Thoughts on Multiple Assailants, Hit Rate & Capacity

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Prosser:
I stated that the 40 S&W was factory ammo.
I conducted the drill with ammo that I would use in the pistols.
In each case the bullet weight is one of the lighter choices for the caliber.
I like the "stupid" 8# NY trigger, installed it myself; prevents me from popping off a 2nd shot when I don't want to.

Accuracy: Please understand that this shooting was as quick as I can stay on a 6'' circle at about 18 feet or 6 yards. The 10mm and 40 S&W misses don't reflect the inherent accuracy of the pistol or ammo, rather it's more reflective of the challenge of keeping a harder kicking round on target when shooting at the limit of my ability. The 45 had a couple of misses that were only about 1'' from the circle and the 9mm only had one; whereas the 40 and 10mm each had a couple of shots that were several inches away. Those shots reflect the challenge of attampting to keep the muzzle of a harder kicking round on target. If I shot one round per second there would be no difference in accuracy because every round from every pistol would hit the 6'' circle every time.

I have conducted this test before; last summer it was the same thing, except it was G19 vs G23. The 19 easily won the drill due to the same reason the 26 did, less recoil; although the G19 allowed me to get those 1st - 2nd average shot times down to .19 sec.

I typically carry appendix IWB which rules out the 19/23 size pistols as the muzzle digs intolerably into my grion. Apparently a little is a lot, because the 29/30 which are only slightly shorter don't bother me.

The thread is about hit rate, that's why I posted the results of my test.
If my attackers would allow me the luxury of 1 second per shot (4 rounds in four seconds) I could carry the hardest kicking ammo and still be very accurate.
I figure that if I was attacked by two (or more) people I would be attempting to make good hits as quick as possible, just like my little drill.
 
I'm sorry, but I didn't read the entire original post because it was way too long and complicated. Let me make a couple of observations.

1. There is absolutely no way to accurately predict what the reaction of any particular individual will be to a gunshot wound. If you research gunfights this is something that jumps out at you. Big, strong men have been felled and incapacitated by a minor wound to the arm while slightly build individuals have absorbed numerous hits from large caliber weapons with no apparent immediate effect. Trying to speculate how many rounds will be needed to "stop" an attacker is a useless exercise. Too many variable including drug use which skews any attempt at scientific predictions.

2. Civilians coming under gang attack are very rare. Average citizens very rarely need to worry about engaging multiple opponents. The typical criminal attack will involve a single perpetrator, maybe two. Not that multiple person attacks never happen, but they are few and far between.

When a gang does attack, they are cowards. If they were courageous they wouldn't feel the need to operate as a group. I suspect that in 99.9% of such cases a single gunshot, Hell, simply displaying a weapon will scatter the attackers. The only way you will shoot more than one or two gang members is if you can hit them in the back as they run (which is a bad idea from a legal standpoint).
Point #3 is true! Once you demonstrate that you have the means to defend yourself AND turn the tables on them, the threat diminishes drastically.
Shoot the leader and it will be hard to find a second target due to all the dust the others made by running away.
 
depends...
but it's entirely likely that you will find yourself wrong
gang members are conditioned to violence
trained packs will ATTACK at the sight of a gun, as it's the way the MOST of them survive, running, letting one die or getting shot in the back... just saying, don't count on hardened criminals running.
 
Shoot the leader and it will be hard to find a second target due to all the dust the others made by running away.
I'm beginning to think that one is stored with "a hit in the hand with a .45 will knock him down."

One hears it very often, but never with substantiation.
 
quite the opposite, both through physics AND experimentation and empirical evidence have all proven that the bullet lacks adequate force to know a person down.
 
Quote:
Shoot the leader and it will be hard to find a second target due to all the dust the others made by running away.

I'm beginning to think that one is stored with "a hit in the hand with a .45 will knock him down."

One hears it very often, but never with substantiation.

Shooting the leader first may or may not work, granted (additionally, you have to rapidly figure out who the leader is), but is there a better option?
 
There may be. Not every situation can be or should be solved with a gun. Of course, if you have no choice, then you do what you can.
 
Posted by jad0110: Shooting the leader first may or may not work, granted (additionally, you have to rapidly figure out who the leader is), but is there a better option?
Yes.

It is to first shoot the one who presents the most immediate danger. That, too, may require some very rapid evaluation and a quick decision.

If the threat involves edged weapons, it would be either the closest or the fastest moving. If it is an armed attack, it might be the guy with the shotgun, it it's not the guy who presented his weapon first. You would have to decide. But trying to identify and assess a command hierarchy would be a waste of very valuable time.

Remember, we are discussing multiple assailants in calculations limited to two, not a mob.

But if there are three, the principle remains the same: prioritized based on danger.
 
Most out there would have better chance of taking the option of being "beaten in" into the group.
 
The good news for me was that only one of the three had a gun. Or at least only one was pulled out. The other two appeared unarmed.

The attack was a revenge attack for my apparent friendship with a bowling
alley manager, who had just kicked the three out for being drunk and probably on drugs. Irony was I was nice to the guy only to get him to give us free bowling we were entitled to from the terms of our league agreement.

He was a general jerk to everyone.

Another note: Have better friends with guts. I was bowling with two guys that saw the three guys go into the bathroom, and did nothing. Both admitted later that they knew I was going to get "jacked".

It might also have had a lot to do with race, since at the time, IIRC the only caucasian appearing people in the alley were myself and the bowling manager.

All that said, I would have had a very good chance of taking out the guy that pulled the gun if I had been armed. The advantage at that range is that
you can strike anywhere and your chances of hitting are about 100%, as long as you take advantage of vertical movement to not present an easy target. If a gun had been on the end of my arm it would not have required
aiming. Find target, push and pull trigger at the same time.

Since these guys ran off when I started yelling and moving, I doubt they would have been around after a gunshot.
 
This Really Made Me Think

I've been reading about firearms for just under six decades, and I've been shooting them for five and a half. I have availed myself of some high performance defensive pistol shooting. In an earlier life, I wrote risk management procedures for a major company.

I knew that a single shot from a handgun was unlikely to stop a single assailant. I knew that hitting under duress was an uncertain proposition. I was aware that in the event of a mugging, it was by no means unlikely that more than one assailant would be involved.

But I had never really put it all together . For me, that required doing the math. John did that for us.

Wow. Today the J-frame no longer serves as a primary carry weapon. In its place rides either my M&P 9c or a new Ruger SR9c, which I just acquired as a result of this thread.
 
People generally scatter like chickens as soon as you start shooting. The exception would be a highly diciplined military unit or a SWAT team who will put the mission above their own personal safety. No common criminal will lay down his life so that his surviving buddies can walk off with your big screen TV.
 
What about a J frame with a laser/CT?

This has been a very informative thread, with many well informed opinions.

What about a 5 shot J frame revolver supplemented by a laser/ crimson trace type system?

Obviously its probably hard to collect statistics on that, but Id be interested in seeing whether most people think the CT/laser make a substantial/real world difference in hits on multiple targets??


Also, I like the thoughts on upgrading to the M&P9c, more than twice the firepower in one load. But for me the J frame conceals so much easier, it just seems like Im more likely to carry it over a mid-compact sized semi. Should "probability of carry" be considered as a factor as well, or is that too statistically impossible to isolate and determine?

Just interested in seeing if anyone thinks the laser makes a difference compared to purely more capacity?
 
I just started a thread on lasers and in general I think their usefulness is very specialized, in my case I would say the need for a very precise shot in a crowd where the gunman was confident or didn't care if they were shot (active shooter). In general I support the idea of a defensive weapon with a higher capacity simply because one never knows the number of assailants and IMO criminals in some cases are evolving into pack animals and I don't want to get stuck with 5 rounds when statistics say that is not enough for even 2.
 
Posted by Owen Sparks: People generally scatter like chickens as soon as you start shooting. The exception would be a highly diciplined military unit or a SWAT team who will put the mission above their own personal safety. No common criminal will lay down his life so that his surviving buddies can walk off with your big screen TV.

That has already been discussed, and there are other exceptions. See this.
 
Mr Rob, a laser requires it to be pointed on target for you to use it as a sighting system. If it is off target, especially outside, then it's going to be a lot harder to see where you're off.
 
Considering 70% of the attacks were/are in low light conditions, I suspect a laser might be a good idea.
 
What this thread taught me is if you like jframes then carry 2.High or low capacity aside any handgun can fail and sometimes it happens at the worst time,so a backup is what I carry!
 
This has been a very informative thread, with many well informed opinions.

What about a 5 shot J frame revolver supplemented by a laser/ crimson trace type system?

Obviously its probably hard to collect statistics on that, but Id be interested in seeing whether most people think the CT/laser make a substantial/real world difference in hits on multiple targets??

Bottom line, it's still only 5 shots. To me, no where near enough. That red dot might make aiming without sights slightly easier, but you will not see a significant increase in hit percentage. I want to have the ability to fire at least 5 shots at each assailant, and I prepare for at least two assailants.
 
I think that anything that improves your hit rate helps, but as I pointed out earlier in the thread, even very high hit rates won't help if you don't have enough shots available to make the necessary number of hits. Similarly, even a lot of rounds won't do much good if you can't shoot well enough and/or fast enough to make them count.
 
Gelatin penetration just got an attitude adjustment.



They do have a .45 Colt load that goes right through the block, 250-260 grains hardcast, but at about 800 fps.

I've always thought 250-275 grains would be plenty to get to 18" using a HP.
I was WRONG:

http://www.brassfetcher.com/index_files/500SWSpecial.htm
"500S&W Special
Summary Table
Cor-Bon
275gr DPX
(HT500S275)
1237 fps
14.8 " gel
0.628
8.4
(1)
Northwest Custom Projectile
350gr Manstopper
1293 fps
16.1 " gel
0.509

Using the Barnes XPB the guys are getting about 1500 fps with the 275 grain bullet out of the .500JRH, in a 2-3" barrel, using 4227.
Over-penetration does not appear to be an issue:
http://www.brassfetcher.com/index_files/500SWMagnum.htm

Everytime you think you have an answer it doesn't play out...

Looks like I was about right. The XPB was shot at 3 different velocities. 1200 fps gave about 14", 1600 fps 18", and 2000 around 19".

Seems you have to open up the PDF file to get the facts in writing, and, it appears the stuff on the gello shoot differs from the stuff stated on the video.
Recoil in a 3.2 pound gun feels easy, but, that's compared to heavier bullet loads:
Recoil Energy of 25 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 23 fps.
At least it isn't coming back very fast, more like a push...
 
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