Inflation and firearms prices

[vintovka]

Not sure if this is the right place but i think its on many forum members minds and affects our hobby. Was tasked with liquidating not only my own collection but that of my oldest friends. Now that he has recently passed the pressure to sell them off to pay his medical expenses has been substantially reduced. Among the remaining issues is whether to sell it all now or wait. Signs of serious inflation are clear. Real estate has gone ballistic and firearms and ammo seem to be following suit. Physical property now seems to heavily out weigh $ in the bank. Uncertainty (aka fear) of what the new regime may do or tax compounds the issue and is driving prices. I have what i need but investing in any more seems risky. What say you.

 

[wiscoaster]

Use a proven and basic investment principle called "dollar cost averaging" in reverse. Buying multiple small pieces over time averages the cost and you never end up buying everything at the top. If you sell the firearms slowly and individually over time you average your proceeds and never risk selling all before the prices go through the roof and you have no more to sell.

 

[jmorris]

Unlike electronics they likely won’t become extremely less valuable with age, even if they do go down, as long as they don’t become illegal. They may not increase in value as much as other investments but also won’t decrease in value as much as some either.

If I needed the money, I’d sell some, other than that I’ll let my friends help my heirs after they get the ones I have left for them.

I remember going to Mexico in the late ‘80’s and a magazine and a coke cost something like 2000 pesos. It would have been unfortunate to have a large stash of cash at that point in time.

 

[Steve S.]

If you cannot respond to a civil court summons for outstanding medical bills, then there is zero pressure.

 

[NuShootr]

I can tell you, for popular firearms, like 9mm pistols, the price is through the roof in my area. 40% higher than "normal". As are many rifles. I'm in the midst of starting the process of trying out various 9mm pistols to see which one is a good fit for me before buying, so for me there is no immediacy. I do hope, however, that the prices do come down some over the next six months. Almost as if the elites only want the elites to own firearms...

 

[Archie]

This isn't 'normal' inflation. The looming apprehension of what will transpire in the new administration is on many minds.
The stated intent of removing firearms from the public makes the long range value of firearms less appealing to those who seek to sell at some time. At the same time, demand is driving the prices of firearms up. At least for the present.
Real Estate is not my field. However, if the socialist agenda is followed - still too early to tell - owning real property will not be as desired as it has been. Not being a seer, I shall end my thoughts at that point.

 

[film495]

if you don't want them, sell them to someone who does. prices are high, so you'll get a good price. guessing or speculating on future value is just that, they are worth quite a lot now though, for sure.

 

[FROGO207]

What are you going to do with the money? I could sell my Mini 14 SS ranch rifle that I paid $350 for and substantially profit today. New laws might make it imposible to replace it at all. Think I'll keep it for now. If you have no pressing need they will probably gain value at least for the next 4 years or so.

 

[Armored farmer]

prices are high now, waiting might be smart, but that is speculation.
Bird in the hand. I am tasked with marketing grain for my some of my older landowners. One "oh crap" over rides a dozen "attaboys".....despite your best intentions, you can't predict stoopid politics. All of the bad ideas from the last 200yrs have originated on the left, and they're in charge now.

 

[SamT1]

Keep what you need. Try to condense your variety of calibers.

Semi autos are through the roof. I bet the AR15 style might have some more appreciation to do. I’d bet we’re top of the market now unless there is some currency crash for most things.
If you have some things you want to buy now with the cash I would sell out and buy what you want. I would not want to be sitting on a safe full of cash today.
I have been selling off calibers and buying duplicates or upgrading optics and such on a core few calibers since 2012. Seems to be paying dividends today.
I liquified some assets into cash after the election. I bought stuff I needed and believed would go way up (mostly building materials) on a 0% offer on a credit card. Cash is sitting there to pay it off, but figured I wanted some on hand and this way I have no risk if the dollar crashes since its technically already spent.

I think now is the time to inventory loading supplies and sell/trade the stuff that doesn’t fit. Odds are 3 years from now we may return to normal, but all bets are off with this administration. The days of them having a secret agenda to disarm are long gone. It’s front and center now, just blocked from view by COVID and taking the pants and dress signs off bathrooms.

 

[SamT1]

prices are high now, waiting might be smart, but that is speculation.
Bird in the hand. I am tasked with marketing grain for my some of my older landowners. One "oh crap" over rides a dozen "attaboys".....despite your best intentions, you can't predict stoopid politics. All of the bad ideas from the last 200yrs have originated on the left, and they're in charge now.

I’m hearing rumors of $7 wheat! I reduced cattle numbers on a patch i was grazing in the dirt. A little math on the $7 wheat made those cows I thought were skinny look pretty fat.

 

[Mosin77]

I think it’s a bubble of sorts. Government handout money + time stuck at home due to COVID-19 fears/restrictions + some very real apprehension about what may transpire in terms of new restrictions on gun and ammo purchasing mean most firearm enthusiasts and collectors are taking the opportunity -right now- to buy anything they see that they’ve remotely been interested in one day adding to the collection. This has caused most guns to increase noticeably in price. The social unrest and shortages last year didn’t help, especially for modern self defense type stuff, and I think a lot of folks also figured that if they couldn’t buy a Glock or AR-15 or 12 gauge pump right now, they may as well grab that Winchester 94 or milsurp since those -were- available, thus carrying over the panic into more run of the mill guns too. Same reason why 22 disappeared quickly after Sandy Hook and now as well. Just a residual effect of the threat to more scary-sounding firearms or calibers.

Whether the bubble will burst dramatically, or demand will just slow down and prices will soften somewhat? I have no idea. At some point though, it has to end. At the end of the day an old relic rifle with obscure historical connections is only intrinsically interesting to a certain small subset of shooters, so I’d expect things to calm eventually, probably in the inverse order to inflation. BP repro guns will reappear first, then milsurps in obscure calibers (and maybe their ammo especially if it’s PPU/foreign), then more pedestrian guns, then the optimized self defense and carry guns. If a ban happens, it’ll be unfortunate but probably, hopefully, realistically, a defanged thing compared to the vitriolic rhetoric the dems used to energize their most radical base to get them motivated to vote.

The big driver right now is uncertainty and fear. Take that away, and the market will respond accordingly. If you’re thinking of selling now is a great time.

 

[BigAlShooter]

I'd say were bound for high inflation ahead. We just borrowed almost 2 trillion for the 2 stimulus packages. Now, Biden is wanting another 1.9 trillion. I think all that printing money will cause inflation, thus, firearms will go up. If you look back about 15 years, firearms haven't really gone up that much (well, up until recently). I think most manufacturers have already set their prices higher this year, not just due to the recent demand, but because their overhead and material costs have gone up.

 

[vintovka]

If i read all of the above correctly durable material goods (including guns and ammo) are worth more than cash. Its exactly my point and greatest concern. Forgot to add some folks in So Cal. are saying gangs have moved from selling drugs like pot to new markets like guns and ammo on blackmarket.

 

[Waveski]

Prices are up. Speculation about future restrictive legislation and/or Executive Orders is rampant.

If you intend to sell guns sometime in the foreseeable future - sell NOW.

Addendum : Over the past 6-7 months I sold a number of firearms to raise cash for another purpose. I did not time it to the market ; it simply happened that way based on my needs.
The return I got was significant. Washed away any seller's remorse.

 

[tarosean]

Right now we are not seeing inflation driven prices, we are in a panic driven bubble. If you want to liquidate, now would be the time as it will eventually pop and return to normal.

 

[Izzy77]

Did a quick search on DuckDuckGo ( dot com) and found this:

https://www.growingfamilybenefits.com/medical-debt-ever-go-away/

It really depends on the state and who was the person ( if any) who signed the paperwork to pay the debt ( wife, children, etc.)

If the debt could still be collected from your friends family, I would say it's prudent to help settle that debt.

As for your own property I can not advise, too many possibilities at the moment.

 

[patmccoy]

Was tasked with liquidating not only my own collection but that of my oldest friends. Now that he has recently passed the pressure to sell them off to pay his medical expenses has been substantially reduced.

With your friend's recent death, everything may have changed. You need to see if you are the executor of his will, or if he died without a will (intestate) who the court will name to handle the legal ramifications of disposing of property. In either case, there is usually a time limit on wrapping up the estate (which will constrain your ability to hold the guns).

 

[Bill M.]

If it is the kind of gun that people want, like handguns, sell now for sure. If it is collectibles then probably sell now. As always, it is a guessing game. My tendency would be to set prices, advertise, and sell anything I could live with the offer for. My guess that our ability to buy and sell guns legally is going to get seriously trashed within a few years and maybe sooner.

I would be sure to keep anything that I thought I was ever going to want again though.

 

[Jimbo80]

Guns generally have never been a good investment against inflation especially when purchased at retail. I have a lot of guns but only a very few that have appreciated over the years compared to other investments. The panic we're seeing today is a result of politics and 7 million new gun owners has increased the value of all guns. If (and nowadays it's a big if) things go back to normal prices will settle down and the $500 Shields will be back to being tough to sell at $299. Now would be a very good time to take profit on common guns especially if finances are an issue. If there is a mandatory buy back you can bet they won't be paying retail plus so it's up to you decide how much risk you want to take.

 

[George P]

Why are assuming that in the future you will be allowed to own the guns in question or be able to easily sell them?

 

[Waveski]

I don’t think the OP solicited advice on liability for medical expenses.

 

[huntsman]

For the better part of my life I viewed my firearms as having an intrinsic value no matter how meager the collection was.

now I’m not sure what the future holds or for that matter what my guns are “worth” but some still have intrinsic value at least to me.

If for some reason I had to liquidate it’ll be through an auction house and I’ll take what I get and be thankful, with no concerns about what something was worth because the future looks precarious at best.

 

[Mosin77]

That $29.99 in 1960 or $49.99 in 1975 or $79.99 in 1995 sounds cheap until you calculate inflation and look at real purchasing power/wages. Then you realize that the gun that’s now worth $400 (pre-covid) or $550 (crazy covid price) hasn’t necessarily appreciated all that much. Some, perhaps. But certainly not enough to be considered much of an “investment,” unless maybe an investment in your enjoyment of a hobby or a hedge against future unavailability.

 

[Rubone]

If i read all of the above correctly durable material goods (including guns and ammo) are worth more than cash. Its exactly my point and greatest concern. Forgot to add some folks in So Cal. are saying gangs have moved from selling drugs like pot to new markets like guns and ammo on blackmarket.

If there are bills passed to limit/control/eliminate gun sales the "Black Market" will be the biggest ever known.....