Interesting take on military S&T in the modern environment

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Preacherman

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From the Wall Street Journal ( http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110008674 ):

The Tribal Way of War

Forget Clausewitz: Nations now fight clans driven by pride, vengeance and martial religiosity.

BY ROBERT D. KAPLAN
Wednesday, July 19, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

While the U.S. spends billions of dollars on sophisticated defense systems, the dime-a-dozen kidnapper and suicide bomber have emerged as the most strategic weapons of war. While we tie ourselves in legal knots over war's acceptable parameters, international law has increasingly less bearing on those whom we fight. And while our commanders declare "force protection" as their highest priority, enemy commanders declare the need for more martyrs. It seems that the more advanced we become, the more at a disadvantage we are in the 21st-century battlefield.

In "Insurgents, Terrorists, and Militias," Richard H. Shultz Jr. and Andrea J. Dew, both of Tufts's Fletcher School, have produced a wise and cogent briefing book about who our enemies are and how to anticipate their field tactics. The problem, they state early on, is that the Pentagon--the product of a rational, science-based Western culture--relies on objective quantification for its analysis. But what happens, the authors ask, if there is nothing to quantify? What happens if the enemy is merely an organic part of the landscape, revealing its features only at the moment of attack? Well, then all we can do is study these "idiosyncratic" human landscapes and use anthropology to improve our intelligence assessments.

Forget Karl von Clausewitz's dictum that war is a last resort and circumscribed by the methodical actions and requirements of a state and its army. Forget Hugo Grotius's notion that war should be circumscribed by a law of nations. As the authors remind us, paraphrasing the anthropologist Harry Turney-High: "Tribal and clan chieftains did not employ war as a cold-blooded and calculated policy instrument. . . . Rather, it was fought for a host of social-psychological purposes and desires, which included . . . honor, glory, revenge, vengeance, and vendetta." With such motives, torture and beheadings become part of the normal ritual of war.

Because Mr. Shultz and Ms. Dew take tribes seriously, they don't stereotype them. The whole point of this book is that, because each tribal culture is unique, each will fight in its own way; it is a matter of knowing what a culture is truly capable of once it feels itself threatened. Thus the heart of the book is case studies.

The Somali way of war--so startling to U.S. Army Rangers in Mogadishu in 1993--emerged from Somalia's late-19th-century Dervish movement, on which the country's top warlord, Mohammed Farah Aidid, based his strategy. What the West viewed as fanaticism was merely the Somali proclivity for judging a man's character by his religious conviction and his physical ability to fight without limits. In the Somali worldview, our aversion to killing women and children was a weakness that could be exploited by using noncombatants as human shields. Clearly, the task of anticipating the enemy's tactics requires thinking that goes beyond Western moral categories.

There is no better example of how traditional warrior cultures hold fast in the face of globalization than Chechnya, where cowardice is among the worst of transgressions and a dagger the most prized material item. There is in Chechnya, too, as the authors note, the Sufi proclivity for asceticism and mysticism: the former providing the mental discipline for overcoming physical hardships and the latter for sustaining morale. Furthermore, the Chechens' decentralized, clan-based structure--and their tradition of raiding--help to determine their guerrilla style, which has resulted in lethal hit-and-run tactics by small units on large, conventional Russian forces in the "urban canyons" of Grozny.

It's all in the local history. As one Afghan elder said in the early 1800s: "We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood," but "we will never be content with a master." And so, in the late 1900s, an Afghan mujahedeen commander explained why the Soviet Union lost a war: His men intended to fight to the last man, while the Russians didn't.

As for Iraq, the authors write: "Things could have turned out differently. . . . The traditional Iraqi way of war, and how Iraq fits into the larger global jihad, could have been deduced by U.S. planners" for the sake of a better military outcome. Saddam expanded his military machine by tribalizing it. Rather than eliminate Sunni clan networks, he incorporated them into his bureaucratic system of control. Thus if his army ever disintegrated, the result would be a congeries of Bedouin-like raiding parties, each with a tight social network, reprimitivized for the urban jungle.

Our progressive global culture--with its emphasis on convenience and instant gratification--finds it difficult to cope with such warriors, for whom war is a first resort rather than a last one. And what if a warrior takes command of a large and modernizing nation-state, as Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has done? We are accustomed to adversarial states with rational goals, like China. In the long run, China may constitute a greater threat to American world leadership than Iran. Yet China is a traditional and, therefore, legitimate power. We will have a serious military competition with the Chinese, but only through miscalculation would we ever fight them. Yet the darkest cloud on the 21st-century horizon is big states whose leaders may simply like to fight. Their reasons are tied up with pride, vengeance and martial religiosity and cannot be gratified through negotiations.

What then should we do? The authors quote Sun Tzu, the fourth-century B.C. Chinese theorist of war: "Know your enemy." This book is a good place to start.
 
What the West viewed as fanaticism was merely the Somali proclivity for judging a man's character by his religious conviction and his physical ability to fight without limits. In the Somali worldview, our aversion to killing women and children was a weakness that could be exploited by using noncombatants as human shields. Clearly, the task of anticipating the enemy's tactics requires thinking that goes beyond Western moral categories.

Well... the United States does stand for more than its own survival.
Some of those very principles that are exploited by your opponents
are PRECISELY what makes America better than much of the rest of world.

You don't just sacrifice freedoms in exchange for safety/comfort,
and principles aren't exactly disposable either.



JM2sentimos,
horge
 
Interesting and believable.

The ideas presented could provide a good basis for what's behind the type of assymetric conflicts we see ourselves tangled up in.
 
Excellent post - I think it ties in with the criticism that we are always looking for a best hypersonic guided weapon that will decapitate a country's leadership. Or we want a small number of very expensive planes or ships.

Those are attractive to the techowarrior culture and really tangential to the battles we will fight in the future.

Also, our focus on collateral damage leads us to develop such weapons on the mistaken belief that we can find the one leader or enemy gadget and take out an entire country with a precision strike that harms few.

However, such enemies as described live for the collateral damage. It is the lack of cognitive flexibility in our current leaders that will cause us much pain. It is also the lack of going to the American people and saying that will have to sacrifice lives that lead us to fight so ineffectively to accomplish our goals. It's been known for a long time that we are terribly casuality aversive. No one wants to see folks die but when the focus is to avoid casuality figures rather than win - we see what we have today.
 
hit the nail on the head!

our "modern sensitivities" are ill suited for this kind of conflict.

I'm not sure if our "modern sensitivities" can survive in the 21st century.

People credit the early Greeks as having great influence on western culture.

I've recently read a little bit about Greek history......and they were pretty darn brutal in how they dealt with their adversaries (even those from neighboring Greek city states). Kill all the adult men and take the women and children as slaves, seems to have been the drill.

I personally think this country is going to have to choose between isolationism and down right nasty, brutal warfighting.

I appreciate well the merits of fighting our adversaries in their back yard instead of our own. But I'm struggling with questions about whether these fights are worth it.

If we could learn to live within the provision of our own resources, we could leave the Chinese to fight the "oil wars".

Unfortunately, I believe the Islamo-fascist are totally committed to the ultimate goal of uniting the world under their "ism"....even more so than the Marxist were committed to uniting it under their's. This makes the conflict inevitable, and retreating today leaves us to fight a stronger more modernly armed adversary tomorrow.....that while we grow more fragmented and unwilling to fight for anything within.
 
Neitzsche seems appropriate: "When fighting monsters one must take care not to himself become a monster."

And let me be the first to say -- armchair analysis of threats to American citizens isn't comforting, but it's much more comfortable than actually fighting them.
 
The Arabs never really suffered a defeat in the last 60 years. When they are one step away from annihilation, a ceasefire is always called, a la Desert Storm or the Yom Kippur War. They lose land to Israel and get it back in peace accords. They fight disguised as civilians and behind civilians, but are never summarily shot as spies or saboteurs when caught out of uniform. They never suffer wholescale bombing of cities such as Europe and Japan did during World War II. They never pay reparations, and we are scared to death of offending the ones we wish to kill, hiding our chaplain's crosses and female soldiers lest they offend people who already despise us. Their mosques and imans and ayatollahs preach and pray for violence and destruction that will never touch them in their protected status.

So why not fight a war that is relatively painless? Yes, you lose a lot of young men, but they had no jobs, no education, no skills, and no future. They are a liability to the status quo when alive and during peacetime, they are an asset as martyrs and would be martyrs during war.

Robert E. Lee said after the battle of Fredericksburg that it is a good thing that war is so terrible, lest mankind become too fond of it. That's the trouble, I believe. we are shielding our enemies from that terribleness, and they have become too fond of war.
 
I guess you could call it "armchair", but it looks more like "after action", to me.

It's all well and good to worry about monstrous, but when you're talking about surviving when dealing with folks who won't negotiate in any sort of good faith, how you do it is how you do it, whatever it takes. You can always give up and quit, of course.

Art
 
My dad was a young boy living in Holland during WWII.

I asked him once why didn't the Dutch put up more resistance to the Germans when they were occupied. I knew us Americans would get out our rifles and shoot down invaders at every corner. He gave me two reasons.

One. All firearms were registerred in the Netherlands and one of the first things the Germans did was get those records and go door to door confiscating firearms. Being young I asked well, couldn't you just say you didn't have them anymore? If you said you didn't have them you were beaten, the house was ransacked and you (adult males) were most likely taken away. So people did not hide their weapons. Also, hunting is not as avilable in a small country like the Netherlands vs. the USA so less people had firearms.

Two. If a German solder was found killed and the Germans thought the citizens, reistance, did it they orderred everyone out of there houses, lined them up in the street, picked out about a hundred and immediatly killed them. No appeals, threats or bullxxxt. My Dad said the people didn't want to resist because of this. This also meant the resistance did not use their countrymen as shields as is happening in Iraq.

Now, I think the terrorists in Iraq wouldn't care if the citizens were lined up and shot because I don't believe most are Iraqies. This appears to be a Sunni vs. Shiite (some of which may be Irq) along with terrorists killing each other and civilians.

I do not advocate the USA being as brutal as the Nazis were and in the case of Iraq I don't think it would achieve the result.

added: also notice that the authority (whoever that may be) in Iraq doesn't seem to be disarming anyone! Having a firearm meant you were a spy and immediatly killed by Nazi's but in Iraq they let everyone in the war zone have a rifle?

P.S. I AM NOT advocating Naziism (whatever) or their methods just making a comparison.
 
Ways of war

The American army has to relearn in each war the lessons learned long ago when fighting the American Indians particularly the Sioux and Apaches and in the Phillipines against the Moros.Fixed fighting forces against fluid irregular forces is very difficult but can be done if there is the political will to do so
 
The Arabs never really suffered a defeat in the last 60 years. When they are one step away from annihilation, a ceasefire is always called, a la Desert Storm or the Yom Kippur War. They lose land to Israel and get it back in peace accords. They fight disguised as civilians and behind civilians, but are never summarily shot as spies or saboteurs when caught out of uniform. They never suffer wholescale bombing of cities such as Europe and Japan did during World War II. They never pay reparations, and we are scared to death of offending the ones we wish to kill, hiding our chaplain's crosses and female soldiers lest they offend people who already despise us. Their mosques and imans and ayatollahs preach and pray for violence and destruction that will never touch them in their protected status.

So why not fight a war that is relatively painless? Yes, you lose a lot of young men, but they had no jobs, no education, no skills, and no future. They are a liability to the status quo when alive and during peacetime, they are an asset as martyrs and would be martyrs during war.

Robert E. Lee said after the battle of Fredericksburg that it is a good thing that war is so terrible, lest mankind become too fond of it. That's the trouble, I believe. we are shielding our enemies from that terribleness, and they have become too fond of war.

I have to agree.

Yet we have, through technology developed the means by which we can destroy a single house holding our enemies from an untouchable distance, and to kill an individual enemy as he walks out his door in the morning from a distance that they cannot efectivly respond. Our American values, the morals that say that every individual must be judged only by what they have done, demand that we minimize the impact on "innocents".

I think that we would be losing too much of ourselves if we took the "easy" path and ignnored those morals.

But assume we decided to anyway. Think what the result would be of "rolling thunder" type bombing runs over an occupied city in the middle east. The death toll, with modern "dumb" bombs (not even considering nukes) backed by modern delivery systems would approach 100%. Only those who recieved advance notice and reached deep bunckers would survive. Would the first run stop insurgent attacks or rogue states? NO. Nor would the second, or third, or fourth. They might pacify a local area, at least until insurgents from elswhere filtered in, but the counrties in the area whould not attempt to find a way to reign in thie extremists in thier midsts until it bacame obvious that they would ALL die if they didn't.

Would this country survive with the blood of several million innocents on it's hands? Whould we want it to?

We will win this, but it won't be quick. You will see hand wringing from the left, and then from the center before it's over. You will see methods used to keep our soldiers out of harms way that wouldn't have been seriously considered before 9-11. The "never ending" supply of martyrs will begin to dry up when they begin losing 40, 50 or 100 to every one "kill" the insurgents make, and the only "kills" the insurgents ever make become robots and remote aircraft.
 
In the long run, China may constitute a greater threat to American world leadership than Iran. Yet China is a traditional and, therefore, legitimate power. We will have a serious military competition with the Chinese, but only through miscalculation would we ever fight them. Yet the darkest cloud on the 21st-century horizon is big states whose leaders may simply like to fight. Their reasons are tied up with pride, vengeance and martial religiosity and cannot be gratified through negotiations.

What then should we do? The authors quote Sun Tzu, the fourth-century B.C. Chinese theorist of war: "Know your enemy."


in the long run, as china realises competitiveness in the world market, it's people are educated. in education, they become more like us. their culture is changed.

uneducated people can be easily manipulated. educated people cannot. educated people cannot be convinced that those of another culture are deserving of disrespect and cruelty.

you note that fanatics are from uneducated cultures, in the main. the answer to ending fanaticism, then, is increasing education. education comes in many forms.

as an american in china, i educate as often as possible. each person i meet, who has not yet spent time with an american, bases their impression on contact with me. a responsibility i should take seriously.

had 5 minutes with the prime minister of china on sunday, and a few hours with a young business translator on tuesday. easy to see which was more affected. in this way, i have a slightly different take on "know your enemy". i know a lot of them, and they know me.
 
They think we want to change them to be like us. Whether that is true or not it is not going to happen. That is no more liikely than us changing to be like them.

Our battle field superiority is overwhelming. Why build bases after stomping them into the dirt? We should do what we do best and then get the heck out of there. Let them rebuild and reorganize themselves. If they don't get it right then we go back and do it again. Let them change themselves with that hanging over their heads. Eventually they are bound to figure out how to stop antagonizing us.
 
What Horge said.

And there continues, apparently, the promotion of the idea that all those resisting us in this "war" are card carrying members of the various "terrorist" organizations that dot the lanscape. Sort like saying that all german soldiers during WW2 were Nazis.

There are plenty of people all over the world who will fight for their home soil, are not going to tolerate a foreign foreign army invading and occupying their country, who do not recognize that global criminal cartel called the "United Nations", and couldn't care less about what the "G8" have planned for the rest of the world - and on which country they bestow the knighthood of nuclear power and which they do not. And as more of their sons, daughters, mothers, fathers and grandparents get killed in the crossfire, more of them will rise up and resist us to the bitter end.

SSN Vet
hit the nail on the head!

our "modern sensitivities" are ill suited for this kind of conflict.

I'm not sure if our "modern sensitivities" can survive in the 21st century
Our "modern sensitivities" are not "modern" at all. They are as old as, and integral to, civilization and civilized culture.

--------------------------------------------
http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org
 
It all boils down to state versus non-state actors for the most part. The ideas have been discussed formally since 1989, characterized as fourth- generation warfare- see the numerous articles at http://www.d-n-i.net/second_level/fourth_generation_warfare.htm and http://www.d-n-i.net/second_level/4gw_continued.htm .

The seminal article appeared in _Marine Corps Gazette_ and is linked at http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/4th_gen_war_gazette.htm .

The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation

William S. Lind, Colonel Keith Nightengale (USA),
Captain John F. Schmitt (USMC), Colonel Joseph W. Sutton (USA),
and Lieutenant Colonel Gary I. Wilson (USMCR)

Marine Corps Gazette
October 1989, Pages 22-26

The peacetime soldier's principal task is to prepare effectively for the next war. In order to do so, he must anticipate what the next war will be like. This is a difficult task that gets continuously more difficult. German Gen Franz Uhle-Wettler writes:

"At an earlier time, a commander could be certain that a future war would resemble past and present ones. This enabled him to analyze appropriate tactics from past and present. The troop commander of today no longer has this possibility. He knows only that whoever fails to adapt the experiences of the last war will surely lose the next one."

The Central Question

If we look at the development of warfare in the modern era, we see three distinct generations. In the United States, the Army and the Marine Corps are now coming to grips with the change to the third generation. This transition is entirely for the good. However, third generation warfare was conceptually developed by the German offensive in the spring of 1918. It is now more than 70 years old. This suggests some interesting questions: Is it not about time for a fourth generation to appear? If so, what might it look like? These questions are of central importance. Whoever is first to recognize, understand, and implement a generational change can gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, a nation that is slow to adapt to generational change opens itself to catastrophic defeat.

Our purpose here is less to answer these questions than to pose them. Nonetheless, we will offer some tentative answers. To begin to see what these might be, we need to put the questions into historical context.

Three Generations of Warfare

While military development is generally a continuous evolutionary process, the modern era has witnessed three watersheds in which change has been dialectically qualitative. Consequently, modern military development comprises three distinct generations.

First generation warfare reflects tactics of the era of the smoothbore musket, the tactics of line and column. These tactics were developed partially in response to technological factors — the line maximized firepower, rigid drill was necessary to generate a high rate of fire, etc.— and partially in response to social conditions and ideas, e.g., the columns of the French revolutionary armies reflected both the élan of the revolution and the low training levels of conscripted troops. Although rendered obsolete with the replacement of the smoothbore by the rifled musket, vestiges of first generation tactics survive today, especially in a frequently encountered desire for linearity on the battlefield. Operational art in the first generation did not exist as a concept although it was practiced by individual commanders, most prominently Napoleon.

Second generation warfare was a response to the rifled musket, breechloaders, barbed wire, the machinegun, and indirect fire. Tactics were based on fire and movement, and they remained essentially linear. The defense still attempted to prevent all penetrations, and in the attack a laterally dispersed line advanced by rushes in small groups. Perhaps the principal change from first generation tactics was heavy reliance on indirect fire; second generation tactics were summed up in the French maxim, "the artillery conquers, the infantry occupies." Massed firepower replaced massed manpower. Second generation tactics remained the basis of U.S. doctrine until the 1980s, and they are still practiced by most American units in the field.

While ideas played a role in the development of second generation tactics (particularly the idea of lateral dispersion), technology was the principal driver of change. Technology manifested itself both qualitatively, in such things as heavier artillery and bombing aircraft, and quantitatively, in the ability of an industrialized economy to fight a battle of materiel (Materialschlacht).

The second generation saw the formal recognition and adoption of the operational art, initially by the Prussian army. Again, both ideas and technology drove the change. The ideas sprang largely from Prussian studies of Napoleon's campaigns. Technological factors included von Moltke's realization that modern tactical firepower mandated battles of encirclement and the desire to exploit the capabilities of the railway and the telegraph.

Third generation warfare was also a response to the increase in battlefield firepower. However, the driving force was primarily ideas. Aware they could not prevail in a contest of materiel because of their weaker industrial base in World War I, the Germans developed radically new tactics. Based on maneuver rather than attrition, third generation tactics were the first truly nonlinear tactics. The attack relied on infiltration to bypass and collapse the enemy's combat forces rather than seeking to close with and destroy them. The defense was in depth and often invited penetration, which set the enemy up for a counterattack.

While the basic concepts of third generation tactics were in place by the end of 1918, the addition of a new technological element-tanks-brought about a major shift at the operational level in World War II. That shift was blitzkrieg. In the blitzkrieg, the basis of the operational art shifted from place (as in Liddell-Hart's indirect approach) to time. This shift was explicitly recognized only recently in the work of retired Air Force Col John Boyd and his "OODA (observation- orientation- decision- action) theory."

Thus we see two major catalysts for change in previous generational shifts: technology and ideas. What perspective do we gain from these earlier shifts as we look toward a potential fourth generation of warfare?

Elements That Carry Over

Earlier generational shifts, especially the shift from the second to the third generation, were marked by growing emphasis on several central ideas. Four of these seem likely to carry over into the fourth generation, and indeed to expand their influence.

The first is mission orders. Each generational change has been marked by greater dispersion on the battlefield. The fourth generation battlefield is likely to include the whole of the enemy's society. Such dispersion, coupled with what seems likely to be increased importance for actions by very small groups of combatants, will require even the lowest level to operate flexibly on the basis of the commander's intent.

Second is decreasing dependence on centralized logistics. Dispersion, coupled with increased value placed on tempo, will require a high degree of ability to live off the land and the enemy.

Third is more emphasis on maneuver. Mass, of men or fire power, will no longer be an overwhelming factor. In fact, mass may become a disadvantage as it will be easy to target. Small, highly maneuverable, agile forces will tend to dominate.

Fourth is a goal of collapsing the enemy internally rather than physically destroying him. Targets will include such things as the population's support for the war and the enemy's culture. Correct identification of enemy strategic centers of gravity will be highly important.

In broad terms, fourth generation warfare seems likely to be widely dispersed and largely undefined; the distinction between war and peace will be blurred to the vanishing point. It will be nonlinear, possibly to the point of having no definable battlefields or fronts. The distinction between "civilian" and "military" may disappear. Actions will occur concurrently throughout all participants' depth, including their society as a cultural, not just a physical, entity. Major military facilities, such as airfields, fixed communications sites, and large headquarters will become rarities because of their vulnerability; the same may be true of civilian equivalents, such as seats of government, power plants, and industrial sites (including knowledge as well as manufacturing industries). Success will depend heavily on effectiveness in joint operations as lines between responsibility and mission become very blurred. Again, all these elements are present in third generation warfare; fourth generation will merely accentuate them.

Potential Technology-Driven Fourth Generation

If we combine the above general characteristics of fourth generation warfare with new technology, we see one possible outline of the new generation. For example, directed energy may permit small elements to destroy targets they could not attack with conventional energy weapons. Directed energy may permit the achievement of EMP (electromagnetic pulse) effects without a nuclear blast. Research in superconductivity suggests the possibility of storing and using large quantities of energy in very small packages. Technologically, it is possible that a very few soldiers could have the same battlefield effect as a current brigade.

The growth of robotics, remotely piloted vehicles, low probability of intercept communications, and artificial intelligence may offer a potential for radically altered tactics. In turn, growing dependence on such technology may open the door to new vulnerabilities, such as the vulnerability to computer viruses.

Small, highly mobile elements composed of very intelligent soldiers armed with high technology weapons may range over wide areas seeking critical targets. Targets may be more in the civilian than the military sector. Front-rear terms will be replaced with targeted-untargeted. This may in turn radically alter the way in which military Services are organized and structured.

Units will combine reconnaissance and strike functions. Remote, "smart" assets with preprogrammed artificial intelligence may play a key role. Concurrently, the greatest defensive strengths may be the ability to hide from and spoof these assets.

The tactical and strategic levels will blend as the opponent's political infrastructure and civilian society become battlefield targets. It will be critically important to isolate the enemy from one's own homeland because a small number of people will be able to render great damage in a very short time.

Leaders will have to be masters of both the art of war and technology, a difficult combination as two different mindsets are involved. Primary challenges facing commanders at all levels will include target selection (which will be a political and cultural, not just a military, decision), the ability to concentrate suddenly from very wide dispersion, and selection of subordinates who can manage the challenge of minimal or no supervision in a rapidly changing environment. A major challenge will be handling the tremendous potential information overload without losing sight of the operational and strategic objectives.

Psychological operations may become the dominant operational and strategic weapon in the form of media/information intervention. Logic bombs and computer viruses, including latent viruses, may be used to disrupt civilian as well as military operations. Fourth generation adversaries will be adept at manipulating the media to alter domestic and world opinion to the point where skillful use of psychological operations will sometimes preclude the commitment of combat forces. A major target will be the enemy population's support of its government and the war. Television news may become a more powerful operational weapon than armored divisions.

This kind of high-technology fourth generation warfare may carry in it the seeds of nuclear destruction. Its effectiveness could rapidly eliminate the ability of a nuclear-armed opponent to wage war conventionally. Destruction or disruption of vital industrial capacities, political infrastructure, and social fabric, coupled with sudden shifts in the balance of power and concomitant emotions, could easily lead to escalation to nuclear weapons. This risk may deter fourth generation warfare among nuclear armed powers just as it deters major conventional warfare among them today.

A major caveat must be placed on the possibility of a technologically driven fourth generation, at least in the American context Even if the technological state of the art permits a high-technology fourth generation and this is not clearly the case — the technology itself must be translated into weapons that are effective in actual combat. At present, our research, development, and procurement process has great difficulty making this transition. It often produces weapons that incorporate high technology irrelevant in combat or too complex to work in the chaos of combat. Too many so-called "smart" weapons provide examples; in combat they are easy to counter, fail of their own complexity, or make impossible demands on their operators. The current American research, development, and procurement process may simply not be able to make the transition to a militarily effective fourth generation of weapons.

A Potential Idea-Driven Fourth Generation

Technology was the primary driver of the second generation of warfare; ideas were the primary driver of the third. An idea-based fourth generation is also conceivable.

For about the last 500 years, the West has defined warfare. For a military to be effective it generally had to follow Western models. Because the West's strength is technology, it may tend to conceive of a fourth generation in technological terms.

However, the West no longer dominates the world. A fourth generation may emerge from non-Western cultural traditions, such as Islamic or Asiatic traditions. The fact that some non-Western areas, such as the Islamic world, are not strong in technology may lead them to develop a fourth generation through ideas rather than technology.

The genesis of an idea-based fourth generation may be visible in terrorism. This is not to say that terrorism is fourth generation warfare, but rather that elements of it may be signs pointing toward a fourth generation.

Some elements in terrorism appear to reflect the previously noted "carryovers" from third generation warfare. The more successful terrorists appear to operate on broad mission orders that carry down to the level of the individual terrorist. The 'battlefield" is highly dispersed and includes the whole of the enemy's society. The terrorist lives almost completely off the land and the enemy. Terrorism is very much a matter of maneuver: the terrorist's firepower is small, and where and when he applies it is critical.

Two additional carryovers must be noted as they may be useful "signposts" pointing toward the fourth generation. The first is a component of collapsing the enemy. It is a shift in focus from the enemy's front to his rear. Terrorism must seek to collapse the enemy from within as it has little capability (at least at present) to inflict widespread destruction. First generation warfare focused tactically and operationally (when operational art was practiced) on the enemy's front, his combat forces. Second generation warfare remained frontal tactically, but at least in Prussian practice it focused operationally on the enemy's rear through the emphasis on encirclement The third generation shifted the tactical as well as the operational focus to the enemy's rear. Terrorism takes this a major step further. It attempts to bypass the enemy's military entirely and strike directly at his homeland at civilian targets. Ideally, the enemy's military is simply irrelevant to the terrorist.

The second signpost is the way terrorism seeks to use the enemy's strength against him This "judo" concept of warfare begins to manifest itself in the second generation, in the campaign and battle of encirclement. The enemy's fortresses, such as Metz and Sedan, became fatal traps. It was pushed further in the third generation where, on the defensive, one side often tries to let the other penetrate so his own momentum makes him less able to turn and deal with a counterstroke.

Terrorists use a free society's freedom and openness, its greatest strengths, against it. They can move freely within our society while actively working to subvert it. They use our democratic rights not only to penetrate but also to defend themselves. If we treat them within our laws, they gain many protections; if we simply shoot them down, the television news can easily make them appear to be the victims. Terrorists can effectively wage their form of warfare while being protected by the society they are attacking. If we are forced to set aside our own system of legal protections to deal with terrorists, the terrorists win another sort of victory.

Terrorism also appears to represent a solution to a problem that has been generated by previous generational changes but not really addressed by any of them. It is the contradiction between the nature of the modern battlefield and the traditional military culture. That culture, embodied in ranks, saluting uniforms, drill, etc., is largely a product of first generation warfare. It is a culture of order. At the time it evolved it was consistent with the battlefield, which was itself dominated by order. The ideal army was a perfectly oiled machine, and that was what the military culture of order sought to produce.

However, each new generation has brought a major shift toward a battlefield of disorder. The military culture, which has remained a culture of order, has become contradictory to the battlefield. Even in the third generation warfare, the contradiction has not been insoluble; the Wehrmacht bridged it effectively, outwardly maintaining the traditional culture of order while in combat demonstrating the adaptability and fluidity a disorderly battlefield demands. But other militaries, such as the British, have been less successful at dealing with the contradiction. They have often attempted to carry the culture of order over onto the battlefield with disastrous results. At Biddulphsberg, in the Boer War, for example, a handful of Boers defeated two British Guards battalions that fought as if on parade.

End part 1
 
Begin Part 2

The contradiction between the military culture and the nature of modern war confronts a traditional military Service with a dilemma. Terrorists resolve the dilemma by eliminating the culture of order. Terrorists do not have uniforms, drill, saluting or, for the most part, ranks. Potentially, they have or could develop a military culture that is consistent with the disorderly nature of modern war. The fact that their broader culture may be non-Western may facilitate this development.

Even in equipment, terrorism may point toward signs of a change in generations. Typically, an older generation requires much greater resources to achieve a given end than does its successor. Today, the United States is spending $500 million apiece for stealth bombers. A terrorist stealth bomber is a car with a bomb in the trunk—a car that looks like every other car.

Terrorism, Technology, and Beyond

Again, we are not suggesting terrorism is the fourth generation. It is not a new phenomenon, and so far it has proven largely ineffective. However, what do we see if we combine terrorism with some of the new technology we have discussed? For example, that effectiveness might the terrorist have if his car bomb were a product of genetic engineering rather than high explosives? To draw our potential fourth generation out still further, what if we combined terrorism, high technology, and the following additional elements?

A non-national or transnational base, such as an ideology or religion. Our national security capabilities are designed to operate within a nation-state framework. Outside that framework, they have great difficulties. The drug war provides an example. Because the drug traffic has no nation-state base, it is very difficult to attack. The nation-state shields the drug lords but cannot control them. We cannot attack them without violating the sovereignty of a friendly nation. A fourth-generation attacker could well operate in a similar manner, as some Middle Eastern terrorists already do.

A direct attack on the enemy's culture. Such an attack works from within as well as from without. It can bypass not only the enemy's military but the state itself. The United States is already suffering heavily from such a cultural attack in the form of the drug traffic. Drugs directly attack our culture. They have the support of a powerful "fifth column," the drug buyers. They bypass the entire state apparatus despite our best efforts. Some ideological elements in South America see drugs as a weapon; they call them the "poor man's intercontinental ballistic missile." They prize the drug traffic not only for the money it brings in through which we finance the war against ourselves — but also for the damage it does to the hated North Americans.

Highly sophisticated psychological warfare, especially through manipulation of the media, particularly television news. Some terrorists already know how to play this game. More broadly, hostile forces could easily take advantage of a significant product of television reporting — the fact that on television the enemy's casualties can be almost as devastating on the home front as are friendly casualties. If we bomb an enemy city, the pictures of enemy civilian dead brought into every living room in the country on the evening news can easily turn what may have been a military success (assuming we also hit the military target) into a serious defeat.

All of these elements already exist. They are not the product of "futurism," of gazing into a crystal ball. We are simply asking what would we face if they were all combined? Would such a combination constitute at least the beginnings of a fourth generation of warfare? One thought that suggests they might is that third (not to speak of second) generation militaries would seem to have little capability against such a synthesis. This is typical of generational shifts.

The purpose of this paper is to pose a question, not to answer it. The partial answers suggested here may in fact prove to be false leads. But in view of the fact that third generation warfare is now over 70 years old, we should be asking ourselves the question, what will the fourth generation be?
 
Come on now, do not mistaken percision and a will to prevent collateral damage as being a sign of weakness. When it comes to killing the US military is the best at what it does, WHEN OUR HAND ARE NOT TIED . Understand that the author mentions Mogadishu and somehow assumes that no US soldier shot an innocent human shield, yet several helecopter pilots and rangers mentioned that they did reluctantly kill several women and childen that were in front of a man holding and AK-47 or an RPG. It estimated that around 7,000 to 10,000 people were killed in Mogadishu, and they were only able to kill 19 of our men. The US is willing to be brutal, but we are a more advanced culture. In fighting in Iraq, US troops would not send men in to clear a house that had gunmen inside, they would simple throw in a satchel charge and level the entire house. In Both Iraqi wars we Bulldozed enemy foxholes leaving the the soldier inside, just like we did in Germany during WWII. Why does this idiot author think these terrorist are more brave?? Reminds me of that Politically Incorrect Guy, that though the 9/11 hijackers were brave. IED attacks, run and gun ambushes, suicide attacks, come on now, that is brave and in the art of war, productive???? The Iraqi military machine crumbled twice against the US. Somehow we are more pansies dropping BLU on enemy position in Afghanistan and making hundreds or terrorist bleed from the inside out, yet the terrorist are so brave grabbing civilians and surrendering soldiers (In Chechnya and Iraq) and cutting their heads off. Please tell this armchair world scholar to :cuss: off because he does not know what he is talking about.
 
Lonestar,
That armchair world scholar is a lot closer to reality than you can imagine.

Unfortunatly the scholarly tomes are wasted on the brass. In depth education of the corporals would make a big difference if the current crop could read.

Sam
 
You would think with the history of guerilla warfare, the US would fare better. She may win all her battles, and still lose the war.
 
Bowfin said:
"We are shielding our enemies from that terribleness, and they have become too fond of war."

This ties into the 'educated people don't fight as much' gist someone was getting at. What, precisely are we teaching these people? What is the reinforcement we give them?
They attack us and prove their mettle even as they are mown down. They destroy our vehicles while we cannot retaliate, and they have thus struck a blow against the great satan with impunity; their skookum is therefore very great.

We have been going about this in precisely the wrong fashion- we have been trying to fight a people of a nation, not a people of a clan or tribe. A nation values its own existence, a clan or tribe values its 'face'- having lost face is worse than death.
We need to take a hard look back at the British methods during their colonial days, when they made the original world empire. The methods were harsh, brutal even, and we may not have a stomach for them today, but they worked, and well enough for the time they needed.
That is, if the goal is peace in the region, rather than a rebuilt, prosperous region. The latter is the course we have chosen, and it will require generations of commitment to see done.
 
Hubris of the Educated

justashooter said:
uneducated people can be easily manipulated. educated people cannot. educated people cannot be convinced that those of another culture are deserving of disrespect and cruelty.

you note that fanatics are from uneducated cultures, in the main. the answer to ending fanaticism, then, is increasing education. education comes in many forms.
This is a common basket of misconceptions and unsupported by current events, history, and human nature.

uneducated people can be easily manipulated. educated people cannot.
Really, now.

Ever encounter the term. "eugenics?" The best minds of the time were all in support of its goals: John Dewey, Margaret Sanger, Theodore Roosevelt, Alexander Graham Bell, George Bernard Shaw, Winston Churchill, W.E.B. DuBois, Marcus Garvey, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr...to name just a few.

educated people cannot be convinced that those of another culture are deserving of disrespect and cruelty.
Do you think that the publishers of the various Arab newspapers uneducated? Yet, these are the same folks who authorize vile antisemetic comics and articles that cite (approvingly) the Protocols of the Elders of Zion and Mien Kampf.

Pol Pot was educated in Paris. He managed to murder 1/3 the population of Cambodia.

Sayyid Qutb was an Egyptian who not only recieved a western education while in Egypt, he earned a MA at the Colorado State College of Education. Oh, he was the intellectual father of modern Islamic fundamentalism and terror.

you note that fanatics are from uneducated cultures, in the main. the answer to ending fanaticism, then, is increasing education.
From which culture do you think the following poster came?
EnthanasiePropaganda.jpg

Hint: calculus & the printing press
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If you need something a bit more contemporary, the Saudis that jockeyed airliners into the WTC, Pentagon, and PA dirt were well-off and educated. Some were educated here in the USA.

--------

Education is no innoculation from fanaticism, cruelty or manipulation and can not compete with base human nature, tribalism, and religious fervor.
 
just a few thoughts on the matter....NOT my own words

This part is particularly telling….excerpted from below and comments added

But what the Iranians, like the al Qaedists, do not fully fathom, is that Jason, upon concluding that he would lose not only his iPod and earring, but his entire family and suburb as well, is capable of conjuring up things far more frightening than anything in the 8th-century brain of Mr. Ahmadinejad. Unfortunately, the barbarity of the nightmares at Antietam, Verdun, Dresden, and Hiroshima prove that well enough.
And the Islamists REALLY DON’T GET THAT…

We will make ourselves a peace. If we cannot, we will make ourselves a solitude, and we will call it a peace." -Roman commentator on the Pax Romana.
Nukes can achieve that result quickly…and with less loss of american lives. ESPECIALLY if one of our cities has vanished in a nuclear fireball….the gloves WILL COME OFF THEN.




"If they are not careful, a Syria or Iran really will earn a conventional war -- not more futile diplomacy or limited responses to terrorism. And history shows that massive attacks from the air are something that the West does well."
And
And then there is Israel. All sane observers hope it is not drawn into this crisis, and for a variety of reasons. The emboldened Iranians count on this. Yet they do not realize the extent of the dilemma that their rhetoric and nuclear brinkmanship force on an Israeli president. To do nothing, a mere 60 years after the Holocaust, would imply three assumptions on the part of an Israeli leadership — “wiping us off the map” is just theocratic rhetoric; if the Iranians ever do get the bomb, they won’t use it; and if they use it, it won’t be against us.
Those are, in fact, three big “ifs” — and no responsible Israeli can take the chance that he presided over a second holocaust and the destruction of half the world’s surviving Jewry residing in what the radical Islamic world calls a “one-bomb state.”
History would not see such restraint as sobriety, but rather as criminal neglect tantamount to collective suicide, and would reason: “An Israeli prime minister was warned by the president of Iran that he wished to wipe Israel off the map. He was then informed that Iran was close to getting nuclear weapons. And then he did nothing, allowing a radical Islamic regime to gain the means to destroy the Jewish state.”
So for all the lunacy of Mr. Ahmadinejad, it is time for him to sober up and do some cool reckoning. He thinks appearing unhinged offers advantages in nuclear poker. And he preens that unpredictability is the private domain of the fanatical believer, who talks into empty wells and uses his powers of hypnosis to ensure his listeners cannot blink.
Iran, of course, is still an underdeveloped country. It seems to profess that it is willing to lose even its poverty in order to take out one wealthy Western city in the exchange. But emotion works both ways, and the Iranians must now be careful. Mr. Bush is capable of anger and impatience as well. Of all recent American presidents, he seems the least likely to make decisions about risky foreign initiatives on the basis of unfavorable polls.
Israel is not free from its passions either — for there will be no second Holocaust. It is time for the Iranian leaders to snap out of their pseudo-trances and hocus-pocus, and accept that some Western countries are not merely far more powerful than Iran, but in certain situations and under particular circumstances, can be just as driven by memory, history, and, yes, a certain craziness as well.
Ever since September 11, the subtext of this war could be summed up as something like, “Suburban Jason, with his iPod, godlessness, and earring, loves to live too much to die, while Ali, raised as the 11th son of an impoverished but devout street-sweeper in Damascus, loves death too much to live.” The Iranians, like bin Laden, promulgate this mythical antithesis, which, like all caricatures, has elements of truth in it. But what the Iranians, like the al Qaedists, do not fully fathom, is that Jason, upon concluding that he would lose not only his iPod and earring, but his entire family and suburb as well, is capable of conjuring up things far more frightening than anything in the 8th-century brain of Mr. Ahmadinejad. Unfortunately, the barbarity of the nightmares at Antietam, Verdun, Dresden, and Hiroshima prove that well enough.

"So far the Iranian president has posed as someone 90-percent crazy and 10-percent sane, hoping we would fear his overt madness and delicately appeal to his small reservoirs of reason. But he should understand that if his Western enemies appear 90-percent children of the Enlightenment, they are still effused with vestigial traces of the emotional and unpredictable. And military history shows that the irrational 10 percent of the Western mind is a lot scarier than anything Islamic fanaticism has to offer.
So, please, Mr. Ahmadinejad, cool the rhetoric fast — before you needlessly push once reasonable people against the wall, and thus talk your way into a sky full of very angry and righteous jets."
 
Sounds reasonable AaronE. When the Fanatical leaders and Emperor of Japan in WW2 pushed the allies (mostly the USA) too far with thier horrific tactics and brutality, rather then invade Japan after seeing how bad it was on Okinawa, we used Nuclear Bombs. We even warned them to surrender, they didnt. It sucks we had to do that but we did because the alternative land invasion would have probably killed at least 70% of the entire population of Japan and an insane amount of US soldiers. Because all of Japan was so brainwashed to attack us with even spears and swords, and lots of our soldiers who were exhausted from fighting in Europe and the mess in the Pacific. Considering we'd had a rough 2 decades with the Great Depression, Bonnie and Clyde, Al Capone, the Pearl Harbor attack, and Iwo Jima, etc... we'd had more than enough crap from almost everybody. Enough already.

Now with Radical Islam screwing up the Middle East and trying to move in the the Pacific (again with the Pacific!!!) we're in a crappy situation. Hopefully it wont get much worse and be rather "light" compared to WW2 with battles covering huge parts of the globe.

I also agree if any really bad attacks happen again on US soil, the gloves will come off completely. If the UN complains I say tell those worthless bums to shut up or be evicted from the USA. They should move the UN to South Africa anyway. Make them fix up that whole continent a bit, it really needs help.

Hopefully the only nukes we ever have to use again are just bunker busters to get some cowardly leader and his flunkies in some deep underground bunker. Our conventional weapons are pretty good and can do plenty of damage. Remember the MOAB GBU-43/B is conventional but pretty devastating, and we can just drop a few more if one isnt enough. I dont think we'll have to nuke a whole city again. I hope.
 
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