I've been away for a few days due to the holidays, so I apologize for coming in late and/or digging back a little.
Probably like most here, I've put a little effort into SHTF planning and consideration of possible scenerios. I never put a significant amount of thought into this topic prior to Hurricane Katrina, but after living through it and the months of aftermath, my interest increased and my perspectives changed. Because of that experience, I consider into my "planning" a level of situational and probablity awareness. Because of where I live, the absolutly most likely SHTF scenerio for me is a repeat of Katrina. A lot of my preparation follows that probability. Others will have very different higher-probability scenerios.
That said...
SHTF is a value-less term. It has been tossed around so liberally that anything you don't particuarly like is a "SHTF." I've seen topics on THR that use the term "SHTF" for everything ranging from car trouble on the Interstate to living in a post-apocalyptic world filled with roving bandits to the living dead craving our brains.
Obviously, there is a lot of middle-ground in between those usages. More than likely, "SHTF" for most of us is somewhere in that middle (IMO, car trouble on the Interstate isn't SHTF-- Call AAA.) In my mind, localized natural disasters or even civil unrest is a far more likely possibility.
Now that said...
We spend a lot of time considering what is the best "SHTF" firearm, caliber, etc. While there are some reasons that one particular firearm or caliber DOES make things a bit more effecient, convenient, or comfortable, these considerations do not matter NEAR as much as we give them credit for. They certainly don't deserve the amount of discussion that they get.
From my experience if you are in a prolonged or semi-prolonged SHTF, you have problems that a firearm won't fix. There are about 9,000 other needs you need to meet that will be far higher on the priority list than your choice of firearm platform. If those have not been considered and planned for, there is still a LOT to think about before firearm choices. Now, if those other issues have been addressed, it is probably a good idea to give some thought to platforms.
I'm not writing this to criticize anyone. I don't know anyone's level of preparedness and am in no position to criticize. What I am doing is attempting to bring a perspective and awareness to those that really do believe that SHTF preparedness begins and ends with the choice of a firearm.
Again, that said....
In most SHTF scenerios, you will not get to the point where you are hunting for food. In 8 weeks of no power or water in Katrina, I never had to go out and kill a deer. The reality is that infrastructure will normalize to a functional degree before you are killing your food in a vast majority of SHTF scenerios.
Of course, hunting may come into play in a TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) situation where we are all living like The Road Warrior. For the sake of discussion, I'll just say this: In that scenerio, your choice of firearm is FAR less important that the amount of ammunition you have stockpiled. Since you can assume that infrastructure will not be "normalizing" ever again, you better have as much ammunition as you anticipate you will need for the rest of your life-- and the lives of those that you leave behind. Frankly, however much ammunition you have is not enough for that scenerio-- not because you will be using it with more frequency-- but because it has become a non-renewable resource for you.
In a civil unrest situation, obviously a firearm whose operation was designed for battlefield conditions is probably better for ergonomics, reloading, reliability, etc. After all, they were designed with a degree of "unrest" in the assumptive equation.
On the topic of calibers, I'd have to say that it is FAR more important that you have an adequate supply of ammunition for whatever firearms you have than considering what caliber or firearm you have.
Let's face it. A 308, a 7.62x39, a .223 all have a lethality to them. In practically any scenerio I can envision, I can make any one of those calibers work. If I were hunting, my 308 will take a deer easily. So will my 7.62x39. If I am carrying a .223, I can still drop a deer with it if I had to. Now, 223 isn't a caliber I would normally hunt deer with but I concede that it would work fine if I had to.
Now, none of those calibers are all that great if your are hunting small game. I suppose I can envision the possiblity of making head shots on rabbits with a 308, but I think a .22 rimfire or shotgun is probably a tad better.
If hunting is your primary concern, anything would suffice to a degree. Certain calibers work better for different game, and accuracy is always a consideration. But you don't HAVE to have a certain platform to make it work. a LOT of deer have dropped to a 30-30 lever action, and will likely do so in the future. An AK is accurate enough for most shots and distances you'll shoot a deer. I know-- I use an AK in 7.62x39 as a "brush gun" for deer season, and I've taken them with it.
In a defensive situation, 308, 7.62x39, and .223 would all suffice.
I apologize that this has moved over a number of topics and has a rambling quality to it. Its early and I am still getting some coffee in me.
I suppose I'll end with this.
In a post-apocalyptic scenerio, ammuniton is your concern, forget about platform. Whatever you choose, get A LOT to feed it.
In a natural disaster, get something that is handy, and comfortable. Likely the amount of ammuition you have now will suffice.
In a civil unrest scenerio, battle-proven is always a good start in platforms. Ammuniton is more of a concern than in a natural disaster scenerio because of the probably of a greater frequency of shooting. (I base this on accounts of the 1992 LA riots from shopowners.)
Obviously, a person asking this question isn't creating a canned stockpile based specifically for one scenerio only-- but rather hoping for something that can funciton well in numbers of scenerios.
In that case, Battle-proven, fairly accurate, and reliable is the equation. Add in a deep supply of ammuition, and you are likely ready for a great number of "SHTF" scenerios-- regardless of how fanciful they may be.
Of course, a firearm is not the thing that will get you through MOST SHTF scenerios.
All the best.
-- John
For home defense of looters and pillagers, I trust my 1911 or M1 carbine.....for Zombies, I break out Kate, my sweet beautiful "U.S. Rifle Cal. 30 M1"....... affectionately known as the Garand
