Right to carry arms reduces crime?
Nope, that is a myth. It sounds good and seems like it would make sense.
People like to think crime went down because of concealed carry, but that isn't the case. There is no causation. Texas is a great example. In 2006 in Texas Commissioner Jerry Patterson published a nice article talking about how Texas CHL's lowered the crime rate in Texas. He was, after all, the senior author on the bill for granting CHLs and it had been a decade of dropping crime rates in Texas since CHL went into effect in 1996. Cool, right? Stats prove it works.
What the Commissioner failed to note was the effect on the time/space continuum and failed to tell people was concealed carry's effect on crime was retroactive and dropped the crime rate in the years leading up to 1996 as well when Texas CHL went into effect. Apparently the notion of the bill was so powerful, crime in Texas started dropping in the previous decade, wavering back and forth a bit, then started its downward fall in 1992. But this just proves that pro-gun legislation and activities now can have such a powerful effect as to affect crime levels backward through time!!!!
Clear evidence that Texas CHLs reduce crime was so effective that when it went into effect in 1996, not only did the crime rate drop in Texas, but there was a national ripple effect that carried over to MA, CA, NY, and ME for several years(from Uniform FBI Crime Reports found online for each state). That is right, statistics have proven that since the implementation of Texas CHL, the crime rates dropped in decidedly anti-gun states as well.
Florida is often shown as a leader in concealed carry legislation and the success of their reduction in crime is noted time and time again, right?
It is like the example I noted above about Texas getting its CHLs. It scared off the criminal element so badly that is caused crime to drop a couple years prior to the inception of the CHL program and even cause crime to drop in states where concealed carry either wasn't allowed or was highly restricted were more than 1000 miles distant!!
In other words, something else was going on at the time to cause crime rates to go down that had NOTHING to do with the CHL program.
People like to point out Florida as a great example of where the violent crime rate went down the year their concealed carry program went into effect...as if criminals all of a sudden realized that everyone became magically armed. Strangely, the crime rate in Florida went up in the following three years after that! So much for guns reducing crime.
http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/content/...FSAC-Home.aspx
Here is the violent crime data. Inception was 1987.
Year// Total Violent Crime// Volume % Change// Total Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 Population// % Change
1971 38,572 0.0 547.80 0.0
1972 40,248 4.3 540.90 -1.3
1973 46,430 15.4 591.80 9.4
1974 54,852 18.1 665.00 12.4
1975 57,663 5.1 679.60 2.2
1976 54,543 -5.4 637.80 -6.2
1977 57,916 6.2 664.40 4.2
1978 65,784 13.6 733.60 10.4
1979 73,866 12.3 799.00 8.9
1980 94,068 27.3 982.00 23.0
1981 98,090 4.3 971.40 -1.10
1982 93,406 -4.8 900.30 -7.3
1983 88,298 -5.5 833.70 -7.4
1984 95,368 8.0 872.50 4.7
1985 106,980 12.2 948.50 8.7
1986 120,977 13.1 1,037.70 9.4
1987 123,030 1.7 1,021.50 -1.6
1988 138,343 12.4 1,114.10 9.1
1989 145,473 5.2 1,136.70 2.0
1990 160,554 10.4 1,220.90 7.4
1991 158,181 -1.5 1,198.70 -1.8
1992 161,137 1.9 1,200.30 0.08
1993 161,789 0.4 1,188.90 0.9
1994 157,835 -2.4 1,137.20 -4.3
1995 150,208 -4.8 1,061.60 -6.6
1996 151,350 0.8 1050.20 -1.1
The same holds for Texas in 1996. It is lauded as showing a remarkable drop in crime when CHLs were allowed, but then again, crime dropped in some 43 states in 1996, including some that did not have concealed carry or that were anti concealed carry. What does that tell you?
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/Cius_97/96CRIME/96crime2.pdf
It should tell you that something else is at work other than concealed carry.
The notion that concealed carry drops crimes rates, especially violent crime rates, is pretty silly. It is a lot of wishful thinking and rose colored glasses.
Concealed carry does not affect the overall crime rates or overall violent crime rates in an appreciable manner, or it hasn't so far. It does have a tremendous effect for those individuals who do carry and defend themselves however. That is where the real power of this comes into play and why folks carry.