It Occurs to Me...

[Joshua M. Smith]

... about this ammo thing. It occurs to me that we may be digging our own hole.

Back in, I'm wanting to say the '70s sometime, Johnny Carson made a joke. It was along the lines of how the government was going to take over the production of toilet paper, so of course there would be a shortage.

Now, he was talking to folks who were absolutely paranoid about shortages. They remembered it from WWII and, to a lesser extent, Vietnam.

So they ran out and started buying all the TP they could find. Prices went up and TP actually got hard to find in some areas. Supply could not keep up with demand, and even though manufacturers launched commercials assuring customers that there was plenty being made, the empty store shelves convinced the buyers that there wasn't.

Carson came on to clarify that he was talking about government issue toilet paper, but that did nothing to calm peoples' fears, either.

Eventually the scare wiped itself out, but things were messy for a while.

Here's a link to a webpage sporting the story: http://www.talkdelaware.com/f14/great-toilet-paper-shortage-6270.html

Not my original source - my original source was an actual book - but that's the story.

Now, if you've stuck with me this far: Rumors are running rampant about the shortages of ammo. There was some truth to this, and may be again - the first time was due to raw material prices, and the second will probably be political.

But for right now, from what I understand, the raw material prices have stabilized.

I can get components just fine - true, they're still up a bit, but there's by no means a shortage.

From what I'm seeing, we're now creating our own shortages, and due to the way Capitalism works, prices will reflect demand.

What if we just laid back off the ammo buying for a bit? I've got plenty, and most of you folks do as well, I'm assuming. That goes double for you reloaders.

So, what do you think? At first, yes, there was a shortage caused by raw material availability. Now, it seems that we are fueling it.

I'm not trying to be politically charged here; I'm just asking that maybe we need to take a couple steps back and look at the situation.

Josh <><

 

[Duke of Doubt]

I'm only short a couple of calibers, one in particular (in my defense I only got a gun in that caliber late last year). I say let it roll. Folks will be trying to sell their ammunition piles to pawnbrokers soon enough to try and save their jalopies, and the ammo then will be had by me, cheap.

 

[MikePGS]

Very well put. You gave a nice rational argument as to why people should not be submitting to panic. Unfortunately, the majority of people are not as rational as we would like them to be, so as soon as they hear something that even remotely sounds like it could lead to a ban of ammo or guns, whatever, they go out there and strip everything off of the shelves, causing those who do not panic to suffer as well.

 

[James T Thomas]

hey buddy did you hear?

Didn't we; USA get this "scare" tactic crammed in our faces during the Presidential Election?
You know. The Crisis in our economy!
And it was believed. I can't believe it.

Today, I've even heard commercials for a windshield repacement service trying to scare people into getting resin injection before those dreaded cracks spread. You should hear it.

Here on THR we are sensitive to classifying some of the population as sheep.
But did you know that sheep will not graze by running water -because they are afraid?

And so some greedy purveyors have began to post here about shortages of this and that. About the skyrocketing cost of firearms.
And it is a self perpetuating phenomenon. To a degree anyway.

 

[Kindrox]

trying to scare people into getting resin injection before those dreaded cracks spread.

I let my winshield crack go and one freeze later I had to pay to replace the whole thing.

Life is a risk. Buy now while you can get it. Wait later till the price goes down. Fact is things could go either way, making one group look smart and the other group look stupid.

The good news is higher prices will lead to greater production, which in the long term could lead to lower prices than would otherwise be the case.

 

[Walkalong]

Folks will be trying to sell their ammunition piles to pawnbrokers soon enough to try and save their jalopies, and the ammo then will be had by me, cheap.

That could well happen.

 

[ConstitutionCowboy]

There is or would be no real shortage now or in the near future. The ammo is simply in the hands of the consumers in stead of sitting on store shelves. I doubt people will start using it up much faster for any great length of time which could, of course, create a shortage if production isn't sped up to keep up.

As for me, I feel better having it in my possession rather than relying on store keepers to keep it on hand, or chancing the government making it difficult to obtain.

Reloading equipment and supplies might seem to be in short supply due to more and more people reloading - me for instance - but that will level off as well so long as ammo consumption(shooting) doesn't appreciably increase and stay elevated.

It's the same for arms. We've got a little buying bubble right now, but I'm sure it'll stabilize before any serious waiting lists get very long.

All that said, I hope more and more people realize they have a duty to arm themselves and exercise their right to do just that. The more of us armed, the less the chances we'll be attacked from without or enslaved from within.

Woody

 

[Duke of Doubt]

I'd love to know the thoughts of Red Erkel as he ponders the fact that the only things his countrymen ARE buying are guns and ammunition.

 

[franconialocal]

About Stocking Up

I don't impulse buy, or stock up because of any scare or hype. I only buy what I need and what I have room for.

I suppose if I were wealthier, had more storage room and ultimately could shoot more then it would be a given.

 

[leadcounsel]

When in history have gun and ammo COME DOWN IN PRICE? The only time I can think of was after a 10 year oppressive 'assault weapon ban' - and then it was only due to LUCK (that the bill sunset AND we had a Congress and President that allowed it to sunset). We could have VERY EASILY had a permenent AWB.

I'm not a fear monger, but this isn't some artificial increase in prices. I've probably doubled my money on my guns and ammo collection up until now, and I don't expect that the prices I've been paying since the election are going to go anywhere but UP indefinately.

This isn't an irrational price increase (well, some are taking advantage, but reputable dealers aren't for the most part).

Let's break this down; part is supply and demand and part is materials:

1) Ammo - prices of copper, lead, gunpowder and brass have steadily gone up over the last five years. Copper doubled around 2006 IIRC. Oil and shipping also added to the increases in price b/c ammo is heavy.

2) Guns - raw materials have gotten more expensive; oil and shipping has gotten more expensive, and lastly the MOST VOCALLY ANTI-GUN ADMINISTRATION (PRES, VP, CABINET, ATTORNEY GENERAL, AND CONGRESS) is now in near TOTAL control with almost veto-proof majority. Guns have been flying off the shelves!

Like anything else, the world rewards those that plan and punishes those that wait until the last minute. People that fail in school didn't prepare. People that fail at work didn't prepare. People that don't have supplies (food, water, clothing, etc.) in a disaster didn't prepare.

 

[Davionmaximus]

People are in panic mode right now..
Everyone ran our and pruchaced firearms in a mad rush prior to the election. I was just at the gun show last weekend and guess what... they had plenty of guns.
Same is going to go for ammunition. Yea, there has been a surge in ammuntion buying but it can also be due to the increase of new gun owners entering the market. I went to the gun range just after Christmas and wow.. there were dozens of brand new gun owners there (easy to spot) shooting countless rounds downrange.

This should level out as many of these new gun owners will soon tire of thier new toys and the high costs of practicing thier shooting. Most will end up in the closet before long.

This should lead to the price coming down... if you follow the logic of supply and demand.

 

[dbarile]

Joshua:

That's a good story and a valid point to an extent. Any 'panic buying' of anything tends to increase the price. More people hearing about a shortage, and they run out and stock up as well.

However, this 'panic' is driven not by a misunderstood story, but by the likely hood of a future ban on a certain group of weapons.

An assault weapons ban has been promised, and statements made by the current president have promised further measures (none good). We also have the promise that he will 'act fast' on his agenda.

All this would lead a rational person to decide that if he wishes to buy a EBR or some military surplus ammo, now is a good time; yesterday was better, tomorrow will be worse. The last ban ended because congress did not act. The new ban is promised to be permanent; this would require congress to act to end it. I never bet on congress.

I hope things settle down and we get a reduction in some prices. There are a few pieces out there I still want. I don't see that happening though. I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Here's to $400 Saigas and 10 cent a round 7.62x39; no one will be happier than me.

 

[MT GUNNY]

The only cal that is lacking in this area is 7.62x39.
however there is a Dealer here that is a Price Gouger and Idiot, that has some for a normal Price.

 

[hounder]

AMMO

I believe that we are in line for some brutal inflation, there is not any other way with the Government emptying peoples pockets with their massive spending plan, and more to come. Let's see in the 70's it was sugar shortage,gas shortage,coffee shortage,and a couple of others that I can't remember,you either payed the price or did without! What is it, those that don't study history are condemned to repeat it! I think by next year those that have supplies stocked up will be having the last laugh. IMHO. hounder

 

[.38 Special]

Just wanted to to share my admiration for writing a post about toilet paper shortages and sneaking in lines like "digging our own hole", "the scare wiped itself out", and "things were messy for a while".

Well done!

 

[Mousegun]

Too bad ammo refunding wasn't included in the B.S. spending package from the "O".

 

[Rezin]

I have seen a few posts on here where folks went into Wal-Mart or another shop and "bought all they had"

So others walk in, see the empty shelf, and get paranoid, and then THEY go buy out some other shop, etc., etc., etc..

It self perpetuates.

 

[Bob Spangler]

"There is or would be no real shortage now or in the near future."

Really? If anyone can show me where to get an 8# batch of Varget powder I'd be delighted.

Bob

 

[Rockwell1]

Carson came on to clarify that he was talking about government issue toilet paper, but that did nothing to calm peoples' fears, either.

Eventually the scare wiped itself out, but things were messy for a while.

No Comment

 

[Seminole]

Eventually the scare wiped itself out, but things were messy for a while.

Heh, heh, heh. . . !

 

[Joshua M. Smith]

You like my puns, eh? I'm sure I can come up with more.

 

[209]

A tongue-in-cheek reply is that we are stimulating the economy by all of the gun and ammo purchases although I think the retail sales index wasn't increased all that much by those sales. But in today's economy even an increase of a fraction of 1% is good.

But it is getting rather disappointing to look for ammo and see "out of stock" after the listings.

Now, pardon me, I have to go buy some toilet paper.

 

[PTK]

I've bought as little ammo as possible in the past six months - all I've really been buying is .22lr for range practice.

 

[Superlite27]

Supply and demand.

It has been proposed that we slack off of the demand in order to lower cost.

This is backwards thinking. This will only lead to a reduction in supply to maintain cost (since the "scare" has us scarfing it up as soon as we see it)

The best way to guarantee plenty of ammo and a resulting decrease in cost due to increased supply is to guarantee an increase in supply.

How do you guarantee an increase in supply?

Increase demand.

Buy MORE not less.

Doesn't it stand to reason that if you are willing to pay for an item, the saavy thing for a business to do is make sure they have enough of the item to make money on?

If we stop demanding ammo, why should they make more?

I'm going to go out on a lark and predict something: (and I am no expert, just a speculator)

Something tells me that by June of 2009 there will be so much ammo stacked on store shelves, we'll probably start seeing free "giveaways". BUY ONE, GET ONE FREE! or Free Box of Ammo with firearms purchase!

Just a guess though. Nothing scientific.

 

[Big Bill]

eventually the scare wiped itself out, but things were messy for a while.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!