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The Odds of Being Murdered

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by Titan6, Jan 23, 2009.

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  1. Titan6

    Titan6 member

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    Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

    Carolyn Shoemaker has put the odds of the asteroid Aprohis (about the size of the Superdome) smashing into the Earth at about 1 in 45,000. This would be bad of course. How bad no one knows for sure.

    Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.
     
  2. R.W.Dale

    R.W.Dale Member

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    fire extinguishers and firearms

    and probably significantly less than dying in a fire (3000 or so deaths in 05). But I bet less than half the cocked&locked STHF crowd here has a fire extinguisher in their home or even a working smoke alarm.

    I think a sticky along these lines posted at the top of this board would bring a much needed reality check to these forums and could also be used as stats against anti's
     
  3. Nautilus

    Nautilus Member

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    lol, thats an interesting way of looking at it.

    If you were to break down those odds even more... say by occupation. Like removing those working the night shift at convenience stores or removing drug users/dealers... the odds of being murdered by a stranger would shrink even more nevermind being murdered in your own home.
     
  4. chuwee81

    chuwee81 Member

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    haha, yea i just bought one a week ago, also it's SHTF (s--- hits the fan) :)

    well, i am to darn lazy to search on home robberies statistics (gun point) in your own home but i didn't worry about it until my wife became part of it. She got robbed last year in front of her townhome. So that's why we're packing now.
     
  5. R.W.Dale

    R.W.Dale Member

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    41,059 deaths on American roads in 2007

    someone better at math than me needs to break this down
     
  6. Titan6

    Titan6 member

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    Your chances of getting robbed/ mugged are significantly higher of course.
     
  7. expvideo

    expvideo Member

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    You are making an assuption here. This is not fact, and I would like you to actually do the research if you are going to claim that it is.

    I don't carry a gun because I'm affraid I'll be murdered by a stranger. I carry a gun to prevent myself from being murdered, raped, beaten to a bloody pulp, mugged, held hostage, etc. And when you add that there are usually anywhere from 5-200 people within my field of vision that I can protect from having the same things happen, I am much more likely to need a gun than you might think.

    If you want to get the actual odds for needing to defend yourself with a gun, your equation needs to not only include the 16,000 gun murders, but also include:

    -All of the other kinds of murder
    -Assaults
    -Rapes
    -Robberies/Muggings
    -Animal attacks
    -Terrorist attacks

    And then devide the number by 5-200, since most of us are willing to protect the people around us from the same things, and your odds are probably more like 1 in 20. Hang out in a bad neighborhood long enough and it's more like 1 in 2. Hang out in a fancy gated community and it's more like 1 in 2000.
     
  8. armoredman

    armoredman Member

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    Ok, I'll bite - what caliber for asteroid?
    You know SOMEONE had to say it!
    As for the facts, sure, in certain areas the risk is higher, and in certain areas the risk is far less. An overview statistic is meaningless in the specifics, especially if you ARE the one getting killed in your home.

    And I have two fire extinguishers, smoke/CO detectors, dogs, alarms, and other ways of dealing with various emergencies. Because not being able to save my family in a moment of crisis would be far worse than the money saved not having these items.
     
  9. wyocarp

    wyocarp Member

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    I had working smoke alarms in my house a few years back and it still burned down.

    But, a intruder's chance of making out of my house alive if we are home are somewhere between slim and none.
     
  10. scottgun

    scottgun Member

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    Why is it significant to only be murdered by a stranger? Gettting killed by an acquaintance would be just as bad.
     
  11. Guy de Loimbard

    Guy de Loimbard Member

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    It's not about the odds, it's about the stakes.
     
  12. wyocarp

    wyocarp Member

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    Oh, I beg to differ. It is about the odds. It's about the odds of beating the odds when the stakes become really high.
     
  13. taliv

    taliv Moderator

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    expvideo, don't forget that's a per year number. if you live 80 years...
     
  14. Duke of Doubt

    Duke of Doubt member

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    Only 80?

    A 2% chance of being shot down on a mission over Germany might not sound too bad. But over a fifty mission tour?
     
  15. R.W.Dale

    R.W.Dale Member

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    that still doesn't change the odds as related to other potental untimely demises
     
  16. expvideo

    expvideo Member

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    According to an anti website:
    (source http://www.ichv.org/Statistics.htm)

    That's a lot less than 16000. I would like to know where you got your figure or 16000, and where you got the figure of 8000 strangers. I think you made it up. I didn't realize that 2008 statistics were available.

    Also, these aren't murders. These are homicides. That means every time a cop shoots a bad guy, you defend your home from a bad guy or the border patrol shoots somebody in a gunfight on the border. That's right. Justifiable homicides are calculated in there, which means that they are not all murders.

    Very few people are actually murdered with a firearm. People are murdered more often with other methods. But like I said earlier, murder is not the only thing that carrying a gun prevents. There are a lot of violent crimes that are prevented by firearms that are not murder.
     
  17. expvideo

    expvideo Member

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    that's true. It's like flipping a coin. It can be heads 50 times in a row, and your odds of the next flip being tails are still 1 in 2.
     
  18. Titan6

    Titan6 member

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    EXP- Try the FBI instead of Wikipedia (or wherever you went).

    http://www.fbi.gov/page2/jan08/ucr_statistics010708.html
    The first half of 2008 is in, not the whole year. I extrapolated and rounded off based on 2007 numbers and the rate of increase in the first half of 2008. Notice I said "about" and not exactly. If I knew the exact numbers I would post them. I think we can agree that we are within say 10% here?
     
  19. indoorsoccerfrea

    indoorsoccerfrea Member

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    but the odds of it being heads 50 times in a row is...about 1 over 1258999070000000 (i actually calculated that!). i think you have a greater chance of being a victim of violent crime than that. While it is true that i more than likely will not be murdered or have a close acquaintance who is murdered, the odds are still too high for me.
     
  20. taliv

    taliv Moderator

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    maybe, but it was being compared to death-by-asteroid, so unless you're saying that asteroid spins by the earth annually, it seems relevant.
     
  21. Titan6

    Titan6 member

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    The asteroid is supposed to swing by a few times but only once close enough to pose a threat. However many astronomers put the odds of a medium sized asteroid (5 story office building size) striking the Earth at about 50% in the next 50 years.
     
  22. scottgun

    scottgun Member

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    Well, everybody's chance of dying is 100%, in the aggregate.

    It's the how and when that is the concern and taking preventable measures to avoid an early demise.
     
  23. Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow

    Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow member

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    What caliber for asteroid - tee hee. :) That IS actually one of the possible proposed methods of avoiding a collision with a NEO (near earth object) - essentially shooting it with a nuclear warhead far out to divert it's course - like armageddon blowing it up, sorta, but without the necessity of landing on it.

    I would bet that you are very incorrect about that. I would think that 75-90% at least, of said "shtf crowd" have both a fire extinguisher and smoke alarm - heck the majority of households do, and these types (such as myself) are more careful than the average public member, not less careful, generally speaking.
     
  24. expvideo

    expvideo Member

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    The link you sent me to has no numbers, only percentage increases for the first 6 months of 2007. 2008 is not referenced. At all. Where are your 2008 numbers coming from?

    AND you skipped my second half of the question. Where did you get that 50% of the so-called murders were committed by strangers? (sorry for the bold, I didn't want you to miss it again)

    I almost missed this one:
    You mean to tell me that they can calculate the odds of an asteroid hitting and they are confident in those findings, but the same scientists have no idea what the damage would be? Or is it possible that they are smart enough to know what would happen if the asteroid hit, and you just made up the "no one knows" part based on your own assumptions. I think you are making a lot of your own opinions out to be fact in this thread. I think that they only things you have been able to say so far that have even the loosest fact behind them are that 16,000 (still unconfirmed) people were "murdered" (still unconfirmed), and that Carolyn Shoemaker thinks there is a 1 in 45,000 chance of us being hit by the asteroid Aprohis.


    Let me get back on topic. You still need to provide a source for the following:

    - Actual numbers for 2007 or 2008 that indicates a close number to 16,000
    - Any kind of evidence that those were actually "murders" and not "homicides"... I'll save you some time. They were homicides, which means any time a person was killed with a firearm, regardless of whether or not it was justified, and including people shot by cops.
    - Some kind of evidence supporting your claim that 50% of your "murders" were committed by strangers.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2009
  25. Titan6

    Titan6 member

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    You have to look at the PDF on the website.

    The FBI's supplementary Homicide Report lists the number of people murdered by those they knew. For example it is different for females:
     
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