Recent NFA check delays increasing?

[Aaron Baker]

Yes, but the delays aren't an artificial timespan created by the ATF. They're a result of the number of applications being submitted.

The reason that the wait is at 15 months (if it really is--that's obviously an estimate) is that a lot more people are submitting forms right now. If the really long estimated wait times cause people to stop submitting forms, then the wait times will drop back down.

I don't doubt that there's a "sweet spot" for wait times that people will put up with, and the market will correct itself until we hit that spot. I just don't know what that is in absolute terms, but in relative terms, it's the amount of time that an average buyer is willing to wait for a stamp. Or perhaps more accurately, it's the amount of time just less than the amount of time that will cause the average buyer to decide NOT to submit a form.

If new trust requirements and long wait times cause people to stop submitting forms, then wait times will drop and that's good for those of us who are going to submit forms either way. But it's bad for the NFA "community" as a whole.

Aaron

 

[AlexanderA]

Any sort of reasonable business or government agency would increase staffing to take care of an increased flow of applications. The fact that the ATF is not increasing staffing to the levels needed tells me that a decision was reached at the highest levels to let NFA transactions wither on the vine. The Administration has to be well aware of the economic consequences of unreasonable waits. That, combined with the proposed CLEO bottleneck, means that their strategy is to eliminate the NFA world in practice rather than legally.

 

[Aaron Baker]

Of course we're just speculating, but I don't necessarily agree. The ATF's NFA branch probably has a fixed budget. More applications doesn't mean more money.

Businesses and government agencies aren't run the same. (Maybe they should be, but they aren't.) If this was a more popular service and more people would complain, or more politically connected people would complain, then I can see staff being expanded, but NFA Branch is a pretty small government branch affecting a small number of "customers."

With that said, I understand that they did hire more staff sometime in the last year or so. But applications are just outpacing their ability to hire staff.

Aaron