Seems like we are in recession to me...

[chieftain]

There was an old saw about economics.

If your neighbor is out of work, it is a recession.

If you are out of work it is a depression.

RE: Election year economics.

I remember having dinner the Saturday night after Clinton had Beaten Bush I for the presidency in 1992.

Some guys at the table next to mine were commenting on how much improved the economy was in the 4 days since the election. At least that was what the media was telling us.

When the Republicans are in office, the economy is terrible, when the Dimocrats are in office, the economy is always great. No matter what the facts are.

Go figure.

Fred

 

[rickomatic]

Economic growth has slowed in the last year or so. However it has not reversed so this is not a recession. Members of a certain party seeking the Whitehouse want you to think it is though.

Prcisely! Depending on who gets elected the "recession" will either deepen or will magically disappear. Perception is reality. And the drive by media loves to foist it's reality on us daily.

On a side note. For those of you under 30 years old. We've been in an unprecedented period of growth for the past couple decades. Today's economy probably does seem bad to some of you. You've been "spoiled" by the economy in the past 25 years. Ask your folks about the Carter years. Or, ask your grandparents about the 30's. Then put that into perspective, comparing it to today's economy.

 

[Caimlas]

I can't speak for gun sales, but I've noticed both gun prices and ammo prices go through the roof. The slowdown in sales might be due to that, I imagine.

Another thing I have noticed is the job market. It has slowed down substantially since early December, when I started looking for work. I lost my job January 4th, and about half way through January I started seeing drastically fewer new job postings, with a seemingly higher ratio of experienced/entry level positions.

So technically I think we've got about 4 months until it's officially considered a recession (something like 2 consecutive quarters of... something?), but as near as I can tell yes, we're in one.

 

[Caimlas]

Ask yourself this, too. If everyone, including the "news" told you we were in a recession and it was going to get worse, would you run out and make a "frivolous" purchase?

If I thought it'd turn into "something more than a recession" and I had the cash to do so, sure. Might be the last time I get to do something like that, or have the option of buying that specific product.

 

[boatbod]

I help manage a boatyard, and we've recently dropped down to a 4 day work week for the first time in 6-7 years. Not much work being done, and not much coming in. New boat sales have been dead since May 2007, and now it looks like nobody wants to play with what they've got. I guess the first thing people cut back on when "free money" goes away is their toys.

Don't know whether its a recession or not, but it sure looks like things are going to get worse before they get better.

 

[doc2rn]

I cant wait to get me a new repo'd whatever! I just love a good deal recession or no, W. sure put the national debt through the roof. Nafta has killed the middle class, and education has seen a 300% increase since I started 4 years ago. I haven't heard a peep out of Republicans except to make sure that the banks get their money out of student loans even if they declare bankruptcy. I live in a Red state, but I am voting Blue. Why? because I have not seen a bit of good in 8years come from an all Rep. Gov.

 

[TCB in TN]

Locally this time of year usually brings a lot of used guns onto the market. Billy Bob selling a couple of guns to pay off the credit cards from Christmas, etc. But this year there are just very few guns out there being sold. It doesn't seem like there are a lot of buyers either, but the # of guns that I usually see is just not there. It is a bit strange, but I don't know if it really means anything significant or not.

 

[bogie]

Things are going to be slow through the election. If Obama or Hillary gets in, you'll get a lot of TV stations marveling at how the economy turned right around.

Problem is that right now, it's just sort of a stasis.

 

[chieftain]

I cant wait to get me a new repo'd whatever! I just love a good deal recession or no, W. sure put the national debt through the roof. Nafta has killed the middle class, and education has seen a 300% increase since I started 4 years ago. I haven't heard a peep out of Republicans except to make sure that the banks get their money out of student loans even if they declare bankruptcy. I live in a Red state, but I am voting Blue. Why? because I have not seen a bit of good in 8years come from an all Rep. Gov.

There is no doubt that "W" and company sure screwed the pooch as to spending. On the other hand, they did get the tax breaks through.

The Dimocrats would never have done that. But they would have spent at least as much, if not more. Per History. The biggest spending screw up was the Medicare Drug program. The Dim's wanted it to be more expensive than the Rip's did. Duh!

Just try to think WHAT do you think the Dim's will do better than the Rip's?

Spend less?, lower taxes? Repeal NAFTA? If the school loans are not repaid, Do you really believe the banks will continue the loans at reasonable rates?

Oh and for the purposes of our discussion, please define Middle Class. Most folks idea of the middle class is much different from the Dim's. (Remember in many places a Nurse and Police officer couple will be making 150,000 to 250,000 per year or more.)

Some other results of voting Dim. Pulled out of Iraq/Afghanistan. Classic defeat snatched from the jaws of Victory. We WILL lose the RIGHT to bear arms. Even when pro gun dimocrats are elected, they will vote to place anti gun Supreme Courts judges in place and fight against pro gun Rip judges (noting that all Rip judges are not pro gun, but all of the Dim's judges are anti gun). That equals our loss of, or the loss of use of our guns.

Unfortunately the Rip's are the only game in town that comes close to what I want and feel I need.

If you don't like the guys running for office, find a guy you do like and help him run, or run yourself. Anyone can Do it. IF you are willing to work hard enough to make it happen. Most folks are not. Most people THINK they could never make it. So old Henry Ford's statement comes to mind:

Those who think they can, Can.

Those who think they can't, can't.

There you go. You empower you, or you don't. Do not blame the "system".

I used to pursue Politics professionally, I no longer do. But, it takes a drive, and work ethic that few folks have, and many would not want to.

Think about what policies of the Dim's will do to our country, and yourself. What is it exactly you don't like about the Rip's? What do you like about the Dim's?

If perfection is what you are looking for, you have the problem, not the Government. One must remember Democracy was intended to be sloppy and rather muddled. If efficient government is what you crave, you need to live in a Dictatorship. That is the most efficient form of government. Democracy will never be very efficient.

I believe Churchill said it best:

It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.--Sir Winston Churchill

Go figure.

Fred

 

[Just Jim]

My state has a system that background checks the sale of firearms. It covers dealers and gunshows. The system gives you a number that tells you it is ok for the sale (transaction number) I bought a BHP last monday and the number was 19473. That is how many guns have been sold in my state since the first of the year. Oregun

jj

In about a weeks time I sold a gun and the registry said 21468. Meaning in a week my state has sold in gun shows and stores 1995 guns and that is just public sales not private. Means money is still moving.

I do remember the good old days when Clinton was in. He scared people so bad with his gun controls that we had the highest sales numbers this nation has ever seen for guns. The prick did a good thing in a bad way.

jj

 

[ConfuseUs]

For starters guns are durable goods, so if the economy sours then people won't buy as many of them, nor will they shoot as much. In fact, the Wall Street Journal had a short blurb about slowing gun sales indicating that the economy is slowing down a week or two ago.

However, I think that that analysis is not totally on target since the gun market is mostly bifurcated between hunting rifles and shotguns, and handguns, EBRS, and tactical shotguns. I imagine that sales for hunting rifles and shotguns may have slowed for two reasons: The first is that the economy may be dragging down sales. The second reason sporting arm sales may have slowed is that potential buyers are reallocating their dollars into purchases of EBRs, handguns, magazines, and so on.

So the real questions to ask are
1) Are likely purchasers of firearms really spending less on firearms/accessories than before? If yes, then the economy may be affecting gun sales.
2) Is impending regulation distorting the gun market by motivating likely purchasers of guns to change their choices of purchase?
3) If the threat of legislation is both distorting the gun market and the spending patterns within it, do these distortions add up to a reduction in demand for durable goods that may indicate a recession?

 

[Caimlas]

As for an idea about why some of your local areas don't seem to have many used guns for sale, whereas in past years you have: it's possible that people have started to spend more responsibly, with the realization that hard times are ahead (we're going to have a socialist in the White House regardless of the party, and a Congress that simply doesn't know how to say "no" to spending, with an already high debt and unheard of level of annual deficit. They likely sold what they could last year, and haven't bought any/too many more in the last year to sell back.

Just a guess, at least.