Salmoneye
Member
And you see a drop in production in manufacturing and sales of guns in .38/357 at this time do you?
*popcorn*
Guns and cartridges you expect will be extinct in 30 years
- Thread starter Jason_W
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And you see a drop in production in manufacturing and sales of guns in .38/357 at this time do you?
*popcorn*
I don't think many wheel guns will go either. Cowboy shooting is getting bigger. And there's nothing like shooting a good long barrel smith at the range. Also smith airweights are getting huge in the CC market. They have evolved into much more than an "ankle carry belly gun" of the past. Ruger also makes the LCR snubbies but I have never shot one.
Jason_W
Member
Not so well.
However, I was 4 and was fairly certain I could grow up to be a Ghost Buster
Thermactor
member
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well then in that case add 7.62x54r (still used in conflict areas and by countless nations) and i'm already good to go!
A couple of weeks ago during a cool snap, I cast twenty pounds of pure lead round balls and a few Minié balls for use in a pair of very old black power rifles. Given that sort of activity, and counting the number of alloy bullets I cast in a year's time, I don't see many cartridges just disappearing. Maybe loss of favor among some shooters.
Of course some will for sure, but you can still buy 44 Russian brass from Starline and that cartridge was designed in 1870. And its a good round to load and shoot.
Where there's a will; there's a way. Too many fine old cartridges and guns still around.
Of course some will for sure, but you can still buy 44 Russian brass from Starline and that cartridge was designed in 1870. And its a good round to load and shoot.
Where there's a will; there's a way. Too many fine old cartridges and guns still around.
Jason_W
Member
Of all revolvers, actually. Not that they'll all be gone or anything so extreme.
It's simply due to the facts:
1. A Majority of US gun buyers view revolvers as obsolete and inferior to autos (I personally disagree, of course, but I am not among the majority)
2. Reliable polymer pistols can be cranked out far more quickly and cheaply than revolvers and Americans love a bargain.
What I predict is that the major manufacturers will still produce revolvers in the year 2045 and beyond, but they will be special edition items aimed at a small number of aficionados.
It's simply due to the facts:
1. A Majority of US gun buyers view revolvers as obsolete and inferior to autos (I personally disagree, of course, but I am not among the majority)
2. Reliable polymer pistols can be cranked out far more quickly and cheaply than revolvers and Americans love a bargain.
What I predict is that the major manufacturers will still produce revolvers in the year 2045 and beyond, but they will be special edition items aimed at a small number of aficionados.
leadcounsel
member
I agree with the poster about 3D printing. Once that becomes widely and cheaply available there will be a flood of home-made gun parts plastic and then metal. Imagine how cool that will be - need a little spring for a part, buy the software and press print. Need a small screw, press print. Need a set of grips for your 1911, press print! New Glock frame, press print.
I think the changes for CIVILIAN guns will be minor in the next 3 decades, unless some materials are developed that replace steel found in slides, barrels, etc. I doubt that occurs.
Otherwise, we've reached the zenith in designs for ergonomics and controls and such.
No idea what winners and losers as far as calibers, but would suggest that the niche calibers like .327 and perhaps some of the WSSMs and WSMs which are redundant will die off.
I would expect to see the design of caseless ammo that works, but it'll be designed to work in already production weapons.
I'm perhaps the last generation of folks that like bluing, wood, and steel and wheelguns and I as born in the 1970s. So in 30 years my generation will be dying off statistically. Blued and steel guns will reach quite venerable ages as well and parts for repairs get harder to find... so these guns over time will end up set aside - or perhaps actually IN gun shops for repairs or trade ins.
Military hardware will likely change. There are advances in ammo propulsion which will likely impact those - but that will be prohibited from civilian use.
I think the changes for CIVILIAN guns will be minor in the next 3 decades, unless some materials are developed that replace steel found in slides, barrels, etc. I doubt that occurs.
Otherwise, we've reached the zenith in designs for ergonomics and controls and such.
No idea what winners and losers as far as calibers, but would suggest that the niche calibers like .327 and perhaps some of the WSSMs and WSMs which are redundant will die off.
I would expect to see the design of caseless ammo that works, but it'll be designed to work in already production weapons.
I'm perhaps the last generation of folks that like bluing, wood, and steel and wheelguns and I as born in the 1970s. So in 30 years my generation will be dying off statistically. Blued and steel guns will reach quite venerable ages as well and parts for repairs get harder to find... so these guns over time will end up set aside - or perhaps actually IN gun shops for repairs or trade ins.
Military hardware will likely change. There are advances in ammo propulsion which will likely impact those - but that will be prohibited from civilian use.
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Jason_W
Member
I'm one generation after you (barely) and I'm partial to wood and steel as well. I'll confess to liking the look of stainless, though.
I think the preference largely has to due with the kinds of guns I used for hunting during my formative years. In rural Vermont in the 80s and 90s, synthetic stocks and AR pattern rifles were practically nonexistent. Lost of .30-30 leverguns and .30-06 bolt rifles. Some guys who wanted to be a little different carried Remington 760s in .30-06 or .270.
Shovelhead
Member
.38/.357 shotshells already seem to be extinct and have been for the past year.
Vodoun da Vinci
Member
I dunno...it's cool to speculate a bit. I'm a big "write it down and see if it happens" kind of guy who ran my own electronics business for 20 years and had to analyze trends and such to modify a business that existed in an environment that was changing daily.
The present trend in that field? I tried to predict it but the only prediction that came true was to be agile and flexible because it was gonna change and change fast but where it was going would not be clear until shortly before it went there.
I doubt we have much idea of where a lot of things will be in 30 years and firearms/calibers are no different. It's gonna change but change in the next 30 years will be more than the change we have seen in the last 100. I think it's fun to speculate but I'd not take any of that to the bank. It's not impossible for anything to happen.
VooDoo
The present trend in that field? I tried to predict it but the only prediction that came true was to be agile and flexible because it was gonna change and change fast but where it was going would not be clear until shortly before it went there.
I doubt we have much idea of where a lot of things will be in 30 years and firearms/calibers are no different. It's gonna change but change in the next 30 years will be more than the change we have seen in the last 100. I think it's fun to speculate but I'd not take any of that to the bank. It's not impossible for anything to happen.
VooDoo
BSA1
member
Jason,
With all due respect your view is very narrow.
We are living in the golden age of firearms and ammunition developments and improvements. Our choices of firearms of all types and price ranges has never been better. Radically new bullet designs are hitting the market every day (Hornady Flextip for example). Consider the new life that the 9mm is enjoying. All but dead 30 years ago now probably the most popular self-defense handgun cartridge in the U.S.
I expect niche handgun cartridges such as the 327 Federal and 357 SIG to die off along with some rifle rounds. On the other hand manufacturers will be introducing new rounds and bullets designs and old favorites will enjoy improved sales as the new generation "rediscover" Grandpas old guns.
The revolver being dead? Hardly. Take a look at their sales now. Small frame revolvers enjoy good sales with women for concealed carry. Consider that California is killing off sales of new semi-autos. Is it really realistic to expect the gun laws in California (and Washington and Oregon States) to become less restrictive?
AR's, while popular, simply don't the needs of many shooters in the real world. See my thread about the Savage Hog Hunter in 308.
With all due respect your view is very narrow.
We are living in the golden age of firearms and ammunition developments and improvements. Our choices of firearms of all types and price ranges has never been better. Radically new bullet designs are hitting the market every day (Hornady Flextip for example). Consider the new life that the 9mm is enjoying. All but dead 30 years ago now probably the most popular self-defense handgun cartridge in the U.S.
I expect niche handgun cartridges such as the 327 Federal and 357 SIG to die off along with some rifle rounds. On the other hand manufacturers will be introducing new rounds and bullets designs and old favorites will enjoy improved sales as the new generation "rediscover" Grandpas old guns.
The revolver being dead? Hardly. Take a look at their sales now. Small frame revolvers enjoy good sales with women for concealed carry. Consider that California is killing off sales of new semi-autos. Is it really realistic to expect the gun laws in California (and Washington and Oregon States) to become less restrictive?
AR's, while popular, simply don't the needs of many shooters in the real world. See my thread about the Savage Hog Hunter in 308.
I don't think any modern popular cartridges will go by the wayside in the next 30 years. Could you imagine 9mm or .45ACP being non existent within that time? Around here anyway (TN) revolvers are really popular and used ones always bring a good price to the seller. Of course most everyone who owns revolvers will own autos as well around here, and for the most part vise versa. I'm somewhat young (32) and somewhat of a traditionalist, I appreciate and prefer wood and bluing. That said I considered retiring my deer rifle this year for stainless metal and a synthetic stock, I just think a lighter rifle that won't rust is better suited for my hunting needs. That said if I went down that road I'd be buying it in .270 because in my opinion that round works awesome for me, I'm sure I'll think the same in 30 years.
wannabeagunsmith
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- 669
I am gonna have to say, the .380 ACP is here to stay. There are soo many guns as of late chambered in this, all mouse guns but still i don't see it going anywhere.
HankB
Member
Consider the .300 WSM, the .300 RCM, and .300 RSAUM . . . I will be very surprised if all three of these non-interchangeable ballistic twins (triplets?) are still in mass production.
Other proprietary or semi-proprietary rounds are on shaky ground as well - so you may have difficulty finding ammo for your .338 Federal. (BTW, has anyone seen 9mm Federal on the shelf recently? Or .475 Wildey?)
I believe the resumed manufacture of 5mm Remington Magnum Rimfire ammo is temporary, and won't be continuing in 2045.
By that time - 100 years after the end of WWII - it's quite possible nobody will be loading the 6.5 Jap and 7.7 Jap cartridges any more, since great-great grandpa's Japanese war trophy will probably have been retired from range and hunting duty.
I still imagine a few dedicated handloaders will keep all the oddballs in service, forming their own brass, loading their own ammo, etc. But fewer of the BIG makers will be offering loaded ammo for rounds with miniscule volumes.
Other proprietary or semi-proprietary rounds are on shaky ground as well - so you may have difficulty finding ammo for your .338 Federal. (BTW, has anyone seen 9mm Federal on the shelf recently? Or .475 Wildey?)
I believe the resumed manufacture of 5mm Remington Magnum Rimfire ammo is temporary, and won't be continuing in 2045.
By that time - 100 years after the end of WWII - it's quite possible nobody will be loading the 6.5 Jap and 7.7 Jap cartridges any more, since great-great grandpa's Japanese war trophy will probably have been retired from range and hunting duty.
I still imagine a few dedicated handloaders will keep all the oddballs in service, forming their own brass, loading their own ammo, etc. But fewer of the BIG makers will be offering loaded ammo for rounds with miniscule volumes.
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illinoisburt
Member
Guns and cartidges that become extinct? Well most likely extinct is overly broad in that there are plenty of specialty shops turning out product. However if you mean not generally considered standard "modern" equipment or making up large volumes of sales then there are plenty going away. For example, derringers and small "ring-of-fire" pocket pistols are not built and sold in large volume anymore but you can certainly get a new one by shopping around. Same goes for wood-and-steel PCC's.
I believe if the current trend of allowing straight-walled and magnum-pistol chambered rifles in what was traditionally shotgun slug only states continues to expand that the entire market for rifled shotguns and inline muzzleloaders will disappear within a generation. Sure used ones will still be around, but new guns will be speciality items few and far between. All those expensive sabot slugs will meet the same fate. (Suspect also see compound bows being relegated to "traditional archery" status where recurves are today with the growing acceptance of crossbows.)
Wood stock rifles will become specialty order, or only high-end or commemorative runs. Snubby and pocket sized revolvers same fate. There isn't enough demand to build many today, and it will only get worse over time. Lever actions will fade away, as will the entire cowboy action shooting sport taking the reproduction and black powder market with it.
Ammo calibers that are popular today but have with limited application that will likely be hard to find and expensive (including many "say-it-aint-so's"): 7.62x54R (same fate as the other WWI/WWII rounds like 6.5mm, 7mm, and 8mm from various countries since the supply of mosin-nagants will soon dry up and no one chambers new rifles for them in volume), 30 carbine (very few new guns), 9x18 (no new guns), 7.62x38 (no new guns), 5.45x39 (only use is AK pattern rifles which will be overtaken by 223 chambering in the US market), all of the short/fat magnums (which were specialties to begin with anyway), 357SIG (too limited today, much less in the future).
The great-great-great-grandpappy 30 years from now will be the 45ACP. It won't be gone, but will be pretty much relegated to a limited non-military/non-leo market as the 1911 pattern pistols (which I do like) become specialty market handguns only due to cost of ammo, limited capacity, weight, and cost to build all-steel guns.
Sure that I missed plenty. However a quick list of what WILL still be around: 223/556, 762x39, 308/30-06 (although if nato drops the 7.62x51 standard then watch that round start to wither), 22LR, 9mm, 40cal (if adopted by US armed forces and NATO will surely dent the 9mm market).
I believe if the current trend of allowing straight-walled and magnum-pistol chambered rifles in what was traditionally shotgun slug only states continues to expand that the entire market for rifled shotguns and inline muzzleloaders will disappear within a generation. Sure used ones will still be around, but new guns will be speciality items few and far between. All those expensive sabot slugs will meet the same fate. (Suspect also see compound bows being relegated to "traditional archery" status where recurves are today with the growing acceptance of crossbows.)
Wood stock rifles will become specialty order, or only high-end or commemorative runs. Snubby and pocket sized revolvers same fate. There isn't enough demand to build many today, and it will only get worse over time. Lever actions will fade away, as will the entire cowboy action shooting sport taking the reproduction and black powder market with it.
Ammo calibers that are popular today but have with limited application that will likely be hard to find and expensive (including many "say-it-aint-so's"): 7.62x54R (same fate as the other WWI/WWII rounds like 6.5mm, 7mm, and 8mm from various countries since the supply of mosin-nagants will soon dry up and no one chambers new rifles for them in volume), 30 carbine (very few new guns), 9x18 (no new guns), 7.62x38 (no new guns), 5.45x39 (only use is AK pattern rifles which will be overtaken by 223 chambering in the US market), all of the short/fat magnums (which were specialties to begin with anyway), 357SIG (too limited today, much less in the future).
The great-great-great-grandpappy 30 years from now will be the 45ACP. It won't be gone, but will be pretty much relegated to a limited non-military/non-leo market as the 1911 pattern pistols (which I do like) become specialty market handguns only due to cost of ammo, limited capacity, weight, and cost to build all-steel guns.
Sure that I missed plenty. However a quick list of what WILL still be around: 223/556, 762x39, 308/30-06 (although if nato drops the 7.62x51 standard then watch that round start to wither), 22LR, 9mm, 40cal (if adopted by US armed forces and NATO will surely dent the 9mm market).
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Gun Master
Member
2045 A.D. Flash
I'll only be 106 !!! Whop-pi-ee !
Pass me that plasma thingie, and don't forget the COLT 1911, Remington 870 12 ga., S&W Model 10, SKS, AK-47, M-14, M-16, and anything else you find in the crypt.
True that. There are over 20 million deer in the United States at the moment and the numbers keep growing. More than when Columbus sailed in 1492.
Hunting will become stronger, and most of those, "to be extinct" cartridges, will still be thriving in 2045.
I'm bookmarking this thread for '45. I'll only be 102 by then!
I'll only be 106 !!! Whop-pi-ee !
Pass me that plasma thingie, and don't forget the COLT 1911, Remington 870 12 ga., S&W Model 10, SKS, AK-47, M-14, M-16, and anything else you find in the crypt.
Gun Master
Member
leadcounsel
member
Given there are MILLIONS of Mosin Nagants and a fair number of PSLs in the US market, I care do disagree. The surplus ammo will ultimately be gone, but with that demand there will always be new makers for it.
As far as 5.56, or 5.45, not sure what you were saying, but neither of those are going anywhere in the next 30 years.
Jason_W
Member
Sort of, but not really.
What's the difference between a Glock, a Springfield XD, and the S&W M&P? Minor variations in appearance and ergonomics, etc. At their core, all three are just polymer pistols chambered for common semi-auto handgun rounds.
What's really the difference between the savage Axis, the Ruger American, The Mossberg ATR, the Marlin X series, and the TC Venture?
When was the last time a manufacturer introduced a new gun that made you excited? I might just be jaded, but my response to new guns over the last few years has been a sarcastic, "Yay, yet another AR?budget bolt action?polymer auto."
leadcounsel
member
I agree we are in the golden age of guns and ownership.
Most places guns are a right, carry is allowed, and there's no restrictions on magazines and no registration. Some of that may change for better or worse...
But for most people, an awesome reliable handgun, hunting rifle, or shotgun or military style rifle is about 1 weeks pay. Nearly everything is available and affordable (except NFA stuff, and tax stamps are really quite affordable given their significant increases over the last few years).
The fact that nothing new/exciting is out is a matter of perspective. I get quite a rush with the current selections available and don't have enough money to buy all the guns I lust over. My wish list is very big, even for duplicates.
I really don't have a need for a new design that needs to be filled, frankly. And I view that as a relatively good thing. How much better selection can a person legitimately want? We have very high capacity concealable handguns that weight a pound, and matching full sized counterparts for home defense. Military style rifles with awesome upgrades and ergonomics. Bullpups for compactness. Amazing hunting rifles. Stores and shops filled with endless supplies and components and accessories.
And I could always hoard more ammo and magazines and parts...
This is in fact the golden age we are experiencing right now. I could get better, but that's mostly changes in laws, not hardware... the NFA stands in the way of the next major sweeping changes, not technology.
Most places guns are a right, carry is allowed, and there's no restrictions on magazines and no registration. Some of that may change for better or worse...
But for most people, an awesome reliable handgun, hunting rifle, or shotgun or military style rifle is about 1 weeks pay. Nearly everything is available and affordable (except NFA stuff, and tax stamps are really quite affordable given their significant increases over the last few years).
The fact that nothing new/exciting is out is a matter of perspective. I get quite a rush with the current selections available and don't have enough money to buy all the guns I lust over. My wish list is very big, even for duplicates.
I really don't have a need for a new design that needs to be filled, frankly. And I view that as a relatively good thing. How much better selection can a person legitimately want? We have very high capacity concealable handguns that weight a pound, and matching full sized counterparts for home defense. Military style rifles with awesome upgrades and ergonomics. Bullpups for compactness. Amazing hunting rifles. Stores and shops filled with endless supplies and components and accessories.
And I could always hoard more ammo and magazines and parts...
This is in fact the golden age we are experiencing right now. I could get better, but that's mostly changes in laws, not hardware... the NFA stands in the way of the next major sweeping changes, not technology.
Neo-Luddite
Member
Yeh, and we were never going to see new record players for sale or new LP's pressed in quantity. Cowboy shooting brought back many calibers from the brink--.45LC is a pretty common item nowadays when it wasn't 30 years ago. Modern loadings drive old cartridges like the 45/70 Gov. to new heights. Yet there is no doubt 5.56 will soon pass .30/06 as the most-popular centerfire rifle cartridge. My point being, the market has its swings, but Americans tend to have a cult-like fondness for tried-and-true calibers.
The only caliber I wouldn't plan on seeing very often is .45 GAP ~ I'd put money on that one.
The only caliber I wouldn't plan on seeing very often is .45 GAP ~ I'd put money on that one.
ApacheCoTodd
member
Extinction's a tough thing to prescient about...
One-off military use aside and even then, it was not the best idea going - the 30-40 Krag just won't die.
3 years after swearing off my last Krag - today, I picked up yet another sporterized, old-school hunter grade 30-40.
I now recognize that I AM the problem.
As far as my own predictions - gonna be the .40S&W. No question!
Gawd almighty but I hate fads!
Todd.
One-off military use aside and even then, it was not the best idea going - the 30-40 Krag just won't die.
3 years after swearing off my last Krag - today, I picked up yet another sporterized, old-school hunter grade 30-40.
I now recognize that I AM the problem.
As far as my own predictions - gonna be the .40S&W. No question!
Gawd almighty but I hate fads!
Todd.
MachIVshooter
Member
A few niche and proprietary cartridges will more or less perish. .45 GAP, .50 GI, .327 Federal, possibly .357 SIG, some of the short mag and uber magnum rifle rounds. They will become boutique and handloader only propositions.
Firearms? I can see many of the PCCs disappearing, and some other obscure weapons like the Boberg pistols and Chiappa Rhino. Conventional designs will continue to evolve, specific models will come and go, and some manufacturers will fade away while others emerge. In the end, though, I just don't foresee any of the tried and true examples going anywhere. From single action revolvers to pump shotguns to ARs and everything in between, what exists in the marketplace today will likely be complemented rather than replaced in three decades.
Think about it: The Peacemaker and the Winchester '94 have been technically obsolete for over a century, yet today we have not only the original companies still making them, but a number of others offering both lower and higher quality replicas.
Firearms? I can see many of the PCCs disappearing, and some other obscure weapons like the Boberg pistols and Chiappa Rhino. Conventional designs will continue to evolve, specific models will come and go, and some manufacturers will fade away while others emerge. In the end, though, I just don't foresee any of the tried and true examples going anywhere. From single action revolvers to pump shotguns to ARs and everything in between, what exists in the marketplace today will likely be complemented rather than replaced in three decades.
Think about it: The Peacemaker and the Winchester '94 have been technically obsolete for over a century, yet today we have not only the original companies still making them, but a number of others offering both lower and higher quality replicas.
BSA1
member
Yesterday. The Savage Hog Hunter in 308. I don't know when it was introduced but yesterday was the first time I saw and handled one. I have absolutely no need for it but that isn't going to stop me from getting one.
Handguns? The two new Berretta 92's. Ruger New Vaquero.
Still bored?
Try blackpowder shooting . There are bunch of cap and ball revolvers and rifles.
Still bored?
Try flintlocks.
Ok. you want other modern new products. Build your own custom guns.
I have a Ruger Single-Six in 41 Special that was built for me. Probably only a dozen of them made.
Future projects;
Ruger New Vaquero. Adding adjustable sights and usual stuff like action job, trimming some metal off here and there, refinishing.
How about a S&W Model 586 converted to 41 Special?
How about some used stuff?
A Lee Enfield .303.
A 1917 in 30.06.
How about getting outside and hunting buffalo with single-shot big bore buffalo guns like the Remington Rolling Block or the Sharps in 40-65, 45-70, 45-90, 45-100, 45-110 or 50-90? Filled with blackpowder of course and shooting from cross-sticks using tang rear sight and globe front sight.
Build a custom rifle and go hunting elk on horseback.
Gun cranks never run out of guns and cartridges to get excited about.
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