Veterans of the last components shortage...

[Trey Veston]

Since I'm relatively new to reloading, I had never paid attention to reloading components during ammo shortages, and have a question.

In what order do components usually start showing up again?

This shortage, it seems bullets are starting to show up both locally and online. Some powders have been showing up lately as well.

Today I did my weekly inquiry about primers and they still either aren't available, or are at stupid prices that are close to loaded ammunition.

Looked for brass and there was some available at reasonable prices.

Just curious if those who have endured past shortages remember if primers were the last component to become available again, or if this time things are different.

 

[IMtheNRA]

Bullets, then powder, and primers are the last to return to normal. Primers seem to be occasionallyy available now at midway, brownells, and powder valley. Still overpriced, but not like a year ago.

 

[AJC1]

That trend matches my observations but we are just starting the powder return.

 

[Howa 9700]

I have been wondering about longevity of these shortages. How long they have continued. This one seems longer than most.....but I wasn't in the game for the past shortages.

BTW, having found enough stuff to hold out for a couple years if need be, I have mostly quit looking for anything. So just did another gonebroker check and looks like large rifle primers still selling in the 12 to 15 cents per range. Selling for that. And widely available for 20 to 25 cents. Both at least 2X to 4X what they are priced at Midway and PV......when they turn up.

 

[Charlie98]

During the First Dark Age, I don't remember primers being that big of a problem. Powder was, as was loaded ammunition, but I don't recall primers, brass, or bullets being in as such short supply as we are seeing this go 'round, let alone the insane run on firearms... all firearms, not just AR's... themselves.

 

[AJC1]

Shipping world wide is an amplifying factor, while politics was the only real factor before.

 

[mdi]

This time the shortage was politically driven, plus a virus added problems affecting employees for manufacturing and delivery...

Hint when components are available; whey you buy, get one more than you need (without hoarding/hogging). When ever you're in a store that sells components, drop by the sporting goods dept. and pick up one pound, one brick, etc. (without hoarding/hogging). I started doing this in the '80s and now I have plenty of components (and a 5 gal bucket full of 22 lr bricks and boxes). I lived in earthquake country most of my life and being prepared was essential (food, water, essentials and ammo) and I just carried that over to reloading. Works for me...

 

[Rule3]

Lots of smaller company's make bullets so those are usually available first
Then powders there are lots of them.
Leaving primers which only a few make unless the 12 new factories start producing or a freighter, off shore, full of them arrives

Then of course there was the great hoarding of 22 lr, when other ammo became so expensive.

 

[bullseye308]

This one is an anomaly, far worse than in the past, but looks to be following the usual trend. Primers will be hardest due to the demands on factory rounds and the limited production capabilities of the manufacturers. They can only safely increase production to a point and adding capacity is a tremendous undertaking. Powder capacity is a little easier to increase and bullets are the easiest even with the limited availability of copper and lead.

 

[BBarn]

So far it appears to be pretty similar to last time as far as the return of component availability. Primers were the last to return then.

Having gone through a few of the shortages, I buy powder, and especially primers, in quantity when availability is good and prices are reasonable. As a result, I can keep shooting while avoiding the need to pay ridiculus prices for components.

I anticipate prices returning to reasonable levels over the next year barring another panic of some sort..

 

[berettaprofessor]

During the First Dark Age, I don't remember primers being that big of a problem. Powder was, as was loaded ammunition, but I don't recall primers

This^^^ I started reloading during the First Dark age; I had plenty of primers and brass available but couldn't find powder....I loaded with whatever I could find, used it up, and then lucked into something else and had to go through developing a cartridge all over again. No 22LR for 2 years. And there was a slow down of 9 mm and 380 ACP, but I could always get a few. All shortages are a little different.

 

[kcofohio]

As others have noted, bullets, powder, and primers. But last time I don't recall the high prices from places like gun broker. I started reloading in 2011. And even when the craziness started in '13, I could score a case (5k) of primers that I'd split with others. From places like Powder Valley, and Midsouth. 22LRs seemed harder to come by than primers back then.

 

[Trey Veston]

Great responses! Exactly what I was looking for! I started reloading back in 2009 or so, and only reloaded .45-70 Govt. BPCR match loads. So all I needed was black powder, large rifle primers, and lead. Pretty easy to find, even today.

I added .45 Colt, then 10mm and .40 S&W in 2014 or so, and had no idea that CCI SPP and WSF and W231 would disappear overnight. Still have enough for another year or so, but would like another few thousand to feel comfortable.

I also added all of my hunting calibers to my list of reloading calibers and luckily my dad has years and years of bullets, powders, and primers. I have at least 20 years worth of components for my .308, .30-06, and .30-06 AI for hunting.

 

[jag22]

A weekly search ain't gonna hack it. When something shows up at one of the major online dealers it will usually last about a half a day. I have lucked out in the last few weeks, primers at Midway and Brownells, powder at Powder Valley and 22 at CCI. I checked back a couple hours later and all were gone except 22 at CCI. Also got a couple of sample packs from Missouri Bullets, mailed the same day. I'm good for a while.

 

[brewer12345]

I think it may be a while before we see readily available primers at non-scalper prices. This cycle is elongated, although we might see things suddenly slacken if the midterms go the way it looks like they will at this point. The wildcard is whether there is another trigger. Last time we had the Obummer II election and right as things were calming down sandy hook happened. So that could certainly happen this time around.

When they are readily available again BUY PRIMERS. Before this run the manufacturers were going begging so much so that they were offering rebates. I got paid rebates for buying Win SP primers for $125/5000. Free shipping or free hazmat deals were also common.

 

[Bassfishing54]

The availability of components currently available will depend on how active you are about notifications and timely visits to vendors. Primers will be the slowest item to find if the last shortage was any kind of indicator. It is best to just be ready to purchase as the inventories return. New brass seems tighter this time, from what I have seen, but I think that is because of material availability the last year. One fired brass inventory is tighter too, because of the ammo shortage and I don't think it will recover as quickly with all the steel cased ammo that is available. Brass prices will stay firm as long as zinc (50% higher than 12 months ago) and copper (100% higher than 12 months ago) remain strong. As inventory returns, purchase quantities on a regular basis and watch for sales to build up an inventory you feel sufficient to last a couple years or more.

 

[bluejay75]

My best advice is to take a hard look at the calibers that you reload for and look to the interoperability of your components.
Everything I shoot gets small rifle primers in both pistol and rifle. High volume shooting in my ARs is done with steel case ammo that reloading is more expensive than the ammo. I don’t own a magnum rifle and shoot only two different diameter rifle bullets. Learn to cast bullets and focus on calibers with a history of being inherently accurate. So at this point I can live with 3 primers types and powder only and could shoot for 7-10 years unless I’m routinely getting in firefights.

 

[EricBu]

The first big shortage I suffered through was in...I guess 92. Powders, bullets, brass...then primers seems to be the normal order of return. This one may be different though...because in the past, the shortages weren't a triple whammy like this one. This time, we have politics, a pandemic, AND a shortage of raw materials. Powder was coming back, but now it seems that there is a shortage of nitrocellulose, so it's not clear how much of an effect that will have going forward. Primers seemed to have dried up again, same with brass. Bullets still seem to be steadily coming back, but costs have gone up a lot. Ammo was coming back and prices were going down...then they started creeping back up.

My advice to you...if you want to shoot...buy what you see when you see it. It may be expensive, but there is no guarantee that the price will go back down any time soon. I think 70.00/1000 + hazmat/shipping primers are here to stay for at least a year or two..the new norm until the price of raw materials drops. If you see primers at your LGS for under 80.00/1000 right now, buy them. Or don't. 10 other people will fight over them if you don't want them.

 

[nick22]

I think the elongated virus lockdowns in all parts of the world will lead to things we aren't used to doing without. I have a decent amount of powder primers and bullets put up. My better half is tired of seeing things like Brownells Midway and RMR show up on my credit card. I will take a pause from purchasing for a bit. I don't see prices getting much better with the ban on import of Russian ammo and the raw material shortages that will continue. I have been through a few shortages but they didn't go on for over a year this one is the worst I've seen.

 

[Hartkopf]

This shortage goes WAY past the normal puppet politicians. We have censorship and mandates like a fledgling ******** empire. When this sort of heavy handed BS gets applied to guns and ammo, it will continue to get worse. Already have a probable ban on cheap steel case ammo from Russia coming. The green new steal will also find a way to making shooting too expensive for regular people. Like a lead ban and who knows what else. But if we’re lucky the system will work and rebalance itself and we’ll all feel good in a couple years. But this time is also different because of inflation and shortages hitting everything including material costs. The way things have gone since 2020, I’m counting on more crap to shovel. It’s enough to make a person think it’s all coordinated.

 

[bluejay75]

Gents stay on topic please. He asked a legitimate question not a political one.

 

[Toprudder]

I was just getting started when the last “big scare” happened in 2012/2013. My observation, mainly from what was available at the local gun shows, was that small pistol primers were the first to disappear. Pistol powders weren’t too bad until the primers started showing up, at which time the pistol powders evaporated. The last thing to show back up was 22 Ammo. What we are seeing now, however, is different and much worse. While there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel, I don’t see it getting anywhere near “back to normal” for more than a year.

Like others have mentioned, when things got back to normal I started stocking up by buying at least twice what I was consuming. I have not bought any powder or primers since this thing started, but I have enough to last several years.

 

[Random 8]

In my neck of the woods, common bullets were widely available first, then primers actually came back fairly early. I credit this to the massive influx of S&B primers carried locally by Cabelas. Powder was a little difficult for quite some time, but some useful options were available, just maybe not Brand/Type X/Y.

I've been seeing common calibers of ammunition sit on the shelves until discounted locally now, so I think happier times are just over the horizon.

 

[twarr1]

Last few spells primers and 22lr were first to go and last to come back. I can’t help but wonder how many billions of 22lr are now stashed around the country. It seems most learned to stock up on them after previous droughts. This time it’ll be primers. So I see buying pressure on primers to remain strong for the foreseeable future. Especially true if everybody buys “twice what they think they’ll need”.
People just need to remember if they stock over 10k primers at home they will potentially have a big problem with insurance and liability.

 

[cfullgraf]

Component shortages seem to last several years so when times are good, stock up.

The current shortage seems to be especially tight as many, many new shooters are entering the market and panic buying is the buzz word of the day.