Trends

[Akula69]

I am *not* creating a thread on political discourse.

I have noticed the trend of waning components lately, most likely because of several factors (supply chain, world events). Most noticeable were was a ground swell of powder availability which has now waned off. Midway has completely "turned off" the powder selections on their site as have several others (Powder Valley being another notable site). The only site currently listing more then several powders is Mid-South.
Interestingly, American reloading had numerous bulk powders available in 5 lb containers, but they are all gone now. Most of what they have left is 10 lb containers (two 5's) or larger increments of 5 lbs (They get their powder pre-packed in 5 lb containers). Most of what they get is remnants of drums from other factories, which is why it's labeled 'like' a certain powder. I have tried their "like H-335" rifle powder in 2.23 and find it a little on the hot side but usable. Even they are waning now, with the projectiles they have being in the 'not so popular' calibers.

Primers have been weird. Very little CCI or Federal has been out there...mostly Genex or Murom, with some other re-branded offerings. I picked up some Murom the other day...a little scary in the way mine were packed but they work satisfactorily.

As much as I had hoped the market was starting to correct itself, (and supply would be stabilizing), I believe we are in the first third of another shortage, with prices getting ready to climb again. I have been trying to 'stay the course' and not buy more then necessary to help push prices down, but I no longer believe that is an option. The sad fact is more folks are trying to enter into this hobby late in the game, and are snapping up all they can without regard to price (mainly because they did not experience the prices before the 'rush").

I realize this may be just my observations, which is why I put this thread up. I am interested in what the rest of you see when you are "reading the tea leaves".

Me? I will be buying 2K more Murom SPP and then quietly moving to the sidelines.

 

[Mostly Lead]

More demand + less supply = higher prices/opportunity/capitalism. It's nothing personal, no conspiracy, business is business.

Watch an old episode of The Price is Right with Bob Barker. You may notice a "trend" in the prices of many items...

More folks entering the hobby is not a "sad fact" though. In a free market, more demand will incentivize creating more supply (especially with record sales at these prices). Give the formula's time to work, they always do.

Disclaimer: no facts were harmed in the creation of the above statements, they were all formed from opinion only.

 

[WeekendReloader]

For a few months, powder was back in stock everywhere online and in some LGS (well, all except Aliant powders). Even 4, 5 and 8 pounders became available. If one needed powder, it was there for the taking for a few months.
Perhaps this a dip. Perhaps this is the beginning of another shortage due to world events. Who knows. One thing is for sure... Time will tell.

 

[AJC1]

For powder specifically, most of it is foreign made and literally you probably saw a boat load or several shipping containers move through the system. There is definitely a transportation aspect to all goods, and foreign products would appear more boom or bust as they are distributed.

 

[buck460XVR]

The sad fact is more folks are trying to enter into this hobby late in the game, and are snapping up all they can without regard to price (mainly because they did not experience the prices before the 'rush").

It's a sad fact that so many folks feel they need to get into reloading so late in the game. Few years back, when the first ammo shortages came about, it was on forums like this where long time reloaders bragged about how much ammo they had, how much cheaper it was and how easy it was to still get components, while factory ammo was non-existent. Now we are whining because we can no longer find components. Things that make one go........hmmmmm.

Back when I was a kid, I started to reload shotgun shells with an old Lee whack-a-mole. Thought it would be cool/fun. It was. Fact is, back then, factory ammo prices were pretty close to what the local Holiday Station sold Federal shells for. They were right down the block, were open 24/7 and always had a large variety in stock. It took under $3 to by a box of 16 GA. game loads. To reload, I had to take a trip to a larger town 45 miles away, and pocket up at least tens times that to buy supplies...something that not every 15 year old kid had in their pocket from washing dishes. Up till a decade or so ago, this is pretty close to how it was everywhere. Times have changed. We just need to get used to us and quit blaming the newbies.

 

[Yankee1986]

[The sad fact is more folks are trying to enter into this hobby late in the game, and are snapping up all they can without regard to price (mainly because they did not experience the prices before the 'rush").[/QUOTE]

I would be willing to bet that "newbie reloaders" make almost zero difference in the "component shortage" we are currently in.

 

[stonebuster]

I started reloading 16 months ago and have been watching component prices closely during that time. From what I've seen primers were outrageously priced (if you could find them) for a while then starting dropping and availability increased. Now they are starting to rise again. Cabelas for example have gone up on SPP from $79 to $89 locally and their Xtreme bullets have increased and they no longer ship free(or at all). With transportation costs rising with $120+/barrel oil and the supply/demand issues we already had I don't see it getting better anytime soon.

 

[Mark_Mark]

here’s what I learned from 2020-2022

Buy it if you need it, want it, or just got cash burning in the pockets. Cuz it not going to be there later. I just wish .22 LR was not 9mm prices (by weight)

 

[reddog81]

Where are these Genex and Murom primers for sale? For me it seemed like primers have been more available lately. Brownells has had primers in stock for multiple days at a time. Powder Valley has a variety of powders available. Don't use their "In Stock" button. That thing isn't very accurate and it hasn't been for a long time.

I think AJC1 is correct and there is just a natural ebb and flow to products reaching the market.

 

[fxvr5]

Midway has completely "turned off" the powder selections on their site as have several others (Powder Valley being another notable site). The only site currently listing more then several powders is Mid-South.

No clue what you're going on about. Midway's powders are up, Powder Valley's powders are up. There are various powders at Hodgdon.

 

[Mark_Mark]

I’m not buying components, just mags, everyone in WA is buying mags because of tge June 1st ban. Come to WA to find components, cuz we buying Mags

 

[bullseye308]

The new folks just getting into this are paying the asking prices because they don’t know that just a couple years ago prices were much less and availability wasn’t a problem. They are jumping in with both feet, paying the asking price just so they can shoot. When they see the asking price for loaded ammo versus the components costs, it is still cheaper, just not like what those of us that have been doing this for decades are used to.

Anyone doing this for 10+ years should know better and have a supply of components and doesn’t get much pity from me when looking for supplies. The new guys just starting, out of necessity I’ll help any way I can. Components can still be found here and there and I’ll help them locate what they need. Hardware too can be found with the 3P’s: Patience, persistence, payoff.

All components have gone up due to many factors, some political, most not. Mining for raw materials has seen much resistance lately, workers sick or locked down and not working, ignorant policy decisions unnecessarily increasing fuel prices that affect everything, demand skyrocketed beyond expectations, and many others not to be discussed here. All together it means prices will stay high, availability will stay low, and wait and see might not be the best answer anymore.

 

[dannyd]

For me it's a hobby, so I can always find something else to do. For the venders it a living, so I do feel sorry for them. Remember to stay within the fire codes for your area on quantity and storage because if you have an accident your hobby may bankrupt you.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

I know a few new gun owners but not one has any interest in handloading. They want box ammo and are willing to pay for it.
Now, as for component supplies and costs, inflation is eating this country alive and the Powers That Be are encouraging that with bad decisions which achieve the wrong goals and worse policies which serve the wrong public. Such is life. Been this way since Rome. Expect your dollar to buy less and expect there to be less to buy. No sense getting in a tizzie about it.

 

[Bearded Phil]

I know a few new gun owners but not one has any interest in handloading.

It's funny you say that, I consider myself a new owner (last two years-ish) and I almost immediately started looking into handloading when I moved up to rifles. With the cost of the cartridges I landed on and lack of availability it was no brainer.

Been loading for about a year now so I guess I'm one of those newbies who got in at a terrible time. But, all in all, it's kept me practicing for an affordable price and I picked up a new hobby that compliments the shooting and leather crafting. Have I over-payed for primers? Yea, sorry to say I had to just to be able to get started. I'm more savvy now. And while $80/1k is abnormal for those of y'all that have been doing this for years and years, I'd be happy to settle on that price IF I could go grab what I wanted when I wanted it. Not combing and waiting to snipe whatever became available.

FWIW, it doesn't really seem to me that the trend has changed much. Components got better on availability for a few months and its drying up again. So it goes.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

And while $80/1k is abnormal for those of y'all that have been doing this for years and years, I'd be happy to settle on that price IF I could go grab what I wanted when I wanted it.

Yup. Availability is more important than cost. Cheap but not to be found anywhere is far worse than on every shelf but at a high price.

 

[9mmepiphany]

The only effect I can see new reloaders having on the availability of supplies is keeping the prices at their current levels a bit longer. Only because they are buying at current prices…but they are unlikely to be over buying.

I thinking hoarders have slowed down, likely due to running out of money and not finding the number of panic buyers they thought would be out there…they discovered that the demand for reloading components is on the same scale as toilet paper.

My advice is the buy what ever you need to wait out the price fall or beat the price increases…whichever you believe will happen. Pay attention to factors that will affect availability. Remember that catching up with ammunition obligations is a higher priority than supplying components. It would be highly optimistic to expect prices to return to their pre-shortage levels…just based on inflation and cost of materials and transport.

If you’re seeing SPP at ~$80/k, you’re looking at a total cost, after adding shipping and HazMat, of $130/k. $130.k sounds like a lot, but it’s a lot less than the $200-$250/k folks were asking before.

For those interested, Genix is a very good SPP which has worked for friends who usually use Federal SPP in their tuned pistols

 

[9mmepiphany]

Yup. Availability is more important than cost. Cheap but not to be found anywhere is far worse than on every shelf but at a high price.

This reminds me of a discussion I was having with a friend about Genix SSP.

I saw a seller who had 500k and was selling them in 5k packs for $575…including shipping and HazMat. He was holding out for another site which had the same package listed at $214 + shipping +HazMat. The point was that the second site hadn’t had any in stock for half a year

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

For those interested, Genix is a very good SPP which has worked for friends who usually use Federal SPP in their tuned pistols

Ditto for "Wolf" large rifle primers (a.k.a. "KVB-7" or PMC). I use them wherever I would normally use a "Match" or "Military" primer. They're not "Magnum" but they do set off ball powders well and hold pressure well. If anyone runs across them and is wondering, Yes, they are good primers and Yes, you should jump on any deal you find with them.

 

[CoalCrackerAl]

This is not my 1st rodeo. I have learned to stock while the getting is good. I hope others learn from this one.

 

[Mark_Mark]

This is not my 1st rodeo. I have learned to stock while the getting is good. I hope others learn from this one.

some of use are on a bandwagon and not at the rodeo!

 

[Howa 9700]

Hard to explain what is going on around here. After months of off and on stuff showing up......but usual stock being 25 to 30 powders on any given day......as of today, Midway has no powders available. Something wrong about that.

Graf's in Mexico has two cabinets full of various powders......at least half or more shotgun powders. Not many rifle powders when I was last there. Called Full Circle in St. Charles and he said they just got a big shipment of rifle powders.......including Varget and H4350. Yet not a single pound of shotgun powder in the store and hasn't seen any for a while. Was told that after a 15 year break on shotshell loading, everybody and their brother are pulling out old loaders to get going again. Did have shotshell components most of last year.....now has none.

The Midway situation smacks of something going on in Europe along the lines of AMMO Inc donation. Perhaps a donation of all the powders in stock to a good cause?

 

[wcwhitey]

There are Pistol Powders like Win244 that has been working nicely for me. It’s available I just bought another two jugs. The first pound was used up developing standard range loads. I posted a bit about my load ups here. If anyone wants my favorites IM me (38 and .44 Special). .45 ACP will be next week.

I bought my last two pounds of Unique last year taking the last two my LGS had. If I wasn’t buying a gun he would have never given them up. Normal price too. Have not seen it advertised since. Always watched prices vary and shortages pop up. Never thought it would be more than a year for one of the most popular pistol powders to be unavailable.

 

[LaneP]

One of these years we have to get back to some semblance of normal again, but I can't remember a time before when shortages and price spiking was this bad, for all the reasons previously posted.

I recently found a 30+ year old lb. of H4227 I must have bought, put away and forgot about. That's going to get put to use some day, at this rate.

 

[Akula69]

No clue what you're going on about. Midway's powders are up, Powder Valley's powders are up. There are various powders at Hodgdon.

As of 2000 hours last night, neither one had any powders up. If they do today - great.

Stopped by the local Academy on the way to the hacienda tonight...they had butt loads of 2.23 and cheap (steel case) 9MM...but not much else. I did pick up a box of 7.62x39 projectiles (found them hidden behind some other crap on the shelf) for 43.00