What is the chance of SCOTUS accepting an AWB / High Capacity Magazine case this year?
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Yes, and vacated the inferior court ruling as well.
If I understand this correctly, you're asking if the lower court rules following the Bruen criteria and overturns the Maryland AW ban, will it be the law of the land. The answer is no, it will only be in effect within the jurisdiction of the court that makes the ruling. If it's the 4th Circuit, that would be the states of MD, WV, VA, NC, SC and Washington DC. However, that ruling could be cited in other jurisdictions. And a split between circuits usually results in the case being passed to SCOTUS to resolve.
TTv2
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The question is regarding THIS YEAR and AFAIK there are no AWB or Magazine cases going before an Appeals Court this year, most of them are tied up in District courts or are have yet to get a court date for Appeals courts, let alone a decision.
My thinking is 2025 will be the earliest that SCOTUS gets a case.
My thinking is 2025 will be the earliest that SCOTUS gets a case.
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LiveLife
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And today Illinois AW/magazine ban blocked by district court for consolidated cases - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-aw-magazine-ban.905531/page-12#post-12614688
Our chances are looking better and better.
Our chances are looking better and better.
CapnMac
Member
I see that. But, the IL case seems to be hurtling through the courts. Especially as two different Federal District courts have ruled in opposition to each other in just Illinois. The IL cases are going to get mixed up with the "way" they were enacted as much as the obvious over-reach restricting RKBA.
The CA cases are "mature" enough that they could "jump" out of Circuit Court and into SCOTUS purview in what could seem like an eyeblink. Many of those case are near a decade old. They have had more law piled upon them, too, so that could be a whole house of cards, and that collapse would be soul-crushing in Sacramento (and likely go un-noticed in the rest of the State).
The cases in WV and MD may also "stir up" 4th Circus, too. Which could suggest that they make definitive ruling in "our" favor. Which puts the "antis" in a bad place. If 4th Circus slams the door in their faces, they can only appeal to SCOTUS. And, most of those outcomes are bad for "their side." As in failing to "make cert" is as bad as a definitive decision against the appeal is as bad as having the case dismissed.
Which is also kind of where "we" are with 9th Circus, which seems to be agreeing more and more with Benitez. And a defeat of CA in 9th affects OR ans WA, too (and HI). And, if Newsom or Insley insist, then they have to play the SCOTUS roulette.
I'm not sanguine, but I am cautiously optimistic.
lilguy
Member
Illinois court just put a hold on our assault weapon/ magazine ban state wide. Gun shops around me are working overtime selling their inventory this weekend. Anticipating an attempt by the state to get a stay of the order Monday by a higher court. Maybe this could go all the way.
Would be a good case because it includes Assault Weapons and High Capacity Magazines not just Assault Weapons.
lilguy
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The latest stay against the law. I understand the state has filed an appeal.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/11j33qn--8I7JrsCs2mI0SZTjsWZ8Pc5V/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/11j33qn--8I7JrsCs2mI0SZTjsWZ8Pc5V/view
lilguy
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Its a free for all out there.
JTHunter
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Judge McGlynn also made two pointed references to IL-ANNOY's Concealed Carry timetable and the SA admitted that it wasn't as fast as it should be. (The judge has been waiting on HIS CCP since September 2022.)
The second reference was about "pistol braces" and how they infringe on people with disabilities, while referencing ATF with their decision on that.
The second reference was about "pistol braces" and how they infringe on people with disabilities, while referencing ATF with their decision on that.
LiveLife
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It's a different judicial world post Bruen.
Justice Amy Barrett, who oversees appeals from the 7th Circuit, just asked city of Naperville which banned AW/magazine to respond by May 8th for Emergency Appeal by National Association for Gun Rights (NAGR)/National Foundation for Gun Rights (NFGR) - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-aw-magazine-ban.905531/page-12#post-12617328
And National Association for Gun Rights v City of Naperville (IL AW/magazine ban) case was just filed in January of this year.
It's a different judicial world post Bruen.
Justice Amy Barrett, who oversees appeals from the 7th Circuit, just asked city of Naperville which banned AW/magazine to respond by May 8th for Emergency Appeal by National Association for Gun Rights (NAGR)/National Foundation for Gun Rights (NFGR) - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-aw-magazine-ban.905531/page-12#post-12617328
And National Association for Gun Rights v City of Naperville (IL AW/magazine ban) case was just filed in January of this year.
Does this mean SCOTUS is considering granting cert in this case?
A split in circuit decisions greatly improves the chances of SCOTUS taking a case, but it's not required. SCOTUS has already accepted the Maryland AW ban case, Bianchi v Frosh, and sent it back down to the circuit court to be reconsidered by the Bruen criteria. There is a "race" to see which AW ban case will be the one they actually make a final ruling on. Bianchi has a head start, but Miller v Bonta in California is also a contender and more recent bans in IL and WA also have a chance. If Bianchi doesn't come back with a result that religiously adheres to the Bruen criteria, it's almost a sure thing SCOTUS will overturn it. It's just a question of whether some other AW ban case gets accepted and ruled on first.
It's a different judicial world post Bruen.
Justice Amy Barrett, who oversees appeals from the 7th Circuit, just asked city of Naperville which banned AW/magazine to respond by May 8th for Emergency Appeal by National Association for Gun Rights (NAGR)/National Foundation for Gun Rights (NFGR) - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-aw-magazine-ban.905531/page-12#post-12617328
And National Association for Gun Rights v City of Naperville (IL AW/magazine ban) case was just filed in January of this year.
Maybe, but it's a bit early for that. It would be unusual for SCOTUS to get involved in a case that's not yet settled at the lower levels. Just last January, they turned down similar request in a case about NY gun law:
Supreme Court Again Rejects Request to Block New York Gun Law - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
If they do, it doesn't mean that they would deny an appeal once the case is completed at the lower level.
JTHunter
Member
There is also the possibility that the SC might combine all 4 state cases (MD, CA, WA, & IL) as they are all dealing with AWBs and magazine bans.
LiveLife
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Since justice Thomas clearly stated in Bruen ruling that Second Amendment is not a second class right, Supreme Court will treat 2A cases post Bruen in the same light as First Amendment cases before permanent enforcement came from federal/states laws and "modern" forms of free speech like text/email being protected is no longer in question.
Same will happen for Second Amendment as "first class right" and permanent enforcement will eventually happen but in the mean time the antis don't like it.
Too bad ... so sorry.
Same will happen for Second Amendment as "first class right" and permanent enforcement will eventually happen but in the mean time the antis don't like it.
Too bad ... so sorry.
AlexanderA
Member
There is currently a campaign to hound Justice Thomas out of office. If this succeeds, and Biden is able to name his replacement, the balance of the Court suddenly changes (4-4, with CJ Roberts in the middle). All the gun-rights progress since Bruen is out the window. So, if we don't get an AWB decision this year, we may never get one. Keep your fingers crossed.
LiveLife
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Not going to happen due to separation of powers as framed by the founders.
Executive/legislative branches cannot impose/pressure the judicial branch and justices won't tolerate it as they must remain independent to do their job of being the final judge for "We the People" when executive and legislative branches pass and sign unconstitutional laws.
That's why justice Gorsuch said to watch the separation of powers when "Originalist" justices joined the SCOTUS bench - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...on-the-second-amendment.856201/#post-11231970
"I am an originalist ... We have a written constitution that our founder wrote down ... They made a charter among 'We the people' ... This is what we agreed to as to what the government's powers are and what they are not ..."
When asked what James Madison (who helped write the Constitution/Bill of Rights) would say about today's government, "Well, I think one thing he might tell us is to pay attention to the separation of powers ... the truth is that our rights, including the separation of powers, are only as good as the people who want to keep them there." - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...on-the-second-amendment.856201/#post-11324026
When asked what James Madison (who helped write the Constitution/Bill of Rights) would say about today's government, "Well, I think one thing he might tell us is to pay attention to the separation of powers ... the truth is that our rights, including the separation of powers, are only as good as the people who want to keep them there." - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...on-the-second-amendment.856201/#post-11324026
The ban is back in effect.Our chances are looking better and better.
TTv2
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Thomas isn't going anywhere, he'll be there until he dies.
LiveLife
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You meant "retires"?
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