Rethinking the robbery scenario strategy

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As is often the case, there's more than just one aspect of this to consider.

From a legal standpoint, a robber pointing a gun at you is almost certainly going to provide justification for the use of deadly force. In other words, if you do end up having to use deadly force, the fact that a robber pointed a gun at you would be enough to satisfy a judge or jury that you were legitimately in fear of being killed or seriously injured.

From a survival standpoint, reacting immediately with deadly force to a gun pointed at you won't always be the best strategy. As has been pointed out, outside of military actions or premeditated murder, guns are more often used to intimidate/coerce/deter than to kill or injure. Taking the blanket approach, by responding with deadly force to any pointed gun, could actually reduce your chances of surviving/remaining uninjured. You'll have to assess the circumstances of the situation to determine what you feel makes the most sense, but you don't want to stop thinking and begin an automatic/reflex type response just because you see the muzzle of a gun. It's easy for us to assume that once we make the decision to draw and fire that it's all going to be clear sailing, but the outcome for defenders isn't always positive--they aren't bullet proof superheroes. If it looks very likely that an armed robbery can be resolved without shooting, then not shooting is probably the safest strategy from a survival standpoint. When the shooting starts, there are no guarantees that all the bullets will end up in the bad guy. Defenders (or bystanders) can also end up seriously injured or killed.

John nailed it. There have been 2 separate issues conflated together.

When a gun is pointed at you, legally, they have demonstrated intent to put you in fear for your life and you have the right to act in self-defense.

However, from a survival standpoint, if they will be happy with your wallet and leave, give them the wallet. If they just popped a dude next to you...fight! If it is in between those 2, make your best decision as it goes and be ready to act in an instant.

Drawing on an already drawn gun is a bad deal, but how many people train gun disarms and/or to strike someone holding a gun successfully (while clearing the field of fire) or strike and draw/shoot from retention?
 
Would you agree that the true understanding of that intent comes always after the act? While occurring, a gun pointed is intent to kill.
No, I would say just the opposite is usually the case...intent is formed before the act.

The most common criminal intent is to intimidate and gain compliance. For most people, they never imagine that they'll have to use the gun to actually kill another person
 
Someone pointing a gun at people during a robbery may only be the preamble. You can't obtain info on hidden assets from a dead person, so they may only be leaving people alive until they get what they want.

When a robber starts marching you to the back of the store, it's time to react, whatever the situation.
 
Just because you're justified to shoot doesn't mean that it's the best course of action, but that's a decision that can only be made when faced with it. Either choice may have far reaching and possibly unintended consequences.
 
There are obviously too many variables involved to give a set answer, but in general, I believe armed robberies where people don't get shot to still be the most common (by far), so I'd likely bet the odds and avoid an armed engagement unless pressed into a corner. If the guy starts shooting or makes it obvious he's about to... sure... then it's on. But I'm not going to risk everyone else's life in the place (which would be what a gunfight would do) unless it appears to be absolutely necessary. Chances are, he'll get the money and go.

As very-well-said by Sam1911 above, if it's a total ambush then there isn't much you're going to be able to do about it one way or the other. So that point is essentially moot.

If I had a 'sure shot' and the situation granted me the necessary legal authority (meaning it was necessary for the immediate defense of life), then I wouldn't hesitate to drop the guy ASAP. But I can't imagine there are very many 'sure shot' scenarios in real street robberies, and even if there were, they probably wouldn't be nearly as 'sure' once you added in the effect of extreme stress.
 
Just because you're justified to shoot doesn't mean that it's the best course of action, but that's a decision that can only be made when faced with it. Either choice may have far reaching and possibly unintended consequences.
Absolutely!
 
There are obviously too many variables involved to give a set answer, but in general, I believe armed robberies where people don't get shot to still be the most common (by far), so I'd likely bet the odds and avoid an armed engagement unless pressed into a corner. If the guy starts shooting or makes it obvious he's about to... sure... then it's on. But I'm not going to risk everyone else's life in the place (which would be what a gunfight would do) unless it appears to be absolutely necessary. Chances are, he'll get the money and go.

As very-well-said by Sam1911 above, if it's a total ambush then there isn't much you're going to be able to do about it one way or the other. So that point is essentially moot.

If I had a 'sure shot' and the situation granted me the necessary legal authority (meaning it was necessary for the immediate defense of life), then I wouldn't hesitate to drop the guy ASAP. But I can't imagine there are very many 'sure shot' scenarios in real street robberies, and even if there were, they probably wouldn't be nearly as 'sure' once you added in the effect of extreme stress.
All excellent points, in my opinion.
 
Quote: "I believe armed robberies where people don't get shot to still be the most common (by far), so I'd likely bet the odds and avoid an armed engagement unless pressed into a corner".

Key words here are "Armed Robbery". So you would wait and "Bet The Odds" or wait to hear the click of his trigger to find out...............Absolutely Ridiculous....IMO.
I knew a store owner years back who was killed in a robbery by 3 men and he wasn't armed at the time. To make matters worse it was closing time, Christmas Eve and he was on the phone with his wife who heard the shots.

Sometimes they don't conform to marching you to the back or the bathroom....they just shoot you right there.

Keep Waitin'......
 
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As said, if you're flat out "shot right there" it probably doesn't matter what you think you would have planned to do. Being ambushed is often very hard to counter, and in that moment closer to impossible.

Sure, if they simply go to guns and you somehow have time to react, your choice is pretty simple.

Most -- by far most -- robbers don't operate that way and don't actually use lethal force unless pressed to. Other actions may give you hover survival chances that grabbing your iron.
 
Quote: "by far most -- robbers don't operate that way and don't actually use lethal force unless pressed to".
Really.....maybe in your neck of the woods of Pa. ......spent over 20 years working in Newark NJ.....not this boy....way too many armed robberies and dead good Samaritans........My Model 36 saved my arse twice in the time I was there.....I chose to fight ....not "Play the Odds" as suggested......sorry, just ridiculous, IMO....that's how I survived over 20 yrs. in that hell hole of a city.....you fellas are either kiddin', right....or have little actual life experience, speaking from opinion only.....OMG.
 
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If that's how you choose to pre-decide now about the best path to take in a situation that hasn't happened yet, that's certainly your right.

I don't agree that going to guns immediately is always going to be the surest path to survival.
 
Quote: Street Robberies and You
"Keep in mind many petty thieves, auto burglars, residential and commercial burglars, paper thieves, and hustlers will get to that point and decide not to become armed robbers. Most will. It is a special group of outliers who decide threatening to kill people for a few dollars is the way to go".

"Once a man starts armed robbing he has crossed a line most won't. Don't forget that when you are looking these bastards in the eye. Their decision to kill you is already made. Your life means nothing to him. Only his does. His sole motivation for not killing you is he doesn't want a murder case. He has already accepted he may pick one up though."

"And If a guy is coming at you with a gun in his hand shoot him. Shoot him right then. If you don't shoot first you may not shoot at all. I have known more than one person who was shot and received life changing injuries and also shot their attacker. Their only regret was not shooting sooner. Like Bill Jordan said "Nothing disturbs your enemy's aim like a slug delivered to the belt buckle area".


Keep Waitin'............
 
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Their decision to kill you is already made.
The anonymous author is trying to make a point. His point may be dramatic but it is incorrect. It is easy to prove that many armed robbers have made no decision to kill their victims because they aren't carrying a weapon that could kill--or maybe they're not carrying a weapon at all. It's fairly common for armed robbers to carry BB guns or even to just claim that they have a weapon when they actually don't.

If what the anonymous author wrote was correct, we would never hear of armed robbers leaving victims alive if they didn't get what they came for. In fact, it's easy to find cases where that happens.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/b...kland-park-failed-robbery-20160420-story.html
https://mcdonaldscrime.wordpress.co...yields-old-cellphone-and-no-money-for-crooks/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-24/developing-armed-robbery-zurich-bank-possible-hostages
http://www.thedaily.sk/former-policeman-could-face-12-years-for-failed-armed-robbery/
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crim...gun-in-failed-betting-shop-raid-a3268201.html
https://www.mdcoastdispatch.com/2012/02/16/3-failed-robberies-in-11-minutes/

Obviously you have strong feelings on the matter, but they do not align with the facts. It is, in fact, a rare armed robber who decides to kill his victim before he begins the crime--or who EVER decides to kill his victim.

As for the odds, in Chicago, in 2011, there were 36 fatalities as the result of 12,408 armed robberies. That means if you were the victim of an armed robbery in Chicago, in 2011, your chances of surviving were 99.71%--there was only one fatality for every 344 armed robberies. I wouldn't voluntarily go into a situation like that, but those are much better odds than one would expect to have in a gunfight.
 
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Thanks for the reading material, but I read that on Arfcom years ago. And unless you are BurnedOutLEO on Arfcom, you should probably make it clear that you're posting someone else's material.
So your gonna wait and see if it's a BB gun.........can't believe what I'm reading here. Gotta go, this is Nutz.
Nope, I'm going to make a decision based on the circumstances of the situation I find myself in. That's not crazy, it's the exact opposite.

What is crazy is deciding ahead of time what one will do in a complicated situation before having all the information. And that's what I'm not going to do.
 
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"And If a guy is coming at you with a gun in his hand shoot him. Shoot him right then. If you don't shoot first you may not shoot at all. I have known more than one person who was shot and received life changing injuries and also shot their attacker. Their only regret was not shooting sooner. Like Bill Jordan said "Nothing disturbs your enemy's aim like a slug delivered to the belt buckle area".
That's tough talk! But it borders on the idiotic. If a man is coming toward me with gun in hand and I have not yet drawn, he will likely be able to shoot me before I can shoot him. And if I can shoot him first, that may cause him to shoot me, when he may not otherwise have done so.

Most of us are just not quick enough, and our guns do not stop people instantly.
 
you should probably make it clear that you're posting someone else's material.
And it's gone.

Yes, if someone wants to post material from another source, they need to make that clear, as well as following the rules about posting material like that.
 
Quote: "by far most -- robbers don't operate that way and don't actually use lethal force unless pressed to".
Really.....maybe in your neck of the woods of Pa. ......spent over 20 years working in Newark NJ.....not this boy....way too many armed robberies and dead good Samaritans........My Model 36 saved my arse twice in the time I was there.....I chose to fight ....not "Play the Odds" as suggested......sorry, just ridiculous, IMO....that's how I survived over 20 yrs. in that hell hole of a city.....you fellas are either kiddin', right....or have little actual life experience, speaking from opinion only.....OMG.

So just to be clear... are you're saying you've legally shot your way out of trouble twice in your life while living in NJ?
 
Quote: "I believe armed robberies where people don't get shot to still be the most common (by far), so I'd likely bet the odds and avoid an armed engagement unless pressed into a corner".

Key words here are "Armed Robbery". So you would wait and "Bet The Odds" or wait to hear the click of his trigger to find out...............Absolutely Ridiculous....IMO.
I knew a store owner years back who was killed in a robbery by 3 men and he wasn't armed at the time. To make matters worse it was closing time, Christmas Eve and he was on the phone with his wife who heard the shots.

Sometimes they don't conform to marching you to the back or the bathroom....they just shoot you right there.

Keep Waitin'......

You don't really get how statistics work, do you? Those are the numbers you use when you start wondering if your personal experience - or the stories that stick in your head - are representative of what really goes on in the world around you. Like when you hear a story about a store owner being killed, and start thinking that most robberies end that way. Then you do the math and realize... no, most robberies don't end in death. By a very large margin.

I'd think that someone who supposedly saved their life twice with a gun would know a few things that you don't seem to get. Like how hard it is to actually hit your target under stress, or how bad guys rarely just drop dead like in the movies, or how innocent people get shot all the time in gunfights they were unwillingly forced into the middle of.
 
Several posts in this thread use the rationale that since most armed robberies (or 99.71% of armed robberies in Chicago in 2011 per JohnKSa) don't result in a murder, then you can conclude that your bad guy is probably not a real threat of killing you, or causing you great bodily harm. Give him what he wants, and you'll probably be OK. This is especially important if you're facing an already-drawn gun. Therefore, fighting an armed robber isn't reasonable.

I've heard mothers of armed robbers who have been killed by defenders make statements like: "He was a good kid...he wouldn't have hurt nobody" or "That guy with the gun shouldn't have shot my baby! HE should be locked up!".

Many of us might be repulsed by such statements. However, can we see that what they are really demanding is for victims to "play the percentages" like so many comments in this thread have suggested? Is this "play the percentages approach" really reasonable in your minds?

The rationale that civil society expects defenders to adhere to is the AOJ triad. Is Ability, Opportunity, and Jeopardy present....not "what's the likelihood"...?
 
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However, can we see that what she is really demanding is for victims to "play the percentages" like so many comments in this thread have suggested? Is this "play the percentages approach" really reasonable in your minds?
Sorry, but that's pure BS. What she's saying is that she wishes her son was alive and that she is sad because he is dead.

She's not demanding anything and, if she could be objective (which is probably virtually impossible when a mother is talking about the death of her child), she would realize that what happened was a reasonable outcome given the situation.

The fact that mothers get upset and emotional when their children are shot and tend to make negative statements about those who shoot them, has no bearing at all on whether it is legally justifiable to shoot an armed robber. It also has no bearing at all on whether the use of deadly force is the best survival strategy against armed robbers. Those things are all totally unrelated.
The rationale that civil society expects defenders to adhere to is the AOJ triad. Is Ability, Opportunity, and Jeopardy present....not "what's the likelihood"...?
This is mixing two important concepts.

It is certainly true that armed robbery, in and of itself, is generally considered to be JUSTIFICATION for the use of deadly force.

However, that fact has no bearing on whether or not deadly force is the best option for SURVIVAL in an armed robbery.

The fact that legal justification exists doesn't automatically make deadly force the best option for survival. In some cases it may be, but in other cases, the circumstances of the situation may make compliance a better survival strategy.

It's a HUGE mistake to assume that just because deadly force is justified in a particular situation that one should switch off the decision making process at that point and start shooting. Just because you won't go to jail if you shoot doesn't automatically mean that shooting offers you the best chance of coming out of the situation alive.
Several posts in this thread use the rationale that since most armed robberies (or 99.71% of armed robberies in Chicago in 2011 per JohnKSa) don't result in a murder, then you can conclude that your bad guy is probably not a real threat of killing you, or causing you great bodily harm. Give him what he wants, and you'll probably be OK. This is especially important if you're facing an already-drawn gun. Therefore, fighting an armed robber isn't reasonable.
I suppose everyone looks at things slightly differently, but I can tell you that's not the conclusion I would draw.

The point of the statistic isn't that you can use it to make the determination ahead of time that fighting an armed robber isn't reasonable, it's to provide a better understanding of reality. This will help you make your decision based on the circumstances you face rather than basing your actions on misconceptions stemming from a skewed idea of reality, or basing your actions on panic generated by the unrealistic idea that you're almost certainly going to die unless you start shooting.

Your bad guy IS a real threat and could very well end up taking your life, but it's important to understand that, by far, the most likely outcome is that you won't die as the result of an armed robbery--even if you are in one. That doesn't mean you should relax and assume you're home free, but it does mean you shouldn't feel like your only reasonable course of action in an armed robber is to start a gunfight and hope you win.
 
The fact that legal justification exists doesn't automatically make deadly force the best option for survival. In some cases it may be, but in other cases, the circumstances of the situation may make compliance a better survival strategy.

It's a HUGE mistake to assume that just because deadly force is justified in a particular situation that one should switch off the decision making process at that point and start shooting. Just because you won't go to jail if you shoot doesn't automatically mean that shooting offers you the best chance of coming out of the situation alive.

Is there anywhere in this discussion that I suggested any of these ideas? Please don't attribute any of them to me.


Your bad guy IS a real threat and could very well end up taking your life, but it's important to understand that, by far, the most likely outcome is that you won't die as the result of an armed robbery--even if you are in one.

This statement, however, is core to my point. Can you describe, exactly, why you believe that is it important to understand that you're unlikely to die as the result of an armed robbery? Maybe you really are unlikely to die, but why does this really matter? Are you just trying to encourage people to better evaluate the risk/reward ratio of responding?
 
Several posts in this thread use the rationale that since most armed robberies (or 99.71% of armed robberies in Chicago in 2011 per JohnKSa) don't result in a murder, then you can conclude that your bad guy is probably not a real threat of killing you, or causing you great bodily harm. Give him what he wants, and you'll probably be OK. This is especially important if you're facing an already-drawn gun. Therefore, fighting an armed robber isn't reasonable.
I would never conclude that an armed robber does not pose a serious threat of harming me, and of course that should he do so, I might die.

That does not mean that I would try to draw and shoot, unless (1) I felt quite confident that I would succeed-- succeed not only in getting shots on target timely, but also in stopping him before he harms me; and (2) I believed that he would shoot or stab even if I complied with his demands.

Is this "play the percentages approach" really reasonable in your minds?
No matter what the defender tries to do, he or she will be "playing th percentages". How likely is it that the robber will resort to the actual use of deadly force, vs how likely is it that the defender would be able to effectively stop the robber timely. The defender may get three shots into the robber before the robber fires, and the robber may still start shooing.

The rationale that civil society expects defenders to adhere to is the AOJ triad. Is Ability, Opportunity, and Jeopardy present....not "what's the likelihood"...
NO! That pertains solely to the justification of the use of deadly force. It has nothing at all to do with surviving the encounter.

And don't forget the fourth leg of the table: preclusion.
 
Is there anywhere in this discussion that I suggested any of these ideas?
Mixing the concept of legal justification into a discussion about strategy and tactics can tend to conflate the one with the other and that can cause confusion. It is very important to understand that even when the legal justification for the use of deadly force is satisfied, it's still a mistake to assume that it is automatically the best survival strategy. So I pointed out the issue to help clarify the situation and eliminate any possible confusion.
Can you describe, exactly, why you believe that is it important to understand that you're unlikely to die as the result of an armed robbery?
Not only can I, I already have. However, it is an important concept so I will try again.

Imagine a person in a high-stress situation where they believe they are very likely to die, even though the reality is that they are actually very likely to survive. Now let's force this persion to make a decision about how best to deal with the situation. Do you think that the resulting decision is likely to be correct or will it likely be badly flawed?

It is quite easy to understand that a person is more likely to make a good decision when they understand reality and can form a strategy based on facts and on the circumstances of the situation, instead of on misconceptions.
Maybe you really are unlikely to die, but why does this really matter?
It matters because making the right decision (whether that is shooting or complying) could be the difference between living or dying. It matters because when you have to make a critical, life or death decision, it's always better to do so based on facts and on reality rather than on misconceptions.
Are you just trying to encourage people to better evaluate the risk/reward ratio of responding?
I'm trying to encourage people to make critical life and death decisions based on the circumstances of the situation and based on an accurate understanding of reality.
 
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