The Odds of Being Murdered

[Titan6]

Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

Carolyn Shoemaker has put the odds of the asteroid Aprohis (about the size of the Superdome) smashing into the Earth at about 1 in 45,000. This would be bad of course. How bad no one knows for sure.

Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.

 

[R.W.Dale]

Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.

fire extinguishers and firearms

and probably significantly less than dying in a fire (3000 or so deaths in 05). But I bet less than half the cocked&locked STHF crowd here has a fire extinguisher in their home or even a working smoke alarm.

I think a sticky along these lines posted at the top of this board would bring a much needed reality check to these forums and could also be used as stats against anti's

 

[Nautilus]

lol, thats an interesting way of looking at it.

If you were to break down those odds even more... say by occupation. Like removing those working the night shift at convenience stores or removing drug users/dealers... the odds of being murdered by a stranger would shrink even more nevermind being murdered in your own home.

 

[chuwee81]

haha, yea i just bought one a week ago, also it's SHTF (s--- hits the fan)

well, i am to darn lazy to search on home robberies statistics (gun point) in your own home but i didn't worry about it until my wife became part of it. She got robbed last year in front of her townhome. So that's why we're packing now.

 

[R.W.Dale]

41,059 deaths on American roads in 2007

someone better at math than me needs to break this down

 

[Titan6]

She got robbed last year in front of her townhome

Your chances of getting robbed/ mugged are significantly higher of course.

 

[expvideo]

Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.

You are making an assuption here. This is not fact, and I would like you to actually do the research if you are going to claim that it is.

I don't carry a gun because I'm affraid I'll be murdered by a stranger. I carry a gun to prevent myself from being murdered, raped, beaten to a bloody pulp, mugged, held hostage, etc. And when you add that there are usually anywhere from 5-200 people within my field of vision that I can protect from having the same things happen, I am much more likely to need a gun than you might think.

If you want to get the actual odds for needing to defend yourself with a gun, your equation needs to not only include the 16,000 gun murders, but also include:

-All of the other kinds of murder
-Assaults
-Rapes
-Robberies/Muggings
-Animal attacks
-Terrorist attacks

And then devide the number by 5-200, since most of us are willing to protect the people around us from the same things, and your odds are probably more like 1 in 20. Hang out in a bad neighborhood long enough and it's more like 1 in 2. Hang out in a fancy gated community and it's more like 1 in 2000.

 

[armoredman]

Ok, I'll bite - what caliber for asteroid?
You know SOMEONE had to say it!
As for the facts, sure, in certain areas the risk is higher, and in certain areas the risk is far less. An overview statistic is meaningless in the specifics, especially if you ARE the one getting killed in your home.

And I have two fire extinguishers, smoke/CO detectors, dogs, alarms, and other ways of dealing with various emergencies. Because not being able to save my family in a moment of crisis would be far worse than the money saved not having these items.

 

[wyocarp]

But I bet less than half the cocked&locked STHF crowd here has a fire extinguisher in their home or even a working smoke alarm

I had working smoke alarms in my house a few years back and it still burned down.

But, a intruder's chance of making out of my house alive if we are home are somewhere between slim and none.

 

[scottgun]

Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

Why is it significant to only be murdered by a stranger? Gettting killed by an acquaintance would be just as bad.

 

[Guy de Loimbard]

It's not about the odds, it's about the stakes.

 

[wyocarp]

Oh, I beg to differ. It is about the odds. It's about the odds of beating the odds when the stakes become really high.

 

[taliv]

expvideo, don't forget that's a per year number. if you live 80 years...

 

[Duke of Doubt]

Only 80?

A 2% chance of being shot down on a mission over Germany might not sound too bad. But over a fifty mission tour?

 

[R.W.Dale]

expvideo, don't forget that's a per year number. if you live 80 years...

that still doesn't change the odds as related to other potental untimely demises

 

[expvideo]

According to an anti website:

FACT:In 2005 (the most recent year for which data is available), there were 30,694 gun deaths in the U.S:


12,352 homicides (40% of all U.S gun deaths),
17,002 suicides (55% of all U.S gun deaths),
789 unintentional shootings, 330 from legal intervention and 221 from undetermined intent (5% of all U.S gun deaths combined).

(source http://www.ichv.org/Statistics.htm)

That's a lot less than 16000. I would like to know where you got your figure or 16000, and where you got the figure of 8000 strangers. I think you made it up. I didn't realize that 2008 statistics were available.

Also, these aren't murders. These are homicides. That means every time a cop shoots a bad guy, you defend your home from a bad guy or the border patrol shoots somebody in a gunfight on the border. That's right. Justifiable homicides are calculated in there, which means that they are not all murders.

Very few people are actually murdered with a firearm. People are murdered more often with other methods. But like I said earlier, murder is not the only thing that carrying a gun prevents. There are a lot of violent crimes that are prevented by firearms that are not murder.

 

[expvideo]

that still doesn't change the odds as related to other potental untimely demises

that's true. It's like flipping a coin. It can be heads 50 times in a row, and your odds of the next flip being tails are still 1 in 2.

 

[Titan6]

EXP- Try the FBI instead of Wikipedia (or wherever you went).

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/jan08/ucr_statistics010708.html

I would like to know where you got your figure or 16000, and where you got the figure of 8000 strangers.

The first half of 2008 is in, not the whole year. I extrapolated and rounded off based on 2007 numbers and the rate of increase in the first half of 2008. Notice I said "about" and not exactly. If I knew the exact numbers I would post them. I think we can agree that we are within say 10% here?

 

[indoorsoccerfrea]

but the odds of it being heads 50 times in a row is...about 1 over 1258999070000000 (i actually calculated that!). i think you have a greater chance of being a victim of violent crime than that. While it is true that i more than likely will not be murdered or have a close acquaintance who is murdered, the odds are still too high for me.

 

[taliv]

that still doesn't change the odds as related to other potental untimely demises

maybe, but it was being compared to death-by-asteroid, so unless you're saying that asteroid spins by the earth annually, it seems relevant.

 

[Titan6]

but it was being compared to death-by-asteroid, so unless you're saying that asteroid spins by the earth annually, it seems relevant.

The asteroid is supposed to swing by a few times but only once close enough to pose a threat. However many astronomers put the odds of a medium sized asteroid (5 story office building size) striking the Earth at about 50% in the next 50 years.

 

[scottgun]

Well, everybody's chance of dying is 100%, in the aggregate.

It's the how and when that is the concern and taking preventable measures to avoid an early demise.

 

[Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow]

What caliber for asteroid - tee hee. That IS actually one of the possible proposed methods of avoiding a collision with a NEO (near earth object) - essentially shooting it with a nuclear warhead far out to divert it's course - like armageddon blowing it up, sorta, but without the necessity of landing on it.

But I bet less than half the cocked&locked STHF crowd here has a fire extinguisher in their home or even a working smoke alarm.

I would bet that you are very incorrect about that. I would think that 75-90% at least, of said "shtf crowd" have both a fire extinguisher and smoke alarm - heck the majority of households do, and these types (such as myself) are more careful than the average public member, not less careful, generally speaking.

 

[expvideo]

EXP- Try the FBI instead of Wikipedia (or wherever you went).

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/jan08/ucr_s...ics010708.html

I would like to know where you got your figure or 16000, and where you got the figure of 8000 strangers.

The first half of 2008 is in, not the whole year. I extrapolated and rounded off based on 2007 numbers and the rate of increase in the first half of 2008. Notice I said "about" and not exactly. If I knew the exact numbers I would post them. I think we can agree that we are within say 10% here?

The link you sent me to has no numbers, only percentage increases for the first 6 months of 2007. 2008 is not referenced. At all. Where are your 2008 numbers coming from?

AND you skipped my second half of the question. Where did you get that 50% of the so-called murders were committed by strangers? (sorry for the bold, I didn't want you to miss it again)

I almost missed this one:

Carolyn Shoemaker has put the odds of the asteroid Aprohis (about the size of the Superdome) smashing into the Earth at about 1 in 45,000. This would be bad of course. How bad no one knows for sure.

You mean to tell me that they can calculate the odds of an asteroid hitting and they are confident in those findings, but the same scientists have no idea what the damage would be? Or is it possible that they are smart enough to know what would happen if the asteroid hit, and you just made up the "no one knows" part based on your own assumptions. I think you are making a lot of your own opinions out to be fact in this thread. I think that they only things you have been able to say so far that have even the loosest fact behind them are that 16,000 (still unconfirmed) people were "murdered" (still unconfirmed), and that Carolyn Shoemaker thinks there is a 1 in 45,000 chance of us being hit by the asteroid Aprohis.


Let me get back on topic. You still need to provide a source for the following:

- Actual numbers for 2007 or 2008 that indicates a close number to 16,000
- Any kind of evidence that those were actually "murders" and not "homicides"... I'll save you some time. They were homicides, which means any time a person was killed with a firearm, regardless of whether or not it was justified, and including people shot by cops.
- Some kind of evidence supporting your claim that 50% of your "murders" were committed by strangers.

 

[Titan6]

You have to look at the PDF on the website.

The FBI's supplementary Homicide Report lists the number of people murdered by those they knew. For example it is different for females:

In 2003, there were 1,817 females murdered by males in single victim/single
offender incidents that were submitted to the FBI for its Supplementary Homicide
Report.11 These key findings from the report, expanded upon in the following sections,
dispel many of the myths regarding the nature of lethal violence against women:
o For homicides in which the victim to offender relationship could be
identified, 92 percent of female victims (1,547 out of 1,689) were
murdered by someone they knew.