Latest poll I saw (on CNN) showed Daschle with a four to five-point lead. Given the source, and that Daschle has more name recognition, I would think that Thune has a chance of catching up.
I love the Daschle ads, by the way. They're showing footage of him shaking hands with Bush, talking about how he worked with Bush on the WOT, etc.
Gee, how come he isn't showing footage of him with Kerry?