i know this isn't a 30-30 but during the cowboy years of my shooting career,,,i have seen two henry rifles do the detonation thing,,and they were loaded with RNFP bullets in 45 cal.,,,,one i was about 10 feet away from and it was in the hands of a good friend of mine
on both occasions the follower slipped from the hand while loading
when the magazine is full and the follower is put down on the loaded rounds it has about 4" to fall to the rounds,, well it is the spring that is forcing the follower down hard on the rounds
while that may be more forceful than a round being recoiled upon while loaded in a magazine,, they are flat nose bullets
the result of a detonation is really ugly,,,,,lucky for my bud he had a glove on his left hand,,,,it still took a few stitches,,,,rifle was a wreck,,he never fixed it,,said he would use it to remind him and to look at
there are a lot of guys using henry rifles in cowboy action shooting and have no trouble,, and they look cool too,,,,,but it only takes one time to screw things up
i guess it's kinda like a chain fire in a cap&ball revolver,,,,,once it starts,, there is no stopping it
does it happen alot? no,,, could it happen? yes,,,would it happen with pointy bullets???? i'm betting you wouldn't have to wait long on that one
my .02
ocharry