Three reasons -
1 - If the Iraq invasion is resolved quickly, then the bills for the war will come due, and we'll be looking at either some higher degree of inflation, or a tax hike. Either way, the depression/recession/whatever we're in right now will probably continue on for a few years.
2 - I doubt the Iraq invasion will be resolved quickly. I see the US maintaining forces in Iraq for a long time to come, and that takes money. The US will be paying out of pocket to rebuild the war damage in Iraq, and that takes money too. Then, there's going to be the intermitable low-level conflict between the Turks (I suspect they'll annex a piece of northern Iraq), the Kurds, the Shi'ites, the Sunnis, and all the rest of the interested power blocks. Put it all together, and we're looking (again) at tax hikes or inflation, and a much longer term of it.
3 - The incalculable level of economic damage being caused by the Bush administration's domestic security measures and economic policies. Nationalizing the airline industry was just a start.
- Chris