Maybe there is something wrong with me, given my penchant for backing off a bit and looking at maps of the middle east and thinking of the chess games of international politics. Big Picture stuff.
We know that bin Laden was encouraged to go forward with the 9/11 deal because of our (in his eyes) cowardly retreat from Mogadishu. We're toothless tigers, afraid to lose any of our soldiers. So, I see a parallel in views of us on the part of any and all hostile elements in the middle east. If we leave Iraq, two things occur: We once again leave allies in the lurch, and we give cause to believe we have no will to follow whatever principles we've stated to have as policy.
This gives what I'll call "Jihadists" (to distinguish them from the other 90%+ of Islamics) tremendous power and influence of the various governments of the middle east. After all, they've proven they can make the cowardly Great Satan run away in disgrace. The Jihadists could even rise to power and total control of numerous countries that now range from allied to neutral to mildly hostile, creating a bloc of hostility.
As a generality, Jihadists are not particularly interested in doing business, in any western usage of the word.
Now go to a map and look at middle eastern and African countries, from Pakistan on west to Libya. Next, think "oil". The majority of the wolrd's oil is there. IMO, I would not be a bit surprised to see Jihadists, if in power, deny sales to anybody except those on their "friends" list. China, India, France...And then?
Folks who focus on cheap gasoline as the be-all and end-all of the World of Oil are just "plumb iggerant". Half of all oil is used in all manner of other stuff, including plastics. And ocean transportation isn't exactly a small thing.
In 1975, oil enroute to Japan meant an eight-mile interval between ships bound there from the Persian Gulf. For the heck of it I'll guess 8,000 miles; that's 1,000 tankers. Now, China is importing around the same amount of oil as Japan. So, we're north of 2,000, mas o menos. Then there are the freighters between world ports; how many thousands more is that? When the oil runs out, or when the supply is controlled, what then? Lotsa nukes? Back to coal? I bring this up because it's just one facet of world energy use. Just one! And there are so many more.
So Iraq is an excellent location for bases to support our projection of power into an area that is the heart, aorta and jugular of our economy--and the rest of the world as well. It's a cost reduction from our present system, and could enhance the safety of people now in our military. Having major naval forces inside the Persian Gulf is truly dangerous; near-foolhardy, really. Pulling forces out of Saudi Arabia could well ease some of the motivations of those who would join the Jihadists.
I'm not advocating; I'm not cherishing any of the above. Forget that notion. It's just the way I see the harsh reality of today's world. The point that people miss in "The Prince" is that nothing is advocated there as being moral. What's shown is that if one has a particular goal, there are necessities in the actions to achieve it. "If you want B, you must first do A." As near as I can tell, our national goal is survival with some degree of comfort and pleasure, Some amount of continuity in "life as we know it". That's sometimes expensive, whether you're measuring in dollars or lives. So far, we're doing it on the cheap.
Art