Davandron
Member
So we all know that this panic buying is an irrational, short term reaction in the market, but I began to wonder if there was any research done when this happened in 1994.
In the March 1999 issue of the Dept Of Justice research brief contains Impacts of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban: 1994–96 which includes market research.
It's a medium-length paper, covering a great deal of scientific findings. Might be a good read for lots of reasons.
In 2004, the same authors published An Updated Assessment of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban: Impacts on Gun Markets and Gun Violence, 1994-2003. This is a length research paper and appears to contain a great deal of information and scientific (not political) analysis.
In the market section:
Two interesting bits stuck out for me, first AR-15 prices.
As a young person hearing tales of "dollar-menu" SKS and AK rifles back-in-the-day, I assumed that prices on ARs had risen over the years. In fact, it sounds like AR-15s cost the same price in 2007 as they did in 1993! (The first paper says AR-15s were "$825–$1,325" in 1993) Since the price is still the same, if we adjust for inflation, that represents a 30% DROP in the "cost" of the AR-15 rifles over the years.
Bit number two: while large-capacity magazines (LCM) for rifles quickly dropped in price after the panic faded, magazines for handguns doubled in price and stayed there. I see people going crazy over rifle magazine prices, but as far as I've seen handgun magazine prices haven't shot up.
So, any thoughts and comments from the people who were buying in 1992 - 1996? Likewise, as other people read these papers I'd like to hear your thoughts and observations on the market reactions.
Edit to attach graph of prices
In the March 1999 issue of the Dept Of Justice research brief contains Impacts of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban: 1994–96 which includes market research.
Primary market prices of the banned guns and magazines rose by upwards of 50 percent during 1993 and 1994, while the ban was being debated in Congress. Gun distributors, dealers, and collectors speculated that the banned weapons would become expensive collectors’ items. However, prices fell sharply after the ban was implemented. Exhibit 4 shows price trends for a number of firearms. Prices for banned AR–15 rifles, exact copies, and legal substitutes at least doubled in the year preceding the ban, fell to near 1992 levels once the ban took effect, and remained at those levels at least through mid-1996.
It's a medium-length paper, covering a great deal of scientific findings. Might be a good read for lots of reasons.
In 2004, the same authors published An Updated Assessment of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban: Impacts on Gun Markets and Gun Violence, 1994-2003. This is a length research paper and appears to contain a great deal of information and scientific (not political) analysis.
In the market section:
Prices of assault weapons rose substantially around the time of the ban's enactment, reducing the availability of assault weapons to criminal users in the very short run. However, a surge in assault weapon production just before the ban caused prices to fall in the months following the ban.
Two interesting bits stuck out for me, first AR-15 prices.
Prices of ARs, on the other hand, remained steady during the late 1990s (after the speculative price bubble of 1994-1995) both in absolute terms and relative to other rifles. The failure of AR prices to rise in at least relative terms, as occurred for [Assault Pistols (AP)], and the temporary drop in production of AR-type rifles after the ban may signify that the AR market was saturated relative to the AP market for a least a number of years following the ban. However, demand for AR-type rifles later rebounded, as evidenced by the resurgence in production of legalized, AR-type rifles in the late 1990s. In fact, more of these guns were produced in 1999 than in 1994. Unlike AP users, therefore, rifle users appear to be readily substituting the legalized AR-type rifles for the banned ARs, which may be another factor that has kept prices of the latter rifles from rising. All of this suggests that rifle owners, who have a lower prevalence of criminal users than do handgun owners, can more easily substitute rifles with fewer or no military features for the hunting and other sporting purposes that predominate among rifle consumers.
As a young person hearing tales of "dollar-menu" SKS and AK rifles back-in-the-day, I assumed that prices on ARs had risen over the years. In fact, it sounds like AR-15s cost the same price in 2007 as they did in 1993! (The first paper says AR-15s were "$825–$1,325" in 1993) Since the price is still the same, if we adjust for inflation, that represents a 30% DROP in the "cost" of the AR-15 rifles over the years.
Bit number two: while large-capacity magazines (LCM) for rifles quickly dropped in price after the panic faded, magazines for handguns doubled in price and stayed there. I see people going crazy over rifle magazine prices, but as far as I've seen handgun magazine prices haven't shot up.
So, any thoughts and comments from the people who were buying in 1992 - 1996? Likewise, as other people read these papers I'd like to hear your thoughts and observations on the market reactions.
Edit to attach graph of prices