How will the recession affect gun purchases?

[Newton]

The last gun show I visited back in April was a significantly smaller version of its prior self, and a chat with a dealer I know who was selling there identified that sales are down.

He made a point that I can identify with. For people who buy a lot of guns, they are essentially toys, grown up toys, but toys all the same. The point being that they are low on the list of "essentials" and rather like eating out, gun purchases (and ammunition purchases) are going to be falling as the recession begins to bite harder into the average citizens pocket book.

So what do you guys think, have you noticed any trends lately, either with your own purchases or in those of others?

 

[brighamr]

I don't believe in the "recession" that we hear about so often. Personally, I think it's over-spending by the .gov and illegal practices by the mortgage company that got america into this current mess.


As for guns, it's kind of odd. The local shop I go to said the first quarter of this year has been there busiest in a long time. A lot of people are afraid of the election (at least that's what I hear while shopping).

Truth be told, I've bought 4 firearms, a nice reloading press and a bunch of components. Then again, I didn't have to forclose my house and I don't have any kids. I'm sure the gun related spending will vary depending on state/income/amount of dependants.

 

[callgood]

Probably negativly. The rising cost of energy is like a tax. It must be paid. I pity the people in the North East who heat with fuel oil. This winter is going to be a bitch. Add the general rate of inflation, grossly understated for years by the government, and there you have it. (Yesterday they had the gall to report that "seasonally adjusted" the cost of gasoline declined. What a load of crap).

Of course there are individual exceptions. And where on the timeline you are. Older shooters may be more prone to having a collection that is more or less rounded out. Younger people may feel they need to buy before the election.

Personally, I am concentrating on spare parts (I buy monthly from a list I've developed for my firearms), magazines, and reloading components. I work from a budget, so the rising prices will effectively reduce my items purchased this year.

 

[Robert Hairless]

Makes sense. Working in the opposite direction, though, is the upcoming presidential election. From what I see here and elsewhere at least some people are trying to prepare for the installation of an anti-gun president and Congress that will make future purchases difficult if not nearly impossible. But then there's some belief that a favorable decision in Heller v DC is inevitable and it will make almost everything okay right away.

Every time we're almost ready to give up on gun shows, though, we're surprised. For the past year or so we saw dwindling attendance, fewer dealers, and the same old same old things for sale. Then the last two gun shows we attended were different. Lots of people, more dealers, and several interesting things we hadn't seen before.

Maybe gun shows are just cyclic in ways similar to the phenomena associated with global warming and global cooling? Still, what your dealer said does make sense.

 

[MMCSRET]

I see prices raising but I'm not seeing demand falling. I just bought a second home because of the pricing/interest situation. I'm retired and I see it as an opportunity to make more of a nest egg than the IRA's and CD's will provide. Besides it is in Montana mule deer and pheasant country.

 

[MachIVshooter]

I don't believe in the "recession" that we hear about so often. Personally, I think it's over-spending by the .gov and illegal practices by the mortgage company that got america into this current mess.

You do understand what a recession is, yes? Doesn't matter who's collective practices have weakened the dollar, just that it is weak on the international market.

Also understand that just because your income hasn't gone down doesn't mean you're unaffected. Let's say a family of four has an income that allowed for an extra $1,000 for whatever they wanted in 2006. Enter today, and suppose they were fortunate enough to keep their wages. If in 2006 they had a monthly budget of $300 for fuel, today it is well over $500. And they're grocery bill has increased substantially, say from $500 a month to $700. Utilities are up a good bit, too. So this family is easily droppping another $500+ per month than they were two years ago on the same income. Inflation has cut their spending money in half. Lot's of folks didn't have that margin, and are really suffering.

 

[jackstinson]

The President told me last week that we are not in a recession.
Who am I to argue?
Jack

 

[Dismantler]

I went to a show in NH in April. The lot was parked full, and I was driving in circles with others looking for a spot. There were at least 100 people lined up waiting to get in.

This was not in my home town, so I decided to leave, as I did not want to wait for a parking spot. It was one hour after the show opened, so I figured that many, like me, take two hours and go around a few times.

If the dealers did not make sales, it was because of their pricing, because the customers were there. (Some of these folks had to be serious buyers.)

I do not know how my local shops are doing.

I did ask ask a coin dealer that I sometimes use how his Christmas (2007) was. He said that he was down 1/3 from 2006.

 

[JesseL]

I see gun purchases declining, unless the economy gets so bad that we go from recession through depression and find ourselves on the cusp of a full on economic/social/governmental collapse, at which point I expect you'd see more gun acquisitions but I don't know how many of those would be purchases.

I really don't expect things to get that bad though.

 

[brighamr]

You do understand what a recession is, yes?

Yes I completely understand. The last 4 times our government said we were in a recession, people started stock piling food and quit spending money... which then caused a real recession.

Don't get me wrong, maybe I'm the only one in the country who hasn't felt the effects of our "down and out dollar", but my wages have increased as normal and I'm able to do as I please because I paid my debts off years ago.

The news keeps talking about how our country is going to have another great depression any minute now... I just don't believe it's that bad.

 

[Cyclimus]

According to the standard definition of a recession in economic terms, we have not been in one and likely won't enter one. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (loss). The last two quarters have seen growth of about 1% per quarter, so technically we're still a growing economy, thus disproving the recession panic.

On the flip side, yes times have been hard, the stock market is turbulent (has been my whole life), home sales are down (but this is cyclic, prices will begin to go up once they hit the bottom, which they MUST do according to every economic principle out there), and the dollar is weak (which is actually good for our manufacturing sector as it makes it cheaper for the rest of the world to afford our products/services.

So to address this question to guns, I think you'll see very little change as those that purchase guns will still do so, although they might not get the tricked out mall-ninja AR they want, they'll probably learn to build it instead to save a dime. Oh and the gun stores around these parts have actually had to increase their prices (good for them) because of increased demand - people clinging to their guns during hardship maybe? I don't know, I think there's a lot of elements at play and not one single element is the causal one for gun purchases in this economy.

 

[Soybomb]

I'll be checking out the local pawnshops more often to look for good deals from people who are feeling a crunch.

 

[3KillerBs]

There is no recession.

Recession means shrinkage, moving backwards.

Our economy has been growing, not shrinking. Growing more slowly than it had been, true, but growing nonetheless.

Moving forward more slowly, or even standing still for that matter, does not equal going backwards.

I strongly suggest the writings of Dr. Thomas Sowell on all things economic in general and in detecting politically motivated lies about things economic in particular.

 

[WeedWhacker]

Good thing we got rid of recessions - stagflation is so much better!

Obviously, the spike in costs of pretty much everything except houses will cause folks in my situation to spend less overall on non-necessities, though in my case, a larger portion of the "spending money" total will be diverted into the ammo fund than it would have otherwise.

The stuff isn't getting any cheaper.

 

[MachIVshooter]

There is no recession.

Recession means shrinkage, moving backwards.

Our economy has been growing, not shrinking. Growing more slowly than it had been, true, but growing nonetheless.

Moving forward more slowly, or even standing still for that matter, does not equal going backwards.

I strongly suggest the writings of Dr. Thomas Sowell on all things economic in general and in detecting politically motivated lies about things economic in particular.

Call it whatever you want, but the fact is that wages have not kept up with cost of living. Anyone who makes under $100k is hurting right now, having trouble absorbing the increased cost of fuel and the resulting increase in all other commodities.

I've been a wrench for 10 years, and I can tell you that we are seeing the effects of this economic slump industry wide. People are still fixing their cars, but prioritizing repairs and letting the little stuff go more and more. Routine maintenance and things like shocks/struts that are not 100% necessary to keep the vehicles running are not being done as much as in years past. As a result, my income as a flat rate (labor commission) technician is down about 20% from last year. What do you think that means to the guy operating the gun shop where I usually drop a couple grand every year?

Normally I would have taken my income tax refund and bought 3 grand worth of gun stuff. This year, I used it to get ahead on the bills a bit, not knowing if my month to month income will cover them reliably.

 

[Big Boomer]

Last year at this time, I had spent about $3,000 in firearms related expenses.

This year, $30 to date

 

[Zundfolge]

GDP went UP last quarter (and this quarter is likely going to be even better). Last time there was a DROP in GDP was 3rd quarter 2001, every single quarter since then has seen GDP growth so by the very definition of "recession" (two or more quarters of significant GDP decline) we're not in one so you're premise is flawed.

http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/gdp.htm



The "recession" and other economic "doom and gloom" is all a lie. The MSM is trying real darn hard to get a Democrat elected, that is all.

Here's another example of the lie at work: http://arewelumberjacks.blogspot.com/2008/04/little-perspective.html

The last gun show I visited back in April...

Ah, I didn't notice you said "gun show".

I believe in the last few years, through a combination of legislative attempts at "closing the gun show loophole" to the ATF hassling gun show goers to the explosion of sites like Gunbroker and GunsAmerica we're seeing the whole gun show concept dying out. Has nothing to do with the economy, has more to do with political pressures and competition from alternative markets.

 

[The Lone Haranguer]

I've been a wrench for 10 years, and I can tell you that we are seeing the effects of this economic slump industry wide. People are still fixing their cars, but prioritizing repairs and letting the little stuff go more and more. Routine maintenance and things like shocks/struts that are not 100% necessary to keep the vehicles running are not being done as much as in years past. As a result, my income as a flat rate (labor commission) technician is down about 20% from last year. What do you think that means to the guy operating the gun shop where I usually drop a couple grand every year?

In the same fix. (Actually worse, at the moment.) The country as a whole may not be in a recession, but when your job is affected it sure does a good imitation of it.

 

[catfish101]

The news can have people on that can say anything to make anything sound fine. It is very simple. Fuel is still going up. When the effects of the $4.50+ per gallon diesel hits the grocery stores is going to be pretty rough. It has just started.

I am afraid this countries on it's way to bad crash. Allot of people I know have already quit investing in 401s,457's and other things because they don't have it. That is going to have an ill effect on things.

It won't be long and allot of people will have ran out of credit card.

I am an optimistic person but common sense will tell you if fuel and other energy keeps going up the economy is going down.

 

[The Lone Haranguer]

At $3.50-ish a gallon for gasoline (actually some of the lowest gas prices in the country, I've heard), that affects the number of trips to the ranges 30 miles away.

 

[Zedicus]

At $3.50-ish a gallon for gasoline (actually some of the lowest gas prices in the country, I've heard), that affects the number of trips to the ranges 30 miles away.

Be thankful you aren't paying the $4.50 a gallon I already pay for diesel.....

 

[Aaryq]

Minimally,
I just got out of debt. I'll get what I can afford assuming that I've already set aside what I'm saving!

 

[loop]

I'm not writing it again.

 

[dmftoy1]

Be thankful you aren't paying the $4.50 a gallon I already pay for diesel.....

I hear ya . . . I haven't started my truck in 3 weeks because it was too painful to fill it. (Started riding the motorcycle everywhere)

That being said, the threat of an impending AWB did make me spend some of my bonus to get the M1A I've wanted for the last 10 years.

 

[Neo-Luddite]

We don't need any more mouths to feed--but spare parts and ammo-I'm buying as I can negotiate and justify such purchases with the boss.

I'm actually becoming worried in a larger economic sense--we haven't seen the bottom and the money is backed only by faith and belief.
It's not far from fiat money.