The Truth We Can't Face -America As A Third Rate Nation

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let me throw this into the mix. in the early 1900's, right after the russian revolution when lenin took control of russia, he made this statement: germany will militarize inself to death; england will terrotorialize itself to death and the united states will spend itself to death.
this isn't an exact quote, but pretty close. two of the three have happened. mcole
 
Vladimir Berkov:

No need to add anything else to what you already wrote!

Okay, maybe, except this...
What value does gold have beyond its industrial and commercial uses? Only its scarcity gives it the high value it has.
Except, as I stated before, it is not nearly as scarce as it once was. Because of changing consumer habits and the emergence other, more suitable alloys, the commercial and industrial uses of gold have declined tremendously in the last decades.

In fact, if it were completely up to the "invisible hand," the price of gold would be even lower than it is today (a number of national banks are disposing of their stocks of gold - selling them - *slowly* in order to maintain its price level).

There was a cute little article about it on The Economist a while back ("Fingered," Sept. 13, 2001).
 
in the early 1900's, right after the russian revolution when lenin took control of russia
Did comrade Lenin mention whether or not all three predictions would come true before or after his commie revolution ended up in the turd-bowl of history? Just curious. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
 
not as far as i'm aware; nevertheless, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. i would interpret the "squirrelism" to mean that even that stupid bastard lenin could have a precient insight.
it still took the u.s. 50 some years to SPEND the ussr to death. mcole
 
International trade would be impossible, huh? If a firm paid for everything it ordered in grams of .999 fine gold...just how many companies would say,"Sorry, we can't sell to you."

The firm could certainly open an account with me
 
Buying is not the problem, so long as they accept the gold.

But let's say I want to sell something made in America overseas, I would be getting payment in a non-gold currency, such as Euros, Yen, or whatever.

The way the gold standard worked was that all the major industrial and trading nations (GB, US, France, etc) were on the gold standard and agreed to play by its rules. They were able to regulate the flow of gold between countries, and even out deficits and surpluses through domestic policies and the trading of government securities.
 
Wow-all these brain cells just a-burnin to get on a hard currency standard because they don't trust the government on a Fiat (or Yugo, or Vega) standard-we are all getting ripped off. Well, who do you think is going to set up and manage a hard currency? THE SAME THIEVES, duh?
All this whining and crying is pretty much for nothing-we may not make Legos and Lincoln Logs in our own country anymore, but the fact remains that anyone who wants to sell their product in a market society targets the USA. Even with our broken worthless dollar at that. Poor fools, these foreigners are....
 
Kaylee,

Thank you. You've done an excellent job. You remind of another poster who is also well versed in metallic money systems and the power of a free market.

As to the added steps between printing press output and the bank then on into circulation, this is not so much to control inflation as it is to exploit the time lag and therefore the added value that comes from "fresh" money. Those who can utilize today's fresh dollar will gain more because that same dollar tomorrow will have a lower value. A very slow motion Weimar scenario. Instead of ten years, we do it over 150 years so the people will acclimate.

Vladimir, you are obviously very learned in Keynesian economics and some of that predominant Chicago school thinking.

It would seem that the divide here is akin to all other political divides; severely limited or no central government with a free market v. a highly intrusive government with highly regulated money/banking and a controlled market.

As a suggestion, how about getting the government out the money/banking business entirely or at least put the government issuance of money on the same footing as any other free market purveyor of money. If ABC Mining and Coin produces and sells gold coins into the market there is no reason the government could not do the same. It's just that government would no be authorized to regulate or control quality or value by legislation. A third party or independent assay company could provide verification of both weight and purity of all coins from all sources. For added security, independent assayers could monitor the monitors for those who need the extra assurance. As an added incentive to honesty any tampering in quality and content could be dealt with most severely. Of course this is just a suggestion and details would need to be filled in, however, I think it would be a step in the right direction for everyone as we would avoid the runaway inflation that plagued us in the 70's and the continuous deflation that Japan is experiencing. It would broadly limit government and untangle a large portion of it from our daily lives and commerce and prices (the amount a customer pays for a good or service) would stabilize and become more reflective of actual value. For these and so many more reasons, hard money and getting government out of the money controlling business would do more to improve our economy and that of the rest of the world than anything government has done, is doing now or will do in the future.

Chipper
 
"God love you people but you have all managed to mortally wound my interest in economics."

Pendragon, this is for you. If you laid all of the economists in the world end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.

Let me hear you say Amen!

John
 
"God love you people but you have all managed to mortally wound my interest in economics.""


10-4 on that and everyone is an "expert":rolleyes:
 
Okay.... time for snips and giggles I guess....

I am talking about the period between the US Civil War and 1914. That is referred to as the "classical" gold period.

I know what period you are referring to. In fact, I have REPEATEDLY granted you that your arguments hold true for that period. I've also stipulated that they do NOT necessarily hold true for hard currency as a general rule, and given other models where your concerns are non-issues. As I read your posts, you've ignored that point repreatedly in order to argue a point I've already granted.

Whatever else we do, can we please get off this particular "classical period" merry go round? It's giving me a headache.

I am not talking about macroeconomic models, I am talking about hard facts. Unemployment was simply higher during the gold standard period, even when other economic factors are taken into account, than it is during the current post- 1946 period.


Unemployment global, or unemployment domestic? There's are a heck of a lot "other economic factors" to control for seeing how much the world changed in other ways from 1880 to 1980. Would you mind sharing your source for the data?

You are ignoring the other many tools which the government can use, focusing in on purely monetary policy is misleading.


Government can do a lot of things. It can't create resources, only move them around. All else stems from that point.

However to dismiss Keynes out of hand is to dismiss most of modern macroeconomic theory, much of which has proven quite useful.


I'll grant I'm not fond of what's been made of Keynes, but thowing out the babe with the water is a good point. I'll get back to you on that when I'm done with General Theory. It might be a while. :)

No, it is factually correct. A gold standard requires government intervention

and
And in the United States, the only entity which could fulfill such a requirement is....The United States Government.

and
A gold standard requires a national bank, or at the very least, a very close group of central banks to operate properly.


I'm not getting into this again with you. See above comment re. classical period and merry go round. If you want to discuss specific flaws with a privately administered monetary system, I'll be happy to lock horns again. :)


Except, as I stated before, it is not nearly as scarce as it once was.


There's no more gold on the earth now than there was a thousand years ago. More of it is above ground, and more of it isn't being used for other purposes, yes... but it's still a finite resource.

Moreover, a gold-based (as opposed to backed, see above) currency slowly coming into general usage would drive the "scarcity" you refer to right back up. Thankfully, it would likely be a slower process with less shocks than going off a backed currency was.

God love you people but you have all managed to mortally wound my interest in economics.


Sorry... it's just such a fascinating subject though. Like a college bull session but with stakes to the game. :)


Well, who do you think is going to set up and manage a hard currency? THE SAME THIEVES, duh?
No, not necessarily. Different thieves, more likely. :)
The point is that it's a less-tamperable system. There will always be thieves, both in and out of government. The trick is to make it harder to be a thief... hence the hard currency.

but the fact remains that anyone who wants to sell their product in a market society targets the USA. Even with our broken worthless dollar at that. Poor fools, these foreigners are....


Hey, even when the best game in town is busted, it's still the best game in town.


It would seem that the divide here is akin to all other political divides; severely limited or no central government with a free market v. a highly intrusive government with highly regulated money/banking and a controlled market.

And THAT my dears is prolly the most ringingly true statement on this thread yet.

Economics is politics with a bowtie.


10-4 on that and everyone is an "expert"


Feel free to jump in anytime. :)
I don't see many SOCOM folks on the rifle board, but we do okay there to.


-K
 
You're probably right, Kaylee-thieves are thick when it comes to money or power. I really do not see a huge advantage by going to a precious metals standard, but as we are the largest consumer in the world, it would probably be easier to convert to whatever standard we desired because it would force the other countries to follow suit if they wished to continue business with us.
 
ok, I'll bite:

Money is a tool for tracking value. Value comes from goods created and services performed.

The problem is, there is absolutely nothing that we can point to that can serve as an anchor to our money/value system.

I understand that in the hard money system, gold is supposed to be the standard, but you have to admit, it is an arbitrary standard. Ask yourself - if you were Gilligan and the castaways, how excited would you be to discover a chest of gold? Gold is worthless unless someone else wants it and they in turn have something you want.

This notion of fiat currency being so horrible strikes me as so altruistic as to be silly. The fact is, the value of everything changes over time. Take this from a guy who used to make more money than he ever thought possible and now counts every dollar, every gallon of gas and loaf of bread to get by.

Guess what? Teachers, mechanics, bus drivers, engineers and doctors all earn a certain amount of money that buys a certain amount of lifestyle. If you pay the bus driver $100/hour, thats fine, but houses will soon cost a million dollars or more.

This notion that there are unseen forces who have multi generational plots to topple civilizations (through fiat money, the illuminati or liberal education) is just crazy crazy crazy.

For almost all people, their "worth" is going to be determined by their education and what field they go into and how much they prioritize advancement. Some will learn to live under their means and invest. Some will become movie stars or pro athletes. Some will be entrepreneurs and become very wealthy or destitute (or both, often more than once).

So talk about how it takes 150 years for this problem to manifest is just crazy talk. Look at what has happened in the last 75 years. Look at what is looming for just the next 10 years - good and bad.

If the people behind this fiat money conspiracy are trying to rip us all off and enslave us, they are pretty patient and pretty stupid. Who wants to wait 150 years to take over the world? Most people cannot plan 5 years into the future.

The things the common man should be worrying about are taxes - especially death taxes which keep the middle class in the middle class.

Whatever your ideas on monetary policy, as long as there are people, there will be an economy and some will have more and some will have less. Those who are smarter and better will always live better than the stupid and lazy - this will never change.

We are still at the begining of a massive, unimaginable technological revolution. We cannot even concieve what we will be doing with computers in 10 years. Modern medicine, gene therapy, nano technology - these things will create massive shifts in wealth and lifestyle. Throw in some terrorism and maybe a few WMD events and the financial landscape will be so different that speculation seems comical.

Yet some will do well, some will not - the only constant will be change.
 
Of course gold is an arbitrary standard, just like any other commodity. This is why I keep refering to a 'hard money system' rather than a gold standard. If private banks are allowed to issue currency, the market will determine which backing commodities work out and which do not. My own personal opinion is that gold will be popular, for reasons that I expounded upon above. It won't be the only option.

Macroeconomics is junk science, and Keynes was a junk scientist. Economics, being the sum total of all human action, is far to complex to be reduced to simple, generally applicable equations. We are talking about a system with six billion elements making thousands of discrete economic choices every day. There is no way Keynasian central planning can work in such an environment.

- Chris
 
I know what period you are referring to. In fact, I have REPEATEDLY granted you that your arguments hold true for that period. I've also stipulated that they do NOT necessarily hold true for hard currency as a general rule, and given other models where your concerns are non-issues. As I read your posts, you've ignored that point repreatedly in order to argue a point I've already granted.

Whatever else we do, can we please get off this particular "classical period" merry go round? It's giving me a headache.

I guess I don't understand your argument then. Are you arguing that we could impliment a gold standard which was different than the classical period one, in which the problems of that period would be eliminated? The reason why I ask is because it is generally conceded that the classical period is when the gold standard "worked" in practice. The fact that the system failed means that any new system you advocate should be able to deal with the reasons why the old system failed. Specifically the foreign reasons.

Unemployment global, or unemployment domestic? There's are a heck of a lot "other economic factors" to control for seeing how much the world changed in other ways from 1880 to 1980. Would you mind sharing your source for the data?

Domestic unemployment during the classical period was generally about 1% higher than in the current period, and the overall economic situation was similar, with high GDP growth, etc.

Government can do a lot of things. It can't create resources, only move them around. All else stems from that point.

I guess I don't understand how you are defining "resources." Do you mean factors of production? Physical resources only, producer/consumer surplus, what?

I'm not getting into this again with you. See above comment re. classical period and merry go round. If you want to discuss specific flaws with a privately administered monetary system, I'll be happy to lock horns again.

Privately administered system? How on earth is that going to work without the US government formally adopting such a system? Off the top of my head, I can't think of a private currency system which either exists currently or in the past. Certainly there have been sub-national currencies, many of them in fact. However, I can't think of a national, private currency.

The main flaws I see in such a system are public confidence, and proper regulation. A gold standard is not self-regulating in terms of international trade, or in terms of maintaining reserves.

I should state here that I am probably the biggest believer in free market capitalism that I know, which is one of the reasons why I am studying economics. I will readily concede that a gold standard has atvantages, yet I simply don't see the conditions existing which could lead to its return.
 
Macroeconomics is junk science, and Keynes was a junk scientist. Economics, being the sum total of all human action, is far to complex to be reduced to simple, generally applicable equations. We are talking about a system with six billion elements making thousands of discrete economic choices every day. There is no way Keynasian central planning can work in such an environment.

Obviously there is no "grand unified theory of economics," which can explain everything according to a specific model. However, the fact that the system is quite complex is not a hinderance to its study. Think of it as analogous to hydrodynamics. In studying the movement of water, you are looking at trillions of individual elements operating individually. Obviously, there is no way to get an answer by looking at each element, yet through the construction of models which can simplify the actual structure to the extent we can derive formulas, we CAN study it.

The fact that we can see our results match the reality, means that even without studying all parts of the system, one can analyze it to a certain extent.
 
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Except, as I stated before, it is not nearly as scarce as it once was.
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There's no more gold on the earth now than there was a thousand years ago. More of it is above ground, and more of it isn't being used for other purposes, yes... but it's still a finite resource.
Oh, really? "Theoretically" you are correct, but not so in practice. Explain to me why we haven't run out of coal like our more alarmist forebearers predicted (and as our more alarmist brethren predict today with petroleum)? Why is that the price of coal is - even at real terms (okay, PPP in any case) - a fraction of what it was in the 19th Century?

Following your logic, just about every raw material ("a finite resource") should be increasing in price as its quantity declines. Yet, most such materials are declining in price (in long-term, of course, independent of short-term spikes). Care to explain why?
Money is a tool for tracking value. Value comes from goods created and services performed.

The problem is, there is absolutely nothing that we can point to that can serve as an anchor to our money/value system.

I understand that in the hard money system, gold is supposed to be the standard, but you have to admit, it is an arbitrary standard. Ask yourself - if you were Gilligan and the castaways, how excited would you be to discover a chest of gold? Gold is worthless unless someone else wants it and they in turn have something you want.
Exactly! Money, whether gold or paper, is a means of representing value. That value has to be agreed upon by the members of a given society and enforced by the government. The difference between the so-called "fiat" currency and "hard" currency is minor (interestingly enough, the notion of "hard" is relative, i.e. the US dollar is a "hard" currency in international exchange, and it speaks much about the value others see in the stability of the US).
 
In the last century, world gold production ranged from about 1.75% to 3.25% of total stock.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/of01-006/gold.html

Humans would still be hard pressed to find a more stable commodity to use as a polaris.

I tend to pitch my philosophical tent near Kaylee's optimistic camp.
The days of the Nation State and its clumsy monetary wise men may be numbered anyway.

The future holds a new kind of "sovereign".
 
Regardless of what this thread even started about, gold has held its value over 5-6K years of human history.

What an ounce bought way back will still buy now, & will in the future. Mr. Peabody, anyone?

& we are on the barter system whether you like it or not.

Granted, we're not trading 5 chickens for a pig, but we're still on the same system - just leveraged, more compact & more convenient.

Don't kid yourself.

You barter your societally perceived value in any society for what worth you might have. You get a corresponding "value chit" (re)assigned for that amount of perceived value & cash it in for what you want to buy.

FWIW, gold's about ready to break $380 - that "1 oz gold will buy a really great toga" may surpass much of our modern econ-speak.

Of course, trends of the past 30 years must[?i} make it so.
:rolleyes:

We tanked in the late 20s due to a non-confidence issue, not that "bartering never worked."

But this from a grasshopper.
 
I understand that in the hard money system, gold is supposed to be the standard, but you have to admit, it is an arbitrary standard.
well.. Chris already answered that. Thanks Chris!

As to the Gilligan thing... more excited that I would be to find a chest filled with the equivalent value in 1960's dollar bills, I'll tell you that. ;)

This notion that there are unseen forces who have multi generational plots to topple civilizations (through fiat money, the illuminati or liberal education) is just crazy crazy crazy.

When were we saying there were?
I'll agree with you on that. Never assign to conspiracy that which is just as easily explained by incompetence.

And on to my friend Vlad... :)

I guess I don't understand your argument then. Are you arguing that we could impliment a gold standard which was different than the classical period one, in which the problems of that period would be eliminated? The reason why I ask is because it is generally conceded that the classical period is when the gold standard "worked" in practice. The fact that the system failed means that any new system you advocate should be able to deal with the reasons why the old system failed. Specifically the foreign reasons.

My argument is as follows --
1 -- The Gold standard was quite stable while it lasted, but collapsed due to too much State meddling. It's Achilles Heel was that the rate of exchange was gov't mandated, with each nation defining their currency in terms of gold. When the State can revalue their currency, as FDR did in the 30's, the idea of gold as a "standard" becomes meaningless. It's a fiat system with gilded window dressing.

2 -- The major foreign stresses -- I presume you're referring to France calling in her debts in gold, thus creating a drain out of the US. Again we get to the issue of State mandates. As I recall it, the problem stemmed from overissuing currency as compared to the reserves. If for every dollar issued you have only 50 cents wirth of gold in your reserves, you are leaving the principle of the Gold Standard.. effectively negating the central advantage of the metallic backing.

SO...
The solution I see here is not to take the gold backing out from a gov't currency, but rather to remove the gov't currency from the gold. Thus, an ounce is always an ounce... everywhere. A gram is always a gram... everywhere. This prevents the revaluing problem.

This doesn't mean that a gold-based (not backed) money supply would need to be strictly cash-and-carry, any more than it is now. There are ALREADY institutions that allow electronic transfer of metals in grams, ounces, whatever from one person to another, much as paypal does now. Further, they 100% back their stores with warehoused metal, and release it as bullion for a marginal seignorage fee. Since there is no partial reserve like the classical state-based Gold Standard, this prevents the "France calling in her debts" problem.

And again.. there's no reason this need be done by a State treasury. Anyone with the metal who wanted to play bank could do it, provided they play by the rules.

The potential problem is an old one, and here you can bring in your troopers if you want. :) Maintaining the 100% reserve requirement. I tend to think an "AMA" type of arrangement, a professional board of standards which required regular audits of storage vs. accounts would be ideal, though a gov't review board might do the same job.

Either way, issuing more credit over the reserves held would be essentially counterfitting, and punishable as such. As I ceded Delmar, there will always be theives. The trick is to make it hard to be a theif.


So there.. that's an alternate system for you. Yes, it's still "barter" of a fashion I suppose. But remember -- money is a tool. A human invention for facilitating trade. And such a private system, providing that reserves are transparently monitored and verified, is at least as stable a system as fiat currency.

Unemployment... yeesh. I've been typing WAY to long. How about I cede on that for now, and we get back to it later? Time to get back to work. :)
 
God I love econ! I've kept silent for quite an amount of time here so I have to chime in. These comments are not directed towards anyone but rather they are random thoughts.

Money is nothing but an I.O.U. issued on a grand scale. Thus, the one true quality that people seek in a currency is trust. Trust is only obtained when the individual has faith that the backer of the currency is actually going to back it up. In the long term, greater trust leads to greater stability of the currency.

So one should ask themselves: do you believe that the issuer of the USD is trust-worthy? It is apparent that the vast majority of the world's population has confidence in the backer of the USD. Just to illustrate the amount of trust that people have in the USD: Has someone, in your experience, ever turned down a USD in a transaction? Personally, I have never had a loss of transaction because I wanted to pay with USDs, on this continent or abroad. The conclusion here is that the USD is at the top of anyone's "trust-worthy currency list". So would a gold standard help raise this trust-worthiness even more? Probably not.

Furthermore, if the backer quits backing a currency, both a gold standard system and a fiat system will have currency with absolutely no value. Therefore what we are ultimately seeking is a currency that will basically back itself.

But is there such a currency that will back itself? As Kaylee suggests, a gold system based on weights of real tangible gold could be one solution. This would most likely work in the long run. The problem that would be encountered is if society deems that gold is more or less scarce than it used to be, which is just as subjective as any other economic valuation. The valuation shift could be caused by an injection of gold into a market or by the absence of gold in a particular market. The entities that could change the valuation in the short term are very limited: government, exceptionally wealthy individuals/corporations, or very large banks.

Interestingly enough, the entities which greatly influence the valuation of our current USD are: government, exceptionally wealthy individuals/corporations, or very large banks. Think about that.
 
Okay great. Let's go to a gold standard.

Now, what would I rather receive in payment when I make a sale, a gold U.S. coin or a gold North Korean coin? How about a handful of coins from country I never heard of? Great, now I get to bite each one and guess if they're really gold. Yum.

Let's just stick with the greenbacks - they weigh less.

John

P.S. - the first thing I learned abroad was carry lots of U.S. currency, especially one dollar bills. Don't leave home without it.
 
A gentleman with whom I am acquainted wrote the following and it has been immensely helpful to me in my continuing effort to understand money, how it works and how to follow it around:
(as used here, FRT=Federal Reserve Token. It is not a note as it is not redeemable to the issuer for anything of inherent value)

We use the term every day. But what is Money? What does it do? I decided to combine everything I have ever heard about the subject into one complete and concise outline.

Money has 4 distinct functions:

1. A medium of indirect exchange for transactions
2. Determines value via prices
3. Preserves wealth through space and time
4. Performs credit transactions

Money must fulfill the following 9 criteria:

1. High instrinsic value
2. Scarcity - ensures a limited and relatively stable supply, and thus, stable prices
3. Homogeneity - facilitates divisibility
4. Divisibility - provides granularity necessary for small transactions
5. Portability - necessary to easily and discreetly move large amount of wealth
6. Recognition - facilitates universal desirability
7. Universal desirability
8. Durability - ensures a non-perishable product for storage or transactions
9. Difficult to counterfeit - ensures that money is not destroyed

These are the traditional qualities of money. To take it one step further, the ideal money will have one more criterion:

10. Denominated in a unit of weight immune from politics and debasement.

Now let's take a look at how well the Federal Reserve Token (formerly Federal Reserve Note, when redemption was still possible) fulfills these criteria:

1. High instrinsic value - FAIL The FRT is intrinsically worthless.
2. Scarcity - FAIL - the FRT can be produced infinitely as long as the printing press is running.
3. Homogeneity - facilitates divisibility FAIL The FRT has no substance and therefore no homogeneity.
4. Divisibility - FAIL The FRT has no substance and therefore no divisibility.
5. Portability - YES
6. Recognition - YES
7. Universal desirability MAYBE The FRT is universally desirable but when inflated or hyperinflated, it loses that desirability. Money, on the other hand, is always universally desirable.
8. Durability - FAIL A bill lasts only several years, it can be burned, cut and
destroyed in other ways while a coin lasts decades if not centuries.
9. Difficult to counterfeit - ensures that money is not destroyed FAIL The FRT
is very easy to counterfeit by the agency that issues them, in a sense every FRT created is
counterfeit because none are redeemable.
10. Denominated in units of weight - FAIL It is not denominated in anything, it is an abstraction, a zero on the computer screen.

Chipper
 
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