Unintended Consequences
My take on the ammo shortage
My explanations:
A: More ammo demand for new guns for old and new gun owners.
Code:
NICS National Instant Check System Background Checks
primarily Form 4473 Transactions--gun sales at licensed dealers
YEAR NICS
2010 14,409,616
2011 16,454,951
2012 19,592,303
Ammo in the supply system (manufacturer -> distributor -> wholesaler -> retailer) did not enter the supply stream yesterday. It entered the supply stream months ago. Increased gun sales were unprecedented.
B: More ammo demand sparked by political calls for more gun and ammo restriction and "regulations" that include Assault Weapons Bans.
C: More military target shooting sports/CMP demand.
These points have influenced my ammo buying behavior.
B. When the antis started talking ammo bans or punitive ammo taxes back in the 1980s, I adopted a personal policy of maintaining a stockpile of over a thousand .22, two hundred 12ga and one hundred-fifty .30-30. New ammo went in the back, and the older ammo got shot first.
C. I own a M1 Carbine and for years bought one or two boxes of 50 per year. It was relatively easy to find. The gun was a military collectible, also comforting to have for protection (in case of feral or rabid dogs, coyotes etc.) when alone on the mountain.
Our club started Modern and Vintage Military Rifle and Pistol matches a few years back, parallel with a national increase in sales of surplus carbines by the Civilian Marksmanship Program. There was an increase in the number of folks shooting M1 carbine. Three targets 10 rounds each for score each match, 7 matchs per season; four disciplines: modern pistol, modern rifle, vintage pistol, vintage rifle.
I was shooting M1 carbine in modern and vintage rifle and M1911A1 pistol in modern and vintage pistol, needing 420 rounds .30 M1 carbine and 420 rounds .45 ACP to shoot for score alone, much less rounds for practice, sight check, etc. There were periodic droughts of .30 carbine and .45 ACP.
It was explained to me that ammo manufacturers base production for the next year on last year's sales, by caliber. Those that make .30 M1 carbine, for example, produce in a few weeks or months the production run of ammo they expect to sell over the next year. They don't maintain continuous production of many calibers on a 24/7/365 basis. They were ill prepared for the upswing in military match shooting. After a few seasons I found I had to start stockpiling at least two seasons' worth.
A. kicked as a result. I also diversified since shortages of .30 carbine and .45 ACP might last months. I added a CZ52 pistol (modern military) and Mosin-Nagant 91/30 rifle (vintage and modern rifle) since affordable quantities of 7.62x25 or 7.62x54R were available when .45 ACP and .30 Carbine was not. I have also shot my Mauser C96, Webley MkIV and H&K USP pistols based on ammo availability. And my son gave me a Yugo M70AB2 (modern military) and 7.63x39 is usually findable at reasonable prices.
