Supply & Demand question.

[Typetwelve]

First off 2020 has been something else!!
No beef with those of us that are buying a lot of stuff ahead as a hedge against price increases or supply disruptions. Those that I despise are the people that wait at the store and buy all the .22 ammo or primers that don't even own a firearm who are hoping to flip it for a profit. I hope those folks die with it or sell ot for pennies on a dollar when nobody will play their game. Personally I was taught to be better than that.

As I age, I'm trying me best not to gripe about things I cannot control. I've done it too many times for too many years and all it does is make me a grump...

With that said, there is a micron thin line between "supply and demand" vs "gouging" vs "panic driven pricing". So thin, in fact, that I have failed to see the difference between them. I look at it this way, one can call a hangover "alcohol side effects" all they like...but it's still a hangover. People buying up all stock they can get their hands on with the intentions of flipping for all they can get on the grey market? Yeah...I feel that's a stretch writing it off to simple "supply and demand".

The only good to this is that it's ammo and materials, not food or something we actually need to survive. I'd love to see all the "Well, it's simple supply and demand" people handle $197/gal gas if places start gouging during a panic.Eventually, this kind of stuff effects us all. When grey market pricing becomes the norm, manufacturers tend to take notice and make all prices match. I'm feel pretty safe guessing that we'll all be in a hurt locker if these $125-175/case of primers on the grey market become standard pricing.

 

[mdi]

"This one always gets me...the "need" part.". Well, he did "need" primers to continue his shooting. Not just a reloading thing. I remember when anchovy prices went sky high in So. CA because of a "shortage" of the bait fish. If one wanted to use bait for fishing, they paid the price because they "needed" bait to continue fishing. Perhaps nobody really needs anything besides air, shelter, food and water, but to continue living in a comfortable, happy manner, we wear clothes, and play...

 

[Rule3]

Some think that it will get better. But what, just what will happen if after November, things do not go as we hope they will?????

 

[brewer12345]

Some think that it will get better. But what, just what will happen if after November, things do not go as we hope they will?????

View attachment 951602

Clearly a sweep by the "loyal opposition" will result in the panic ratcheting up.

 

[Typetwelve]

Some think that it will get better. But what, just what will happen if after November, things do not go as we hope they will?????

I'm guessing there will be a spike in prices for anything related to a new AWB...and the run on ammo will continue. Just like after the 2008 election, 2012 election, and the 2013 AWB scare...things will settle down, but it will take years. I remember that ARs didn't settle down to what I would call "reasonable" for a solid 12-18 months after a scare, I'd expect about the same thing this time around. So...late 2021 at the earliest? More than likely 2022?

The good news is that no matter who gets elected to the White House, congress is such a jacked up, constipated mess that nothing would get passed anyway. Democrats held the House, the Senate, and the Presidency during the 111th Congress and STILL couldn't pass an AWB.

 

[LiveLife]

Supply and demand question ... if everyone is out of these components why is the prices of brass & bullets staying so high? Shouldn't the price on projectiles drop because of the lack of the other components to build ammo?

Market price of anything is determined by what the buyers are willing to pay for them.

I have been through several component shortages (Including the "Great Component Shortage" of 2008-2013) and prices climbed until buyers weren't willing to pay. As to lack of reloading components like primers/powders and even bullets/projectiles, that only applies to those who didn't stock up or new gun owners as many reloaders/shooters who experienced previous shortages stocked up big time when prices were decades low in 2019.

Current shortage (Actually there is no shortage as manufacturers are working 24/7 to produce as much as they can) or rather increased demand is better than the "Great Component Shortage" as components are available, just at higher prices whereas during the "Great Component Shortage", components were not available as manufacturers had military/DHS contracts to fill.

How long will it take to drop, I have been holding off to buy cheap. LOL

We started our THR thread during the height of the shortage in 2013 and things didn't start coming back "In Stock" until at least a year later with still higher pricing and availability and pricing didn't improve until year and a half later - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...ading-components-available-these-days.707473/

And component glut with lowest pricing didn't hit until 4 years later after Trump got elected.

Keep in mind that record setting millions of guns were sold this year to new gun owners which may impact/delay return of "In Stock" of ammunition and reloading components at more reasonable pricing as many gun owners turn to reloading when availability and pricing of ammunition become scarce.

So if we are currently at the height of component shortage and Trump gets re-elected, my guess would be availability of components may not return fully until next years and drop in pricing due to reduction in demand (Yes, ammunition is consumable and gun owners need to keep buying replacement) may not happen for a few years.

Good thing is RMR has doubled the production capacity since the last shortage and is on track to triple/quadruple production capacity so you can place your backorder and receive them with delay while waiting for the rest of the component industry to catch up.

 

[deergetter]

At 71 I have been through enough of these shortages that I learned to always think ahead . If you love your sport as much as I do you don't let yourself get caught with your pants down. I can't let myself be subject to this kind of gouging . I never loaded for anything that needed small rifle primers until recently buying some 6.5 Creedmoor SRP brass and a friend gave me a brick of CCI primers for $30.00 . This is how real friends work together . I sold him some H4895 @$21.00 a pound that I bought a while ago at a good deal .We need to help each other so none of us get taken advantage of. Stick together and help each other .

 

[packetloss]

So far, no one seems to have a good answer for the OPs real question. With primers in such short supply (supposedly being used by the ammo manufacturers due to increased demand and not being sold as components), why would demand for projectiles exceed supply? Without enough primers, why would so many people need so many bullets? Primers in the US are only produced by 2-4 companies depending on if you consider some of them separate companies. Bullets, however, are being produced round the clock by tons of companies (Berry's, RMR, MBC, etc. etc.). It seems they should be able to produce enough to far exceed demand. It doesn't make much sense to buy cases and cases of bullets if you can't find primers in quantities to match. This would be like people buying additional cars (above MSRP) when you couldn't buy gas. Am I wrong?

 

[23tony]

... why didn’t you stock up when you could buy ammo for cheaper than that???

In my case, because I had the bright idea to start loading earlier this year, and hadn't noticed the shortage until after getting everything else but primers. I'm mostly good on factory ammo, but limited on .357 which I just got. Some of us simply weren't watching as closely.

 

[LiveLife]

So far, no one seems to have a good answer for the OPs real question.

With primers in such short supply (supposedly being used by the ammo manufacturers due to increased demand and not being sold as components), why would demand for projectiles exceed supply?

I already answered the OP's question in my previous post but here is again.

Because reloaders already stocked up on primers.

We have many threads from years past where we discussed what to stock up first and primers, especially SP, were recommended based on advise of many THR members.

So now these reloaders with primers just need bullets and powders as brass availability is OK.

 

[packetloss]

I already answered the OP's question in my previous post but here is again.

Because reloaders already stocked up on primers.

We have many threads from years past where we discussed what to stock up first and primers, especially SP, were recommended based on advise of many THR members.

So now these reloaders with primers just need bullets and powders as brass availability is OK.

I did say good answer Just kidding. You may be right.

In all seriousness, it does seem odd to me that bullets would be so backlogged, especially with so many manufacturers. I keep about 25-30K primers on hand and about 10-15K projectiles. Most of my friends that reload also have more than enough projectiles that none of us are ordering bullets or thinking about ordering any. If it really came down to it, we would cast our own. Primers on the other hand, I will watch my stock and order more if I can get them at a normal price.

 

[Rule3]

So far, no one seems to have a good answer for the OPs real question. With primers in such short supply (supposedly being used by the ammo manufacturers due to increased demand and not being sold as components), why would demand for projectiles exceed supply? Without enough primers, why would so many people need so many bullets? Primers in the US are only produced by 2-4 companies depending on if you consider some of them separate companies. Bullets, however, are being produced round the clock by tons of companies (Berry's, RMR, MBC, etc. etc.). It seems they should be able to produce enough to far exceed demand. It doesn't make much sense to buy cases and cases of bullets if you can't find primers in quantities to match. This would be like people buying additional cars (above MSRP) when you couldn't buy gas. Am I wrong?

Well yes you are kinda wrong
As you mention the big name companies are putting the effort into producing factory ammo, using THEIR bullets and primers. The companies you mention RMR< MBC< Berrys etc are small private companies and they are seriously back logged or out of stock. MBC is not making as many varieties as the used to.
So, bullets are hard to come by (relatively) just like primers. They are NOT meeting demand.

Primers are not involved in 22 Rimfire, yet you cant get that ammo, why?? Same as any other man made crisis. People HOARD!

Every year, the weather report mentions a Hurricane and instantly the shelves are stripped clean of bottled water, batteries, caned food and toilet paper? These are people that live her (Fl) all year, It happens every single year, They should already have the stuff? Just amazes me!

 

[LiveLife]

it does seem odd to me that bullets would be so backlogged, especially with so many manufacturers.

Many bullet (projectile) manufacturers have contracts/deals with US military and ammunition manufacturers so before they make bullets/projectiles available to retail customers, they will likely fulfill their commercial/wholesale orders first.

RMR supplies bullets to ELEY for their centerfire match ammunition along with other ammunition manufacturers and if they have contractual arrangement, they will supply commercial/wholesale orders first on a monthly basis before fulfilling retail customer orders.

And this is why after more than doubling their production capacity, RMR is planning to increase their production capacity once again which is good problem to have as a component manufacturer.

 

[packetloss]

Well yes you are kinda wrong
As you mention the big name companies are putting the effort into producing factory ammo, using THEIR bullets and primers. The companies you mention RMR< MBC< Berrys etc are small private companies and they are seriously back logged or out of stock. MBC is not making as many varieties as the used to.
So, bullets are hard to come by (relatively) just like primers. They are NOT meeting demand.

Primers are not involved in 22 Rimfire, yet you cant get that ammo, why?? Same as any other man made crisis. People HOARD!

I get that, but you can't make a loaded round without a primer and primers right now are the biggest bottleneck. Of course we don't know how many primers make it onto the market each month/week/day, but logically speaking, one would think people aren't ordering up cases and cases of bullets if they don't have any primers. I mean anything is possible, like how many rolls of toilet paper did people need. So who knows maybe people are hoarding bullets that they can't load.

I guess, maybe the better questions to ask is just how many primers make it to the reloader market each week and how many bullets make it to the reloader market week.

 

[LiveLife]

I get that, but you can't make a loaded round without a primer and primers right now are the biggest bottleneck. Of course we don't know how many primers make it onto the market each month/week/day, but logically speaking, one would think people aren't ordering up cases and cases of bullets if they don't have any primers.

Primer manufacturers also have military/ammunition manufacturer contracts to fulfill.

For many ammunition/component manufacturers, retail sales is peanuts compared to their military/government/wholesale sales.

So unless their production capacity increases, even on 24/7 production basis, they can produce finite X number of components and may have existing military/government/wholesale orders they must fulfill each month yet increasing retail demand will wipe out anything left, very quickly.

Now, even if RMR decides to invest and expand their production capacity by double, triple or quadruple, they will simply get bigger wholesale orders and us retail customers are back to same problem ... But dang, then Jake could double or triple RMR bottom line.

 

[ballman6711]

2020 has turned into a real show, hasn't it?

I said it earlier, prices will stabilize when supply catches up with demand or demand drops to the current supply level. Until then we just have to ride it out.

This isn't my first ammo shortage, but it is my first reloading component shortage. I'm not short on anything I need, and I won't pay the scalper's prices. I'll just wait until next year (or the year after) and stock up on components when things settle down, just like I did with ammo before I started reloading. Or I'll buy components when I find a good/fair price as needed.

This shortage is due to the "Perfect Storm". Election year, pandemic, civil unrest, record new gun owners, and more. But like any other storm, this one will also pass and eventually die out. When is anybody's best guess, but it will pass and things will normalize once again.

chris

 

[Typetwelve]

2020 has turned into a real show, hasn't it?

I said it earlier, prices will stabilize when supply catches up with demand or demand drops to the current supply level. Until then we just have to ride it out.

This isn't my first ammo shortage, but it is my first reloading component shortage. I'm not short on anything I need, and I won't pay the scalper's prices. I'll just wait until next year (or the year after) and stock up on components when things settle down, just like I did with ammo before I started reloading. Or I'll buy components when I find a good/fair price as needed.

This shortage is due to the "Perfect Storm". Election year, pandemic, civil unrest, record new gun owners, and more. But like any other storm, this one will also pass and eventually die out. When is anybody's best guess, but it will pass and things will normalize once again.

chris

This is darn near word for word what I have been saying all along. It too am a fairly new reloaded, I started in Jan of 2019. Like you, once I was caught with my pants down after the 2008 election, I never let it happen again.

 

[ballman6711]

This is darn near word for word what I have been saying all along. It too am a fairly new reloaded, I started in Jan of 2019. Like you, once I was caught with my pants down after the 2008 election, I never let it happen again.

I started loading in June of 2018, so I am also a fairly new reloader. I started shooting over 40 years ago, and have seen the ammo come and go, and have plenty of that.

But, my experience with ammo shortages had me buying components when I could, so I have what I need for my current shooting habits but would like to have a few more primers. I no longer shoot 3K or 4K rounds per month, more like 1K or so a year, so I'm set up pretty well for now.

I'm old enough to remember the bs prices when Clinton's AWB went into effect, but that settled eventually. Obama created a similar price spike. And so did others before, and it always settled down in time.

"This too shall pass"

chris

 

[Walkalong]

A regular prophet.