Prediction: McDonald v. Chicago

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8-1, Heller incorporated under due process, P&I scoffed at by 8 but with Thomas writing a concurring opinion based on P&I, perhaps peppered with some good stuff about racism and gun control if he's in the mood. Sotomayor dissents, based on her feeling as a latina, that guns are sort of icky, and writes an opinion so specious and intellectually dishonest that would embarrass even Stevens, though Breyer calls it "brilliant."

No further mention of scrutiny, no further explanation of Heller, justices gleefully wait until the next case bubbles up and forces them to decide something. They need to guarantee their future employment. Oh wait...
 
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I already posted this in another thread, but here goes:

My prediction:

A 5-4 opinion by Alito finds the Second Amendment is incorporated via the Due Process clause of the 14th Amendment. Thomas joins in the judgement only and writes a concurrence depending on the Privileges and Immunities clause for incorporation. No level of scrutiny is specified because (as in Heller) the majority finds a complete ban on a type of arms commonly used for self defense to be unconstitutional by any type of scrutiny.

Stevens writes for the minority that Chicago's handgun ban does not violate the Second Amendment because it allows the possession of other types of firearms for self defense. Breyer writes a separate concurrence saying that any type of gun ban is OK because guns kill people.

Richard Daley has a complete mental breakdown on national TV and actually does shove a rifle up a reporter's butt.

Addendum: because it is his last time to sit on the Court, Stevens reads his dissent from the bench.
 
My prediction?

A fire accidentally breaks out, revealing that all 9 justices, all 100 senators, all 547(?) congressmen, and the president are now, and have always been killer cyborgs from the future that rotate between holding office and getting their biological cover updated.

That means that somewhere, the Ted Kennedy chassis is sitting in a tank of goo.
 
Cyborgs? I'm betting they'r Crab People!

CrabPeople_Left_4_Dead_Teletubbie_mod-s500x375-22490-580.jpg
 
My Prediction(s):

Paul Helmke will have a reference in his Blog on Monday to Sammy "Machine Gun" Alito.

Paul Helmke will have in his Blog on Tuesday all of the reasons why, despite losing big time in McDonald, "common sense gun control" really won.

Dennis Hennigan will again leave out the word "people" on the steps of SCOTUS as he is fuming in front of reporters.

The NRA will try to mend fences with Gura by putting his firm on a permanent retainer, giving him one of them nifty replica muskets and providing him with a lifetime membership.

The Joyce Foundation will quietly close many of its "grass roots" anti gun groups which have a total membership of 4.

AHSA will not say a word because they have not said a word for months.

The NRA will ask its members for even more donations to cover the legal fees anticipated in the months ahead.

I will have a party Monday evening and will drink too much single malt scotch.
 
I'm still holding out for P & I because one must first be in possession of something to be deprived of it. Since the RKBA and the amendment that protects it regard only our simple and benign possession of inert objects. It's not like speech, exercising our religions, being tried, punished, searched, or forced to quarter soldiers.

Woody
 
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I think an 8-1 decision would be nice, but that sounds too optimistic.


However, since Heller was already decided I can see it being more then 5-4.




I just don't know though.
 
5-4, along the exact same lines as Heller, with similar rationale. Not going too far so as to keep the 5-4 win for McDonald.
 
ConstitutionCowboy said:
I'm still holding out for P & I because one must first be in possession of something to be deprived of it. Since the RKBA and the amendment that protects it regard only our simple and benign possession of inert objects. It's not like speech, exercising our religions, being tried, punished, searched, or forced to quarter soldiers.

Woody
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I agree, completely.

Due Process is way too weak for the 2nd Amendment. It makes it sound like local governments can create infringing laws, but if you're will to spend time/money/jail time, then the law might be overturned.

Privileges Or Immunities says the local governments can't even consider making the infringing law.
 
This is one of the most entertaining threads in a while

Armed Bear-good stuff. Every post made me laugh.
crab people, crab people...

the Ted Kennedy chassis is sitting in a tank of goo
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wasn't it always?

Anyway, I'm with the crew saying it will be EXACTLY the same as Heller, which is to say 5-4, clear as mud, and leaving the need for another dozen lawsuits to actually restore some of our rights. On the bright side, Daley will probably pop a neck vein.

One more prediction; Chi-town will happily allow handgun ownership, so long as you pay the $1000 registration fee and go through the 3-month safety course/psych evaluation.
 
I will have a party Monday evening and will drink too much single malt scotch.
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What's your pleasure?

I have to decide what's appropriate. For pure symbolism, I'm thinking the Aberlour I have in the cabinet: double-barreled with smoke...:D
 
5-4 along prior lines.

But we'll never know 'cause somebody is gonna pull the fire alarm just before it is handed down causing everyone to have to evacuate the building so we'll have to wait until the next session to hear the decision. :mad:


:D
 
I see it along the same lines as Heller, but even less clear as to what "reasonable restrictions" means.
I see the demilitirized free fire zone known as Chicago imposing such outragous fees and restrictions that within a month another suit is brought against them, which will (2 years from now) force the SCOTUS to actually make a clear decision...
 
I am betting that as in the Heller case, the court will rule in favor of McDonald, but will make the ruling equally narrow and full of loopholes. They will likely include the legitimacy of "reasonable restrictions" so that the real issues have to be duked out for years in lower courts. I believe this case will be helpful in the long run, but will not work any miracles within the visible horizon.
 
lilguy said:
And if it becomes a privilege instead of a right, what then?
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The RKBA has always been a right, and that wouldn't change. Incorporation under the Privileges or Immunities clause would therefore be as an immunity from state infringement. It won't happen, though, at least not at present because this part of the 14th Amendment is still in a coma, so to speak, from the Slaughter-House cases. Actually, in theory the Privileges or Immunities clause should have automatically incorporated all of the rights of US citizens, but that was summarily shot down by SCOTUS early on.

That's when selective incorporation through the Due Process clause was introduced as a pragmatic way to serve a similar function over time. Originally the Due Process clause was to only cover procedural due process because what is now known as substantive due process (protecting our rights as US citizens from the states) was unnecessary at the time, but with the Privileges or Immunities clause rendered ineffectual, it was necessary to use a broader (and valid, in my opinion, although it remains somewhat controversial) interpretation of the Due Process clause. Some folks would like for SCOTUS to revive the Privileges or Immunities clause, but it's been buried alive under so much case history (including selective incorporation, which it would supersede) that this may never happen. Some want to use it for selective incorporation because it may be a stronger protection than due process, but that's not going to happen, either, at least this time (it would be too bold a move for SCOTUS anyway, given the general controversy surrounding firearms).
 
McDonald will win and most gun owners will be terribly disappointed because the decision appears to be so narrow. The Court will decide nothing but incorporation because that is the only question presented in McDonald.

The parties to McDonald set aside everything but incorporation to fast-track that question to SCOTUS. There was no District Court trial on the merits of the Chicago laws. SCOTUS will not opine on the Chicago laws because there is no trial record to work from. SCOTUS will rule on the incorporation question and will remand McDonald to the District Court for trial.

Reaching the incorporation conclusion requires SCOTUS to determine that the RKBA is a fundamental right that is “implicit in the concept of ordered liberty.” Such fundamental rights are usually subject to strict scrutiny, or at the very least, heightened scrutiny. Even if the McDonald decision does not specifically address the level of scrutiny, it will position the RKBA favorably within the realm of existing precedents on scrutiny.
 
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Reaching the incorporation conclusion requires SCOTUS to determine that the RKBA is a fundamental right that is “implicit in the concept of ordered liberty.”
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That's funny. I thought the Second Amendment already did that.

I guess we'll have to wait 'till tomorrow, won't we!

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[size=+5]I CAN'T TAKE THE PRESSURE !!!!!!!!![/SIZE]

[size=-5]I think I just wet myself ...[/size]

Woody
 
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