It’s another Ammo thread, because I disagree with the cause for shortage.

[Old Hat]

I was gonna put this on the end of the other thread, but it was closed.

BTW, no offense, but what is the point of a firearms forum if you cannot discuss current firearms events, issues, problems...? I’m new, sure, but what is so offensive about a discussion of those issues? And what is a bigger issue to gun owners than no bullets?

But back to it....

The ammo shortage is due to Re-sellers, by a wide margin..black marketeers, in some cases, if you will.

Why not increased gun ownership, scared of riots, elections, and Democrat bans driving it?

Well, yes, it’s a contributing factor undoubtedly. But that is not driving this! I’ve been looking for months for reasonably priced stuff, for hunting seasons, and was way low in Spring. I don’t reload, because I really don’t shoot that much, outside of hunting practice and pistol defense. So... in all these long weeks and months I’ve talked to many sellers, distributors, wholesale sellers, looked at local FFL’s, and here’s what the largest sellers have all said:

A small handful of buyers are buying 90% of it religiously! One major distributor told me they sold 2 truckloads of 556 and 9mm in 10 min., to Eight.... count ‘em 8.... buyers. One guy spent over 10k on 556. He said new gun owners usually leave with 2 boxes, or a half case at most. He said, “No, it’s not hunters and average owners doing all this,” when I asked that question later. He said they get 1000 calls a day, because the average guy can’t get anything locally. I know first hand, of an instance of a small shop selling all their stock on Gunbroker, with none for their retail store, out of stock they say, all summer. 2 large distributors told me, “there is no shortage” it comes every week 3X, just like it always did, but I never see it for sale.? Why? Someone close... or employees, is buying it before it’s even listed.

So I called Federal. Federal says they are working 24/7 and shipping regularly. Now, Remington is down, I acknowledge that. But Federal was the biggest before, anyway.

Something else I’ve noticed...the timeline of all this, is the most compelling supporting argument for what I think happened. First, it was auto pistol calibers that stock ran out first, and as soon as Lucky and Dirt started cashing in with insane prices, it went fast and the dog whistle was blown.... but at that point, hunting rifle calibers were still very easy and even on sale, as was .22lr and shotgun shells. But after auto pistols went, then revolver calibers sold out quick, then it moved quickly to .22’s. The message was out about Gunbroker prices on 9mm and the gougers, in less than 1 week, as far as I could tell bought all the .22 bulk Everything.... in about a week or so, that you could get shipped online at regular prices.

2-3 more weeks passed and after .22lr was gone they moved to hp rifle. Now it’s largely gone. Then shotshells..... gone. And the shotshells, bird shot... makes NO sense! I have Never in my lifetime seen birdshot sold completely out of stores like it is now, and of course it’s gone up 20% when you find it. That’s unusual, as a guy who buys more shotshells than anything else yearly.

It’s mostly on Gunbroker. All forms of it. There are so many listings of ammo on GB that sellers have started putting little signed banners in their ads, to stand out from the crowd. Then there is flea markets.

So my question is this.... “What, makes anyone think this will get better anytime soon, when this isn’t really a supply vs. demand problem, as much as it is a market manipulation” ?

Market manipulations can last just as long as the gougers keep the inventory in retail at zero, at regular prices, in stores! It’s going to be big in the news when deer season comes around and lots of hunters can’t get ammo. Hunters usually buy right before the season, or a lot of them do, with Walmart selling pallets in the week leading up to. Not this year, and a good thing a box of rifle lasts years.

I really think this needs to be addressed in some way, by consumer protections, and ATF, because I see no reason that gangs wouldn’t also be involved if they can make money! And it certainly makes money.... 100-300% profit is a return on investment that stocks can’t get! If stockbrokers bought all the oil and raised it 200%, law steps in. Without states intervention in this manipulation, prices will be crazy for years, maybe. 22lr never returned to the 2cents/round it was before the last “short” on them! I hear people saying, demand is good for 2A in the long run...but it’s not! In countries like Australia where prices kept going up, people quit shooting, priced out. That only made it easier to erode the rights to own firearms.

At what point do we collectively start asking someone in power to aid in correcting this manipulated market by already existing laws about selling as a dealer without FFL, and market manipulation and fraudulent behaviors under consumer protection laws?

BTW, even Federal has taken notice. Their prices on all ammunition have jumped across the board, and I guess buying Remington has added to that.

 

[ms6852]

So my question is this.... “What, makes anyone think this will get better anytime soon, when this isn’t really a supply vs. demand problem, as much as it is a market manipulation” ?

This happened during the last administration too and the shortage lasted 8 years. Every payday I buy ammo that I do not reload for even if I do not shoot that caliber for months. During this times when people panic, instead of them buying their normal amount that they usually do for a range session, that amount is doubled or quadrupled. Now all of a sudden you multiply the demand by several million buyers buying more than their normal patterns would indicate, and the industry is faced with a huge demand and a large void.

I saw the demand drop and the supply settle back to normal where ammo was abundant and no limits placed with prices returning to near normal before the gouging, this too will pass, and hopefully those that remember will learn to stock up on a regular basis, instead of buying ammo only when they shoot once or twice a month for that session only.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

So not to be a jerk but I really don't understand this.

Every time somebody starts a discussion about the ammo shortage the moderators (usually Robert) close the thread and say look this topic is really getting old. Please quit starting discussions about it.

So what makes you special that you don't have to abide by the wishes of the people that own this forum and let you participate here for free?

 

[Old Hat]

So not to be a jerk but I really don't understand this.

Every time somebody starts a discussion about the ammo shortage the moderators (usually Robert) close the thread and say look this topic is really getting old. Please quit starting discussions about it.

So what makes you special that you don't have to abide by the wishes of the people that own this forum and what you participate here for free?

I only posted this because I am trying to question the argument that it’s supply vs. demand driven, and I thought I was offering an argument (anecdotal but honest and thoroughly surveyed) that would challenge what it seems most people believe true about the entire situation. And at the end, I would argue that it’s bad for 2A in the long run, very bad.

I started not to post it but I think it’s more important (causality) than society, 2A society, is currently thinking that it is.

And no, I’m not “special”.

Trunk monkey, are you a Mod? Just curious, because the way you put that question was quite sarcastic, actually.

I’m new here. I’m an older guy who had guns and was in the NRA before most non owners even knew what it was. I have avoided gun forums on the internet for this very reason. Every other thread it seems, someone has to get all crass or questioning my attitude or ethics. Covid has made me more isolated, so I broke down and joined, after belonging to other forums for years, and I gotta say,

I can talk politics with people who believe very differently from me, on sites with vigorous civil conversations, with less friction than I find on gun forums..... mostly over much ado about nothing.

I don’t know the mods. I’m not thumbing nose at them. I thought this was genuinely important as a concept. Small problems become bigger, even dominating a series of events sometimes in history. I like to consider the long view, the possibilities of cause and effect.

If I can’t have a polite, civil, and stimulating experience, or if that’s not what this is, I apologize.

 

[Old Hat]

This happened during the last administration too and the shortage lasted 8 years. Every payday I buy ammo that I do not reload for even if I do not shoot that caliber for months. During this times when people panic, instead of them buying their normal amount that they usually do for a range session, that amount is doubled or quadrupled. Now all of a sudden you multiply the demand by several million buyers buying more than their normal patterns would indicate, and the industry is faced with a huge demand and a large void.

I saw the demand drop and the supply settle back to normal where ammo was abundant and no limits placed with prices returning to near normal before the gouging, this too will pass, and hopefully those that remember will learn to stock up on a regular basis, instead of buying ammo only when they shoot once or twice a month for that session only.

Well, around me it took until the last couple Obama years for prices to get anywhere near pre-shortage on bullets, at least. So, for much of that time people I know didn’t buy in excess, waiting fir sales, often to find the “sale” stuff gone quick.

I know that sounds “cheap”, lol. And maybe it is, but there are a lot of people who absolutely will not pay .50/rnd for fmj. I won’t. Things go up, inflation, all that, but normal inflation is one thing. This kind of inflation drives people out. It’s currently 2X the price at least for any common caliber, retail. Resellers is 3,4,5x and more.

 

[Trunk Monkey]

I only posted this because I am trying to question the argument that it’s supply vs. demand driven, and I thought I was offering an argument (anecdotal but honest and thoroughly surveyed) that would challenge what it seems most people believe true about the entire situation. And at the end, I would argue that it’s bad for 2A in the long run, very bad.

I started not to post it but I think it’s more important (causality) than society, 2A society, is currently thinking that it is.

And no, I’m not “special”.

Trunk monkey, are you a Mod? Just curious, because the way you put that question was quite sarcastic, actually.

I’m new here. I’m an older guy who had guns and was in the NRA before most non owners even knew what it was. I have avoided gun forums on the internet for this very reason. Every other thread it seems, someone has to get all crass or questioning my attitude or ethics. Covid has made me more isolated, so I broke down and joined, after belonging to other forums for years, and I gotta say,

I can talk politics with people who believe very differently from me, on sites with vigorous civil conversations, with less friction than I find on gun forums..... mostly over much ado about nothing.

I don’t know the mods. I’m not thumbing nose at them. I thought this was genuinely important as a concept. Small problems become bigger, even dominating a series of events sometimes in history. I like to consider the long view, the possibilities of cause and effect.

If I can’t have a polite, civil, and stimulating experience, or if that’s not what this is, I apologize.

I asked my question I got my answer. Thank you for responding. I wasn't trying to be sarcastic I was genuinely trying to ask question without being a jerk about it. I understand it's kind of a jerkish question but that wasn't my intent.

I'm not a moderator I never claimed to be one I'm going to drop out of this discussion and I'm pretty sure they'll close it but I'm going to let that be their call.

 

[Old Hat]

No harm no foul. It’s all good.

If they want to close it, they have that right.

 

[readyeddy]

Supermarkets where I live place limits on sale items, usually five units, so that everyone can buy their share to eat economically. It’s a responsible practice to protect people and to create a large customer base.

Ammo sellers should take a similar approach or people will just give up on recreational shooting like I did. These days i shoot only air guns for practice and fun.

 

[Steve S.]

Pressure on supply for many reasons, not just one reason (blah, blah, blah). This thread will be closed - the Mods do not take kindly to being questioned.

 

[edwardware]

Yup, it's definitely the cabal of evil hoards, traveling to every LGS, in every town, every week, to scoop up all the supplies as they arrive, before you can get there. They can magically arrive at and depart from tens or hundreds of locations nearly simultaneously, like Snidely Whiplash with Santa Claus' violation of conservation of momentum.

That's definitely it!

My closest LGS receives, on average, 25 Sig 365s, 20 Glocks, a couple ARs, and 20ish cases of ammo every week. The Sigs are gone in 16-20 business hours, most of the Glocks never make it under glass, and the ARs aren't far behind. The ammo goes on sale Thursday at 1300; if you weren't in line by 1230, you probably don't get any.

He reports that the majority of his buyers didn't own a gun before February; he would know since he asks and does very affordable new shooter intro training for each newbie he can make time for.

This is a tiny 2000sf LGS, in a strip mall, in a safe, quiet, not-under-attack-by-the-Marxist redshirts, part of the South, one of 30+ in town.

But it's definitely the evil hoarder cabal's fault. . .

 

[danmc]

Some of the same guys each day at distribution centers maybe local gun store owners picking up for retail sales.

 

[Robert]

The problem with all the ammo threads, and we ran into it last time too, is that each one is a minor variation on the one before. Supply v Demand? That's an economics issue. Even when applied to ammo or firearms we are really just talking about the economy. Economics are not really on topic for THR.

The other issue is we have beat this horse until it has turned to goo. We have dozens, if not hundreds, of threads on the subject. All saying basically the same thing. If you buy more than you shoot you are a hoarder. If you sell for more than you paid you are a pirate. If we wouldn't buy so much, demand, then the supply would catch back up. And my personal favorite, it's all a big conspiracy between the gun companies and ammo manufacturers to take advantage of political unrest. Pretty sure that's just good business...

I get it, Staff gets it, times are strange and a lot of people are very nervous about what the next few months, or years, will bring. But the 500th iteration of why can't I find 9mm or 22 is not going to change anything. Trust me, my ammo reserves are well past red. I'm feeling the hurt too.

 

[Walkalong]

I was gonna put this on the end of the other thread, but it was closed.

That there is what some folks call a "clue".