Things Don't Look Good for Bush

[Roon]

The LA Times is utterly unreliable as a polling organization.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, with an overlapping time frame as the LA Times poll, gives similar numbers: Bush 51 Kerry 43 in Florida.

right now; the odds favor Bush dramatically

Somebody's smokin' something!

 

[tulsamal]

My count shows Kerry at 211 now. Florida and Ohio alone won't work form him unless he also wins Pennsylvania

It's _possible_ that Bush will win Pennsylvania but not very likely. It isn't even usually included as one of the "swing states." Kerry is screwed if Bush wins there. So I would agree that a Bush win in PA probably means a Bush win in OH and FL. But certainly Kerry could win PA but not OH and/or FL.

PA is actually one of the states in the breakout of that futures market. You can buy into Bush winning PA right now at 28. Considering a win would net you a $1, that's a low level of probability. (Although, to be fair, it did shoot up 5.5 points today for some reason. PA news story or poll?)

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Gregg

 

[mountainclmbr]

I will vote early on Friday in CO. My vote goes to Bush. He is not perfect, but he is not a serial communist supporter like Kerry (N Vietnam, USSR, Cuba, Grenada, Nicaragua, El Salvador). I am too old for reeducation camp anyway.

 

[Bartholomew Roberts]

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, with an overlapping time frame as the LA Times poll, gives similar numbers: Bush 51 Kerry 43 in Florida.

That is good news then as Gallup IS a reliable polling organization. Although I am still skeptical about the swing of the vote - IIRC, Gallup doesn't weight their polls for partisan membership, so if they happen to get an unusually large chunk of Republicans it can cause a single poll to swing a little dramatically.

quote:
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right now; the odds favor Bush dramatically
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Somebody's smokin' something!

No, I'm just looking at the electoral vote. Bush only needs to win two-three of the right swing states and he wins the election. Kerry needs to win almost all of the swing states to win. Which of those is more likely? The odds favor Bush.

By the way, the President is going to be in Dallas, TX on November 1st. Last time I looked, Texas wasn't a swing state. The Republicans seem pretty confident about the outcome if they are pulling the President off the campaign trail to come down to Texas the day before the election.