RealGun
Member
Ha! A little prayer wouldn't hurt, if into that sort of thing.
Things Don't Look Good for Bush
- Thread starter Roon
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Ha! A little prayer wouldn't hurt, if into that sort of thing.
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
A couple of points...
One, Electoral-Vote.com is biased. They cherry-pick which polls they will use and which they will not on a weekly basis. They use polls they have not used previously and discard others they have accepted in the past. You can check this yourself by comparing recent polls published on RCP to polls used by EV.com.
Two, if the election were held today Bush would win. The race is close enough that a strong push by the Dems or apathy on the part of the Republican voters can change that; but right now; the odds favor Bush dramatically.
Three, there will be some attempt by one or both parties to publish a last minute news story that is damaging to the other candidate. Whether or not this swings the vote much remains to be seen.
Four, ABCNews exit polling of absentee/early voters shows Bush leading with 51% of the vote currently - if the this trend continues, it means that third party voters+undecided+Kerry voters are still not enough to take Kerry over the top.
It is close. Things COULD change a lot between now and Tuesday; but right now we are sitting in a good position and the race is close enough that gun owners alone could insure a Bush win just by going out and voting for Bush over Kerry.
One, Electoral-Vote.com is biased. They cherry-pick which polls they will use and which they will not on a weekly basis. They use polls they have not used previously and discard others they have accepted in the past. You can check this yourself by comparing recent polls published on RCP to polls used by EV.com.
Two, if the election were held today Bush would win. The race is close enough that a strong push by the Dems or apathy on the part of the Republican voters can change that; but right now; the odds favor Bush dramatically.
Three, there will be some attempt by one or both parties to publish a last minute news story that is damaging to the other candidate. Whether or not this swings the vote much remains to be seen.
Four, ABCNews exit polling of absentee/early voters shows Bush leading with 51% of the vote currently - if the this trend continues, it means that third party voters+undecided+Kerry voters are still not enough to take Kerry over the top.
It is close. Things COULD change a lot between now and Tuesday; but right now we are sitting in a good position and the race is close enough that gun owners alone could insure a Bush win just by going out and voting for Bush over Kerry.
My take on the polls--its still too close to call. Too many states could still swing either way at this point.
I think it'll come down to who gets out the vote on Tuesday. I hope the Bushies do it. I think Kerry would be very, very bad for the country.
I think it'll come down to who gets out the vote on Tuesday. I hope the Bushies do it. I think Kerry would be very, very bad for the country.
Yooper
Member
The value of pre-election polls is nill. Talk is cheap. What matters is the count on election day, nothing else.
First of all, do not ever believe any opinion poll. It's too easily manipulated and that's exactly what they do. Secondly, never, ever believe ANYTHING the LA Times says. That rag is so biased against Republicans their polls ALWAYS show the Dem leading. Remember when Gray Davis was being recalled and the Times poll showed him surviving the recall? Then the Times poll showed Bustamonte leading the race to replace him. LA stands for Lying Always.
I predict Bush will carry 40 states and about 300 electoral votes with around 52% of the popular vote. If you want to know how desperate the Kerry camp is just look at all the dirty tricks they're pulling out of their... er, hats.
I predict Bush will carry 40 states and about 300 electoral votes with around 52% of the popular vote. If you want to know how desperate the Kerry camp is just look at all the dirty tricks they're pulling out of their... er, hats.
Bush should hope for some more hanging chads to keep his sorry a$$ in office. Out of 260,000,000 Americans, can't we do better than these two geeks? Kind of makes me miss Ole Slick Willie. At least everybody had a job, gas was $.90 a gallon, there was a surplus in the treasury, and we weren't fighing an unwinnable war in the Middle East.
Rant mode off.
Rant mode off.
dance varmint
Member
If you don't know which "poll" of "likely voters" to believe, disregard them and look at the price of Bush and Kerry futures in the Iowa Electronic Market. This is a real-money futures market at the University of Iowa College of Business.
See http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem
Currently Bush is trading at $0.53 to Kerry's $0.47. This market is open to investors nationwide and has existed for several years. I don't think too many people make ill-informed bets with real money.
See http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem
Currently Bush is trading at $0.53 to Kerry's $0.47. This market is open to investors nationwide and has existed for several years. I don't think too many people make ill-informed bets with real money.
bountyhunter
member
Never happen. The Nader Cancer will bleed off enough demo votes to swing some of the close states.... just like 2000. And the Cheney Big Scare about how Kerry will trigger terrorist attacks will make the sheeple vote Bush even if they have to hold their noses when they do it.
MICHAEL T
Member
Why can't Kerry win He## the American people elected Clinton not once but twice. Yes Kerry has a chance if we sit at home and don't vote or vote for a 3rd party .
Cosmoline
Member
The nationwide polls mean nothing. Ignore them. The electoral college vote is all that matters. Basically the whole thing is a toss up and there's no way we'll know until after the fat lady sings next week. It's going to come down to a handful of voters in some swing state, no doubt.
davec
Member
Meaningless. The only swing states that have early voting are Michigan and Flordia. All the others with the exception of California are almost certain Bush locks. The population distribution of voters in early voting states is massivly in Bush's favor....yet he only has a slight edge so far.
2nd Amendment
member
Kind of makes me miss Ole Slick Willie. At least everybody had a job, gas was $.90 a gallon, there was a surplus in the treasury, and we weren't fighing an unwinnable war in the Middle East.
Fascinating. The unemployment rate is the same now as then and dropping. There was never any surplus, merely a projected surplus based on creative book-work. And we were already at war, or have you forgotten the terrorist attacks Clinton simply chose to ignore?
Regardless, I'll tell you the best indicator: Bush's job approval. Everyone, including whats-his-name at electoral-vote.com have said that if those ratings were 50% or above and climbing in the last week of the election it is over for sKerry. Well the last ones I saw were at 53% and rising.
Also, look at the margin Kerry has in his states vs the margins Bush has in his. it's indicative of underlying strength of base. Bush leads all over the place by 15 to 30%. Kerry's leads are mostly in the 2 to 10% bracket and keep bouncing around. He's got support, but it is narrowly defined and in limited areas. His ONLY hope is to squeak out the EC because in the popular vote he's about to have his ass handed him on a plate.
Fascinating. The unemployment rate is the same now as then and dropping. There was never any surplus, merely a projected surplus based on creative book-work. And we were already at war, or have you forgotten the terrorist attacks Clinton simply chose to ignore?
Regardless, I'll tell you the best indicator: Bush's job approval. Everyone, including whats-his-name at electoral-vote.com have said that if those ratings were 50% or above and climbing in the last week of the election it is over for sKerry. Well the last ones I saw were at 53% and rising.
Also, look at the margin Kerry has in his states vs the margins Bush has in his. it's indicative of underlying strength of base. Bush leads all over the place by 15 to 30%. Kerry's leads are mostly in the 2 to 10% bracket and keep bouncing around. He's got support, but it is narrowly defined and in limited areas. His ONLY hope is to squeak out the EC because in the popular vote he's about to have his ass handed him on a plate.
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
OK, let's look at the swing states Bush has to win in order to win the election. Bush can win with any combo of:
Florida and Ohio
Florida and Pennsylvania
Florida or Pennsylvania and any other two of Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota or Michigan
Kerry has to win the following swing states in order to beat Bush:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Hawaii, Michigan, Pennsylvania AND either Florida or Ohio.
What is the likelihood that Kerry will win seven 50/50 coin tosses in a row? What is the likelihood that Bush wins the two or three he needs?
Gunowners can still easily lose this race since it is all about turnout in the battleground states; but right now it is our race to lose.
Lobotomy Boy
Member
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I'm just basing this on a gut feeling, but I think things might be swinging towards Kerry. He's proving to be a lot smarter than he looks, or at least a lot more shrewd. He's playing a good chess game with the electoral votes in the swing states, and I wouldn't rule out him pulling some kind of October surprise in the coming days, like producing some damning evidence of some sort of grand strategic failure in Iraq on Saturday or Sunday. Of course Bush could still pull Osama Bin Laden out from under his rock, too, but if that's his plan, he should get on the mother ASAP.
But otherwise I'm starting to see a reverse of the 2000 scenario, where Bush wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote.
But otherwise I'm starting to see a reverse of the 2000 scenario, where Bush wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote.
Roon
Member
Hot News...
The L.A.Times has Bush up in Florida, 51% to Kerry 43%. If that holds, this is very encouraging.
The L.A.Times has Bush up in Florida, 51% to Kerry 43%. If that holds, this is very encouraging.
bogie
Member
You know what I find disturbing?
There's a thing that folks in the public relations/advertising business call the "Bandwagon Effect." That's when you have a concept (or in this case a candidate), and he gets support from a percentage of the people _just because they think that he'll win, and they want to be on the winning side_. No other reason.
There are folks posting on this forum who have come over from systems like the Democratic Underground. Their goal is to use as many "election tricks" as possible, from "vote against Bush," to "Kerry's really a sportsman," to "Kerry's going to win, so vote for him."
Sheesh.
There's a thing that folks in the public relations/advertising business call the "Bandwagon Effect." That's when you have a concept (or in this case a candidate), and he gets support from a percentage of the people _just because they think that he'll win, and they want to be on the winning side_. No other reason.
There are folks posting on this forum who have come over from systems like the Democratic Underground. Their goal is to use as many "election tricks" as possible, from "vote against Bush," to "Kerry's really a sportsman," to "Kerry's going to win, so vote for him."
Sheesh.
jeff-10
Member
What Kerry needs to win is an H. Ross Perot, like good old WIlliam Jefferson Clinton had. Forutnately no big spoilers have stepped forward.
RealGun
Member
That's funny, coming on the same day that Clinton campaigns in Florida.
tulsamal
Member
Your number is just a LITTLE bit off. There are 294,626.718 people living in the US right now. That's over 34 and a half million people MORE than 260 million! That's enough to populate the state of OK 11 times so it seems significant to me!
http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en
Gregg
tulsamal
Member
You left out the easiest way for Kerry to win. He can win BOTH Florida and Ohio. Then he can afford to lose Iowa, WI, Michigan, and New Mexico. He would still have 272 votes.
This is why those two states are REALLY getting all the attention! If they split them, anything can happen. If one candidate gets them both, he is almost certain to win.
Gregg
tulsamal
Member
People are always so ready to give Clinton credit for this. I don't know why.
He was elected in 92. He had a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate for his first two years. They fought about health care and gays in the military and that's about it. Oh, and he nearly came to blows with Senator Kerrey (D) of Nebraska over the budget.
Then the GOP won both the House and Senate in 94. They took office in 95. The GOP couldn't totally change the direction of the Clinton Whitehouse but they could control spending. The economy was really heating up. (Which had nothing to do with who was President at that moment. Take a PolSc 1113 or Econ 101 class.) The amount of revenue coming in to the government kept going up. The GOP and Clinton couldn't agree on where to put the extra money. Clinton had several ideas but the GOP refused to go along. The "compromise" was to just hold on to the money and make a couple of payments on the national debt.
I give Clinton economic credit for not making things worse. Many Democratic presidents have done so. Clinton basically continued the economic policies of the previous 12 years of GOP Presidents. And then he ended up with a budget "in surplus" right there at the end because a GOP House and Senate demanded it. I don't think we can point out that surplus as a Clinton "success." Although the Democratic Party likes to do so. He was President for 8 years and the GOP controlled Congress for 6 of them!
It's like welfare reform. The GOP had to back Clinton into a corner before they could finally get him to go along with it. Then, when it worked and saved a whole bunch of money, he was happy to go out there and talk about the success of "his" plan. Politcians are like that. They hope most of us either didn't notice what was happening at the time or we have forgotten it.
Gregg
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
1. The LA Times is utterly unreliable as a polling organization.
2. There is no chance Bush went from a dead tie to 8 point lead
3. The same poll shows Bush down 6 in Ohio
tulsamal:
My count shows Kerry at 211 now. Florida and Ohio alone won't work form him unless he also wins Pennsylvania and any candidate that wins all three of those states will almost certainly carry IA, WI, MI, and NM. I figured that it was unlikely any candidate would pick up all 3 of the key states.
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