Need help on study

[JellyJar]

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/Study-shows-restrictions-reduce-gun-deaths-4147699.php

My local paper republished the above story about a study that reports to show that states with lenient gun control laws have higher "gun deaths" than states with restrictive gun laws. However, there is no mention of the name or origin of this study.

Does anyone have any idea which study they are referring to?

I think it is reprehensible for any news outlet to publish a story like this without stating the name and origin of such a study. How else are we to be able to double check the veracity of such a story!

 

[Skribs]

Just post studies you find that say the opposite. I think there's a huge list, completely referenced, of how gun control fails and how law abiding citizens are better protected, but I can't remember the URL.

 

[Justin]

Statistically speaking, places with more liberal gun laws will have higher rates of gun-related crime. However this is an old trick of anti gun activists where they attempt to separate gun- related violence from all other violence.

Don't fall for it because even in places with functional gun control, it never lead s to lower overall rates of violence.

Rather, criminals simply substitute other sorts of weapons, and rates of victimization go up because honest citizens are denied the means to defend themselves.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S3 using Tapatalk. Hence all the misspellings and goofy word choices.

 

[1911 guy]

Agreed with Justin. Perhaps a better tack would be to contrast gun restriction with violent crime overall. Unless, of course, you wanted to focus on Chicago. Some of the most draconian laws in the country, coupled with the highest crime rate in the region.

 

[JFtheGR8]

The problem with U.S. studies based off of information the FBI has collected is that justifiable homicides while using a gun in self defense are lumped in with all other homicides with a gun during the commission of a crime. That's convenient for the anti gun crowd.


Posted from Thehighroad.org App for Android

 

[Warp]

The problem with U.S. studies based off of information the FBI has collected is that justifiable homicides while using a gun in self defense are lumped in with all other homicides with a gun during the commission of a crime. That's convenient for the anti gun crowd.


Posted from Thehighroad.org App for Android

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/uc....-2011/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-15

The number of justified homicides isn't usually high enough to significantly change the numbers, as that link above (from the FBI) shows.

However, as was pointed out earlier, you need to look at total violent crime, not just crimes committed with firearms. That WILL change the numbers.

 

[Librarian]

Here's a link to the study: http://smartgunlaws.org/gun-laws-ma...-the-link-between-weak-laws-and-gun-violence/

Here's a telling paragraph from the SFGate story

In 2009 and 2010, the most recent years for which information is available, California had the nation's strongest gun controls and the ninth-lowest rate of gun deaths, according to the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, which favors firearms regulation.
...
In 2010, the report said, quoting the federal Centers for Disease Control, California had 7.88 gun deaths for each 100,000 residents

If CA has the 'strongest gun controls', why does it not have the 'lowest rate of gun deaths'?

So, go look at CDC data, WISQARS Pick All intents, Firearm, sort by State, and we get their source:

 2010, United States
[B]Firearm Deaths and Rates[/B] per 100,000
All Races, Both Sexes, All Ages
ICD-10 Codes: W32-W34,X72-X74,X93-X95,Y22-Y24, Y35.0,*U01.4


                           Number of                    Crude     Age-Adjusted
  State                       Deaths      Population     Rate           Rate**

  Alabama                        782       4,779,736    16.36            16.18
  Alaska                         144         710,231    20.28            20.51
  Arizona                        931       6,392,017    14.57            14.53
  Arkansas                       419       2,915,918    14.37            14.39
  California                   2,935      37,253,956     7.88             7.70
  Colorado                       555       5,029,196    11.04            10.72
  Connecticut                    209       3,574,097     5.85             5.85
  Delaware                        88         897,934     9.80             9.88
  District of Columbia            99         601,723    16.45            14.62
  Florida                      2,268      18,801,310    12.06            11.44
  Georgia                      1,223       9,687,653    12.62            12.62
  Hawaii                          45       1,360,301     3.31             3.21
  Idaho                          198       1,567,582    12.63            12.73
  Illinois                     1,064      12,830,632     8.29             8.19
  Indiana                        709       6,483,802    10.93            10.82
  Iowa                           213       3,046,355     6.99             6.80
  Kansas                         300       2,853,118    10.51            10.44
  Kentucky                       555       4,339,367    12.79            12.48
  Louisiana                      864       4,533,372    19.06            19.11
  Maine                          113       1,328,361     8.51             7.86
  Maryland                       538       5,773,552     9.32             9.26
  Massachusetts                  270       6,547,629     4.12             4.03
  Michigan                     1,076       9,883,640    10.89            10.98
  Minnesota                      365       5,303,925     6.88             6.76
  Mississippi                    475       2,967,297    16.01            16.05
  Missouri                       846       5,988,927    14.13            13.93
  Montana                        164         989,415    16.58            15.56
  Nebraska                       152       1,826,341     8.32             8.16
  Nevada                         395       2,700,551    14.63            14.49
  New Hampshire                  118       1,316,470     8.96             8.22
  New Jersey                     456       8,791,894     5.19             5.20
  New Mexico                     301       2,059,179    14.62            14.84
  New York                     1,011      19,378,102     5.22             5.07
  North Carolina               1,123       9,535,483    11.78            11.57
  North Dakota                    65         672,591     9.66             9.56
  Ohio                         1,148      11,536,504     9.95             9.95
  Oklahoma                       538       3,751,351    14.34            14.31
  Oregon                         458       3,831,074    11.95            11.33
  Pennsylvania                 1,307      12,702,379    10.29            10.11
  Rhode Island                    49       1,052,567     4.66             4.60
  South Carolina                 648       4,625,364    14.01            13.92
  South Dakota                    75         814,180     9.21             9.23
  Tennessee                      932       6,346,105    14.69            14.42
  Texas                        2,714      25,145,561    10.79            10.93
  Utah                           314       2,763,885    11.36            12.16
  Vermont                         70         625,741    11.19            10.21
  Virginia                       875       8,001,024    10.94            10.69
  Washington                     609       6,724,540     9.06             8.92
  West Virginia                  273       1,852,994    14.73            14.23
  Wisconsin                      501       5,686,986     8.81             8.57
  Wyoming                         92         563,626    16.32            15.54
  Total                       31,672     308,745,538    10.26

Now, take just homicide - the one thing that reasonable people care about -

 2010, United States
[B][U]Homicide[/U] Firearm Deaths and Rates[/B] per 100,000
All Races, Both Sexes, All Ages
ICD-10 Codes: X93-X95, *U01.4


                           Number of                    Crude     Age-Adjusted
  State                       Deaths      Population     Rate           Rate**

  Alabama                        283       4,779,736     5.92             5.97
  Alaska                          30         710,231     4.22             4.17
  Arizona                        271       6,392,017     4.24             4.36
  Arkansas                       132       2,915,918     4.53             4.68
  California                   1,342      37,253,956     3.60             3.47
  Colorado                        97       5,029,196     1.93             1.90
  Connecticut                     98       3,574,097     2.74             2.91
  Delaware                        45         897,934     5.01             5.12
  District of Columbia            84         601,723    13.96            12.14
  Florida                        767      18,801,310     4.08             4.31
  Georgia                        443       9,687,653     4.57             4.52
  Hawaii                         ---       1,360,301      ---              ---
  Idaho                          12*       1,567,582    0.77*            0.81*
  Illinois                       577      12,830,632     4.50             4.50
  Indiana                        223       6,483,802     3.44             3.51
  Iowa                            34       3,046,355     1.12             1.15
  Kansas                          68       2,853,118     2.38             2.42
  Kentucky                       125       4,339,367     2.88             2.95
  Louisiana                      432       4,533,372     9.53             9.58
  Maine                          13*       1,328,361    0.98*            1.05*
  Maryland                       306       5,773,552     5.30             5.41
  Massachusetts                  126       6,547,629     1.92             1.93
  Michigan                       440       9,883,640     4.45             4.72
  Minnesota                       65       5,303,925     1.23             1.23
  Mississippi                    205       2,967,297     6.91             7.10
  Missouri                       335       5,988,927     5.59             5.72
  Montana                        17*         989,415    1.72*            1.80*
  Nebraska                        41       1,826,341     2.24             2.32
  Nevada                          90       2,700,551     3.33             3.36
  New Hampshire                  ---       1,316,470      ---              ---
  New Jersey                     260       8,791,894     2.96             3.16
  New Mexico                      76       2,059,179     3.69             3.89
  New York                       527      19,378,102     2.72             2.69
  North Carolina                 376       9,535,483     3.94             3.95
  North Dakota                   ---         672,591      ---              ---
  Ohio                           396      11,536,504     3.43             3.62
  Oklahoma                       131       3,751,351     3.49             3.52
  Oregon                          60       3,831,074     1.57             1.57
  Pennsylvania                   501      12,702,379     3.94             4.13
  Rhode Island                   17*       1,052,567    1.62*            1.60*
  South Carolina                 229       4,625,364     4.95             5.07
  South Dakota                   ---         814,180      ---              ---
  Tennessee                      293       6,346,105     4.62             4.67
  Texas                          913      25,145,561     3.63             3.57
  Utah                            27       2,763,885     0.98             1.05
  Vermont                        ---         625,741      ---              ---
  Virginia                       271       8,001,024     3.39             3.37
  Washington                     114       6,724,540     1.70             1.72
  West Virginia                   47       1,852,994     2.54             2.72
  Wisconsin                      106       5,686,986     1.86             1.89
  Wyoming                        ---         563,626      ---              ---
  Total                       11,078     308,745,538     3.59

Let me repeat CA total next to CA homicide:

                           Number of                    Crude     Age-Adjusted
  State                       Deaths      Population     Rate           Rate**


  California                   2,935      37,253,956     7.88             7.70

  California                   1,342      37,253,956     3.60             3.47

This report appears to be yet another that includes suicides as a major component of gun deaths - but one that cannot be much influenced by gun laws.

I don't have the energy to do it, because they don't give a plain list of 'ranks' by what they consider 'strength of gun laws', but when Brady used to do this, it was fairly easy to plot actual rank in homicide/100,000 against 'law strength rank', and there was simply no correlation at all. Ever, in any year or set of years for which there was data.

ETA Dropped the Homicide rate data into excel - states are ranked, low to high
Utah
Iowa
Minnesota
Oregon
Washington
Wisconsin
Massachusetts
Colorado
Nebraska
Kansas
West Virginia
New York
Connecticut
Kentucky
New Jersey
Nevada
Virginia
Ohio
Indiana
Oklahoma
California - #21

You'll note a few states with considerably more reasonable (IMO) gun laws than California have lower firearm homicide rates.

ETA2 - sent a summary of this post to the SFGate author; unfortunately, I've actually met the man - a committed anti.

But if you'd like to register and repost this as a comment on the article, feel free.

 

[MachIVshooter]

This report appears to be yet another that includes suicides as a major component of gun deaths - but one that cannot be much influenced by gun laws.

Yup. Suicides account for roughly 2/3 of firearm deaths in this country in any given year. Will banning guns curtail suicides? Japan and China would suggest not, given that the two nations have total gun bans and suicide rates about twice that of the USA. We are lower than France, New Zealand and a lot of other developed nations with very tight gun controls.

Homicide and suicide rates trend independently of gun ownership. The only correlation is the implement used more frequently is the most effective implement available. Where firearms are heavily regulated, homicides and suicides occur mostly by alternate means, but the rates remain.