Is there really a shortage?

[mewachee]

I am starting to buy bulk, where as I never did before. Lately, I have been forced to look everywhere for my loading needs. A week ago, I had to drive an hour to get the primers I use for my 270. The bullets, I used until I couldn't find them anywhere, were always here until the last couple months. Then I had to drive an hour to get a pound of H4350, cost me $25 plus $25 in gas. I was talking to a manager at a local sportsman's warehouse, and says that government contracts are eating up the materials.

Should I start stocking up?

 

[Bartkowski]

It's a little bit late to stock up if you want good prices, but you may as well buy what you can.

 

[MADDOG]

Buy whenever you find it. I have been "stocking up" for years and I am still looking. I don't think a reloader can have to much.

 

[rcmodel]

I don't doubt there is a copper shortage.

The crack-heads are stealing telephone lines right off the poles around here. And running air conditioners off of roofs, and Bronze markers off of headstones!

As for the other stuff like powder & primers, hard to tell if it's artificial or induced. Of course, that we are supplying both sides with ammo in the middle east isn't helping matters any either!

But $3.50 a gallon diesel fuel to haul it & prices for energy to manufacture stuff is going through the roof.

It's sure never going to get any cheaper!

rcmodel

 

[David Wile]

Hey RC,

That response was probably the most depressing thing I have ever read from you. Sure, you may be right, but it is still depressing.

Best wishes,
Dave Wile

 

[Galil5.56]

Yeah, I wish Diesel was $3.50/gallon... Try $4.15+ in Central IN.

 

[ranger335v]

Yeah, there is a "real" shortage of components in the stores. I suspect it's because many people think there is a shortage so they are stocking up far more than usual! Sort of a "Y2K" syndrome, you know?

 

[mewachee]

One more thing. The other day, I bought a box of hard cast lead bullets. The last box I bought cost somewhere around $22. I spent $36 dollars for the same item; same store.

 

[Chief-7700]

Diesel $ 4.50 Central CA
Chief-7700

 

[rcmodel]

I suspect it's because many people think there is a shortage

Wonder how many folks still have primers horded up, that they horded up when the "lead-free primers will go bad in two years" rumor went around in the 90"s.

You couldn't beg, borrow, or steal primers there for a couple of years!

Not because there weren't enough being made, but because a few people were stashing them away by the pallet loads.

rcmodel

 

[ants]

"As to reports that the military’s increased demand for munitions has resulted in shortages in ammunition for police and sporting needs, Grace said that connection between the Iraq war and civilian munitions shortages has been overblown for ATK. Besides the Lake City plant, he noted that ATK operates two other domestic facilities that produce civilian ammunition directed toward the sporting use and law enforcement. Those two facilities are providing 30 percent more small caliber ammo to law enforcement than a year ago."

This is the final paragraph in a recent trade article. Brian Grace is the public affairs spokesman at the Lake City army ammunition plant. ATK is the civilian contractor that runs the plant and is also the largest ammo manufacturer in the world (they own Federal Cartridge, Alliant, and a host of other brands known to you and me). The article is interesting reading (see link below). It says that about 80% of our military ammo consumption is for training. For all manufacturers together, about 1.5 billion rounds are produced for the military annually. http://www.military-training-technol...cfm?DocID=2131

If I understand the numbers correctly in the 2006 NSSF (National Shooting Sports Foundation) report, about 10 billion rounds of centerfire and 1.1 billion shotshells for civilian use produced in or imported to America. I could find no info on the rimfire count.

So the answer is that you and I are shooting more, at a time when metals commodities prices are going up. Buy your bullets wherever you find the best deal. At today's gas prices, consider paying the shipping rather than driving two hours to buy components.

 

[USSR]

The time to stock up was 2 - 3 years ago. Doing so now is like deciding to start investing in gold when it is $1000+ an ounce.

Don

 

[ArchAngelCD]

The local Gander Mt. is charging $29.99/1000 for CCI/Winchester Primers and $39.99/1000 for Federal Primers. Most pistol powders are $24.95 and rifle powders are between $29.95 and $34.95. Oh, and Diesel fuel is $4.39 for 9/10 gallon today in NE PA.

Prices are going up and I doubt they will ever fall no matter what happens in the metals market.

 

[mewachee]

I am a "rich American." Not really, but my reason for this thread has more to do with wanting to have what I need, when I need it. The cost is getting out of control. For the most part, I can load for less than I can buy the ammo still.

I am not a doomsdayer, but it feels like our sports is in even more danger.

 

[kennedy]

I am at that age where my house is paid off and I am making big bucks, but am still looking for deals, just bought 500 .223 bullets for $40 shipped, don`t even have the dies yet, but I bought them before another price hike. midway has a reduced price deal going on till sunday and I plan on buying dies, case trimmers, boxes etc to set me up for .223 reloading. I should be able to reload for the same price I paid for a case of lake city .223 a year ago.

 

[coloradokevin]

The whole economic situation within the shooting community has alwasy baffled me a bit...

I guess it all revolves around us hording when supplies appear tight. But, nevertheless, we seem to be in a position where -- as consumers -- we buy more every time the price goes up!

Sort of like this thought process:

1) Ammo went up %5
2) "oh no, the ammo is disappearing"
3) "We gotta buy more ammo quick"
4) Stores run out of ammo
5) Production picks up again... prices may increase more depending on new demand.

 

[Clark]

The demand for Lead and Copper has increased dramatically, and the market has responded.

The new higher price will create incentive for more Copper and Lead mines and refinerys.

 

[ar10]

It's probably too late in the game for me but 6 mths ago I bought .40SW for 9.95 per box and 9mm for 4.99 per box. 40 is not 17.99 and 9mm is 12.99. I won't even go into my rifles. Luckly I bought 2 cases of each 1k rnds per case. I won't even go into getting GAP rounds, I can't even find bullets for it.
I'm just glad I got into reloading when I did.

 

[David Wile]

Hey folks,

Sometime around 1989 or 1990, lead shot was up to about $18 a 25 pound bag in most retail shops. It had been climbing in price for more than a year. Then the price of lead suddenly dropped back down below $10 a bag at the same retail shops. The distributor was selling it wholesale at about $9 a bag. I called the distributor and asked about buying in a larger quantity and lower price. They gave me a price of $5 a bag if I would buy a full pallet which amounted to about two tons of shot. They even allowed me to take my two tons in different sizes. I went over with my 16 foot trailer and hauled away about two tons at one time and paid about $800.

Hand loading two tons of shot was a whole lot of work, but it really did not take up much space. In a couple years, shot was back up to nearly $20 a bag, and I sold some of my stash. Now it is 2008, shot is pushing $40 a bag, and I only have a dozen or so bags left. Like RC said, I am not likely to buy a bag of shot for $5 again. I wish I had bought two trailer loads of shot back then.

Best wishes,
Dave Wile

 

[ants]

Sometimes the price of a commodity rises (or falls) independently of the old Supply & Demand curve.

In January 2008, several foreign countries allowed their lead export subsidies to expire. One month later, February 2008, the price of lead went up dramatically (28%, if I remember correctly). It had nothing to do with supply and demand. It had everything to do with export subsidies.

Unfortunately, we shoot lead and copper down our barrels. In our own self interest, we need to understand commodity markets in order to make wise and timely decisions.

 

[sublimaze41]

I never completely understood this hording versus holding off on buying thing. I don't consider reloading part of the "collective effort."

If prices are fair compared to what is available I will buy it. In the 12+ years I have loaded I don't recall components coming down in price. I consider my purchases now as an insurance policy for my future shooting needs. 2 things I am almost certain of 1- my wages are not likely to go up 2- history has taught me that all my reloading supplies will increase in price.

I am a firm believer of buying in bulk. Anybody who spends $20 in gas is not thinking clearly. That $20 will cover your hazmat fee for primers and powder up to 48 pounds. I also count taxes not paid on my purchases. I am currently shooting Accurate Arms 2230 in my .223. My average cost per pound is $14.35 with shipping. Of course I add at least 5k of primers to further reduce the cost. I am using primers I bought last month for $115 per 5K with shipping. The key is buying in bulk alone or with a friend. The internet is your friend for getting the best price.

To be truthful, I have NEVER experienced not being able to buy any reloading component I wanted. Sure the price is going up, up, up......it can be minimized with an effective strategy.

 

[mewachee]

here is where my concern lies. My shooting has gone up 2,000 %, literally. I wasn't worried before, and never experienced not getting what I needed. This time around is my learning experience.

 

[Clark]

Price of Lead over the last 4 years

 

[Otto]

Sometimes the price of a commodity rises (or falls) independently of the old Supply & Demand curve

.

I agree.
As an example, Americans are actually using less gasoline than they were a year ago, yet gas continues to rise.
Investors are bidding-up the price of nearly all the commodities like metals, corn, wheat etc.
The weak US dollar compounds the problem.
Lead and copper prices may eventually fall but don't count on bullets to do the same.

 

[ArchAngelCD]

The Commodities Market prices for metal, oil and almost anything else is a speculation on what the price will be 6 months out (or more) yet gas prices are rising at every price increase that MAY happen 6 months to a year from now. That's not the way it's supposed to happen. It used to be called price gouging when a company would raise the price of gas that's in the hole because the futures prices went up that day. Same thing with ammo, surplus ammo has no reason to go up since it was manufactured 20 or 30 years ago or even 50 years ago. That ammo has nothing to do with the price of today's metals yet they keep raising the prices. The companies are getting very greedy and we are letting them do it buy buying more every time they raise the price. (I'm included) You're not supposed to be allowed to raise the price of a product you already bought or have on the shelf because it's going to cost you more to replace that item when it's sold, but that's whats happening over the past few years.