Shortage - Where are the ammo component inventories going?

[Peter M. Eick]

That is the point. It will get better if you just sit back, at rationally and let it happen.

The problem will come when folks like me who are tapping through our reserves get back into the market. I tend to buy primers in 50 to 100 thousand lot batches with several other Pro2000 owners and then we split up the loads and job out the powder and primers to our friends so we can meet the fire code regulations.

I figure I have enough powder and primers to make it through this year and into next before I have to buy but when I do, I will need to pick up nearly 50,000 primers just for me as I go through around 20,000 rounds a year on my own. Right now i am still loading and shooting but by the time I get ready to buy again, I will be out of primers, full up on empty brass and in a serious need of powder.

Thus folks like me will prolong the drought as we start getting back in to the supply chain as things settle out.

 

[skysoldier6566]

Your right, and at triple cost.

 

[Walkalong]

I'll bet a Benjamin by the time Peter buys his new stock, supplies will be at, or perhaps even slightly below, prices from 2012.

 

[Beentown]

I would back that bet.

 

[Peter M. Eick]

Walkalong is right, the prices will be down to 2012 levels. These things pass if you just let them.

What will happen is the market will get flooded with stock quickly as folks rapidly run out of money to buy up more ammo and supplies to hoard. Then the dealers who have been ordering like there is no tomorrow will all of a sudden be flush with resources that now they have to stock or get rid of quickly as they have more supplies backordered that will still be coming in. I expect that prices will fall dramatically once they start and we will lose a lot of reloaders back to shooting factory and supplies build up quickly.

Think about it. Unless you shoot a reasonable amount like I do, 20,000 shots a year is a lot to most of the folks I see at the range. Some folks have those type of numbers hoarded up and yet they only shoot 2 to 3000 rounds a year at best. When the hoarders exit the market because they can't store any more of it, and when they exit they will exit for years, resources will be available for the rest of us quickly.

It is hard to see that right now when you are in the midst of the crisis, but if this ain't your first rodeo, you see it more easily.

My personal perception is we are already past the peak and starting to build supplies up quickly. As things build up there will still be shortages, but come back in two or three months and I think you will find that I am right.

Baring UN or Federal intervention that is.

 

[papaairbear]

Very true. I'll be looking very hard for one of those used Dillons still in the boxes!

 

[BullfrogKen]

The same thing happened in the mid-90s. People bought, and bought, and over-bought on credit. Then, when gunnies had exhausted their buying dollars, and the non-gunnies bought all they thought they'd ever need - or their credit permitted - the market had no more money to spend. Dealers got stuck with crisis inventory level demand that wouldn't sell in a saturated market.

I think we're about there with ARs. We'll be there very soon with ammo. At some point, some point soon, demand will fall off a cliff and dealers will get stuck once again.

 

[Peter M. Eick]

I hate to say it, but I am still burning up C-34 primers I bought in the mid-90's. I saw a deal and bought what has turned out to be a 2 decade supply of them. That is what is about to occur to a LOT of folks.

Soon they will learn the joys of not being able to move houses and having to move powder and primer on their own and having resources that no one will buy used or having to memorize fire codes due to an excessive amount of one type of primer etc.

This is where I learned 2 years supply is good. 20 years is bordering on compulsive.

I agree with Ken. The AR market is now starting to get filled and the prices are dropping quickly. I see the same thing will happen this summer with reloading supplies. By September to November, (baring something really dumb happening) we should be flush with supplies.

 

[Walkalong]

Stuff will start backing up very soon, prices will drop some, and then when folks thirst for supplies they did not have is quenched, there will be sales here and there again. Both on reloading supplies as well as AR rifles and parts.

September to November sounds about right.

 

[zippy45]

I remember after the 2008 election what happened to ammo and supplies in 2009. Reloading components became scarce and didn't really come down in price until sometime in 2010.

 

[docsleepy]

Well I hope the prices drop soon.
I've got one fellow I taught who has a turret and a single and thankfully he bought up after the first scare.
The fellow south of me with a Mosin, a 223 and a .40 and a new single stage press and Lee Loaders is still completely dependenton me.
The gal at work with the NFA SBR wants to blast 400 rounds per WEEK. She just bought 5000 9mm bullets for her carry pistol and has zero primers. She has a loaned press.
The fellow 20 miles to the east with the new press is still completely dependent on me.
Then there is the newest new guy with a single stage, a mosin and about to have an AR and he also has zero.
We are multiplying in number so fast I hope they can make enough primers for all these new people!

I bet you that our nation now has more presses or dies in the hands of the civilian population than any nation has, ever, in the history of the world.

I am pretty sure we have more AR's in civilian hands that ever in the history of the world.

And likely more loaded ammuniton also...apparently purchasing about 1/2 a Billion loaded rounds per month.

 

[rajbcpa]

The new NY gun laws are driving demand here and the shelves are still empty. NY is a big state and this situation impacts the entire market.

I don't see this situation improving soon but I hope I am wrong. My recollection of the last shortage was that, after it started to ease, retail prices remained high and never came back to pre-shortage price levels.

Is that incorrect?

 

[rightside]

AR's are pretty much everywhere here and prices are about back to pre-histera. In fact my buddy found a Colt 6920 in Wally World yesterday and got it for $1100.

Stopped by Dillon last week and they were expecting a good sized order any time, they told me stuff is starting to trickle in. I think components will follow the same pattern as AR's.
.

 

[243winxb]

Ammo Shortage -Most going to Gov.-No end in Sight

There are long term contracts with ATK/Alliant/Lake City, Federal, Black Hills for small arms ammo. I dont see any end to the shortage anytime soon. Even St. Marks has to help Alliant with LC production quotas to keep up to demand. Alliant has increased production fivefold (5X) since 2000 & still can't produce enough ammo. A few hours searching, turned up lots of contract info on each. http://search.defense.gov/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&sc=0&query=&m=&affiliate=dl_contracts&commit=Search

 

[243winxb]

Primer Chemicals

The primers used in making the military ammo also contain a less obvious national security risk—of the 13 chemicals used to make the primer compound, 10 of them are imported from outside the country. For example, four of the chemicals can only be found in China, and two can only be found in Mexico. If either of those countries were unwilling, or unable, to export these chemicals to us in the future, we would need to come up with a new way to make primers. http://cheaperthandirt.com/blog/?p=9995