again, not exceptions, but the norm. Handguns made with steel will be around for more than 30 years.
15 years ago one was hard pressed to find anyone producing affordable SxS shotguns. Now I see them more often in LGS than I do the AR type you are saying is taking over the shotgunning world. While I know that my small part of the world is not indicative of world demand, I'm thinking you are using a even smaller piece to the puzzle to formulate your assumptions.
The Op's list may very well indicate the most popular cartridges at the time for the casual user and self defense discipline, but I think one must consider the other disciplines that will be around at the time. There seems to be a wealth of growing and new shooting sports and disciplines and the market will supply them. For example the OP left out any long range shooting calibers. The 7.62x54R already has a number of new production makers and it is still the main battle caliber in many parts of the world that will be making surplus ammo for a long time, just like the x39.
OilyPablo
Member
At least people gave up on saying 10mm will be dead in 3 years.
Jason_W
Member
You may very well be right. As I said, I'm a dyed in the wool pessimist, so my brain is incapable of envisioning a future world that isn't at least kinda awful.
Hopefully, a large portion of the population will still have an appreciation of and desire for walnut and steel a century down the road and beyond.
Tanshanomi
Member
.22 Remington Jet. I predict that in 30 years it will still be dead.
savanahsdad
Member
Jason W: a thread I started in 2012 is still going "Deer Camp Guns.What are You Seeing" it is the only thread I started , check it out , it may help change your point of view .
denton
Member
In the US, there are more people in the shooting sports than there have ever been. That creates greater markets, that will support more variety, than we have ever seen.
I have a 1917 Carl Gustaf 6.5x55 that wears a 1917 barrel. I have an 1898 Tula Mosin with a Finnish 1944 barrel. Both of those have survived for over 100 years. I expect that both will be doing well 30 years from now.
The recent "cromnibus" bill that funded the government for another year has a short little provision tucked inside that forbids the federal government to deny import licenses for firearms made in the US (but presently held outside the US). So might we see a few 100,000 M1 Carbines brought back to the US from Korea? What might that do to the market for M1 Carbine ammunition and reloading supplies? Hard to say.
I have a 1917 Carl Gustaf 6.5x55 that wears a 1917 barrel. I have an 1898 Tula Mosin with a Finnish 1944 barrel. Both of those have survived for over 100 years. I expect that both will be doing well 30 years from now.
The recent "cromnibus" bill that funded the government for another year has a short little provision tucked inside that forbids the federal government to deny import licenses for firearms made in the US (but presently held outside the US). So might we see a few 100,000 M1 Carbines brought back to the US from Korea? What might that do to the market for M1 Carbine ammunition and reloading supplies? Hard to say.
Shanghai McCoy
Member
My 32 Winchester Special carbine is already on the "Endangered" list these days based on ammo availability. But then they were never very numerous anyway...
savanahsdad
Member
at least you can buy ammo for you 32winSpl , I have to role my own for my 32rem
TRX
Member
The 'net makes it easy to obtain ammunition for anything. I can get .30 Remington or 9mm Largo with a few clicks of the mouse. I can buy paper 14-gauge shotshells (yes, there is a 14 gauge), 8mm French pinfire, .357 Auto Mag... I don't know where I can buy .45 Mars, but I'm sure I could find a specialist reloader willing to make some up.
It's not like the old days, where we were limited to local gun shops and a handful of mail order outfits.
It's not like the old days, where we were limited to local gun shops and a handful of mail order outfits.
Man what you think is going to happen in 30 years is already happening. I went into a gun shop today and the only wood they had in the entire place was the wood the shelving was made out of. It was a tacticool place. And it was busy.
It is true that good revolvers and levers and such still get snatched up as soon as they come out. But there is not much if any good inventory being added to classic designs and certainly fewer new shooters have any interest in it. One thing that has clearly happened in the last five years or so is the major manufacturers have killed off more cartridges than ever before. The market is clearly getting leaner. My guess is in the next 10 years you will see more and more factory produced ammo discontinued like the 250 savage, 222 rem, etc. IN 30 years it will be much more streamlined than it is today. I do believe that.
It is true that good revolvers and levers and such still get snatched up as soon as they come out. But there is not much if any good inventory being added to classic designs and certainly fewer new shooters have any interest in it. One thing that has clearly happened in the last five years or so is the major manufacturers have killed off more cartridges than ever before. The market is clearly getting leaner. My guess is in the next 10 years you will see more and more factory produced ammo discontinued like the 250 savage, 222 rem, etc. IN 30 years it will be much more streamlined than it is today. I do believe that.
wanderinwalker
Member
Man, I meant to hop into this earlier when I first spotted it!
Anyway, I don't foresee any rounds or firearm types truly going extinct in the next 30 years. Maybe the .45 GAP, essentially DOA, will finally be given a TOD, the WSSMs and the RSAUMs will join the .30 and .32 Remington, but most anything else will still be around.
Your .300 Winchester Magnum, .300 WSM, 7mm Remington Magnum, .270 Winchester, .30-06, .30-30, .243 Winchester, 7mm-08 (among others) will definitely be around. They're far too popular as hunting rifles to ever go anywhere.
And the .38/357 revolver will disappear in the next 30 years? I doubt that! One, any recent manufactured .38/357 revolver will still be going strong 30 years from now. Two, there are plenty of people who think "wheel guns are real guns." Three, while the polite little 9mm, .40 and .45 ACP make good personal defense calibers, they really aren't close to the power league of a good magnum revolver round. (I'm of two minds on this particular issue: a 9mm or .45 ACP will do all I REALISTICALLY need a handgun to do. But my .357 Magnums will do anything I might POTENTIALLY ask of a pistol.) And four, there are a lot of nice old S&W, Colt and even Ruger (sorry, pains me to call them "nice" in the same way as the other two) revolvers in .38/357 that will continue to see service in many roles, and they will need ammo.
As much as I appreciate and shoot my "military" style 9mms and .223s, I am very glad there are a lot more platform and caliber options available to enjoy. Shooting and firearms shouldn't just be about self-defense or just be about hunting, it's also a lot of just being fun and interesting.
Anyway, I don't foresee any rounds or firearm types truly going extinct in the next 30 years. Maybe the .45 GAP, essentially DOA, will finally be given a TOD, the WSSMs and the RSAUMs will join the .30 and .32 Remington, but most anything else will still be around.
Your .300 Winchester Magnum, .300 WSM, 7mm Remington Magnum, .270 Winchester, .30-06, .30-30, .243 Winchester, 7mm-08 (among others) will definitely be around. They're far too popular as hunting rifles to ever go anywhere.
And the .38/357 revolver will disappear in the next 30 years? I doubt that! One, any recent manufactured .38/357 revolver will still be going strong 30 years from now. Two, there are plenty of people who think "wheel guns are real guns." Three, while the polite little 9mm, .40 and .45 ACP make good personal defense calibers, they really aren't close to the power league of a good magnum revolver round. (I'm of two minds on this particular issue: a 9mm or .45 ACP will do all I REALISTICALLY need a handgun to do. But my .357 Magnums will do anything I might POTENTIALLY ask of a pistol.) And four, there are a lot of nice old S&W, Colt and even Ruger (sorry, pains me to call them "nice" in the same way as the other two) revolvers in .38/357 that will continue to see service in many roles, and they will need ammo.
As much as I appreciate and shoot my "military" style 9mms and .223s, I am very glad there are a lot more platform and caliber options available to enjoy. Shooting and firearms shouldn't just be about self-defense or just be about hunting, it's also a lot of just being fun and interesting.
So you think companies will stop making 5 shot snub nose revolvers. I highly doubt that. They sale very well currently. Ruger and Taurus are even bringing out new models. They wouldn't be spending the money of development of totally new guns if they didn't think they would sell.
I don't have the numbers, but I suspect the S&W J Frame is still one of the highest selling conceal carry gun. The design of these small revolvers is just too good to go away.
I have a S&W Bodyguard 380, a Colt Mustang 380, a Kimber Solo 9mm, a J Frame and 2 Ruger LCRs.
I keep going back to the revolvers, they are still the best conceal carry gun made.
USAF_Vet
Member
As long as there continues to be a market, however small, for the 9mm Flobert shot shell, not much will realistically go extinct.
Gun Master
Member
wannabeagunsmith
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Hey, I am 19 and just recently I scrambled to get a WInchester 94 30-30.. I love the old gun, sure I like my semiautos but the wood and steel combo has much more of a "soul", sort of a window into the past of the old gunfighters that I appreciate. And yeah I feel 200% more badass racking the lever on that thing than closing the charging handle on my carbine. Haha.
Phaedrus/69
Member
I think in 30 years we'll have almost all of the ones we have now plus some we haven't created yet.
Elkins45
Member
What's really the difference between a Ruger 77, Remington 700, Browning X bolt, Winchester 70? The same argument applies at all levels of perceived value or quality.
This is fun speculation, but like all future predictions it's influenced by a whole bunch of stuff we don't know. But just for the fun of it:
1) S&W is selling alloy framed J frame 5 shot 38 and 357 revolvers as fast as they can make them. No reason to believe that will change.
2) Here's my metric for the popularity of a handgun cartridge: how easily can you buy boxes of cheap once-fired brass? By that metric there are three popular pistol cartridges today--9mm, 40 s&w, and 357 Sig. As long as Texas DPS and the Secret Service keep using 357 Sig then it will still suit my needs just fine. I like being able to buy 1K of once-fired brass for $40.
3) When I first saw the thread title I immediately thought "short magnums"
4) 410 shotgun will never go away. It's what many kids start with, and people will still be buying it to shoot out of their Judge or Governor.
bikerdoc
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9mm Mak and 9mm largo
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