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War strangling the economy???

Discussion in 'Legal' started by Navy joe, Mar 19, 2003.

  1. Navy joe

    Navy joe Senior Member

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    I mean I wonder, it seems everyone is in a somber mood tonight, people out eating were down and I went to the shooting range to work on shotgun reloading and found it less busy than it has been since at least August 2001. I mean nobody out spending money! What, is everyone sitting on their couch eating cheezy poofs and watching the war? Or are people really scared? How's life in your town?
     
  2. twoblink

    twoblink Senior Member

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    You know, don't want to "miss it" when the sky over Saddam glows :D

    Cheezy Poofs, and CNN...;) :p Or better yet, Fox if you can swing it.

    Here in Taiwan, they read about the war on the news just like they read about the weather, completely emotionaless...
     
  3. ENC

    ENC Member

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    War just makes for good TV
    everyone is just watching their TV's to see what happens next.
     
  4. ENC

    ENC Member

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    dang it has just began

    And i don't have cable oh well the networks will carry most of it.





    God bless our troops
     
  5. ahadams

    ahadams Member

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    'sokay unless we go to condition Red, Friday I get a new riot shotgun...even cleared it with management (my wife)! I'm doing my bit to help the economy!
     
  6. Raymond VanDerLinden

    Raymond VanDerLinden New Member

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    War doesn't strangle the economy

    It builds it, at least during the war.

    Check your history people, the Depression ENDED right after Pearl Harbor. The resession that had started after WWII ended with the start of the Korean Conflict, The seventies Resession started right after we left combat.

    The scare mongering from left wing papers is just that scare mongering. What was and has been Strangleing the Economy is the rummors of war, it's not knowing, and or being on the losing side. That is what is left from being hit and not having a clear enemy.

    Look for another jump in the market, fuel prices to hold or reduce, And more Jobs to open up.
     
  7. S_O_Laban

    S_O_Laban Member

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    Howdy Ray, you wouldn't be near Lamoni would you? Just curious, I went to school there :)
     
  8. Soap

    Soap Senior Member

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    Any time a government drags out the process of debating going to war, the economy suffers. Since the debate is obviously decided, look for the economy to pick up right after the conflict is over. After that, the market only has to resolve one more issue, then the market will truly be strengthened.
     
  9. CZ-75

    CZ-75 member

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    If we win quickly, I expect the economy to surge, like Daniel Flory said, after people's uncertainty shakes out.

    Funny how major business decisions are really about emotionalism, rather than cold, hard fact.
     
  10. Soap

    Soap Senior Member

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    CZ-75,

    Another thing that is funny is that if people who agree with us spread the word, collectively, we will create a self-fufilling prophecy.
     
  11. jmbg29

    jmbg29 member

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    The FoxNews agency was expelled from Iraq a month ago. Saddam determined that they weren't on his side. The alphabet channels, OTOH, got to stay. ;) :D :D
     
  12. Drjones

    Drjones member

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    Just heard on the radio that the dow is up for the 7th straight day.

    It has not done that for three years.

    I also read elsewhere that the markets' performance is a very good indicator of a lot of things, and the fact that the market is rising at the beginning of a war bodes well.

    :cool:
     
  13. Navy joe

    Navy joe Senior Member

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    Yeah, I know that wars are great for the economy, it's just that two things seem sick, one that everyone stays home to watch the war and two we have an economy driven almost entirely by consumer confidence. Guess I better buy stock in cheezy poofs...
     
  14. Soap

    Soap Senior Member

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    Navy Joe,

    Since all markets are just a collection of individual's assessments of value, the market will be based on the collective confidence and/or value assessments. An economy that is based this way is as old as stone.
     
  15. Billll

    Billll Member

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    At least one assesment I read (sorry, no cite) suggested that the depression didn't really end untill after WWII, since government projects building war material are functionally identical to printing money to pay people to pound sand, then dumping the sand in the ocean.
    The economy was put in the tank by Clintons last tax hike, something guaranteed to put the brakes on any booming economy, and I suspect won't come back untill we get some tax relief. An early end to the war will certainly help.
    Whatever it takes; I've been out of work way too long.
     
  16. longeyes

    longeyes member

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    If it weren't for war and the fear of war, we wouldn't be on the Internet right now. ARPNET, you know.
     
  17. JohnBT

    JohnBT Senior Member

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    Things seem to be pretty normal here. People are going about their business and the City Council is going to vote sometime soon on some anti-war statement that one of the yo-yo's submitted. Richmond City Council...the best comedy show on cable.

    Meanwhile, my safe was delivered 2 hours ago - am I glad I paid for inside delivery. They had a power tailgate, an electric forklift and a staircrawler. This was a planned purchase and not war related. OTOH, the store owner told me they sold 300+ safes last year and business is even better so far this year.

    We'll see how business is at the gun show next weekend.

    John
     
  18. Chris Rhines

    Chris Rhines Senior Member

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    Bill nailed it.

    Unfortunately, in order to fund the invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration is going to have to either jack up income taxes, or start printing out more money (thereby increasing the inflation rate and making our money worth less.) My bet is on the latter.

    If the USG ends up occupying Iraq on a long-term basis, well, we could be looking at another long depression.

    - Chris
     
  19. Soap

    Soap Senior Member

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    I would disagree. I believe that once the Iraq conflict is resolved, and once the shady accounting issue is resolved, we will experience a significantly forward moving economy. Why do you say that a depression could ensue?
     
  20. Waitone

    Waitone Senior Member

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    A traditional dance takes place toward the end of a president's first term. Head of the FED goes to the President and they talk out how much in inflate the currency supply. Availability of currency goes up, interest rate goes down, voters grin, politicians get happy and re-elected.

    IIRC only two presidents have refused the deal. Jimmuh Carter and George Bush XLI.

    There'll be inflation but not because of the war. It'll be because George XLIII learns his lessons faster than most and that he wants another 4 years.
     
  21. Fly320s

    Fly320s Senior Member

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    Not my economy.

    Mine is the best it has ever been. My company is profitable, I'm making more than I need, I'm getting married soon, looking for a house, looking for more guns.

    To steal a line from a cheesy 80's song, "My future's so bright, I gotta where shades."

    :D
     
  22. Chris Rhines

    Chris Rhines Senior Member

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    Three reasons -

    1 - If the Iraq invasion is resolved quickly, then the bills for the war will come due, and we'll be looking at either some higher degree of inflation, or a tax hike. Either way, the depression/recession/whatever we're in right now will probably continue on for a few years.

    2 - I doubt the Iraq invasion will be resolved quickly. I see the US maintaining forces in Iraq for a long time to come, and that takes money. The US will be paying out of pocket to rebuild the war damage in Iraq, and that takes money too. Then, there's going to be the intermitable low-level conflict between the Turks (I suspect they'll annex a piece of northern Iraq), the Kurds, the Shi'ites, the Sunnis, and all the rest of the interested power blocks. Put it all together, and we're looking (again) at tax hikes or inflation, and a much longer term of it.

    3 - The incalculable level of economic damage being caused by the Bush administration's domestic security measures and economic policies. Nationalizing the airline industry was just a start.

    - Chris
     
  23. Chris Rhines

    Chris Rhines Senior Member

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    Waitone - Here's an interesting project for you. What is the current inflation rate in the United States, today? Last year I've found records for was 2000, in which it was 3.4% (which means the actual rate was probably more like 6%.)

    - Chris
     
  24. Soap

    Soap Senior Member

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    Chris,

    I see your points. However government spending is part of the GDP...and GDP is generally the acid test of an economy. When G goes up, the GDP goes up. While it completely sucks for my economy, i.e., my checkbook, it still makes the entire economy go up. We can actually see here in a few years to see if the real GDP will actually rise (since its adjusted for inflation).

    We can wager say a steak dinner whenever we go to train at one of the major training centers. You in? :D

    As for #3...don't get me started...argh.
     
  25. Ebbtide

    Ebbtide Member

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    FYI: Dow has best week since 1982, up 13% in last two weeks, 8% this week alone. Gold dips below $330.00 an ounce, and oil prices falling fast. War must help the economy:confused:
     

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